The Ummayads win the siege of Constantinople (674-678). What can they realistically conquer?

If the Ummayads had won the Siege of Constantinople (674-678), what and how much territory could they realistically have conquered?
 
Thrace and parts of Greece at the very least. I don't see the Eastern Mediterranean islands holding out for much longer either. I imagine the Byzantine Empire would essentially relocate to Carthage or Sicily ITTL and possibly do a better job of opposing westward Arab expansion. I'm not sure the Umayyads would want to grab more of the Balkans given how poor and backwards it was, but they could try. They never did all that well against Turkic nomads IOTL though.
 
The Bulgars on the Danube would certainly give the Umayyads just as much trouble as they gave the Byzantines, I’m sure they could conquer the surrounding Thracian countryside and the islands dotting the Aegean Sea - but expanding into Macedonia and inner Greece would certainly be difficult for them.
 
I imagine a Islam more influenced by the orthodox church. Maybe the Islam in long term absorb the orthodox christian structure with priest, monks and etc (I don't, know more names of christian clerigy in English). Certainly the Greek like the Persian was adopted by the Byzantine islamics, principaly after the Arab-Greek chism. I don,t cred the orthodox Byzantines survives more time in Carthage, possibly they are conquested by Arabian, Berber, Greek islamics or, with a good look and division with Arabians and greeks, the normans.

In more long term I don,t know how time the Byzantine Caliphate resists. The Turks, converted by Arabian Islam, are a one great possibly of the conquest and destruction of the empire. Maybe de varangian/Rus islamics(or Jews or orthodox) or slavs enacting like the Turks in abassid Caliphate. "A Saqaliba Basileos of the Rum."

About Spain, are two possiblys: 1) the islamics not invaded because they are concentrate in conquest the Balkans;
2)the Arab/Berber invaded the Spain because they no are more relation with the greek campaign. I personally prefer the second option: two Muslim empires on the Mediterranean. Maybe together a Greek crisis (bulgarian, Rus, varangian, Turks invaded, Frank crusades, etc.) more Greek emigrate to Al Andalus.


*I don,t speak English very well, but don't exists a good page of alternate history in my language.
 
The Bulgars on the Danube would certainly give the Umayyads just as much trouble as they gave the Byzantines, I’m sure they could conquer the surrounding Thracian countryside and the islands dotting the Aegean Sea - but expanding into Macedonia and inner Greece would certainly be difficult for them.

The bulgars probably will convert to islam as well

The Bulgars only crossed the Danube in 680.
 
The Bulgars only crossed the Danube in 680.

Immediately following the PoD set by OP, the Bulgars arrived on the Danube and became well entrenched and powerful players in local power dynamics. With a complete collapse of Byzantine authority, I have no doubt the Bulgars will be able to establish themselves almost unopposed over the Romans and Slavs north of the Balkan Mountains.

You’re right though, the Bulgars hadn’t arrived by the start of the PoD laid out by OP, for some reason I had confused it for the second siege in 717.
 
A lot more. Byzantium served as a place for ritualized raids undertaken by the Caliph or those close to him for much of the next two centuries. This was because it was rich and worth plundering rather than trying to govern and control against a determined and centralized foe with a professional military.

If this is not the case, and the frontiers of the Arab World now brush up against the Danube, its likely they set their sights on Italy instead, and adopt a conquest first attitude, as Italy is not easily gotten to and left (being a peninusla).

But they also will have the kinds of vast wealth that would make funding further conquest possible, particularly in the far East, where the first invasions of Afghanistan and Khorasan were relatively unsuccessful, which therefore made the ultimate incursion into India also less successful as more resources were needed for pacification efforts. A sustained Umayyad (or whoever succeeds them) project in India would, logistically, be very difficult, but the wealth to carry it out would be found in a conquest of Constantinople.

However, I am interested in what the ramifications are on Islam. Islam as we know it today was relatively identifiable from 692, after the defeat of Ibn al-Zubayr and the construction of the Dome of the Rock, onwards, albeit to differing degrees depending on the Caliphate in question and their policies in regards to legal and religious authority versus the Islamic Scholars of the time. The butterflies here are enormous. You have added tens of millions of non-Muslims to an existing massive empire where Muslims are already a tiny minority at the time. How do their polices change as a result? The constant tension between Arab tribes in the garrison towns might lessen, as they realize they have the potential to be utterly swamped. My assumption is that the process of Muwalladun assimilation speeds up rapidly as some of the requirements are lifted, but this is bound to cause heterodox religious practices to multiply.

And keep in mind, the period of conquest here is BEFORE Abd al-Malik, and therefore before the decision to Arabicize the bureaucracy of the empire and make Arabic the lingua franca of the Empire (at least ideally speaking). Much of the day to day inscriptions from this period were done in Greek, as they were relying on carryover bureaucratic practices and families from the Byzantines. I can't see this lessening with Anatolia and Greece under Arab rule.

Essentially, I see it possible that the Umayyad Caliphate would be gradually Hellenized, and that the reforms of Abd al-Malik, on everything except coinage, would be butterflied. Now, this would not be a smooth or seamless process, of course. But it is hard to see the Caliphate that existed in 692 that allowed for his reforms to be carried out being similar enough in this case.

I would also say that Ibn al-Zubayr's effort, if it goes as OTL, would have a more successful result, if the center of power of the Umayyads shifts northwards and westwards. Their power base in Syria meant that it was easy for them to campaign in Iraq, and cut him off from support further to the East, where some sympathy existed for him, and thereby isolate him. If the Umayyads have more resources spread throughout Anatolia and Greece, maybe this does not happen.
 
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An Ummayd Constantinople would probably lead to an Islamic Russia.
However, I'm skeptical that it would lead to an Islamic Western Europe, I doubt that the Ummayads could project their power so far away.
 
First and foremost it is almost impossible for the arabs to take the city for many reasons

But for the scenarios sake

Islam would change and the orthodox Curch would be intermingled with it

Anatolia would be like Persia it converted to Islam but did not adapt Arabic culture since it had one already

The Bulgars are fresh of the sttepe by 680 so it's more likely that they would comvert to Islam

With out the Byzantines the Muslims now have 100% control over the medditerrian

So an invasion of Italy is very very likely

North Africa migth be different with the caliphate ocuupied with Bulgaria

King kusaila could gather more troops and use relgion as a rally cry for the surviving Byzantine forces in Africa and it would mean that north Africa takes longer to conquer
 
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An Ummayd Constantinople would probably lead to an Islamic Russia.
However, I'm skeptical that it would lead to an Islamic Western Europe, I doubt that the Ummayads could project their power so far away.
Not likely the Rus where a Forrest tribe not stteppe tribe
They would most likely be Roman catholics
 
First and foremost it is almost impossible for the arabs to take the city for many reasons

But for the scenarios sake

Islam would change and the orthodox Curch would be intermingled with it

Anatolia would be like Persia it converted to Islam but did not adapt Arabic culture since it had one already

The Bulgars are fresh of the sttepe by 680 so it's more likely that they would comvert to Islam

With out the Byzantines the Muslims now have 100% control over the medditerrian

So an invasion of Italy is very very likely

North Africa migth be different with the caliphate ocuupied with Bulgaria

King kusaila could gather more troops and use relgion as a rally cry for the surviving Byzantine forces in Africa and it would mean that north Africa takes longer to conquer

I don't think that it's almost impossible for the Ummayds to take it in the first siege, according to LSCatillina, in https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...siege-of-constantinople.424830/#post-15502207, there would be a chance for the siege to succeed if Constantine IV was defeated before the walls.

Not likely the Rus where a Forrest tribe not stteppe tribe
They would most likely be Roman catholics

The Rus converted to Orthodoxy because of their close relations with the Byzantine Empire. If the Ummayds conquered Constantinople, it would be them that would establish close relations with the Rus. Thus, the Rus would convert to Islam. You should understand the geopolitical context.
 
I don't think that it's almost impossible for the Ummayds to take it in the first siege, according to LSCatillina, in https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...siege-of-constantinople.424830/#post-15502207, there would be a chance for the siege to succeed if Constantine IV was defeated before the walls.



The Rus converted to Orthodoxy because of their close relations with the Byzantine Empire. If the Ummayds conquered Constantinople, it would be them that would establish close relations with the Rus. Thus, the Rus would convert to Islam. You should understand the geopolitical context.

Problems with that the caliphate may not even have these same relationship with the Rus
2) the geographic context

Most of the meat of these regions came from pork
And the preservation of wheat was done by alcohol
Things prohibited by Islam
So unless the Rus want to strave to death they are not converting
 
I don't think that it's almost impossible for the Ummayds to take it in the first siege, according to LSCatillina, in https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...siege-of-constantinople.424830/#post-15502207, there would be a chance for the siege to succeed if Constantine IV was defeated before the walls.



The Rus converted to Orthodoxy because of their close relations with the Byzantine Empire. If the Ummayds conquered Constantinople, it would be them that would establish close relations with the Rus. Thus, the Rus would convert to Islam. You should understand the geopolitical context.
In this world it's easy to predict which convert
Forrest and agricultiral tribes convert to chirstianity
Steppe nomad tribes convert to Islam
The Rus fit the first critieria not the second
 
There are a bunch of imponderables resulting from this.

How are the new conquests organized?

1. Does the Caliphate relocate to Constantinople or to some alternate location to the northwest, like Allepo or Rhodes?

2. Are the new conquests organized into a powerful emirate that the Caliphate loses control of?

3. Does Constantinople simply become an important frontier fortress?

How does this affect the Ummayyads and Islam internally?

1. Are the Ummayyads replaced earlier than IOTL (about 750 AD)?

2. Are the Ummayyads replaced later IOTL?

3. Does Islam split between a western and eastern Caliphate as a result of the new conquests?

4. How does Islam itself change?

What is the impact on the Western Mediterranean?

1. Does a rump Byzantine state rally in North Africa, southern Italy, and Greece? Presumably they make deals with any or all of the Lombards, Berbers, and Bulgars when to bolster their position?

2. Do not only the Berbers but other peoples in the Med, ike the Lombards and/ or Visigoths, convert to Islam due to the prestige/ shock of Constantinople falling?

3. What happens to the Roman Pope?

What are impacts to the North and East?

1. Do any or all of the Rus, Bulgars, or Magyars convert to Islam?

2. With Anatolia open to expansion, is there less expansion in Central Asia and India?

3. Does whoever supplant the Abbasids come from the new frontier province of Anatolia instead of Khurasan?

Given how little we know about the siege and you can do anything from an Islam wank to a different Islam with different borders.
 
There are a bunch of imponderables resulting from this.

What is the impact on the Western Mediterranean?

2. Do not only the Berbers but other peoples in the Med, ike the Lombards and/ or Visigoths, convert to Islam due to the prestige/ shock of Constantinople falling?

What are impacts to the North and East?

1. Do any or all of the Rus, Bulgars, or Magyars convert to Islam?

I think, that, the Rus and the Bulgars would convert to Islam. I don't think, that, the Magyars and the Lombards would convert, though. As for the Visigoths, IOTL, many of them converted due to the Ummayad conquest of the Visigothic Kingdom.
 
I think, that, the Rus and the Bulgars would convert to Islam. I don't think, that, the Magyars and the Lombards would convert, though. As for the Visigoths, IOTL, many of them converted due to the Ummayad conquest of the Visigothic Kingdom.
I desagree
I think that the Rus will not covert to Islam
Because in. Those northern regions in that time most meat came from pork and preservation of wheat was via alchol things prohibited by Islam
Unless the Rus want to starve I don't see them converting

and the magyars would convert they are a steppe tribe and Islam usually wins in converting those
 
I desagree
I think that the Rus will not covert to Islam
Because in. Those northern regions in that time most meat came from pork and preservation of wheat was via alchol things prohibited by Islam
Unless the Rus want to starve I don't see them converting

and the magyars would convert they are a steppe tribe and Islam usually wins in converting those

This was more in the germanic regions, where the forests were really dense, in the region where the Rus lived was less dense, and such uses were less necessary, so have chances that they would convert, especially if you consider the geopolitic situation
 
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