The Two Davids: An Alternate 2015 Election TL

[Airesien]

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BBC Television Centre, 7 May 2015
21:55

David Dimbleby: Good evening and welcome to our election centre. It has been an extraordinary campaign, the culmination of five years of an unprecedented coalition government which has seen British politics rocked to its core. And we are set to find out everything that has happened in this election, what your votes have decided and as to who will become Prime Minister. Will it be the incumbent, David Cameron, returning triumphant? Will it be David Miliband succeeding in driving him from power? Or will it be a hung parliament, with days of coalition building and deal making behind the doors as each side desperately tries to build up enough support in the new House of Commons to claim victory and form an operating government?

If neither David Cameron nor David Miliband can command a majority on their own, will there be a place in government for one of the smaller parties? Could Nick Clegg secure another five years at the cabinet table? Or will Nicola Sturgeon's SNP be there instead? Perhaps, even, Nigel Farage and UKIP. If margins are very close, could one of the Northern Irish parties be involved? There are 650 constituencies, each one electing an MP to the new House of Commons – and you can bet that each one of them will be crucial in deciding the outcome tonight.

21:59

DD: And so, we better get started. First, with our exit poll, which even now I can't reveal legally until Big Ben strikes ten o'clock. Remember, this is an exit poll, very carefully calculated, not necessarily on-the-nail. But here it is. Ten o'clock.

Big Ben strikes ten

And what we are saying is. LABOUR are the largest party. [pause] And here are the figures, which we have. Quite remarkable this exit poll. We are saying Labour have won 294 seats, that's up 36 on the last election in 2010. David Cameron for the CONSERVATIVES, 26 behind him on 268, that's down 38 seats. And for the other parties. The SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY on 44 seats, that's up 38 for Nicola Sturgeon's party there. Nick Clegg and the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS on 17, that's down 40 in total from the last election. UKIP we're saying on 6, treat that figure with a bit of caution at the moment because they are a new entry, as it were, to this game and it's difficult to work out exactly in places where UKIP hasn't stood before what the results will be like. But we are saying they have won 6 seats.

This is the story our exit poll is showing. We will need to wait until the results to see whether our exit poll is right, but if it is, a quite sensational story it is. Nick?

Nick Robinson: Sensational, David. An extraordinary night if the exit poll is right. Just even as you were reading out those figures, you sensed joy from the Labour Party, gloom on the faces of the Conservatives, ecstasy for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP and misery for the Liberal Democrats. Even if our exit poll is broadly right, quite small swings in either direction which is perfectly possible in an exit poll could have dramatic effects on who governs Britain next. Labour talked of winning a majority, few actually believed it possible. This exit poll suggests they haven't quite done it, but if they can push that number a bit higher, beyond 300, then they could reasonably form a minority administration. But if the exit poll shifts the other way, Labour will struggle to govern without support from the SNP in Scotland or from another third party. David Cameron would find it difficult, under these numbers, to remain in power but again, if it shifts one way or another, there still remains hope for him of the Tories continuing to govern. This exit poll for everyone, us included, is a form of exquisite torture. It's not enough for any one party to know they've won. It is enough for everyone to just believe there is still a bit of hope for the side they believe in.

DD: Put terrifyingly as always, Nick. Now, let's take just take another look at the exit poll in a bit more detail. This is the exit poll, conducted by BBC, ITV and Sky, and remember 2010 was absolutely on-the-nail in accuracy.

As we can see, Labour on 294, the Conservatives on 268, the SNP well up on 44, the Lib Dems meanwhile well down on 17, down 40 on their result from the last election. UKIP on 6, up 4 from the number of MPs they had coming into the election however when taking into account those two by-election wins last year. Plaid Cymru, we're saying down 1 on 2. The Greens on 1, remaining where they are. And 18 others, that's the Northern Irish parties there. The question is, what kind of government can be expect from these results, because obviously no-one has won an overall majority on these numbers. Jeremy?

Jeremy Vine: Yes, David, welcome to our rather noisy virtual House of Commons where we can actually take those numbers thrown up by that exit poll and put them on the famous green benches. If we look at that exit poll, David Miliband and Labour are in pole position. So we'll put him and the Labour Party on the government benches over here with 294 seats. As you can see, still quite a bit short of the 326 needed for an overall majority – 32 seats to be exact. Now throughout this election campaign, a lot has been made of Labour needing to call on the SNP, simply because the SNP are expected to eat right into Labour's Scottish heartlands that they usually rely upon in an election. And if we put the SNP in pale yellow next to Labour here, you can see they together have a majority in the House of Commons.

What if David Miliband didn't want to call for the SNP? Well, five years ago he was supposedly a strong advocate for a Lib-Lab coalition that never materialised. So if we swap the SNP for the Liberal Democrats, we can see that nope, on these numbers they wouldn't have an overall majority, but as Nick said earlier, it's quite possible with Lib Dem support, and abstentions from the smaller parties, Northern Irish parties and the like, that a Lib-Lab coalition could pass a Queen's Speech. 311 seats, which would be their combined total, might just be enough to outvote a Tory–UKIP–SNP opposition. It really does depend on what the final seat totals are.

What about the Conservatives? Well, if we swap them onto the government benches and put Labour back into opposition, we can see that they remain short by 58. Natural instinct, you feel, would be to send for the Liberal Democrats, but as we can see, a renewed coalition would only reach 285, less combined even than Labour. Even adding UKIP and the DUP, that would give them 299 seats, easily voted down by Labour and the SNP combined. So realistically, there isn't any way, under these numbers that our exit poll gives, that David Cameron can form a government.

 

[Airesien]

22:12

David Dimbleby: Well, we can now talk to two of the most senior politicians from the two main parties. We have the Conservative Chief Whip, Michael Gove, here in the studio and we can talk to Ed Balls, the Shadow Health Secretary, at his count in West Yorkshire. Mr Gove, I'll start with you. If this exit poll is right, you've dropped 38 seats. This is a bad result for you, isn't it?

Michael Gove: Well, I'm not going to put too much on an exit poll. I think you made it clear that this is just an exit poll, a forecast, and they have been wrong in the past, most notably in 1992 when they said the Conservative Party would be the largest party in a hung parliament and instead we won an overall majority, so this is just a projection and I'm going to issue the usual caveats that go with it.

DD: But, say this exit poll is wrong by the same margin of error in 1992, that would only put you up 30 seats. That's still only at the upper end of what the polls were predicting. Realistically, there's no way David Cameron can stay in Number Ten under these figures.

MG: I've already said David that I'm not going to speculate. This exit poll, if I may say so, is vastly different than the rest of the polls throughout this campaign, which generally had the two main parties neck-and-neck, if not with the Conservatives in front. So you will forgive me if I don't take this as gospel just yet.

DD: Okay, well, Ed Balls. This is a much better result for you, isn't it? If this is right, it's reasonable to assume David Miliband will become Prime Minister, isn't it?

Ed Balls [on screen]: Well, I think Michael Gove said he wasn't going to speculate, I'm going to say the same. But yes, we felt we ran a great, positive campaign and, if this exit poll is right, we have seen the results of that.

DD: Does this exit poll seem right to you, from what you've heard on the ground?

EB: Well, I do believe it could be right. We've been hearing from our candidates and activists on the ground that as the campaign's gone on that our key target voters have been switching from the other parties, so we were certainly hoping to do better than what the opinion polls were predicting, but I do want to stress that it is just an prediction and we want to wait for some real results before we can really work out what has happened tonight.

DD: And, Michael Gove, do you think this is the result of your policies in government or do you think your campaign wasn't as strong as you'd hoped?

MG: No, I don't think either of those are true. Throughout the past five years we've stuck to our long-term economic plan, we've had to make some difficult decisions in government, but we believed those decisions were right. Our campaign was strong and we felt it only got better as it went on, it focused on the key themes of the strong and stable leadership of David Cameron, getting the plan right and securing our long-term economic future. On the ground, I must say this exit poll does feel wrong. We'll have to wait until the first results to see whether it is right.

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22:31

DD: Well, I think we can now take a look at what this exit poll may mean for some specific seats, ones that were talked about as the key marginals that will decide the election. Emily Maitlis, what have you got for us?

Emily Maitlis: We've got here–on our big electronic board–the key marginal seats. Actually, key targets for Labour, currently held by the Conservatives. Now just before we look at these in detail, we have to say this is the first time we've tried to extrapolate the exit poll on individual constituencies, so do take this with a pinch of salt. But let's take a look at Warwickshire North. This is Labour's number one target seat in England, the kind of seat they should be taking very easily on a good night. It has a majority of just 54, the incumbent MP has stepped down, and you can see in the 2010 result Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck. If we put this through our exit poll, we're saying this is a likely Labour gain. The Conservatives up to 44%, Labour up even further to 47%, were saying that under this forecast they will gain Warwickshire North, and UKIP up to third place.

Another seat here, another Labour target here. Hendon, Labour target number three. In 2010, like Warwickshire North, a very close result. Matthew Offord the MP here, defending a majority of just over 100. So again, if Labour are doing well, they should be taking Hendon. And if we put our forecast through this seat, we say the Conservatives drop slightly to 41%, Labour move slightly up to 44% and we're again calling this a likely Labour gain.

Final seat here, this time in Wales. Cardiff North was taken by the Conservatives in 2010, quite a surprising gain for them as urban Cardiff is not normally fertile territory for them, Labour very keen to take it back this time. It's target number 4, like Warwickshire North no incumbent MP, and if we put this through our exit poll, we are saying Labour will take it easily, up to 44% on our forecast and the Tories drop down to 38%. Our exit poll actually predicts Labour will do a bit better in Wales than in England as they regain those formerly loyal voters. David.

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22:53

DD: And I'll stop you there, because it looks as if we're going to get our first declaration in Sunderland.

Returning Officer: I, David Smith, acting returning officer for the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency, hereby give notice that the total number of votes cast for each candidate is as follows.

Richard Elvin, UK Independence Party: 10,084. Stewart Hay, Conservative Party: 4,695. Jim Murray, Liberal Democrat: 731. Bridget Phillipson, Labour Party: 22,054. [loud cheers] Alan Robinson, Green Party: 769. And that Bridget Phillipson has been duly elected as the Member for the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency.

DD: So Labour hold Houghton and Sunderland South, as expected really. No real chance of an upset here. And if we look at the figures, what sort of pattern can we see?

HOUGHTON AND SUNDERLAND SOUTH
LAB  Bridget Phillipson    22054 57.3% (+ 7.0%)
UKP  Richard Elvin         10084 26.3% (+23.6%)
CON  Stewart Hay            4695 12.2% (- 9.2%)
GRN  Alan Robinson           769  2.0% (+ 2.0%)
LDM  Jim Murray              731  1.9% (-12.0%)

LAB HOLD
MAJ:    11970
SWING:  8.1% CON TO LAB

DD: So, Labour are up 7%. UKIP are up 23.6%, a huge increase for them here. Conservatives down 9.2 and Liberal Democrats down 12%. So the Coalition takes a huge battering in Sunderland South here, with a swing of 8.1% from the Conservatives to Labour. What do you make of this, Peter Kellner?

Peter Kellner: This result is roughly in line with the exit poll, we did expect both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to get badly punished in the North East. This has never really been fertile ground for any party but Labour really, and we were expecting Labour to be up probably 6 or 7%. So a big 8.1% swing, but we're not expecting that nationally, so don't read too much into it just yet. Interestingly UKIP go comfortably into second place, again that may be something to keep an eye on in other northern seats as a big UKIP vote could take votes from the two main parties.

 

[thevaliant]

Taking the Exit Poll first, many people forget that the Exit Poll in 2015 was nearly wrong on 1992 levels of wrongness. It was just that the polls (not the Exit Poll) had forecast deep into hung parliament territory that when the Exit Poll came out and said Con on 316 (just ten short) everyone forget when it was later proved to be even wrong as the Conservatives got 331 (15 seats more).

IF, and its a big IF, you intend to have this Exit Poll wrong by roughly the same levels, then Labour are probably really going to end up about 285, and the Conservatives really end up about 280. That is deep in hung parliament territory for both, with no clear coalition for either.

On Exit Poll numbers, the government is clearly Labour with support from SNP.
If my guess on the real result is right, it's still Labour but they'll be crawling over the line with SNP support, who will hold a very powerful whip hand.

 

[Airesien]

Returning Officer: I'm now ready to declare the results of the Sunderland Central constituency. Julie Elliott, Labour Party: 22,384. [loud cheers] Rachel Featherstone, Green Party: 1,211. Bryan Foster, UK Independence Party: 10,231. [scattered cheers] Adrian Page, Liberal Democrats: 960. Jeff Townsend, Conservative Party: 6,972. Joseph Young, Independent: 167. And I do hereby declare that Julie Elliott has been elected as Member for the Sunderland Central constituency.

David Dimbleby: So a second hold for Labour, another safe seat in Sunderland there. Julie Elliott the MP. Let's take a look at the swing and see what that does for us.

SUNDERLAND CENTRAL
LAB Julie Elliott 22384 53.4% (+ 7.5%)
UKP Bryan Foster 10231 24.4% (+21.8%)
CON Jeff Townsend 6972 16.6% (- 13.5%)
GRN Rachel Featherstone 1211 2.8% (+ 2.8%)
LDM Adrian Page 960 2.2% (-14.7%)
IND Joseph Young 167 0.4% (+ 0.4%)

LAB HOLD – 10.5% SWING CON TO LAB

So much the same sort of scene as Houghton and Sunderland South. Labour up 7-ish%, Conservatives down 13 and a half per cent there. Liberal Democrats collapse and lose their deposit, UKIP up a lot. Is this in line with our exit poll, Peter?

Peter Kellner: Again, David, hard to say but yes, like the seat before, we were expecting a big jump in the Labour vote, a large increase in the UKIP share, it's probably a bit more of a swing from the Conservatives to Labour though, we weren't expecting double digits. Sunderland Central was one of those outsider seats David Cameron had been keeping an eye on before the 2010 election, but clearly here they have lost any progress they might have made.

Nick Robinson: Interesting about this seat is that it does show that UKIP can expect to do well in these northern urban seats that are usually Labour heartlands. Much was made, after the Heywood and Middleton by-election, about UKIP delivering a two-pronged attack on the main parties, emphasising their traditional, middle-class approach in the South of England, and their anti-immigration, working-class stances in the North of England. The North East is one of the areas they wanted to make progress in, they weren't expecting any seat gains, but it looks as if they are turning into one of the stories of the night.

DD: Well, we can actually speak to Paul Nuttall, Deputy Leader of UKIP, live from his count in Liverpool. How are you doing, Mr Nuttall? These are good results for you aren't they?

Paul Nuttall: Evening, David. Yes, these are good results and reflect the sort of campaign we've had. In the North of England, we did expect to make significant gains in our vote share and I'm happy to see in the two seats that have been declared we've had gains of 20% in the number of people voting for us.

DD:And this exit poll says you'll have six seats, do you expect your seat to be one of those?

PN: Well, I would be lying to you if I said that Bootle was in our top targets [laughs] I'm not saying no but we weren't expecting to take seats in Merseyside, although it would be an honour to represent my home seat. We set ourselves a target of five to ten seats and if the exit poll is right we've hit our target.

DD: Even if you don't think you've won your seat, has Mr Farage won his at seventh time of asking?

PN: We've put a lot of party resources into the seat he is contesting, yes, and we have been having a great response on the ground, so I would say I think he has won his seat this time, yes.

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DD: Let's just go back to Sunderland now, I think we have our third declaration.

RO: ...hereby give notice that the total number of votes cast for each candidate is as follows. Aileen Casey, UK Independence Party: 9,127. Bob Dhillon, Conservative Party: 4,882. Gary Duncan, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: 230. Dominic Haney, Liberal Democrat: 894. Sharon Hodgson, Labour Party: 21,160. [loud cheers] Anthony Murphy, Green Party: 745. And that Sharon Hodgson has been duly elected as the Member for the Washington and Sunderland West constituency.

DD: Third hold for Labour there, an easy victory for Sharon Hodgson, the Shadow Leader of the Families and Children Office. If we pull up the full results, we can see this seat in a bit more detail.

WASHINGTON AND SUNDERLAND WEST
LAB Sharon Hodgson 21160 57.1% (+ 4.6%)
UKP Aileen Casey 9127 24.7% (+21.4%)
CON Bob Dhillon 4882 13.2% (- 8.6%)
LDM Dominic Haney 894 2.4% (-14.7%)
GRN Anthony Murphy 745 2.0% (+ 2.0%)
TSC Gary Duncan 230 0.6%(+ 0.6%)

LAB HOLD – 6.6% SWING CON TO LAB

So, a smaller swing here, Labour up four and a half percent instead of the swings we saw elsewhere in Sunderland that were a bit higher, but Labour's share of the vote is a bit higher here anyway. UKIP in second again, Conservatives down, the Lib Dems lose their deposit - that's three seats out of three.

 

[Shads]

This is shaping up to be very interesting. I wonder if David Miliband ruled out an SNP coalition like Ed did.