The U.S.S. Maine Explodes on U.S. Soil in 1898

I do not think that the USA would ally with Germany.

In this scenario, the USA gets Spain's Caribbean possessions and Germany gets the Pacific only to lose it to Japan two decades later. Cuba would still be free.

USA would still have Hawaii and Midway and Samoa. Would still have "Open China" policy. Would still have strong Pacific Fleet. Might even still forward base it to Pearl Harbor prior to WWII and place sanctions on Japan.
 
I do not think that the USA would ally with Germany.

In this scenario, the USA gets Spain's Caribbean possessions and Germany gets the Pacific only to lose it to Japan two decades later. Cuba would still be free.

USA would still have Hawaii and Midway and Samoa. Would still have "Open China" policy. Would still have strong Pacific Fleet. Might even still forward base it to Pearl Harbor prior to WWII and place sanctions on Japan.

If Japan has the Philippines they might not even invade China. That's a huge POD. The twenty-one demands might not end up happening, Japan might not intervene in Siberia if she's busy spending dollars garrisoning the Philippines. The whole of post-war Asia is changed.
 
Germany had an eye at expanding in the Pacific at Spain's expense. If the USA and Spain do not go to war in the spring/summer of 1898, it may be likely that the Philippines and Guam wind up in German hands only to wind up Japanese in WWI. WWII still occurs, may be same as OTL. USA does not have Philippines or Guam, reinforces Wake to defend against invasion.
Unlikely to be the same as OTL. Japan attacked the US mainly because the Philippines sat alongside their LoC with Guam positioned across the LoC with the Fleet Base at Truk. Absent that Japan has no reason to declare war on the US, save to preempt the Two Ocean Navy, the US could enter the war later but would not have the motivation of OTL
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Unlikely to be the same as OTL. Japan attacked the US mainly because the Philippines sat alongside their LoC with Guam positioned across the LoC with the Fleet Base at Truk. Absent that Japan has no reason to declare war on the US, save to preempt the Two Ocean Navy, the US could enter the war later but would not have the motivation of OTL
Could Japan have still wanted to conquer Malaysia and/or the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) in this TL, though?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Of course, to assume a broadly-similar-to-OTL WW1 and WW2 from a PoD even this far back gets tricky. For example, a US which hasn't faced a Philippine Independence Movement might be more easily coaxed into joining WW1 early (if WW1 happens at all) with the offer of a colonial reward.
 
Could Japan have still wanted to conquer Malaysia and/or the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) in this TL, though?
If they are still embargoed then yes, Malaya and the DEI have natural resources Japan needs, and assuming the sort of situation that gets them embargoed, they would need those resources and be willing to fight a war

Of course as Saphroneth says butterflies, even WWI could be very different
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If they are still embargoed then yes, Malaya and the DEI have natural resources Japan needs, and assuming the sort of situation that gets them embargoed, they would need those resources and be willing to fight a war

If so, couldn't the U.S. still go to war with Japan in this TL?

Of course as Saphroneth says butterflies, even WWI could be very different

Completely agreed.
 
If so, couldn't the U.S. still go to war with Japan in this TL?

Completely agreed.
Maybe? It depends on who is President, their attitude, and the attitude of Congress to provoking Japan, and Japan's ability to rein in its mid and junior ranking officers, plus the exact reason why Japan is striking South and the geopolitical situation in Europe
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Worth noting that the Japanese turn to hard militarism was in large part provoked by their junior officers feeling they were gypped out of the proceeds of WW1 combined with the termination of the Anglo-Japanese alliance due to American pressure. A Japan which just got the Philippines might not go hard-militarist at all, it's certainly quite a reward!

ED: actually, there's an interesting TL. Equal fleet size for Japan as for the US and UK, in return for which the A-J Alliance gets terminated...
 
the war was not at all inevitable. Sans the spark that set it off (the Maine) it is quite easy to avoid it.

that said, the US was pretty gung ho for war, so even if the Maine went differently, they probably would have a reason to go to war. But, the Maine made a really convenient and easy reason.
 
Yes, Japan conquered the Philippines because it lay in their path to the DEI. But the main goal of the IJN was to eliminate the one main threat to their empire, the United States Pacific Fleet.

In this scenario where Japan already has the Philippines, they are still set on creating the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere. This will put them in competition with the USA. The USA would work more closely with Britain, perhaps even having joint bases in the Pacific. Even without the Philippines, the USA still wants an open door in China and does not like the Japanese attempt to close it. So the USA would still economically sanction Japan and move the US Pacific fleet to Hawaii.

Japan sees this as a very aggressive. They see the only obstacle in their way to complete domination is the US Pacific Fleet. There you go, second order counterfactual ....
Unlikely to be the same as OTL. Japan attacked the US mainly because the Philippines sat alongside their LoC with Guam positioned across the LoC with the Fleet Base at Truk. Absent that Japan has no reason to declare war on the US, save to preempt the Two Ocean Navy, the US could enter the war later but would not have the motivation of OTL

Yes, Japan conquered the Philippines because it lay in their path to the DEI. But the main goal of the IJN was to eliminate the one main threat to their empire, the United States Pacific Fleet.

The ultimate goal that Japan had to starting the war by attacking Pearl and then attempting all in at Midway was to eliminate the US Pacific Fleet. The USN was the only threat that could contain the Japanese. Japan equated to elimination of American naval power to bringing the USA to the peace table where Japan gets to keep its possessions and resume trade with the USA.

In this scenario where Japan already has the Philippines, they are still set on creating the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere. This will put them in competition with the USA. The USA would work more closely with Britain, perhaps even having joint bases in the Pacific. Even without the Philippines, the USA still wants an open door for trading in China and does not like the Japanese attempt to close it. So the USA would still economically sanction Japan and move the US Pacific fleet to Hawaii.

Japan sees this as very aggressive. They see the only obstacle in their way to complete domination is the US Pacific Fleet.

But of course this is if the butterflies for 40 years after the Philippines are captured by the Germans in 1898 are the same.
 
Japan attacked Pearl Harbor to buy time to create the defensive perimeter necessary to bleed the US enough that it would sue for a peace leaving Japan in control of what it conquered without interference. Note that the Pearl Harbor strike was controversial among the Japanese command structure and they expected very heavy losses, up to an entire carrier division, losses which could prove problematic later. With Guam and the Philippines their defense perimeter is essentially complete (Wake is not that large, the US did not think it worth retaking OTL). They do not need to declare war on the US, they can now afford to wait until the US declares war on them, if it does in fact decide to declare war on them (internal political factors may prevent this).

Japan consistently had a plan for dealing with the US Navy, it was entirely defensive, it involved letting the US advance across the pacific, weakening it with air attacks, submarines and light units all the while and letting it get exhausted, and then when it gets close to Japanese home waters, hit it with everything they have. Letting the US declare war does not prevent this from being implemented and probably makes it more likely to get the desired result if successful, plus there is the chance of no war with the US at all
 
It's good to know that the events of 1942 are locked in place for Japan with a POD in 1898.
The political makeup of Asia would be completely overturned, the Japanese descent into militarism was by no means set in stone, nor was the intervention in Manchuria and later China. Without a Japanese Korea they may never even launch into a Chinese escapade. Maybe the Filipino rebellion sours them on future colonial expansion, maybe they get sucked into propping up the Far Eastern Republic, maybe there is a Russo-Japanese War and they get their teeth kicked in. It boggles the mind that America and Japan are doomed to go to war with a POD FORTY YEARS prior to their historical conflict.
 
It's good to know that the events of 1942 are locked in place for Japan with a POD in 1898.
The political makeup of Asia would be completely overturned, the Japanese descent into militarism was by no means set in stone, nor was the intervention in Manchuria and later China. Without a Japanese Korea they may never even launch into a Chinese escapade. Maybe the Filipino rebellion sours them on future colonial expansion, maybe they get sucked into propping up the Far Eastern Republic, maybe there is a Russo-Japanese War and they get their teeth kicked in. It boggles the mind that America and Japan are doomed to go to war with a POD FORTY YEARS prior to their historical conflict.
I think everyone in the conversation has acknowledged that. Still that doesn't prevent us from debating the specifics of that unlikely eventuality
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It's good to know that the events of 1942 are locked in place for Japan with a POD in 1898.
The political makeup of Asia would be completely overturned, the Japanese descent into militarism was by no means set in stone, nor was the intervention in Manchuria and later China. Without a Japanese Korea they may never even launch into a Chinese escapade. Maybe the Filipino rebellion sours them on future colonial expansion, maybe they get sucked into propping up the Far Eastern Republic, maybe there is a Russo-Japanese War and they get their teeth kicked in. It boggles the mind that America and Japan are doomed to go to war with a POD FORTY YEARS prior to their historical conflict.
Wasn't Korea already under de facto Japanese control as early as 1895, though?
 
If Germany gets the Philippines, Guam, etc, there's a LOT less cause for a war between Japan and the USA; there' actually a natural break between them in mid-Pacific. Sure, either could attack the other, but WHY?
 
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