RousseauX
Donor
In the immediate aftermath maybe but on the long run the south is the one fucked because they are relying on a single commodity export nation like a modern petro-state, except for it's easier to Egypt or India to produce cotton to out-compete the south than it is for a random country to find oil to outcompete a petrostate, the entire country is going to be highly vulnerable to price shocks on cotton and we know from otl that those economies are not exactly stable.Like shit, probably.
Alright, this isn't just gonna be a SHITpost. Let's take a deep look into this.
Alright, it would literally look like shit, but first we have to understand what shit looks like. So, what we're looking at is a USA that just lost its most major source of cotton to fuel their factories: the South. This unquestionably results in a catastrophic economic depression in the North, and due to the absence of tariffs (most likely, since they hated tariffs) in the South, quite possibly an economic boom down there in contrast. Not trying to go Turtledovey here, but the South would be besties with Britain and France until they tell the South to get rid of slavery; they either continue being friends if the South drops slavery, or they drop the South for the North if they refuse to let it go, and the South likely turns to a new ally: Germany.
This is just the gist of it: North is fucked, South is doing great.
Actually come to think of it is this even true on the short term? Why would the south not sell cotton to the north? They need $$$ after all.
In the short term maybe but on the long run the lack of tariffs means the south is unlikely to industrializeand due to the absence of tariffs (most likely, since they hated tariffs) in the South, quite possibly an economic boom down there in contrast.
So the north will weather a recession and go on to industrialize, while the south is locked into unfavorable patterns of trade, under your scenerio the south remains agrarian and the north industrialized
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