The Turks: Sliced but not carved

[Deleted member 109224]

One issue I think of about the Ottomans in a CP victory is that by the end of the war they had already lost most of their territory.

By November 1917, they'd already lost Hijaz, Baghdad, Jerusalem, and Aqaba. They've also lost nominal authority over Tunis, Egypt, and Cyprus. They aren't going to gain back those lands, and their only territorial gains were Kars and Batumi.

The Germans were interested in dominating the Caucasus. Perhaps the Turks could gain Rhodes, Erevan, and the disputed Aegean islands, but their other gains will be limited. Would they really be willing to fight with Germany (diplomatically or otherwise) over the Caucasus and (perhaps) Crimea? I'm not sure.


What will be the ultimate fate of the Ottoman Empire in a CP victory in which they don't fare too well anyway?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

One issue I think of about the Ottomans in a CP victory is that by the end of the war they had already lost most of their territory.

By November 1917, they'd already lost Hijaz, Baghdad, Jerusalem, and Aqaba. They've also lost nominal authority over Tunis, Egypt, and Cyprus. They aren't going to gain back those lands, and their only territorial gains were Kars and Batumi.

The Germans were interested in dominating the Caucasus. Perhaps the Turks could gain Rhodes, Erevan, and the disputed Aegean islands, but their other gains will be limited. Would they really be willing to fight with Germany (diplomatically or otherwise) over the Caucasus and (perhaps) Crimea? I'm not sure.


What will be the ultimate fate of the Ottoman Empire in a CP victory in which they don't fare too well anyway?

Looking at the Caucasus, baring some truely impressive course of events that result in a German-friendly Don-Kuban region (And neither the Reds or Whites are going to be very happy with the Kaiserreich) I think the Germans will figure its better to dominate the Caucasus economically while leaving the political-military burdan to the Turks. They'd need to keep the Ottomans friendly anyways even if they controlled the region to have a route for logistics and to get the oil out, and running it directly would be a huge strain, so why not earn some good will by letting Constantinople have Azerbaijan, Chechnya, ect. ? German firms will end up owning the mineral and energy interests anyways. Plus, it would help alleviate any sting of compelling them to sign territories in Arabia away to the British and strengthen the Pro-German forces' ideal of a Pan-Turkic state to build a new, stable identity on.

As for the Levant, the stock answer is "Draw the borders where the front lines are", but I don't think that's fair. Britain isen't going to be able to renegade so easily on her promise to the Hashimites and just take the territory for herself if there's a "Cold War" going on between her and Germany, as if the Arabs feel betrayed they might just turn back to the Ottomans who can funnel in support for them now. If I had to take a stab at it, I'd say the peace terms would involve a careful diplomatic dance between the Ottomans, Hashmite, and British, with the minimum remaining Ottoman borders including the Mosul and Halep/Aleppo Vilayets and the deserts between them in the south. More broadly, I think line generally around the southern Mosul Vilayet border extended to the Med. (So, leaving the Ottomans roughly with modern-day Syria and Lebanon), with the southern two-thirds of Iraq, the Transjordan, and Israel/Palestine being integrated with the Hejaz and Jabal Shammar territories into a Hashmite Arabia could work.