The Twin Eagles and the Lion

[LordKalvan]

Agreed. Doesn't make all that much sense, at the moment. After WWI and the dismantling of the French colonial empire and the nerfing of the British Empire, it may be different.

After WW1, I would expect French Indochina to be split between Germany and Italy.
North Borneo (Sarawak and Brunei) would be interesting for Italy; however the plum would be Formosa, if Japan enters the war on the Entente side.

What might be interesting at the WW1 settlement would be USA forgetting the open door policy in China, and going for a serious peace of it.

 

[General Zod]

But there is no desire for annexation. And the Canadians are giving up without an invasion.

The alternative would be: keeping state/commonwealth autonomy, or suffer god knows how many years of military occupation.

There was no amazing desire in America at that point to annex Canada anymore.

No goal to take over all of Canada, whatsoever.

You are utterly undervaluing the effects of a few months of well-done jingoistic press campaign in the TL's time frame. By the time the declaration of war is issued, the desire and goal shall be definitely there, I can assure you. Political butterflies in action.

Canadians aren't "Americans in denial" just waiting to shed their skins and show their 'true' colours.

Yes, they are. Canadian nationalism is the very essence of cultural denial.

But in your timeline, Canada has made itself off of 'good' relations with its neighbour to the south, and America (despite the odd, and it was 'the odd' believer in manifest destiny by this point in time) has lost all animosity to their Canadian cousins.

Again, you utterly undervalue how quickly mass consensus to radical nationalist/irredentist/expansionist/imperialist political agendas may be built in this timeframe.

I can't say this poingnantly enough. Occupation of Canada would not be peaceful. There would not be celebrating in the streets. No "Hurray for the states." Everyone at the time knew it.

Therefore, occupied Canada would get to star in the remake of the Reconstruction: a few years of bitter military occupation, some minor hopeless guerrilla that soon dies out from lack of external support, the British Empire crashing and burning in total military defeat, being largely dismantled in a Versailles peace settlement, and economic collapse, and losing all appeal, stubborn Canadian patriots gradually and reluctantly their fate as Americans ? Fine by me.

Ditto for Quebec. Quebec at the time was astonishingly patrioticly CANADIAN. Quebec nationalism was confined to a few drunkards in bars, and only when they were drunk.

What are they going to transfer their loyalties to if Canada is no more and the British Empire has being carved up by the USA and the Triple Alliance ?

I'm sorry, but it seems your projecting some kind of desire to bring Canada into the fold onto the American populace from your own ideas of what nations should look like.

As far as I know, it's the right of a TL (co-)author to pick and choose among plausible butterflies to enforce the kind of outcome he fancies.

Yes, if I can but grasp the barely plausible opportunity to kill nations like Austria, Canada, Belgium, or Portugal in a TL, I shall shamelessly do it. Main AH pet peeve of mine. Separate states that closely belong to larger cultural/geopolitical "imperial" unities should not exist.

The POD is simply too late for Canadian annexation to be considered feasible. Canada is not mounting any kind of real threat (ala Turtledove's 191) so there is no need to remove it or kind of revenge motive.

Strong sudden resurgence of manifest destiny expansionism.

Canada would resist all forms of shotgun marriage.

See: Reconstruction South, post-1898 Philippines.

It should also be noted that Canadian Provinces would be losing rights as states, not gaining them. Canadian Provinces, more then than even now, had more 'state' rights then American states did.

Hmm, Canadian states making a deal with the South to lobby for more state rights ? What kind of state rights did you have in mind: if Quebec became a state, language rights would be an obvious issue (in a combined lobby with Cuba and Puerto Rico). But English Canada ?

Again, the alternative is occupation.

 

[Nicomacheus]

Zod,

For what it's worth, I'm with DJ on the likely outcomes of Canada. You haven't posited nearly enough changes in the American-Canadian trade relationship. Canada will feel outraged enough that Great Britain left them exposed. Getting them out of the war quick will be a huge propaganda victory for the war at home, since it will preclude any invasion (other than one mounted from the sea) of the American mainland itself. The US of OTL 1898 was anything but universally committed to further land grabs: the Democrats in 1896 had just run a very popular campaign, premised in part by resiting imperialism. Populist farmers in the midwest wouldn't be happy about it. William Jennings Bryan would give all sorts of speeches denouncing the move if the US gave up on such a plan. And then of course, to Americans of 1898 there's a very big (racial) difference between "liberating" browner peoples in the Caribbean and invading white, mostly Anglo-saxon, mostly protestants. Plus what jingoists who did support thing such as reciprocity and hope for greater US - Canadian unity where content with increasing the reliance of Canada on the US economy. All of this to say that baring an as-of-yet unexplained TTL political movement, I find a conquest and annexation of all of Canada unlikely (not impossible).

Similarly, I think you're discounting Anglo-American ties as ones of potential affection, rather than shared interest. The US was one of the biggest destinations of British capital during the latter part of the 19th century: everything from ranches, to mines, to railroads was owned in part by British investors in the City of London. (I don't have the figures on hand at the moment, but I can find them if you're interested.) Add to this a large volume of trade passing between the two countries and there will be a lot of people who will oppose war not out of some shared sense of "anglospheric altruism" but because they would stand to lose lots and lots of money. In this regard, the existence of "war scares" (a relatively common occurrence in the Victorian age and among which that over Venezuela was relatively minor compared to one in the 1890s vis-a-vis France) doesn't really suggest very much (IMHO) about the attitudes of the public at large on the question.

Further, it would seem that any French - Spanish alliance (or personal union) is going to so change Spanish politics and therefore the Spanish response to the insurrection in Cuba that positing the outbreak of the Spanish-American War exactly as per OTL seems strange. For one, even for McKinley's Imperialist Republicans, declaring war on Spain that was prominently part of the European alliance system would have been a very different prospect than declaring war on Spain that was isolated and weak. If the French do declare, it will be because they are committed to the defense of the their ally. The time for mobilization in France and the US will probably mean that the fighting will last much longer than OTL. If so, the US Army will definitely be strained, first in terms of material and then in terms of men. And the longer the war lasts, the infinitely greater its political consequences in the US. All of this is to say that I don't find the notion of the USN steamrolling the Marine Nationale and grabbing all outposts of French rule in the Western Hemisphere particularly plausible without a few bloody years of fighting.

[ Note that I could pretty easily see the political consequences of a nasty Franco-American War over Cuba leading to a teetering American victory, premised on a new, mildly authoritarian (as much as Woodrow Wilson) spirit in the US itself, which might itself fall into antipathy toward the British (after the expereince of hard fighting against "European imperialists") and might bungle headlong into an invasion and occupation of Canada, much as Turtledove's US did in TL-191. ]

Nevertheless, that's my two cents. I'll leave you to it.

 

[General Zod]

After WW1, I would expect French Indochina to be split between Germany and Italy.

Yes.

North Borneo (Sarawak and Brunei) would be interesting for Italy;

And Malesia proper to Germany, I surmise.

however the plum would be Formosa, if Japan enters the war on the Entente side.

I would really expect they do, following the British example. They would also have to rematch the RJW draw.

What might be interesting at the WW1 settlement would be USA forgetting the open door policy in China, and going for a serious peace of it.

Yes, that would be interesting, if the USA really swings more imperialistic. Let's say they annex more stuff in the 1898 war (no independence to Cuba, plus French Guiana and New Caledonia), they give a shotgun marriage (or savory metaphors, your choice) to Canada and the British West Indies.

Anyway, I suppose that rivalry over China, be it anticolonial USA open dorr vs. colonial Triple Alliance concessions, or imperialist USA vs. imperialist TA vying for spheres of influence, would be a serious thorn in the isde of post-war relationship between USA and the RGI bloc, the new superpowers. There also might be a serious rivalry about picking India from the dying British Empire. I think that would be the one piece of the Empire that Britain would get to keep (with Anzus). Too big for the RGI bloc to assimilate when they are busy assimilating and organizing the rest of western Eurasia and Africa. But in 10-15 years, they may rethink the issue, as the USA may. Of course, that assuming that the collpase of Britain is not so complete that India makes a successful bid for independence in the post-war period. They might.

Anyway, IMO South and East Asia shall be the strategic rivalry hotspots between USA and RGI in the 1920s-1930s. of course, unless and until a revanchist UK/France/Japan "Axis/Comintern" rears its head.

A related issue: ITTL, if Roosevelt is President in 1912-1920, what would he do about the political chaos in Mexico ? Would he intervene, or would WWI butterfly away intervention ? And what the result of intervention be ? Entente Mexico ? Satellite Mexico ? Annexation of northern Mexico ? All of it ? Could this just just still lead to a British Zimmerman Telegram (it would require a US spy to be discovered), or is it too clichè ?

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

The alternative would be: keeping state/commonwealth autonomy, or suffer god knows how many years of military occupation.

The reasonable alternative, as I and others have agreed, is a fellow republic allied to the states in a free trade agreement. Wether this falls into some kind of commonwealth agreement later down the line depends on political and military events.

You are utterly undervaluing the effects of a few months of well-done jingoistic press campaign in the TL's time frame. By the time the declaration of war is issued, the desire and goal shall be definitely there, I can assure you. Political butterflies in action.

And you are undervalueing a hundred years of peaceful trade relations with a fellow English speaking nation.

Yes, they are. Canadian nationalism is the very essence of cultural denial.

That is utterly insulting. Canadian culture goes far beyond "we are not american" and that entire concept is actualy a stereotype.

Again, you utterly undervalue how quickly mass consensus to radical nationalist/irredentist/expansionist/imperialist political agendas may be built in this timeframe.

But America defines itself as the anti-imperialist. Sure it was hypocritical, but as Nicomacheus stated, there is a difference to the American people between extending American rule to other 'white' nations and extending her rule to the southern 'brown' ones.

Therefore, occupied Canada would get to star in the remake of the Reconstruction: a few years of bitter military occupation, some minor hopeless guerrilla that soon dies out from lack of external support, the British Empire crashing and burning in total military defeat, being largely dismantled in a Versailles peace settlement, and economic collapse, and losing all appeal, stubborn Canadian patriots gradually and reluctantly their fate as Americans ? Fine by me.

Which is eminently expensive. Why pay to restructure a whole society, deal with Canadian patriotes, and forcefully pay for the upkeep when you can install a Canadian republic at Canadian monetary and political expense.

What are they going to transfer their loyalties to if Canada is no more and the British Empire has being carved up by the USA and the Triple Alliance ?

What I'm saying is that they won't be too pleased either. Their won't be any "Hooray, they've freed us from the anglophones and surrouned us on all sides.

As far as I know, it's the right of a TL (co-)author to pick and choose among plausible butterflies to enforce the kind of outcome he fancies.

Yes, if I can but grasp the barely plausible opportunity to kill nations like Austria, Canada, Belgium, or Portugal in a TL, I shall shamelessly do it. Main AH pet peeve of mine. Separate states that closely belong to larger cultural/geopolitical "imperial" unities should not exist.

I dont challenge your authority on that. I firmly agree that is your perogative.
What I disagree on is the realms of plausibility, and I firmly believe you are pushing it.

Strong sudden resurgence of manifest destiny expansionism.



See: Reconstruction South, post-1898 Philippines.


Hmm, Canadian states making a deal with the South to lobby for more state rights ? What kind of state rights did you have in mind: if Quebec became a state, language rights would be an obvious issue (in a combined lobby with Cuba and Puerto Rico). But English Canada ?

Again, the alternative is occupation.

Your seem firmly set on the idea that Canada MUST be invaded, but instead, as Nicomacheus pointed out Canada giving up and becoming a fellow republic would be an IMMENSE propaganda victory.

Since from what I can gather America will intervene in a manner similiar to OTL (late), they'll be fewer misconceptions on how long a war will take. All of a sudden, Ottawa, pissed at Britain for putting them in the situation, will offer peace.

VICTORY ON THE CONTINENT WITHOUT A SHOT!

That would make headlines, and more importantly to many in Washington, it would make careers.

People make them on victories. The more clear cut the better. Canada pulling out would a MASSIVE victory against Britain without losing a life.

There is no way Washington would pass it up.

 

[DuQuense]

Due to Butterflies McKensley doesn't die in 1901, so no TR President. No US buying the French Canal in Panama, Nicaragua Canal goes thru. Columbia holds Panama.

?Do Whe still Have the Russian-Japanese War in 1905?. ?Does VP TR still get involved with the Peace Negotiation?

W J Bryan [and Party] was opposed to the annexation of Hawaii, ?Would this carry over to opposing taking Tahiti, and French /Spanish South pacific?

Given the differences in the Berlin - African Conference - ?How did Germany end up with the exact same Pacific Territories?

 

[BrotherToAll]

How would Britian react to having Canada just up and bolt into the arms of the US in order to avoid being torn apart? Would they wan't to punish Canada? How would it look from a global point of view if they lost Canada wouldn't they lose alot of face?

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

How would Britian react to having Canada just up and bolt into the arms of the US in order to avoid being torn apart? Would they wan't to punish Canada? How would it look from a global point of view if they lost Canada wouldn't they lose alot of face?

Probably not well, but how could they punish her. For one thing, Britain I think in this TL is heading for worse things then losing face because of Canada.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think Americans would seize major cities like Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal and annex them to USA...
also around Oregon they might move the border to the 54th parallel and completely surround the great lakes.. this approach will be helpful because the majority of Canadian wealth, power and industry are in this region and now the USA controls them... also the amount of land they gained isn't that much compared to all of canada, thus easier to occupy.

But this approach also leaves the rest of Canada as a new republic based off the American system.. also Quebec most likely will be granted independence creating 2 new Canadian states dependent upon the USA for protection but not directly apart of the USA

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

I think Americans would seize major cities like Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal and annex them to USA...
also around Oregon they might move the border to the 54th parallel and completely surround the great lakes.. this approach will be helpful because the majority of Canadian wealth, power and industry are in this region and now the USA controls them... also the amount of land they gained isn't that much compared to all of canada, thus easier to occupy.

But this approach also leaves the rest of Canada as a new republic based off the American system.. also Quebec most likely will be granted independence creating 2 new Canadian states dependent upon the USA for protection but not directly apart of the USA

So your prosposing to annex all the tax centers of the nation, while leaving the rest without any major economic or government infastructure to govern itself

I'm sorry, but if your going to annex all those areas, you might as well annex the rest.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

lol i guess you could say that but the USA will miss out on all that Canadian oil later down the road lol

It seems impossible to conquer Canada without getting stuck in a bloody partisan war afterall it took the USA 10 years to subdue the Fillipino rebels and Canada is 15X bigger... wonder how long it will take to subdue Canada but at the same time you can not take some land from Canada if war breaks out with G.B

 

[BrotherToAll]

Maybe the Americans just annex British Columbia and the Yukon territory in order to connect Alaska to the lower 48? I also agree that the American victory with out a shot fired would mean more then any military victory because the message it sends is "We're America and we're so badass that even the dominions of the might Emipre fear us.". Which would be a huge image boost domestically and abroad. Though I think the US will dominate North and South America in the proposed TL I really don't see the Royal Navay letting the Americans romp around too close to Europe. Britian will put up a fight but the huge blow from losing Canada will essentially seal the fate of their holidngs and interest in the Americas but they will still dominate the Easter Atlantic and of course the Western Pacific since really any time before the latter half of the 1920's no nation had a navy that could match the sheer size and might of the Royal Navy.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

lol i guess you could say that but the USA will miss out on all that Canadian oil later down the road lol

It seems impossible to conquer Canada without getting stuck in a bloody partisan war afterall it took the USA 10 years to subdue the Fillipino rebels and Canada is 15X bigger... wonder how long it will take to subdue Canada but at the same time you can not take some land from Canada if war breaks out with G.B

Thats the problem you and Zod seem to hung up on.

Canada at this time would not allow itself to enter a state of war with the states.

Such a movement towards war wouldn't be some kind of spontaneous fling of the moment. Canada will know its coming, even if Britain doesn't, and head it off at the pass.

Besides, really early free trade would allow America access to all that oil down the line.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Maybe the Americans just annex British Columbia and the Yukon territory in order to connect Alaska to the lower 48? I also agree that the American victory with out a shot fired would mean more then any military victory because the message it sends is "We're America and we're so badass that even the dominions of the might Emipre fear us.". Which would be a huge image boost domestically and abroad. Though I think the US will dominate North and South America in the proposed TL I really don't see the Royal Navay letting the Americans romp around too close to Europe. Britian will put up a fight but the huge blow from losing Canada will essentially seal the fate of their holidngs and interest in the Americas but they will still dominate the Easter Atlantic and of course the Western Pacific since really any time before the latter half of the 1920's no nation had a navy that could match the sheer size and might of the Royal Navy.

Again Canada will do everything to prevent a partition.

As the situation between American and Britain worsens, Canada will start to take a more active role in making sure nothing goes wrong. As events start reeling out of control and war between Britain and America becomes clear, their will be moves in the Canadian government. By this time, Ottawa will have men in Washington trying to calm everything down, and when Britain continues to push the buttons, Canadians will begin to frustrated. Eventualy, as all things come, the Canadian envoys would have orders t ensure Canadian neutrality (read: we give up). Some levels of the American government would probably know what was going to happen.

 

[Jord839]

Good TL, Zod. I've heard this idea many times but few TL's are devoted to it.

On the issue of Canada, I would agree with the earlier posters make it a republic. However, you could have the US constantly and purposefully increasing American influence in the region so that in about 20 years or so a plebscite could unite North America due to Canada being defacto part of the US anyway. It also keeps the US from abandoning its "anti-imperialist" position.

I also would steer clear of making this an exact mirror of OTL, maybe let Britain keep a significant portion of its colonies in the south pacific(India, australia, New zealand, possibly South Africa) and take away the rest. That way there's actually a threat still from the British empire in regards to the next war.

I look forward to more.

 

[BrotherToAll]

Again Canada will do everything to prevent a partition.

As the situation between American and Britain worsens, Canada will start to take a more active role in making sure nothing goes wrong. As events start reeling out of control and war between Britain and America becomes clear, their will be moves in the Canadian government. By this time, Ottawa will have men in Washington trying to calm everything down, and when Britain continues to push the buttons, Canadians will begin to frustrated. Eventualy, as all things come, the Canadian envoys would have orders t ensure Canadian neutrality (read: we give up). Some levels of the American government would probably know what was going to happen.

And in one fell swoop the Canadians not only secure their nation but also have a good chance to profit from selling what manufactured goods they produce at them time as well as natural reources and food products to the US to support the American war effort. All in all the Candians goes down with out a shot but actually comes out for the better any way. I'm just happy that Canada would remain America's loyal and awsome hat and the US would continue to be Canada's comfy pants.

 

[Don Draper]

The Anglo-American relationship is not the Anglo-German relationship OTL. This Anglo-American war seems unrealistic, due to many things that have been said(business ties, etc, greater identification). This is a war that would see the British continental allies being overrun. Why would they then alienate to the point of war the one nation whose power could turn the tide?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

i think it would be interesting if USA makes a so called United States of North America at the expense of G.B , Canada and Mexico and becomes a superpower as a result of the alliance between German,Italy, and Russia, Only to be the country that supplies the capital required to rebuild G.B , France and Spain and then allies with them in WWII if that war ever happens

 

[Hades]

what would a cold war look like with an Uber usa, Russia and Italy vying for domination?#

And what would happen to China? Devoured by Japan and Russia?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

this TL will be even more interesting than it is right now when it enters the 40's and 50's