The Union Forever: A TL
- Thread starter Mac Gregor
- Start date
Lets hope that a war between the United States and their allies and the Technocratic nations never comes to pass, as its a war that will probably end in a nuclear holocaust.
Now would be a good time to start an ABM system. As IIRC there hasn't been an ABM traty
Saphroneth
Banned
I realize it's outrageously late to raise this kind of criticism, but I thought I'd point out that
Sorry about interrupting, back you go to nuclear war or nuclear war accessories...
(ED: As I realize this could be construed as rude, I've put most of it in the spoiler tags.)
- on June 4-5 1862 - the only units OTL missing at Richmond from those that fought the Seven Days were those in the Valley (Jackson and Ewell), and that TTL Ewell joins Johnston for the battle. Meanwhile, on the Union side, Pope's army didn't yet exist (being formed on the 26th of June OTL) and McCall's division had not yet arrived on the Peninsula (they arrived during the second week of June).
What this means is that:
1) There is no Pope's army. The units which formed it are occupied dealing with Jackson marching back and forth in the Valley - but realistically not risking himself, because he doesn't have Ewell.
2) The Union army is weaker than the army which fought the Seven Days, to the tune of McCall's division (roughly 9,000 enlisted PFD, or 6,600 effectives).
3) The Confederate army is weaker than the army which fought in the Seven Days, to the tune of Jackson's division (roughly 9,600 PFD, or 6,800 effectives). Note that Jackson's described in the TL as having a "few remaining thousands" - I'm leaving his division at nearly 10,000 to make the point clear - but that Jackson's division appears to have totally vanished from the narrative upon the death of the commander.
4) The Seven Pines casualties have not happened. (5,000 Union, 6,000 Confederate).
I assume that in fact either Jackson or Ewell would be added to the army outside Richmond if they'd been withdrawn from the Valley, as to do otherwise would be entirely counter to the point of putting them in the Valley in the first place (which was to draw off Union resources and prevent McClellan being reinforced).
Thus the strengths of the two armies are roughly:
Sumner: 96,200 PFD, 68,750 Effectives
Confederates: 108,620 PFD, 78,000 Effectives (with Ewell but not Jackson, or with a shrunken Jackson's division but not Ewell)
Paralyzing McClellan doesn't change this detail (that this is a period the Confederate army is larger) and indeed without either Jackson or Ewell the Confederates still have a small advantage (it's about 102,000 PFD for the Confederates without Ewell or Jackson), while having about 15,000 PFD to delay the army under Pope which doesn't exist yet.
n.b. Confederate strengths PFD are from Harsh.
Two posts later we come to the battle of the Chickahominy, in which Sumner reaches the Confederate works and attacks for a couple of days. During this battle the Confederates hold out (which is not surprising) before counterattacking the Union left flank, but we're also told that the Union has their left flank south of the Chickahominy and presumably the rest of their army north.
This makes no sense.
The Chickahominy river runs north of Richmond, and as such the Union left flank is attacking the Richmond defences alone. With only Keyes present in the left flank as described there's about 18,500 PFD (assuming 4000 of the 5000 Seven Pines casualties were to Keyes) trying to push through the Richmond defences (before the battle starts) against well over ninety thousand PFD defending Richmond. Frankly Keyes shouldn't have a corps left after attacking for two days!
Historically when McClellan approached Richmond the quandry he had was that his supply line ran north of the Chickahominy but he needed to attack Richmond on the south of the Chickahominy (because that's where Richmond is, it's over three miles south of the river at the closest point - Mechanicsville). Here it appears Sumner has managed to do the opposite and attack Richmond while most of his army is still north of the Chickahominy, which is very impressive.
Of course, a look at the map as of Seven Pines answers the question - the Union dispositions are not far off how they were as of Seven Pines, with Keyes south of the river in command (but the 2nd Corps and the other units which historically reinforced him are not there, being up near Hanover Court House attacking the 'Richmond defences' from the wrong side of the river, and Keyes should probably be destroyed). This also indicates what the true import of the Chickahominy battle is, as it's essentially Seven Pines but with a Union counterattack. The problem is that this is almost impossible to succeed with, as the Richmond defences are very strong forts and as there's simply been no time to bring up the Union's heavy artillery - and, furthermore, the bridges built by the historical McClellan's engineers (same men as Sumner has) were actually in such a poor state after the storms that one of them collapsed under General Franklin and dropped him in the river personally.
What we have here is essentially the Union breaking easily into Richmond against a defending force which is at the least equal in number, without the benefit of artillery preparation (there hasn't been time to set them up) and by way of bridges which work perfectly TTL though they collapsed on the same date OTL. Furthermore, we do not have the historical orders of the 26-29 May which diverted McClellan from crossing the Chickahominy to instead operate against the rail lines north of Richmond.
The divergences which take place here appear to be:
McClellan breaks his back.
Jackson's troops are ahistorically thinned out, he makes an attack he did OTL only because of the strength of his force, and dies. (Separate PoD.)
Pope's Army of Virginia is formed several weeks early. (Separate PoD)
The Chickahominy river apparently runs through Richmond, or at any rate it's possible to attack the Richmond defences while north of the Chickahominy. (Geological PoD? OTL the outermost works were all south of the Chickahominy)
The pontoon bridges over the Chickahominy are intact. (Separate PoD.)
There are no orders to go after the rail lines north of Richmond instead of crossing the Chickahominy. (Separate PoD, probably)
And the Confederate forces around Richmond are considerably reduced compared to OTL, as otherwise Johnston would outnumber Sumner and have crushed Keyes fairly easily. (Possibly separate PoD, we're not told just how many troops are delaying Pope but it's a common misunderstanding.)
Frankly, I'm not sure why McClellan had to break his back - all the other changes don't stem from it and if they'd been applied to him he'd probably have won.
What this means is that:
1) There is no Pope's army. The units which formed it are occupied dealing with Jackson marching back and forth in the Valley - but realistically not risking himself, because he doesn't have Ewell.
2) The Union army is weaker than the army which fought the Seven Days, to the tune of McCall's division (roughly 9,000 enlisted PFD, or 6,600 effectives).
3) The Confederate army is weaker than the army which fought in the Seven Days, to the tune of Jackson's division (roughly 9,600 PFD, or 6,800 effectives). Note that Jackson's described in the TL as having a "few remaining thousands" - I'm leaving his division at nearly 10,000 to make the point clear - but that Jackson's division appears to have totally vanished from the narrative upon the death of the commander.
4) The Seven Pines casualties have not happened. (5,000 Union, 6,000 Confederate).
I assume that in fact either Jackson or Ewell would be added to the army outside Richmond if they'd been withdrawn from the Valley, as to do otherwise would be entirely counter to the point of putting them in the Valley in the first place (which was to draw off Union resources and prevent McClellan being reinforced).
Thus the strengths of the two armies are roughly:
Sumner: 96,200 PFD, 68,750 Effectives
Confederates: 108,620 PFD, 78,000 Effectives (with Ewell but not Jackson, or with a shrunken Jackson's division but not Ewell)
Paralyzing McClellan doesn't change this detail (that this is a period the Confederate army is larger) and indeed without either Jackson or Ewell the Confederates still have a small advantage (it's about 102,000 PFD for the Confederates without Ewell or Jackson), while having about 15,000 PFD to delay the army under Pope which doesn't exist yet.
n.b. Confederate strengths PFD are from Harsh.
Two posts later we come to the battle of the Chickahominy, in which Sumner reaches the Confederate works and attacks for a couple of days. During this battle the Confederates hold out (which is not surprising) before counterattacking the Union left flank, but we're also told that the Union has their left flank south of the Chickahominy and presumably the rest of their army north.
This makes no sense.
The Chickahominy river runs north of Richmond, and as such the Union left flank is attacking the Richmond defences alone. With only Keyes present in the left flank as described there's about 18,500 PFD (assuming 4000 of the 5000 Seven Pines casualties were to Keyes) trying to push through the Richmond defences (before the battle starts) against well over ninety thousand PFD defending Richmond. Frankly Keyes shouldn't have a corps left after attacking for two days!
Historically when McClellan approached Richmond the quandry he had was that his supply line ran north of the Chickahominy but he needed to attack Richmond on the south of the Chickahominy (because that's where Richmond is, it's over three miles south of the river at the closest point - Mechanicsville). Here it appears Sumner has managed to do the opposite and attack Richmond while most of his army is still north of the Chickahominy, which is very impressive.
Of course, a look at the map as of Seven Pines answers the question - the Union dispositions are not far off how they were as of Seven Pines, with Keyes south of the river in command (but the 2nd Corps and the other units which historically reinforced him are not there, being up near Hanover Court House attacking the 'Richmond defences' from the wrong side of the river, and Keyes should probably be destroyed). This also indicates what the true import of the Chickahominy battle is, as it's essentially Seven Pines but with a Union counterattack. The problem is that this is almost impossible to succeed with, as the Richmond defences are very strong forts and as there's simply been no time to bring up the Union's heavy artillery - and, furthermore, the bridges built by the historical McClellan's engineers (same men as Sumner has) were actually in such a poor state after the storms that one of them collapsed under General Franklin and dropped him in the river personally.
What we have here is essentially the Union breaking easily into Richmond against a defending force which is at the least equal in number, without the benefit of artillery preparation (there hasn't been time to set them up) and by way of bridges which work perfectly TTL though they collapsed on the same date OTL. Furthermore, we do not have the historical orders of the 26-29 May which diverted McClellan from crossing the Chickahominy to instead operate against the rail lines north of Richmond.
The divergences which take place here appear to be:
McClellan breaks his back.
Jackson's troops are ahistorically thinned out, he makes an attack he did OTL only because of the strength of his force, and dies. (Separate PoD.)
Pope's Army of Virginia is formed several weeks early. (Separate PoD)
The Chickahominy river apparently runs through Richmond, or at any rate it's possible to attack the Richmond defences while north of the Chickahominy. (Geological PoD? OTL the outermost works were all south of the Chickahominy)
The pontoon bridges over the Chickahominy are intact. (Separate PoD.)
There are no orders to go after the rail lines north of Richmond instead of crossing the Chickahominy. (Separate PoD, probably)
And the Confederate forces around Richmond are considerably reduced compared to OTL, as otherwise Johnston would outnumber Sumner and have crushed Keyes fairly easily. (Possibly separate PoD, we're not told just how many troops are delaying Pope but it's a common misunderstanding.)
Frankly, I'm not sure why McClellan had to break his back - all the other changes don't stem from it and if they'd been applied to him he'd probably have won.
Sorry about interrupting, back you go to nuclear war or nuclear war accessories...
(ED: As I realize this could be construed as rude, I've put most of it in the spoiler tags.)
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Sorry for the delayed response. Thank you for your comments Saphroneth, its never too late for a critique. You seem to have a great grasp on Civil War history. Assuming you points are accurate I don't really have a rebuttal. However, I certainly don't plan on overhauling the POD. My question to you is... Do you see the Union winning the Peninsula Campaign under any circumstances?
Saphroneth
Banned
Yes, at least three even without removing McClellan or changing Confederate plans.
(1) McClellan gets all the troops he wanted from the beginning (so McDowell's corps, Wool's division and possibly Blenker's division). He can turn Gloucester Point with an amphibious landing, thus breaking through Yorktown weeks earlier, and all else being equal batters through the defences of Richmond in May or June. (Though not in early June itself, the rains were terrible.) A variant on this leading to the same timing of the result is that McClellan has McDowell's corps complete with shipping in early May, as this way he can land an entire corps at Eltham's Landing in one lift and "bag" the Yorktown garrison or some of it - OTL he had only one division of shipping and so his buildup at Elthams was too slow.
(2) McClellan is sent McDowell's corps in early June like he was promised, either overland or by sea. This means he can protect his flank when he advances on Richmond. If the CSA launches the Seven Days battles they run into about five divisions instead of two, while McClellan emplaces artillery in the last few days of June and blasts his way into Richmond in early July.
(3) McClellan is sent the reinforcements he was promised post-Seven Days, which amounted to about 55,000 AP&A (so another ~20,000-25,000 effectives). Thus now actually with a reasonable numerical advantage, he advances up the James clearing Confederate batteries and mounting regular approaches on Petersburg. Union gunboats come with him, and he goes post by post up the James until he reaches Richmond, probably some time in August or September.
Those all rely on more troops to McClellan, but there is another option which doesn't:
(4) The line doesn't crack at Glendale, possibly because Franklin gets enough sleep. McClellan shifts supply to Harrisons Landing and fortifies successfully, using the Chickahominy and White Oak Swamp as a flank guard, and Pope comes down through northern Virginia.
With McClellan right there less than a day's march from Richmond Lee can't possibly divert enough force to actually stop Pope, and by mid-July both Union armies are able to catch Richmond in a vise.
So yes, the Peninsular Campaign is eminently winnable, the problem was simply getting McClellan enough resources (or, of course, whoever replaces him). During the Seven Days, in Effectives terms (and correcting a couple of mistakes made by Livermore in his conversions) there were about 70-80K Union "Effectives" - obviously the number goes down as casualties are suffered - and at Glendale when the Union had 73,500 Effectives the Confederacy had about 91,300. Killing/crippling McClellan doesn't change that the Confederacy really did have a preponderance of resources available during the Seven Days, and indeed McClellan's performance was very good - he's one of the only Union generals able to fight regular approaches (and perhaps the only one able to do both that and control an army of over 100,000 Present), and he was good enough at it that Lee felt that "McClellan" plus "supplies" near Richmond was something to be avoided at all costs.
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2016: Foreign Developments
2016
Foreign Developments
Mars viewed from the Undaunted
Foreign Developments
Mars viewed from the Undaunted
In early January, the United States Space Agency launched its first manned mission to Mars. Three astronauts aboard the Undaunted left Earth orbit spending over 200 days traveling to the Red Planet beating a larger German expedition that left a month and half later. Damion Graham of Dakota became the first person to walk on the Martian surface stating “A brave new frontier in the human experience has opened“ to the largest television audience in history. The seven man German crew led by Siegfried Jung touched down a few weeks later. The Americans only spent 35 days on the surface before beginning the 404 day return trip. The Germans, with their track record of extended off world habitation proven on the moon, dug in for a nearly 500 day stay. Together, these missions were heralded as monumental achievements and the beginning of the Interplanetary Age.
In the Netherlands, political tensions continued to rise as Prime Minister Dreesens' government explored proposals granting independence to Aruba and greater autonomy to other parts of the Dutch Caribbean. Still smarting over the loss of Suriname, which joined the League of American Republics early that year, the German led Association of European States loudly protested the prospect of losing another outpost in the Western Hemisphere. The specter of German interference only emboldened Dutch liberals who increasingly called for a reevaluation of the nation's relationship with their more powerful neighbor.
In April, British Prime Minister Hunter’s coalition passed the Indian Ocean Territorial Reorganization Act a sweeping piece of legislation designed to greatly reduce the United Kingdom’s cost in maintain its disparate possessions. The act established two new dominions, the Comorian Commonwealth and the State of the Mascarene Islands. Controversially, it transferred the Andaman Islands to the Commonwealth of Madras which caused a minor row with Burma. Australia gained control of Christmas Island and the Keeling Islands. The Seychelles and Chargos Archipelagos remained British colonies.
During the summer, the Polish film Zorza was released to international acclaim. Director Ula Pokorny, artfully described the harrowing account of a pro-independence family during the winter of 2001, and their hardships faced near the Russian border. Unsurprisingly, the film was banned inside of the Russian Empire.
Over the course of three days in July, a string of terrorists attacks rocked the German provinces of North and South Cameroon. Targets included a Lutheran Church in Jaunde, an Imperial Army barracks in Fredrickstadt, and two beer gardens in Douala resulting in 113 fatalities. While the region was no stranger to violence, the scope and brazenness of these strikes was unprecedented. The militant Cameroon Freedom Corps (KFK) claimed responsibility and reiterated their demands for a united and independent Cameroon free from Die Weißen. German authorities redoubled their efforts to combat the KFK, but the organization's senior leadership was believed to be sheltered and supported by Augustin Mihambo’s Congo Republic.
On October 26, New Zealand Prime Minister Lawrence Cartwright’s Liberal government honored its promise to its National Party coalition partners and held a referendum to become a republic. Despite earlier polls showing a much closer contest, in the end 63% of New Zealanders voted to keep the monarchy. Queen Victoria II and her husband Prince August received a warm welcome when they visited Wellington later that year.
In the Technate of China, the Directorate of Health stepped up the campaign against traditional medicine. While the government’s claim that Chinese traditional medicine was unscientific had merit, its heavy handed methods attempting its eradication alienated many, especially in rural areas.
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I reckon the Second Great War will be the one.
And it will be America vs China. The two superpowers of the world.
Great to see Mankind visiting Mars! 
This is likely to contribute to an African theatre of war, when problems with the Technocracy finally end in war.
Great to see Mankind visiting Mars!
This is likely to contribute to an African theatre of war, when problems with the Technocracy finally end in war.
If a war is coming, it might be a kind of Anti-Imperialism World War, with the Technate of China and it's allies supporting independence movements across Africa, and possibly the Caribbean.
Perhaps ratherly democracies vs. authotarian nations. Altough Russia is bit odd expection when it surely will join to war against China.