The Union Forever: A TL

[Inquisitor Tolkien]

Well the overall situation on the High Seas is especially lopsided now in favor of the Alliance. The Mediterranean is still an Entente lake, but much of France's oversea colonies are effectively cut off, in the New World and the Far East, at least.

The situation on land, however, is somewhat more favorable for the Entente, at least at present. Neither the United States nor Britain have yet the reserves or system in place to effectively match the numbers that are being thrown around on the continent, at present. There may be a BEF analogue sent to Prussia, though, but expect it to be spent at a similarly alarming pace as it was in OTL.

Prussia at present is in a similar situation that France was in, in OTL's WWI. That is, having their key industrial centers either occupied or under artillery range. Its really a small miracle that Prussia has still been able to fight on. Have the French crossed the Rhine yet? If yes, then its hard to see how Prussia, with as long a front its fighting on, will be able to hold on for too long. Remember, the larger the front, the less dense soldier concentrations will be throughout the front, which means the less it will resemble OTLs Western Front.

As for the economic situation: France is still not in the same position as Germany was OTL, considering the Med. is still a French lake (barring those few RN bases). Similarly, blockading France in the Atlantic is a much more daunting prospect than blockading Germany. Definitely still possible, but it will consume alot more naval resources, in the form of destroyers, light cruisers, and perhaps a few capital ships. Also, it seems to have taken a minor miracle (several minor miracles, in fact) to keep the minor Balkan powers (Serbia and Greece in particular) in the war for so long. They should be on the verge of economic collapse at this point, considering their inability to sustain their own war effort at this point of time..

So in short, the war isn't over yet. Great Britain and the United States have entered the fray, but it will take them a year or two, closer to two methinks, for them to make decisive contributions to the land war.

 

[Alternatehistoryguy47]

The UK and the US will either go for a D-day style landing on France, or ship troops directly into Prussia, like they did with France in OTL.

 

[Inquisitor Tolkien]

The UK and the US will either go for a D-day style landing on France, or ship troops directly into Prussia, like they did with France in OTL.

The landing is out of the question. The technology and doctrine required to successful ones won't be developed for a decade or two longer, not to mention the glaring differences between 1941 third-rate German forces in occupied France and 1910ish France.

The most likely option, the shipping troops over to Prussia part, won't have much of an impact yet. At present, both the British and American Armies are volunteer forces, without conscription. They thus don't have the system in place (mobilization tables and plans, oversized officer class, etc.) nor pool available to call upon large numbers of trained reservists to either raise new units rapidly, or replace and replenish depleted units. This is very possible to change, as new volunteers may very well flock to the recruiting stations, but it still takes time, energy, and manpower to accomplish this, and the forces they'll raise will be very green, especially in comparison to the professionals in the standing army, or the armies of the Entente and Alliance on the continent (think the Americans in 1917-1918; Belleau Wood was not a brilliant show of American martial prowess, no matter what the Marines say <__<). Moreover Britain and the United States have their own objectives besides this, as well as their own bases/colonies/borders to defend and man. So the initial Expeditionary Forces will be...fairly limited.

 

[Mark 4 Morrel Barrel]

Oh Ive got an idea. We could see the French realizing that they need to knock out Prussia now launch an offensive which is basicly Operation Michale renanmed for France's main saint. They attack and make ground and are only stop due to major breakthroughs being patched up by the arriving BEF and later on by the US MEF.
'
Hell yeah lets give TTL a Marine's Belleau Wood!

 

[wolf_brother]

<snip>

I strongly disagree. Russia will look to cut a peace with Japan quickly, so that she may focus her forces fully on European affairs. As much Russo-Japanese animosity as there is, Europe is more important to Russia than Manchuria ever could be.

EDIT: Reading over some of the comments, I believe many readers of this TL are suffering from Francophobia. France, Austria-Hungary, the south German allies and the Ottomans all are in positions of power that the Alliance forces can do little about right now. Britain is effectively cut off from the European continent, and even a BEF landing to support Prussian forces won't be able to make the same commitment as in OTL's WWI due to the increased distance. The British after all just can't very well ship troops right across the Channel into France, and likewise the ITTL French Imperial Navy is not OTL's German High Seas Fleet; most importantly its not going to be trapped into the Baltic, thus its open to attack, defend, etc against British naval forces.

Regarding France's colonies; I'm not sure how one could expect them all to fall like dominoes when the Mediterranean is effectively a French Lake. Not only could French forces ship directly from southern France to Algeria, or through the Suez, but the Ottomans as allies means the Entente forces control both sides of the Red Sea as well, meaning that any possible raid, strike or offensive to conquer or damage the Suez Canal is purely ASB fantasy.

Even more importantly is that while Britain and America have joined the war effort, they are not at war with Japan, meaning that the Japanese continue to have free reign in Far East Asia and the Pacific. This means that if Russia does not make Peace soon she shall continue to be pounded by all the primary Entente members from all sides.

In general I agree with Shadow Knight & Inquisitor Tolkien. IMHO I see the war as such; British BEF and American AEF support shipped the long route across the North Atlantic, to Britain, across the English countryside to be shipped again from Edinburgh to Hamburg. American expedition also captures French Guiana and other French holdings in the Caribbean and Western hemisphere. British colonial forces in Africa making moves on French Madagascar and Somalia, as well as attempting to consolidate its territories in West Africa; this in particular may or may not be successful though. The big moves will be further East, where British Indian forces will move into French Indochina, and Australian regiments into French New Guinea.

On the Entente side France, Austria-Hungary and the South Germans will be pushing even harder into Prussia in order to bring the war to a decisive end. This will be especially true if Russia continues to fight both her European foes and Japan, allowing the European Entente forces, especially Austria-Hungary, to commitment more forces to the German fight. The Entente forces have the upper-hand here until BEF and AEF reservists can start to arrive in significant numbers, so the Entente have potentially weeks until the first British and America troops set foot on Europe depending on how the Naval situation goes in order to press the attack to a final conclusion. Also expect joint Franco-Ottoman forces to either blockade, invade, or bombard the shit out of British and Greek holdings in the Mediterranean, specifically British Cyprus, Malta and Gibraltar. France especially must focus on bottling up Gibraltar to prevent Alliance forces from getting into the Med. Greece likely falls. The Ottomans will be turning their attention somewhat southward. I doubt they'd give up on the Caucasus Offensive or in Greece, but the Sublime Porte will commit significant forces to finally rid itself of the British presence in Oman, Yemen, Kuwait and crush the British support of the House of Saud.

In general American (and British) entry into the war doesn't equal the instant knock-out that OTL's World War I was. While Britain and America are both industrial titans, America in particular is very green when it comes to Industrial Warfare and lacks the necessary number of troops required for instant action, even with Lincoln's preparations. As well TTL's Imperial France is not Imperial Germany, and with her domination of Africa north of the Congolese jungle, the French Lake of the Mediterranean, her European and Ottoman allies, and her control of all significant European industrial belts including the (in)famous Rhineland the Entente forces have a chance of victory. Even without, however, there will be no crushing end to Imperial France through joint-Alliance forces. At the very worst Russia and Japan sign peace, the Ottomans pull out of the war to deal with Lawrence of Arabia style British back Arab uprisings, and France loses perhaps a third of her colonial holdings, with the rest returning to pre-war lines (re: Europe). The Southern German states likely form some style of French dominated, non-Hapsburg but Austrian-backed Bund for future defense against Prussia.

The best the Alliance can hope for is to knocked one or more of France's allies out of the war, with an overall goal of Prussian annexation (I mean, protection..) of Bavaria and the other South German states to act as shield and sword for British affairs on the continent, and to physically divide the Imperial French and Austrian and forces.

Basically you have to look at what the major players want;
Japan wants Manchuria and Korea
The Ottomans want Greece, Serbia, a stronger border in the Caucasus against Russia, and the removal of British involvement in her periphery.
Austria-Hungary wants to knock-out Prussia as a rival to the claim of a united Germany, a free hand in Italy once again, and strong allies to help in a fight against Russia.
France wants to dominant her Western peripheral states; South Germany and North Italy, while also neutering Prussia as a threat.
The South Germans want independence, but they want more to free themselves of Prussia influence.

Russia wants Manchuria, Korea, and a favorable situation in Europe; this means either a strong Prussian ally, or a weakened Entente.
Prussia wants to establish itself as the German power, and weaken Entente powers surrounding her.
Britain wishes to reign in Imperial French powers, a favorable situation in Europe; this means either a strong Prussian ally, or a weakened Entente.
America simply wants to retain the balance of power; this means a return to the antebellum for the most part.

 

[Shadow Knight]

Mac, a question. With all this fighting over the globe did Great Britain increase defense spending at all before they entered the war?

I'm not expecting them to plop a million man army bristling with armaments into Prussia once the war starts, but with naval combat occurring in the North Sea for some time now I'd expect them to be a little more prepared than OTL.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

I strongly disagree. Russia will look to cut a peace with Japan quickly, so that she may focus her forces fully on European affairs. As much Russo-Japanese animosity as there is, Europe is more important to Russia than Manchuria ever could be.

Russia would have done it if Britain and the USA had not joined the war. But they did and gave Russia and its hard pressed allies the long-term perspective to win the war against all enemies.

EDIT: Reading over some of the comments, I believe many readers of this TL are suffering from Francophobia. France, Austria-Hungary, the south German allies and the Ottomans all are in positions of power that the Alliance forces can do little about right now. Britain is effectively cut off from the European continent, and even a BEF landing to support Prussian forces won't be able to make the same commitment as in OTL's WWI due to the increased distance.

You are right. Some people underestimate the Entente and overestimate the USA and the British Empire.
Still, the war entries of these powers did really turn the mid/long-term odds aganist the Entente.

The British after all just can't very well ship troops right across the Channel into France, and likewise the ITTL French Imperial Navy is not OTL's German High Seas Fleet; most importantly its not going to be trapped into the Baltic, thus its open to attack, defend, etc against British naval forces.

I don't see why the combined forces of the British Home fleet and the remaining fleets of Prussia and Russia should not be able to keep the increasingly stretched Imperial French navy out of the North Sea.

Regarding France's colonies; I'm not sure how one could expect them all to fall like dominoes when the Mediterranean is effectively a French Lake. Not only could French forces ship directly from southern France to Algeria, or through the Suez, but the Ottomans as allies means the Entente forces control both sides of the Red Sea as well, meaning that any possible raid, strike or offensive to conquer or damage the Suez Canal is purely ASB fantasy.

Any non-Mediterranean colonie of France is undermanned, highly vulnerable to amphibic assaults and without much perspective to be reinforced by forces from the metropolitan France.
Why shouldn't I expect them to fall quickly?

Even more importantly is that while Britain and America have joined the war effort, they are not at war with Japan, meaning that the Japanese continue to have free reign in Far East Asia and the Pacific. This means that if Russia does not make Peace soon she shall continue to be pounded by all the primary Entente members from all sides.

Neither A-H nor the Ottoman Empire can muster enough forces to force Russia to abandon the Far East theater. They have already tried massive offensive into the Russian Empire and failed to achieve anything deciding.

In general American (and British) entry into the war doesn't equal the instant knock-out that OTL's World War I was.

I was not an instant knock-out IOTL. The war continued more than one and a half years.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Mac, a question. With all this fighting over the globe did Great Britain increase defense spending at all before they entered the war?

I'm not expecting them to plop a million man army bristling with armaments into Prussia once the war starts, but with naval combat occurring in the North Sea for some time now I'd expect them to be a little more prepared than OTL.

You are correct in believing that the British Military is in better shape than OTL. Remember that the British have just won the Second Anglo-Boer War (1905-1908) so they have a large number of battle hardened veterans. Furthermore, the Great War has been raging for about a year and a half and Britain has been making considerable military and naval preparations in case they got drawn into the war.

I would also like to add amidst all the absolutely great speculation/discussion on this thread (And Please Keep it Coming) that the British and American Militaries ITTL are proportionally better prepared than they were in OTL when Britain (1914) and America (1917) entered WWI.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Personally, I'm more interested in the aftermath of the War. Though to be fair, the Second French Empire is more powerful than OTL (they have my country TTL , among other colonial holdings) which means that Britain has its work cut out for it.

Though with a more respectable guy as POTUS (thank goodness it's not Wilson!) I think the aftermath is still pretty interesting.

 

[Seraph]

@wolf_brother
I doubt America would truly want the status quo. I would think it would want France out of Western hemisphere and possibly out of the East Asia.

The US may want a more Republican China like OTL and Japan unilateral take over of Korea has also earned it suspicion from the United States regarding its intentions.

 

[wolf_brother]

Russia would have done it if Britain and the USA had not joined the war. But they did and gave Russia and its hard pressed allies the long-term perspective to win the war against all enemies.

The US may want a more Republican China like OTL and Japan unilateral take over of Korea has also earned it suspicion from the United States regarding its intentions.

None of the other powers are at war with Japan. Japan is not in any sort of tangled alliance system, unlike the rest of the great powers. Japan is, at best (worst), a co-belligerent with the Entente against Russia. Britain is highly unlikely to go to war with Japan due to the ongoing Anglo-Japanese Alliance. For this reason, and because the US has no conflict of interests with Japan, as well as a lack of a casus belli, the US is not going to declare war against Japan either.

My point regarding Russian peace with Japan still stands. Either Russia accepts Japanese superiority in the Far East, to be challenged again at a later date, or she continues to fight a two-front war when her Prussian ally is on the bring of collapse.

I don't see why the combined forces of the British Home fleet and the remaining fleets of Prussia and Russia should not be able to keep the increasingly stretched Imperial French navy out of the North Sea.

Because the British Home Fleet will be busy frantically attempting to keep the French out of the channel. As well it has already been established that the French Navy has a strong contingent of subs, which they shall now use against any transport of British or American troops to the Prussian front.

Any non-Mediterranean colonie of France is undermanned, highly vulnerable to amphibic assaults and without much perspective to be reinforced by forces from the metropolitan France.
Why shouldn't I expect them to fall quickly?

I'd sure be interested in seeing the British pull of an amphibious assault in TTL's French Equatorial Africa

Asides from the colonies I have already listed (Coastal West Africa, Somalila, Madagascar, Indochina, French New Guinea and French Guinea), the other French colonial holdings are simply too removed to be within British reach, or are positioned as such that the British have no real chance to take such a territory. You seem to be mislead about the sheer size and scope of the African continent, and believe that troops from British Cameroon can simply march across the Sahel and the Sahara conquering willy-nilly as they please.

In addition, neither the British nor the Americans are going to be placing much effort into taking core French colonial territories. Britain isn't going to be able to, nor shall she want, to attempt to ship large numbers of troops through the French infested Atlantic just so they can make an attempt to drive into French West Africa. Similarly Britain's Eastern territories will be focusing on taking the French colonies that are within their sphere (and outside of the reach of French or Entente aid), while also battling the Ottomans.

The Americans aren't interested in sending troops to liberate African colonies, period. Especially considering that America entered the war in order to maintain the European balance of power, which means attempting to resupply Prussia.

Neither A-H nor the Ottoman Empire can muster enough forces to force Russia to abandon the Far East theater. They have already tried massive offensive into the Russian Empire and failed to achieve anything deciding.

The threat to Russia is that her one and only European ally, Prussia, will soon fall unless she receives much needed aid. As the British and Americans are going to take weeks, possibly months, before they can start arriving in significant numbers it will fall onto Russia's shoulders to send reinforcements. The small trickle she has sent forth so far ITTL has not been, nor will not continue to be, enough to stop the Entente offensive.

As well I would point the Ottomans increasing control of key mountain passes in the Caucuses as "anything deciding."

I doubt America would truly want the status quo. I would think it would want France out of Western hemisphere and possibly out of the East Asia.

Post #608 indicates that the US entered the war almost solely upon American fears of either side achieving a total victory. French domination of the European continent and elsewhere is not acceptable, while at the same time an Alliance victory resulting in a world "without America’s “moderating republican influence” the post war world would be dominated by the vengeful states of Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain."

---

You are correct in believing that the British Military is in better shape than OTL. Remember that the British have just won the Second Anglo-Boer War (1905-1908) so they have a large number of battle hardened veterans. Furthermore, the Great War has been raging for about a year and a half and Britain has been making considerable military and naval preparations in case they got drawn into the war.

I would also like to add amidst all the absolutely great speculation/discussion on this thread (And Please Keep it Coming) that the British and American Militaries ITTL are proportionally better prepared than they were in OTL when Britain (1914) and America (1917) entered WWI.

Could we get an 'officially' assumption about the size of scope of the British and Americans militaries TTL? Better than when they entered IOTL's WWI is a very broad brush. Would you say America's forces are similar to OTL's late 1918, when America's industrial titan was at its peak? Or more akin to late 1917, when the US was much larger than when she entered the war, but still organizing and working to achieve parity with her European allies and enemies?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Post #608 indicates that the US entered the war almost solely upon American fears of either side achieving a total victory. French domination of the European continent and elsewhere is not acceptable, while at the same time an Alliance victory resulting in a world "without America’s “moderating republican influence” the post war world would be dominated by the vengeful states of Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain."

---

Which is actually standing for "the United States will not want a world where it is a Great Power and not have a part of the world to itself?"

 

[Seraph]

Post #608 indicates that the US entered the war almost solely upon American fears of either side achieving a total victory. French domination of the European continent and elsewhere is not acceptable, while at the same time an Alliance victory resulting in a world "without America’s “moderating republican influence” the post war world would be dominated by the vengeful states of Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain."

And I doubt they'll let the French stay in South America. So a status quo is unlikely.

And the French does have colonies in the Pacific. The Philippines stand out in particular and the United States is in a better position then Britain to take them(US does have Samoa and presumably Hawaii).

While the US won't go to war with Japan(unless something unexpected happens), this could help curb their future influence. And this can also put the US in position to be better able to influence China.

 

[Alternatehistoryguy47]

so far, this TL is turning out to be a much better world than OTL

is it wrong to wish that McClellan had wound up in a wheelchair now?

 

[Ze Kaiser]

And then France was like, "Oi! Brazil! Keep them busy in them Americas!"

And then Brazil was like, "WTH, amigo?"

And then America was like, "Monroe Doctrine!" and tackled Brazil.

And the Great Britain was like, "About that time, eh chaps?" and politely kicked Brazil in the pants.

And then Argentina was like, "Righto, amigo!" and joined the dogpile.

And then the United States, Great Britain, and Argentina proceeded to beat Brazil like a drum.

 

[VictorLaszlo]

Austrian succession - what happened to crown prince Rudolf

What happened to Crown Price Rudolf of Austria in TTL. Had he still been alive by the time of Emperor Franz Josefs death, he would have been the first in the line of succession, his uncle Maximilian could in this case only have become Prince Regent until Rudolfs coming of age (if this would not have been thwarted by Maximilians mother, Archduchess Sophia, who, despite loving Maximilian dearly, strongly opposed his liberal leanings).

Did Rudolfs mother, Empress Elisabeth in TTL not arrive in time from her cure on Corfu after being informed by aide Joseph Latour about the extreme abuses Rudolf had to suffer from his tutor Major General Leopold Count Gondrecourt (like being drilled for hours in heavy rain at the age of 6 to 7 and beaten bloodily when showing any signs of weakness) to stop this by her Ischl ultimatum from August, 24th 1865.

When she arrived in OTL, the boy was indeed in a rather poor shape, both physically - weakened to a point, that physicians thought he might be suffering from diphtheria - and mentally - to a point that today would be considered a post traumatic stress disorder - and Joseph Latour had informed the Empress, because he was worried for the very life of the sensitive Crown Prince.

 

[jlckansas]

You have the British Army in India and the Indian army to attack into the Middle East and Africa. With the RN able to get sea control in the Indian Ocean without too much trouble, it would be able to close the horn of Africa, reinforce the Gulf states and invade into South and Central Africa. You don't need to conquer the entire area just take the port cities on the coast to start. Any troops on the interior will be cut off from supplies. I don't know if the French posess any commander that would be the equal to Von Lettow-Vorbek there but that would be the only problem. Then with the Horn of Africa in possession you could work up to the south end of the Suez Canal. You don't have to take the canal just stop up one end initially.

 

[Mac Gregor]

What happened to Crown Price Rudolf of Austria in TTL?

.

Good Question. I thought I had written this when discussing Franz Joseph's death, but i must have forgotten. Sadly Crown Prince Rudolf was mortally wounded by the same bullet which killed his father after it struck the 7 year old child in the abdomen on November 29th, 1866.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

So who's Kaiser TTL?

 

[Mac Gregor]

So who's Kaiser TTL?

The current Prussian monarch is the 77 year old King Fredrick III.