The Turbulent Rage of the Winds and Waves

Darkest

Banned
Throughout the world, everywhere we are all brothers. Why then do the winds and waves rage so turbulently?” – Emperor Meiji

This is a very rough draft for a timeline I've been putting together for the last few days. You can see that a lot of it is missing, especially the implications on Nazi Germany. Please give suggestions and comments.

Some may call this an alternate timeline with multiple points of divergence. I suggest a single POD, somewhere in the world, unnamed and of impact on only day-to-day life, that breeds butterflies that specifically lead to the changes I make in the beginning, without outside change. A lot of this has to do with the early development of German synthetic fuel technologies, so, please bear with me. Also, all italicized sentences are behind-the-scenes information, for those that want to determine plausibility. For those that desire an easy-to-read timeline, do not read the italics.

1932 – An American scientist, an official at the US Bureau of Mines, forms a relationship with Fritz Haber. They send letters every other year. [This is the German scientist responsible for the Haber Process, and a Nobel Peace Prize winner.]

1933 – March: Fritz Haber, through letters from his American friend, learns of the Karrick Process. He forwards this information to Carl Bosch.

[A system of creating synthetic fuel that was twice as efficient as the more widely used Bergius Process. Haber attains the concept and basic technical information behind the technique. Both Haber and his American friend are warned by the government that they should refrain from technological exchange, and Haber did not want to technologically strengthen the Nazis, but at the time the Nazi government was pushing to force him out of the country due to his Jewish ancestry. Because of this, Haber is able to convince his American friend to send information on the Karrick Process that had been gathered at that time, in order to gain leverage with the Nazis. Carl Bosch was a fellow Nobel prize winner who had worked with him many times, and an important director of the company IG Farben, a good choice to help Fritz Haber with his problem. ]

June: Carl Bosch does what he can to help his friend, but in the end his influence does little for him. Fritz leaves for England. He sends the information on the Karrick Process to fellow Nobel Prize Winner, Friedrich Bergius. Bergius assigns a development team under Dr. Bernd Dresner to utilize the information given to them and begin experiments with the process. [Friedrich Bergius was the inventor of the Bergius Process which in OTL was the main process used in Germany for coal liquefaction. Dresner is a fictional character that could have been.]

1934 – April: Dr. Bernd Dresner puts his name on the Dresner Synthesis, which is believed to have been perfected. The team is given more funding and assigned to build a test plant.

June: Newly appointed Japanese ambassador to Germany, Inoue Kôjirô, pushes for a technological exchange.

1936 – January: IG Farben’s test plant on Dresner synthesis has brought important discoveries with the technology, and has proved much of the technology’s efficiency both in terms of thermal energy and building requirements.

1936 – October: In a conference on increasing oil production, Germany includes the Dresner synthesis technology in plans concerning synthetic fuel plants. [This is downplayed somewhat due to it being a relatively new technology.]

November 22: Germany and Japan sign the Anti-Comintern Pact. [As in OTL.]

1937 – January: As part of a small opening technological exchange between the two empires, Japan attains a deal with IG Farben to build two modern synthetic fuel plants in Hokkaido and Manchuoko. One of the plants will be in fact a large-scale Dresner synthesis plant, as an experiment for IG Farben to learn from. Japan also agrees to send a prototype reconnaissance plane to Germany.

July 7: The undeclared Second Sino-Japanese War begins. [It occurs much the same as OTL.]

December 12: The Panay Incident does not occur. Japanese sailors recognize that the USN Panay gunboat is an American ship. [American opinion does not turn sharply against the Japanese. Before the Panay Incident, a good portion of the American population had been on the Japanese’ side. Moreover, the Japanese do not need to pay the Americans two million dollars in reparations.]

1938 – April to August: IG Farben completes its synthetic fuel plants in the Japanese Empire. The “flawless Western concept and German design” of the two plants provide a great example to the Japanese scientists and engineers within the industry for which they can learn from. The two plants are estimated to provide nearly 100,000 tons of synthetic fuel per year for the Japanese.

[More important over time. Japan had experimented with synthetic fuels since the 1920s, but was unable to realize the necessity of a test-pilot plant stage. In OTL, an attempt to construct synthetic fuel plants throughout the Empire was abandoned because they could not make the transition from small-scale to large-scale. The German example provides the understanding they need.]

1939 – January: Lurgi AG, a German corporation, approves a plan to build a bituminous coal factory near Beijang and a gasification factory in Hokkaido. [In OTL, they had flirted with the idea. With IG Farben’s Japanese deal a success, it convinces enough personalities to receive approval.]

September 1: Poland is invaded. World War 2 in Europe has begun. [It goes largely the same as in OTL. Our focus now is elsewhere.]

1940 - September 19th: Germany and Japan sign the Tripartite Pact, forming the Axis Powers. [As in OTL, six days earlier.]

April 3rd: The Soviet Union and Japan sign the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact. [As in OTL, ten days earlier.]

1940 – January: The United States terminates its commerce treaty with Japan, which will allow it to impose trade embargoes.

September 24th: Vichy France signs the Hanoi Pact, ceding airfields to Japan and agreeing to admission of troops into northern Indochina in Tongking.

1941 – January: The United States bans the shipment of aviation gasoline to Japan, and denies Japan access to the Panama Canal, over the invasion of Indochina.

March 14th: An undeclared war between the French and the natives in French Indochina, thought to be initiated by the revanchist Thai, turns exceedingly violent with the use of artillery in the guerilla warfare in the southern part of the country. Japanese soldiers are used against native rebellion, and mediate the conflict. The French begin giving over many parts of the government and economy to the Japanese, including a monopoly over the Indochinese rice crop and air ports throughout the territory. The Japanese also begin pushing for the French to allow the Thai to reclaim some of their lost territory.

June 22nd: Germany invades the Soviet Union with Operation Barbarossa. [As in OTL, on schedule.]

June 25th: Japan calls for more than 1 million conscripts into the Imperial Army.

July 6th: Japan recalls her merchant ships from the Atlantic.

August 2nd: Japan occupies all of French Indochina at the permission of Vichy France.

September 23rd: During the Battle of Changsha, Japan’s second attempt to take the Chinese city, the city’s defenses is sabotaged by several hundred Japanese troops dressed in plain clothes. Heavy fighting breaks out, but though the Chinese take very heavy casualties, their numbers win them the battle. [In OTL, they failed to sabotage the city’s defenses, leading to their rapid defeat.]

October 20th: The United States freezes all assets in Japan and China, and initiates an oil embargo against the Japanese Empire. Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe begins immediately to seek peace terms with the United States, while the Japanese government spends the next week debating the future course of the Empire.

October 23rd: It is determined that, at the current rates of production, the Japanese Empire will only have enough oil for 24 months and 24 days, nearly half that much if they go to war with the United States.

October 25th: The “Fuel and China” doctrine is adopted by the Japanese government, led by the ultranationalist, pacifist Toho Kai faction. The Emperor, the Prime Minister, and the Navy all agree that facing the United States would be far too dangerous of a move at that time. The doctrine also warns that for the prosperity of the Japanese Empire, they must do two things: ruin the Chinese enemy and claim victory as soon as possible and keep oil flowing. As long as they can attain these two items, they decide to make any concession to the United States.

November 4th: The Japanese partially demobilizes their military out of French Indochina, cutting the number of soldiers by 50%, and limiting naval presence to only a small battle group outside of non-military craft. This is made as a concession towards the United States.

November 10th: Summit begins between Japan and the United States in Honolulu, Hawaii over terms to end the embargo. Prime Minister Konoe discusses leaving the Axis Powers, or at least refusing to exchange technology, in order to resume American oil imports.

November 13th: Two realizations are made during an Imperial Conference. First, self-sufficiency of oil and fuel had to be built up as soon as possible, using synthetic fuel technologies. This could not be done, however, with China still such a hostile foe. Nakano Seigo, head of the Toho Kai faction, launches into his initiative to consolidate conquests and begin to debate peace terms with the enemy. The Navy and Army are concerned of the Philippine threat to their southern conquered ports. Before consolidation could begin, more territory would have to be conquered to connect the Army from the North with the southern coastline dominated by the Navy. Though neither wants to work together, the plan allows the Imperial Army to make territorial gains, and the Navy to preserve the Empire. Also, it is decided that the Army might be prevented from launching their offensive if a peace settlement is made too soon with the United States. They order representatives to stall for time.

November 20th: The Imperial Army begins to rapidly expand their numbers.

December 4th: 270,000 Japanese soldiers under 9 divisions move to take Changsha, though they face substantial resistance from Chinese armies.

December 25th: On Christmas Day, the Japanese announce their victory over the Chinese at the Battle of Changsha, though guerilla soldiers remain throughout the nearby mountains. The battle is acclaimed as a major victory for the Japanese throughout the conquered territory and into the Home Islands.

December 28th: Operation Ichigo is being developed to allow the Japanese to consolidate their holdings by taking a continuous railway connection from Central China all the way to Indochina. It is determined that it could take anywhere from five to eight months. The Japanese Empire would have only ten months of before stockpiled fuel began running out.

1942 – January 4th: Government sets into motion a large-scale, nationwide project to build synthetic fuel plants, twenty throughout Japan, Manchuoko, and Korea.

February 10th: Operation Ichigo begins. Its aim is to overwhelm the Chinese with as many men as possible to create a continuous railway connection from Manchuoko to Southeast Asia as soon as possible. 17 divisions, 400,000 men, 11,000 vehicles, and 60,000 horses are planned to participate.

March 2nd: Imperial Japanese Army forces, mainly consisting of the 2nd Tank Division, attacks Luoyang.

March 18th: Luoyang falls to the Japanese.

July 5th: Hengyang is taken by the Japanese after significant casualties, damaging the Imperial Japanese Army far more than they had believed.

July 28th: The Imperial Japanese Army has captured Guilin and Liuzhou, sending the Chinese on the retreat.

August 10th: The Japanese claim control of more than 75% of the Guangxi Province. Operation Ichigo has officially ended, and the imperial government claims a massive victory, though they had paid much for it, and left many pockets of resistance throughout China in their mad dash to the South. The Emperor orders the Japanese on the defensive, to lengthen the amount of time their fuel stockpile will last them.

August 23rd: Mamoru Shigemitsu, Japanese ambassador to the United States, meets with his counterpart Sir Robert Craigie at Singapore for a secret British-Japanese summit.

September 5th: The Craigie-Shigemitsu Pact is signed at Singapore. The Japanese agree to withdraw two-thirds of their current standing military from southern Indochina below Tongking, and a third of the troops in Tongking. In return, the British acknowledge Japan’s freedom to “make peace” with China (accepting any current and further territorial gains from the conflict), and the two powers vow neutrality when dealing with each other. [Though Shigemitsu had pushed for an article to close the Burma Road, he had to make concessions, and the Road remains open. The agreement was signed because the British had a strong desire to focus all of their manpower and military equipment on Europe, and they did not want to worry about Japan any longer. Almost all remaining soldiers and ships in the region are sent west, only a small military force left in Hong Kong, while militias and policing forces are built up to provide security. Burma and Bengal are also demilitarized to provide more men in the west.]

September 25th: Japanese enter intense bargains with the Dutch to lift the oil embargo and send aviation fuel. The Dutch East Indies government remains, however, very stubborn about the issue. The Japanese have only three months left of stockpiles, having been relieved somewhat by new acquisitions in China.

October 5th: The Japanese resume light trading with the British, and they buy nothing but fuel.

October 11th: Japan attains a temporary deal with the Dutch East Indies to attain oil for civilian uses on a restricted monthly basis. A committee determines the fuel could keep the Empire functioning for another five months, giving the Japanese the time they need to get new plants built up north. At the news of the deal, the Imperial Japanese Army demands supplies for an offensive to eradicate a pocket of Chinese resistance in southern Henan, and to bolster fortifications along the Manchuoko-Tongking Road.

November 12th: Prime Minister Konoe enters into negotiations with Frederick Delano Roosevelt and Cordell Hull for a settlement at Juneau, Alaska. Many proposals are tossed around.

December 4th: The Treaty of Juneau is signed. The Empire of Japan agrees to not make war with Allied nations for five years after an armistice with Germany is made. Japan will stop all further military action in China and seek an armistice with the Chinese. In return, the United States will supply Japan with 350,000 gallons of aviation fuel, and a monthly supply of fuel for civilian use, mirroring the agreement made with the Dutch. Numbers of naval units throughout the Pacific Ocean are to be fixed between America and Japan for the next ten years, unless the consent of the two nations agrees otherwise.

December 10th: Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini join together and declare that the Empire of Japan is no longer a friend of the Axis Powers. German personnel leave immediately.

December 14th: Emperor Showa declares that the drastic initiatives will continue in constructing synthetic fuel plants.

1943 – February to March: Four synthetic fuel plants begin producing fuel, though these first have been rushed through and will be much less efficient than the German plants. One of the Korean plants attempts to make use of Dresner synthesis technologies, but more than anything fails in realizing its ultimate potential.

May to June: Nine synthetic fuel plants are completed. Thanks to a longer period of time spent determining locations for them, these turn out to be very profitable.

August to October: The last seven synthetic fuel plants issued by the 1941 declaration begin producing. Four of them are large Dresner synthetic facilities, and in these the Japanese have gotten them mostly right. The Emperor calls the initiative a success, and promises more advances in the technology, and more fuel. Together, the twenty plants produce approximately 1,060,000 tons of oil, including aviation fuel, providing nearly a fifth of Japan’s fuel consumption.

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The British wouldn't demilitarize Burma or Bengal completely, the Indian Army would stay in place as the British can't afford to transfer them to the west, and doesn't really want them fighting there. For this reason, the embedded British troops would also stay, to keep an eye on them.

Singapore would also stay garrisoned in force, its the linchpin of British Asian strategy.

There would probably be a draw down of British and Commonwealth (but not Imperial, i.e. Indian) forces in the region, but it won't happen immediately (due to shipping as well as not trusting the Japanese), probably staggered over at least a year, but nothing like demilitarization.

On oil from the NEI, the Japanese aren't likely to get substantial supplies from there, as I believe the great bulk of production was earmarked for the Allies by the Dutch government-in-exile, even if the formal embargo ends, it will be mostly symbolic.
 

Darkest

Banned
I didn't go into any detail on what is happening in the United States with no Pearl Harbor, or in the Third Reich with the Dresner process and no Pearl Harbor. Like I said, rough draft. The war isn't over, though, I'll tell you that. I'll get back to finishing the rest a little later.

Good suggestion on the British troop movements, Alratan. I may have moved too many of them too quickly. And, the NEI has merely opened up their oil for purchase, which means that the Japanese have an actual chance of getting some instead of starving under the embargo. Mostly just fuel for civilian purposes, in small shipments. Still, it'll help in making the stockpiles last a little longer.
 
'The Americans did not just ban oil exports to Japan. They are also banned steel exports . This also hurt the Japanese and is not covered in the AH.
 

Darkest

Banned
True, true, very true. I would assume that they need a slightly less amount of steel since all the attention has been put into the Imperial Japanese Army and not the Navy. And, of course, they are gaining a lot more territory, which means more iron resources.

Furthermore, in my research on proposals that were imagined by one side or another for peace, it always mentioned oil, not steel. I would think that oil would be the largest problem for the Japanese Empire, but steel is definitely up there.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'm glad this is only a rough draft.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Why would the U.S effectively BUY peace with Japan? The math is all on the American side. IT is important to remember WHY the embargo was enacted in the first place, namely to force the Japanese to return to Status Quo Ante. The TL, as written to date, seems to allow the Japanese to keep everything that they have gained by force of arms, provide them with desperately needed fuel and gains nothing except a paper promise. Paper promises had fallen somewhat out of favor post-Chamberlin, and nowhere near enough time has passed to change this fact.

The British would NEVER have done anything that would have weakened either Singapore, or, especially, the Raj. By this timke the Raj IS, for all intents, The Empire. Nothing would be allowed to threaten that, nothing. Loo at almost every piece of strategy the British undertook in the Middle East, it was all directed at the Suez, because the Suez was critical to the supplies from the Raj, and these supplies were critical to the survival of the Empire.

The TL also seem to ignore the REASON that the Japanese attacked the U.S. when they did. They had no choice, to wait was to lose. The American Fleet Remoderization Act's were already well underway (USS Essex is infact launched before the 12/4/42 date of the "Juneau Treaty") and the Japanese were about to be overwhelmed with new American production. It is extremely unlikely that the U.S., which by 12/42 was aware of the Yamato & her sisters (built in violation of EXISTING Treaty obligations) would allow themselves to be stopped by another Japanese paper promise.

The realities of the European War, the proved aggression of Japan (which ITTL is FAR more successful than IOTL), the dangers that are clearly represented by both the Reich & Imperial Japan, make it vanishingly unlikely that the U.S. would agree to any limitation on arms, especially when it has become clear that peace is best kept with bigger battalions.

I will be interested to see how you keep the U.S. out of a war with the Reich, especially since one had existed for months before 12/7/41 in all but name.

I would also note that synthetic fuel production leaves much to be desired. Even the level you have posited would be a remarkable achievement, especially for an island empire with no domestic resources. If Synthetics were as easy to produce as your TL seems to imply, there would be no OPEC. It is not a simple thing to do, nor is it a simple thing to maintain. Even in the U.S., wed as we are to cheap oil, we do not make any significant use of synthetics as fuel sources, despite the ready availability of massive amounts of coal, ethenol, & vegetable oils. (BTW:Given the difficulties of transporting the raw materiels, I can see no reasonable way to do anything but refine the fuels at the point of production. All this would do is expose Japanese tankers to systemic attacks as occurred IOTL when the inevitible war begins)

In any case, I am sure you will find a way around these concerns. Best of luck with your TL
 

Darkest

Banned
Synthetic fuel is will by no means alleviate the Japanese oil problem? It could at least help. If the Japanese understood the idea of a test plant stage, it could help them quite a bit in making synthetic fuel plants. Manchuria and central China has coal... it seems like it would help if the Japanese could get this going.

Also, CalBear, I'm not intending for any 'inevitable war' between the Japanese and the United States. I want the Japanese to stay neutral, while also gaining at least part of China. Secondly, I wanted the United States to declare war on Nazi Germany in early 1942, thus allowing them to make some concessions to the Japanese to avoid a two-front war.

So, in order to maximize the Japanese Empire without going too far back in history (ie, they take the Philippines or beat down the IJA to comply with the government early on)... I have two ideas.

A) The British and Japanese were in OTL early 1942 discussing an end to their war. The Japanese would keep North China, maybe Shandong as well, make peace with the Chinese, while the British would take back Malaya, Singapore, and all of their possessions. Could the Japanese get away with pulling back that far? I don't think so.

B) Kill off FDR, or prevent him from running in 1940. Keep America more isolationist. However, I really did want to destroy Nazi Germany sooner than OTL, to give rise to a three-sided cold war. I don't know if that's possible without FDR.

Any suggestions. My goals are: A) Japan stays out of the war, or maybe even joins the Allies and B) the Japanese Empire makes as many gains in China or elsewhere as possible.

EDIT: Hey, what about a civil war between the Army and the Navy somewhere? That might be interesting.
the proved aggression of Japan (which ITTL is FAR more successful than IOTL) said:
Actually, it wasn't that more successful. Changsha is taken a little earlier, but just because the Japanese sabotage their defenses and pull in twice as many men to take the place. This before it is bolstered by American military equipment. Operation Ichigo was launched in 1942, two years earlier than in OTL (1944), and it takes longer to accomplish ITTL than in OTL, EVEN THOUGH there isn't an American airforce to harass the Japanese, and American weapons haven't arrived in full as in OTL. Sure, the Japanese Army might be less experienced, and the new tanks are out... but I think thats an even trade in-trade out, you know? Other than Changsha and an earlier Operation Ichigo, China is almost exactly the same as in OTL.
 
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CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Synthetic fuel is will by no means alleviate the Japanese oil problem? It could at least help. If the Japanese understood the idea of a test plant stage, it could help them quite a bit in making synthetic fuel plants. Manchuria and central China has coal... it seems like it would help if the Japanese could get this going.

Also, CalBear, I'm not intending for any 'inevitable war' between the Japanese and the United States. I want the Japanese to stay neutral, while also gaining at least part of China. Secondly, I wanted the United States to declare war on Nazi Germany in early 1942, thus allowing them to make some concessions to the Japanese to avoid a two-front war.

So, in order to maximize the Japanese Empire without going too far back in history (ie, they take the Philippines or beat down the IJA to comply with the government early on)... I have two ideas.

A) The British and Japanese were in OTL early 1942 discussing an end to their war. The Japanese would keep North China, maybe Shandong as well, make peace with the Chinese, while the British would take back Malaya, Singapore, and all of their possessions. Could the Japanese get away with pulling back that far? I don't think so.

B) Kill off FDR, or prevent him from running in 1940. Keep America more isolationist. However, I really did want to destroy Nazi Germany sooner than OTL, to give rise to a three-sided cold war. I don't know if that's possible without FDR.

Any suggestions. My goals are: A) Japan stays out of the war, or maybe even joins the Allies and B) the Japanese Empire makes as many gains in China or elsewhere as possible.

EDIT: Hey, what about a civil war between the Army and the Navy somewhere? That might be interesting.
the proved aggression of Japan (which ITTL is FAR more successful than IOTL) said:
Actually, it wasn't that more successful. Changsha is taken a little earlier, but just because the Japanese sabotage their defenses and pull in twice as many men to take the place. This before it is bolstered by American military equipment. Operation Ichigo was launched in 1942, two years earlier than in OTL (1944), and it takes longer to accomplish ITTL than in OTL, EVEN THOUGH there isn't an American airforce to harass the Japanese, and American weapons haven't arrived in full as in OTL. Sure, the Japanese Army might be less experienced, and the new tanks are out... but I think thats an even trade in-trade out, you know? Other than Changsha and an earlier Operation Ichigo, China is almost exactly the same as in OTL.

I have to stress the inevitability of the U.S./Japanese conflict, assuming no radical change in Japan's outlook, far beyond any so far described. There was no way for the U.S & Imperial Japan to peacefully coexist. Both nations required, as a minimal strategic position, control over at least 2/3 of the Pacific, the U.S. requiring hegmony for at least 500 miles beyond the Hawaiin Islands, as well as complete security for the supply lines to the Philippines, Wake & Guam. Japan required the same control over the Formosa approaches (which overlap the approaches to parts of the Philippines), unfettered access to trade with French Indochina & the Dutch East Indies, and a security bubble around Saipan.

Since the Philippines lie along the direct routes from Indochina & the Indies & the Home Islands, Japan copuld not, from a strategic perspective, allow the U.S. to remain a dominant presence there (even the original plans for Philippine independence called for powerful U.S. military basing rights). Conversely, the U.S. could not allow Japan free reign in the South China Sea, due to the impact on Philippine security.

The situation in the Marianas was even more difficult. Here the Countries both had possessions vital to their strategic interests. Guam provided an ideal location to support the Philippines, and Saipan was critical to the defensive position of the Home Island of the Empire.

The problems presented by these strategic concerns, coupled with American concerns for their Hawaiian and Alaskan territories, would have caused huge stressors between two countries with a long friendly history. The U.S. & Japan had no such history. Simply put, both countries were in the other's way. Without some compelling outside force preventing one (be it a third, far more powerful nation, or a version of MAD, such as that which prevented the USSR & U.S. from coming to blows over very similar issues), a war was a virtual certainty. The fact that Japan was as expressly aggressive nation/state, with a clearly demonstrated desire to expand during the late Imperial Period, simply put the time of the conflict sooner rather than later.

To avoid these conflicting strategic requirements a massive change in conditions for either the U.S. or Japan is necessary. Given your currently stated conditions for the POD, these changes become ASBish. There is simply no way to deconflict the U.S. and Japanese requirements unless you butterfly away America's Manifest Destinity mindset or Japan's expansionist efforts. If either of these extremes are utilized the resulting world is so very different from OTL as to be unreconizable. With the world you present with the current POD (i.e. OTL with some minor tweaks) the U.S. & Japan would be at war within five years, probably less, from the 12/4/42 Juneau Treaty.

Such a war, coming, as it would from your description of U.S./Nazi conflict, with a U.S. literally armed to the teeth & with millions of veteran troops and battle tested equipment (and, one would suspect, nuclear weapons) would result in the same ending as that IOTL. The only way to avoid such a conflict would be for Japan to become what it is IOTL, a largely demilitarized state which does not present any MILITARY challenge to the U.S. or for the U.S. to find itself in the same position as Japan does today. How that would be achievable without one of the nations being utterly defeated in a massively destructive war is difficult to conceptulize.

To your other points - I would agree that it is almost impossible to create the three sided Cold war you posit without FDR, or a virtual clone of him, in the White House. It is also critical that there be some outrage visited upon the U.S. (e.g. OTL's Pearl Harbor) that would set the American people off on a crusade. This was (and still is) necessary to turn America from the friendly family dog it normally is into the Avenging Angel of Death that NUKED Japan and bombed Germany flat.

I also agree that Japan would be hard pressed to make the concessions you outline to the UK. This is less due to the morale or public opinion impact of such a decision on Japan, but due to the aforementioned Japanese strategic requirements regarding control of the Pacific, specifically trade with Indochina & the Indies. Singapore & the Malay Peninsula are perfectly located to threaten those requirements.

Regarding open conflict between the Japanese Army & Navy: It would be fun to write, but impossible in reality. The Emperor could, and would, have been able to stop it with a word. The two services were intense rivals, neither of them were traitors.

Lastly, I would suggest that a true three sided Cold War is a practical impossibility. In all cases the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" axiom would, sooner or later, come into play. This did not happen IOTL becase the PRC was never sufficiently powerful to present a true third power center. Had that condition ever presented itself, it is likely that the resultant destabilization would have resulted in conflict within five, at the most, ten, years.

Once again, these are my thoughts. It will be your TL to craft as you see fit. Best of luck with it.
 
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Darkest

Banned
A three-sided cold war would be hard to engineer. One of the superpowers would most likely choose the lesser of two evils and join with one superpower against another. Still... if it was a matter of ideology... Probably not, I digress.

I also believe that both the United States and Japan could exist for a time as two large competing 'empires'. All Japan needs to do is expand as much as possible without getting involved in an oil embargo or war, especially with the United States, then attain nuclear weapons. As the 20th century progresses, there will be less of a desire for war. I would think, however, that the Japanese Empire would collapse sooner than the Soviet Union, on account of the hundreds of millions of angry, nationalist Chinese, probably supported with arms from the USSR.

Could Britain, Free France, and the USSR defeat Nazi Germany eventually without American intervention? As long as they have the Lend-Lease? That's really difficult to say. Maybe if Nazi Germany suffered a little more from the beginning. But the sheer manpower... ouch, that's going to cost the USSR and Britain quite a bit by themselves. Maybe if the French put up more of a fight... there are so many PODs available for World War 2.

What if Japan could somehow becoming the non-military oriented, economic power it is today without the World War? Some would argue against that, that firebombing and American aid allowed them to modernize their infrastructure during reconstruction. It becomes America's ally, but keeps naval and army forces. China becomes a Republic, somehow the Communists are expelled from the country. During the Cold War, the United States of America supports Japan in creating an 'East Asian Union' similiar to the EU.

No anti-Japanese feelings throughout East Asia, and with Japan as the leading industrial and economic power, it works. East Asian Union starts building up so that it can fight the spread of communist states. It takes up at least East China and maybe even Indochina and Indonesia.

The Chinese rise to 'superpower' status we see today happens in TTL, only sooner, and more effectively as its not just China, but all of East Asia. The Vietnam War doesn't totally destabilize Indochina, might even have a chance to become an 'Asian Tiger' nation.

What do you think CalBear? Also, if you don't mind, I've been waiting for a critique of my Sidney ATL from you, my friend. To see if its remotely possible. If you're in to that kinda thing.
 
December 12:1937; The Panay Incident does not occur. Japanese sailors recognize that the USN Panay gunboat is an American ship. [American opinion does not turn sharply against the Japanese. Before the Panay Incident, a good portion of the American population had been on the Japanese’ side. Moreover, the Japanese do not need to pay the Americans two million dollars in reparations.]
1940 - September 19th: Germany and Japan sign the Tripartite Pact, forming the Axis Powers. [As in OTL, six days earlier.]
Here is your Change; due to no Panay Incident --Japan/China Conflict has remained a non Headline in most American newspapers.
Someone up the Diplomatic ladder recognizes this, and persuades the Powers that Be, to cut back on ties with Germany. Japan does NOT join the Axis.

June 22nd: 1941 Germany invades the Soviet Union with Operation Barbarossa. [As in OTL, on schedule.]
You mean== as in OTL ?one month? Late

July 1941: Japan strikes a trade deal with the USSR. As part of the Deal-- Russia begins pressing the US to lift the Embargo on Japan.


And yes I know about the Reports of Panay being a deliberate action and not a Mistake, but No Attack is part of His TL; & this [mine] POD
 
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Darkest

Banned
You are definitely right DuQuense, I should have used that part of my ATL to more of an effect. The only thing I'm worried about is Germany continuing to supply the Chinese with arms. Then again, it can't be as bad as the Americans.

This, coupled with maybe Chiang Kai-shek being killed in the Central Plains War in 1930, or maybe when he is captured by the Communists... could give the Japanese the fighting edge they need. Or does that seem more like a Nippowank? (lol... Nippowank)
 
So, Darkest, you want a cold war with the Empire of Japan on the same power level as the USA and USSR? No offense to your TL, but I don't think that Japan's going to become that strong. Also, I agree with CalBear on the inevitability of a US-Japan conflict.
 
Anyone with significant industrial capacity following WWII has a major jump-start on th road to superpower status. The key here is for decolonization to play exactly into Tokyo's hands, "Asia for Asians" and all that. Heck, have the Imperials plant spies in DEI and foment revolt then set up a pro-Tokyo government. Rinse and repeat throughout S Asia.
 

Darkest

Banned
I don't mind if theres a conflict. I just want the cold war to last for a little while. A decade and a half even, would be ideal.

I like the idea of first: Chiang Kai-shek getting killed off earlier, Japan gaining Soviet aid, joining the Allies and then doing what they did in OTL with the invasion of Asia.
 

Darkest

Banned
I'm thinking of abandoning my synthetic fuel deal and just kill off Chiang Kai-shek in the Central Plains War of 1930, leaving China weak and vulnerable to Japanese attack.

However, what do you think would be A) more fun to write and B) lead to the longest lasting Japanese Empire? I could kill Chiang Kai-shek, or I could somehow get the Japanese and Chinese Nationalists to ally with each other against the Communists (both whom they hated).

All I need to do is postpone the Second Sino-Japanese War long enough for 1940 or 1941 to roll around the corner, for Operation Barbarossa, just in time for Japan and China to declare war on communists rather than each other. The Japanese had been preparing to fight the Soviets more than they had prepared for Southeast Asia. Maybe have both China and Japan join the Anti-Comintern Pact early on, eh?

So Japan starts moving north a month or two after Operation Barbarossa. It sends aid to the Chinese to get rid off communists within its borders (by 1941, without the Japanese war, Chiang Kai-shek may have made a few more strides against the Communists). Eventually... China and Japan meet up with Nazi Germany in the middle.

Then again, the United States and Britain would still be there to mop everybody up...

A third option is that Hitler is defeated early. Cold War begins in earnest, and the United States supports the Chinese and Japanese in their war against the Soviet Union, before they discover nuclear weapons. The Chinese-Japanese allies wind up annexing Mongolia and Soviet territory east of Baikal, call it the Far Eastern Republic, install puppet governments, and then they join a Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere together.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The IJA was utterly outclassed by the Red Army. A reasonable arguement can be made that the IJA never did really figure out combined arms operations.

Japan/China vs. even a fragment of the Red Army = USSR victory. Ivan might have had a lot of flaws, but ground combat against light infantry was never one of them.
 

Darkest

Banned
Alright then, thank you CalBear, Chiang Kai-shek dies in the Central Plains War it is, then. Combine that with no Panay Incident, Japan on the side of the Allies, well, Japan might have a chance for at least a while.

I don't intend this to be a Yamatowank (thanks for the term, Max). In my mind, a wank is where the nation focused upon inherits a continuous streak of horribly great fortune, bordering very closely to ASBs, and ultimately becomes the conquistador of the world. All I want is for the Empire of Japan to exist as a near superpower for at least a decade or two, as either itself or more probably as the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.
 
-Have Japan stay out of the war in Europe, probably by taking China before 1943. Oil was the biggest resource they lacked, they also need others of course.

-Japan runs China, Indochina, Korea, Taiwan, Pacific. They might focus on underwater mining as a means to get at additional resources. Meantime they focus on "Asia for Asians" and set up Tokyo-led GEACP with eventual NATO-like military treaty. Make the alliance itself a superpower running from New Guinea to Pakistan to Manchuria

-USSR and West work to beat them and stop each other's expansion, mostly in Africa and S America. Synthetic oil makes Middle East much less important in world politics.
 
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