The Twin Vipers: A TL of the Berlin-Moscow Axis

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5/44-6/44
Questions of the Future, May 1944

The defeat of Germany had been a long and difficult fight. Casualties, although not as bad as those suffered during World War I, had still been heavy for the Allies, and the prospect of fighting the ever more numerous Soviets after an already difficult war was intimidating. Overall victory against the USSR would require a massive investment of time, treasure and blood, and remained far from certain as the VVS continued to battle the Allied air forces above Germany. In the first months of 1944, it was not hard to see why certain parts of the French, British and American populations were calling for peace with Stalin.

When Allied troops entered Germany in full force throughout March 1944, attitudes towards the war changed dramatically. The Wehrmacht had fought on the Western Front while abiding by the Geneva Convention, and while the SS had committed some atrocities in Belgium in 1940, they were quickly pulled from the line. But beyond the Rhine, the Allies found dozens of concentration camps, where hundreds of thousands of Jews, along with Poles, political opponents and other people Hitler had outlined for extermination, were housed. Common among the liberated prisoners were stories of other camps where people were taken to be killed. The Allies found none of these camps, but the stories were so common that the only logical conclusion was that these camps had been located in territory now controlled by the USSR.

Allied newspapers were quickly filled with pictures of starving survivors of the camps, sparking a wave of outrage. Anti-Soviet propaganda produced since 1939 had occasionally made references to Stalin’s forced collectivisation plan in the Ukraine that led to millions of deaths, and images from Germany only confirmed what many believed already – that Stalin had not changed since the murderous days of the early 1930s. Indeed, it was likely that in addition to aiding Hitler (who had quickly gone from “enemy leader” to “one of the few worst people in all of history”), Stalin was just as bad as his ally, and the world would not be safe as long as he was free to continue killing people.

Relighting the Fire, May 1944

Baku’s oilfields had been raided once before, early in the war. Producing around three-quarter’s of the USSR’s oil supply, and only a short distance from Allied airbases in Turkey and Syria, the fields and nearby city were an obvious target for bombers. Incredible efforts had been undertaken to improve the infrastructure of the Syrian airfields, which had been a limiting factor to the ability of the Allies to target this vital centre. Now the French colony was host to one of the largest airbases in the world.

Stalin knew as well as the Allies just how important Baku was, and had fortified the southern Caucasus with incredible amounts of anti-aircraft weaponry (including the German 128mm gun that had become the basis for the Wolf’s main cannon), and a non-stop fighter patrol that included MiG-262s. As a further precaution, Stalin had ordered the immediate relocation of all German synthetic fuel plants to Moscow, and the construction of new plants using the German design (in some cases even importing the engineers themselves), which would be able to keep the USSR supplied in oil even if the Caucasus was heavily bombed.

Operation Razorback, the second major bombing raid on Baku, was planned for May 6th, although bad weather forced it to be delayed by two days. Over 600 Allied bombers, including a squadron of newly-introduced Avro Lincolns, were tasked with the destruction of Baku and the surrounding area. Unlike the 1940 raid, the bomber force could call on a formidable escort equipped with a wide variety of fighters, from the US Navy Corsair, to the RAF Tempest, and even a captured Me 262 (which was committed to the raid in the hope that the pilot could bring back valuable information about jet-on-jet combat as the Allies prepared to introduce their own jet fighters).

Razorback ended up being the costliest Allied bombing raid of the entire war, losing 112 bombers and 83 fighters. Their deaths were not in vain however, as Baku was engulfed in a massive fire as spilled oil was ignited by incendiary bombs, rendering most of the fields unusable and the surrounding infrastructure badly damaged. The air battle above Baku also provided some desperately needed experience against jet fighters, with pilots coming to the conclusion that a traditional dogfight with a MiG-262 would only lead to disaster, and focus shifted to fighting them when they were in their most vulnerable positions during takeoff and landing.

Bavarian Offensive, June 1944

In the wake of Hitler’s death and the subsequent rush to secure Germany, both the Allies and the Soviets had spent much of the Spring building up their strength and adjusting their logistics systems. A new front line had emerged, roughly following a line from the centre of Berlin to the Sudetenland forts, then along the old Austrian, Hungarian and Romanian frontiers. In addition to the Hungarian and German armies, STAVKA had set up three fronts – Antonov’s Western Front in Germany, Rokossovsky’s Carpathian Front in Bohemia and Konev’s Southwestern Front in Romania, while the two Caucasus Fronts being merged under Zhukov’s single command in eastern Turkey. The Allied command structure had changed little since 1943, with the notable exceptions being the introduction of a 4th American Army under General Matthew Ridgway, and the rearrangement of units such that armies of the same nationality were now given adjacent positions on the front, with the British furthest north, then American, French and finally Italian units in the south.

The Red Army had planned for Germany’s potential fall as early as the initial breakthroughs on the Western Front in summer 1943, allowing it to be in position on the new front line (which had been formed wherever the Allies and Soviets met) well before the Allies had a chance to. Stalin hoped to take advantage of the confusion within the Allied command and push the frontline west, recovering German industry in cities such as Munich and Stuttgart, and bringing France within Axis bombing range once more.

Rokossovsky began the Bavarian Strategic Operation on May 27th, immediately clashing with the new 4th American Army and the bulk of the French forces currently deployed against the Red Army. What Czech forts the French had seized from the Germans were quickly retaken, while the first massed deployment of Wolf tanks, along with thousands of older T-34s, surged into Bavaria. Munich was taken early in the campaign, while the Americans scrambled to hold Nuremberg. A massive salient was carved out of southern Germany, and the numerically superior Red Army hoped to use the lengthened front to tip the balance in their favour.

- BNC
 
captured Me 262

I'm... not convinced the 262 has the range for that? I mean, if you have other numbers to support the idea, by all means feel free to disregard me, but from the most northeasterly corner of OTL Syria to Baku is about 760 km. Even with a drop tank, I doubt you're going to get much over 1500 km range out of a Me-262.

Also, it seems like a big risk of getting shot down in a case of friendly fire/mistaken identity if the Soviets have their MiG version in the area.
 
I'm... not convinced the 262 has the range for that? I mean, if you have other numbers to support the idea, by all means feel free to disregard me, but from the most northeasterly corner of OTL Syria to Baku is about 760 km. Even with a drop tank, I doubt you're going to get much over 1500 km range out of a Me-262.

Also, it seems like a big risk of getting shot down in a case of friendly fire/mistaken identity if the Soviets have their MiG version in the area.

My thinking was that escort fighters would be operating out of a smaller airbase located closer to Baku, such as northern Iran, and join up with the bombers somewhere along the route - Rasht to Baku is about 350 km, well within the range of a 262 (and for that matter, I'm pretty sure the forward bases would be needed for Allied planes other than the Mustang as well - a P-47's range is only slightly more than that of the 262).

As for the risk, the pilot in the 262 volunteered for the mission knowing full well what could happen. He lived too.

The plot thickens.

Stalin and Soviet Russia taking the fall for the Holocaust? This could have considerable butterflies. Anyway, keep these updates coming.

Blame is easy enough. The truth is always more complicated.

- BNC
 
My thinking was that escort fighters would be operating out of a smaller airbase located closer to Baku, such as northern Iran, and join up with the bombers somewhere along the route - Rasht to Baku is about 350 km, well within the range of a 262 (and for that matter, I'm pretty sure the forward bases would be needed for Allied planes other than the Mustang as well - a P-47's range is only slightly more than that of the 262).

As for the risk, the pilot in the 262 volunteered for the mission knowing full well what could happen. He lived too.

Fair enough, I suppose. I guess it depends, in part, on where exactly the front lines are.
 
I’m scared that WMD will be used as common tactical tactic in this war if neither want to back down.
 
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How many casualties were sustained so far?

For the Western Front to the German Collapse, around 2M dead between the Allies and 2M dead Germans, plus ~3M German PoWs. Lots of wounded each side too (too hard for me to give a number just by pulling figures from OTL WWI and II). Civilian deaths would be in the low hundreds of thousands from strategic bombing, but overall the war has mostly been "clean"

Middle Eastern Front won't have been that heavy, Chuikov's force never numbered more than about 250k and most of those losses were PoWs.

China and the Far East... China would be similar to OTL 1937-1941, and the communists would have lost a fair amount of men in the resumed civil war, probably ~1M total for post-1941 actions. Split another 1M between the Soviets and Japanese in Manchuria/Korea.

TLDR, a bit less than OTL WW2 military losses, a lot less than OTL civilian losses.

- BNC
 
For the Western Front to the German Collapse, around 2M dead between the Allies and 2M dead Germans, plus ~3M German PoWs. Lots of wounded each side too (too hard for me to give a number just by pulling figures from OTL WWI and II).
Then the French were butchered, considering that for the first years of the war they were holding the greatest part of the war. Manpower should be an issue now.
 
Then the French were butchered, considering that for the first years of the war they were holding the greatest part of the war. Manpower should be an issue now.
Gah! I'd been meaning to make a mention of manpower for a while, must have gotten that lost in my notes somewhere. But yes, it is a concern for the Allies, even with colonial troops.

Speaking of that, is the NKVD currently active in European colonies ?

By 1944? No chance. Five years of intense anti-communist propaganda, plus another twenty years of the USSR being public enemy #1, and the fact that a lot of dedicated communists ditched the USSR after the alliance with Hitler was announced... doesn't leave a lot of room for espionage to thrive.

- BNC
 
Have the Allies been contacting White Russian emigres as potential leaders for Post-Soviet Russia?

As yet, no, because the idea of a Post-Soviet Russia is itself only a recently realised possibility. From 1939-43, the Allies (sans Japan) were working on the assumption that a "victory" meant keeping the Germans out of France and the Low Countries, and probably giving Poland up to the Axis as a lost cause, followed by a white peace with Stalin. Only after the Wehrmacht fell apart did it look possible to get rid of Hitler.

Even though Hitler is now out of the way (and Stalin is fully prepared to chuck Halder and Goring if he loses), the frontline is still in eastern Germany, far from the Soviet border. Public support and manpower are not going to hold up forever, and unless a major defeat is inflicted upon the Soviets (say, pushing them back to Warsaw at minimum, more likely Minsk), then any peace deal is going to involve Stalin remaining as leader (or another communist if Stalin is knocked off). Only in the case of the USSR completely unravelling or the capture of Moscow can a leadership change be forced, and very few significant leaders are as confident as Patton about that being a possibility at this stage.

The Allies can look for a White or some other nationalist and potentially invite them to Washington, Paris or London, but anything else is going to depend upon what the situation looks like in 6 or 12 months time.

- BNC
 
7/44-8/44
Antonov and Bradley, July 1944

Rokossovsky’s offensive had forced the Americans to pull Ridgway’s 4th American Army off the front line in front of the Czech forts in order to defend Nuremberg, leaving only the 1st and 2nd American Armies to cover the ground between Berlin and Plauen. With the situation in Bavaria continuing to appear favourable to the Red Army, it was time for the second part of the plan to retake Germany.

The commander of the Soviet Western Front, Aleksei Antonov, was a much quieter personality compared to most of the generals fighting in Europe. Most of his time throughout the war had been in Moscow, where he was responsible for much of STAVKA’s planning. Stalin had come to trust Antonov, and in early 1944 decided that the quiet, cautious but talented general would be an ideal opponent for the aggressive and unpredictable Patton.

Antonov’s plan was not bold or particularly aggressive, hoping to use the Red Army’s superiority in numbers, heavy armour and especially artillery to push the Americans out of central Germany, while Rokossovsky tied the Americans and French down further south. The overstretched Americans were pushed back and Leipzig and Magdeburg were retaken by the Soviets (much to Halder’s delight).

Antonov met his match in General Bradley, commander of the 1st American Army. Bradley had noticed throughout the war that most Soviet offensives begun with massive artillery bombardments, followed by an armoured assault on a broad front, known to the troops as a “headlong smash”. Following the fall of Magdeburg, Bradley proposed that the bulk of the Army fall back to prepared positions five or ten kilometres behind the front line, just leaving enough forces forward to hopefully deceive the Soviet forces into firing their artillery into mostly empty ground.

Bradley’s plan was tested when Antonov attempted to launch another attack in the direction of Hannover. Katyushas and conventional artillery fired a massive barrage into what they thought were the American lines, only for the tanks to then charge right into a well defended position further in the rear, complete with anti-tank guns and artillery of their own. Air strikes were launched targeting the Red Army’s position, and Antonov was forced to call a retreat, leaving a shattered Magdeburg in the hands of the Allies.

Vladivostock Under Siege, August 1944

The Far Eastern theatre had seen the first battleground of the war at Nomonhan, but by 1944 it was barely an afterthought in Moscow. The collapse of Germany forced Stalin to commit the majority of his forces to Europe, where it was increasingly obvious that the war would be decided on the plains of Germany and Poland. In the Far East, all forces had to be supplied over the Trans-Siberian Railroad, which had been sufficient to crush the Kwantung Army in 1939 but was now unable to supply enough forces to defeat a resurgent Japan in 1944.

Harbin, the last significant city in Manchukuo to be liberated, was occupied by the IJA in the early months of the year. Budyonny, commander of the Far Eastern Front, had barely contested them, as Japanese, Manchu and Chinese elements sabotaged what little transport networks existed between Harbin, North Manchukuo and Soviet power bases in Chita and Irkutsk. Budyonny had instead pulled his forces out, sending them east to defend Japan’s obvious next target: Vladivostock.

Vladivostock was a formidable position in its own right, and with fortifications capable of rivalling the Maginot Line, Stalin’s largest Pacific port was turned into a citadel. At the tip of a narrow peninsula, there was only one direction through which the Japanese could come, and any assault, especially a Banzai charge that they were well known for, would be costly.

The Japanese did not want to fight according to Budyonny’s plans. While the reckless IJA of 1939 may have attempted to charge the lines, the reformed IJA of 1944 was determined to do anything but that. With the defeat of the Kriegsmarine, Prime Minister Saito had pulled the Navy out of the Atlantic, allowing it to directly clash with the Soviets in the Far East. Musashi and Shinano, the two largest battleships ever constructed, were available to use their 18” guns as offshore artillery, pounding Vladivostock while Army units waited, having demolished a section of the Trans-Siberian Railroad and having set up machine gun positions where tracks had once lay. Vladivostock would now be under siege, far from the heroic battle that Budyonny hoped would allow him to destroy the Japanese Army and allow a recapture of Manchukuo.

The Oil Plan, August 1944

In World War I, France and Britain had both lost the cream of an entire generation of men fighting on the Western Front. After five years of fighting in World War II, the best of the next generation had fallen, some on the exact same battlefields that their fathers and uncles had fought against the Kaiser. Even with the support of colonial troops from their respective empires, it was clear that their manpower was dwindling, and that a total war effort would not be sustainable forever. France, which had borne the brunt of the fighting in 1939 and 1940, and had been a major contributor ever since, was feeling the effects the hardest, having merged several divisions together in an attempt to keep each active division at something approaching combat strength.

With Daladier urgently requesting that French units be pulled from the front line and given less taxing occupation duties, it was becoming obvious that a direct commitment to beat the Red Army in open battle, with millions of fresh Soviet recruits opposing exhausted Allied soldiers, would not be able to win the war by itself, despite Patton’s boasts to the contrary. The Red Army would need to be disabled and left unable to fight.

Despite the heavy losses taken in the Razorback raid on Baku, the destruction of oil facilities there inspired the combined Allied leadership to develop what became known as the Oil Plan. The Oil Plan envisioned a massive bombing campaign directed at all of the USSR’s oil-producing facilities within bombing range, most importantly those at Maikop and Grozny, in the hopes that without fuel, the Soviet war machine would grind to a halt. Once this had been accomplished, Allied bombers would focus their attention on destroying known Soviet airfields, especially those that were operating the VVS’ fleet of jet fighters. Once the VVS’ infrastructure had been destroyed, and its tens of thousands of aircraft grounded, the Red Army’s logistics columns would be vulnerable to strikes from above, while ground forces would be able to defeat it in a weakened state.

The raids on Maikop and Grozny were very successful, with anti-air defences much lighter than at Baku and an effective escort provided by RN and USN carriers operating in the Black Sea. Bletchley Park quickly intercepted Enigma messages from Moscow that indicated that although Soviet capacity had been badly damaged, synthetic fuel facilities and new developments of an oilfield near Ufa (well out of bomber range) meant that although the USSR was now producing less than it consumed, the difference was not so great as to be of any immediate risk to the nation’s military capabilities. Nonetheless, the rest of the Oil Plan could still be carried out, and efforts to destroy the VVS’ fighting capabilities began in early September.

- BNC
 
What’s China doing? Are they accepted the lost of Manchukou and others land that Japan retaken? Because at this time Japan is the biggest win in this war, and if China doesn’t slow them down, they will lost alot in peace treaty.
 
I thought the French were planning to fight a war of material, in order to save blood.

I don't believe I said anything to contradict this in the update?

The Oil Plan seeks to stop the VVS from being able to impact Allied operations, allowing the Allies to smash the Red Army's logistics and only have to fight a weakened enemy, which will save blood in the next major offensive.

Daladier is also attempting to reduce France's commitment to the front line by pulling troops back to occupy Germany and other less dangerous tasks - obviously taking five French armies out of the line in their entirety would be political suicide, but even a drawdown will save French lives. Some French blood will still need to be spent however in clearing the Soviets out of whatever territories the Allies decide to keep out of Russian influence - a war cannot be won by simply lining up a huge amount of artillery and shooting it off.

What’s China doing? Are they accepted the lost of Manchukou and others land that Japan retaken? Because at this time Japan is the biggest win in this war, and if China doesn’t slow them down, they will lost alot in peace treaty.
China pulled out of the war after Mao was defeated. The country was devastated by two decades of infighting and the army is not up to the task of fighting either the Red Army or the Japanese, and Chiang is focused on rebuilding the country.
The Allies decided to back Japan's claim to Manchukuo in light of this and their (Japan's) massive contribution to the war effort, and any attempt by China to reverse this is going to be met with, at the very least, quite a few angry diplomatic notes.

Sheng Shicai still occupies Xinjiang as a Soviet puppet, and if the Soviets look weak then the Chinese may try to reclaim that, but otherwise they are out of the war.

- BNC
 
At the very least, send my boi Patton to Minsk! Before the Ruskies run out of oil, starve to death, and get nuked. Surely the Allies can at least project power to Belarus before Stalin capitulates.

Nah but in all seriousness I am digging this timeline, ironic that the Nazis are now nothing more than a puppet to Stalin. Also good to see that Stalin may actually punish for the crimes he committed to his people, if not by an Allied tribunal by a bullet to the back of his head via a coup from one of his generals.
 
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