True story: for a little while in Autumn 1945, insofar as anyone had a plan for Korea, it was to turn it into a United Nations Trust Territory.
Didn't work, obviously. But it wasn't completely daft, either. Both the US and the Soviets were taking this seriously in the first few months. The Soviets wanted a weakish, friendly or neutral Korea that couldn't be used as a launch pad by any other power (viz., the US or a revived Japan). The US wanted a Korea that wasn't Communist and that wouldn't be open to Soviet domination. There was room for negotiation.
Several things derailed this OTL. One was Syngman Rhee. Rhee wanted a Korea united under Rhee. Since Rhee was a mouth-breathing anti-Communist and also just generally a son-of-a-bitch, this caused problems.
-- I say Rhee instead of Kim Il Sung because at this point -- 1945, early '46 -- Kim was pretty completely reliant on the Soviets, and would have been compelled to follow their instructions. That would change, but a bit later. In the first year postwar, the Americans had Rhee on a much longer leash, which was probably a mistake. (But his English was so good!)
Another problem was that both sides had drastically different ideas about how to structure Korean society. The Soviets were willing to contemplate a non-Communist Korea, but they wanted the structures of Japanese colonial governance destroyed, and they wanted Korean elites -- landowners and businessmen -- broken. This was partly because of ideology, but more because these groups had cooperated with the Japanese. If they were allowed to survive and prosper, they might produce a government that was too friendly to Japan or the US. The Soviets seem to have been underestimating Korean nationalism, but anyhow that was the thinking.
The Americans, of course, wanted to get capitalism up and running, so the landowners and businessmen were their natural allies. They were also in no hurry to destroy Japanese administrative structures; disarming the Japanese soldiers, then gradually replacing Japanese colonial bureacrats with Koreans, seemed more than enough.
A third problem was that the Koreans disliked the idea of becoming a UN Trust Territory. That was fine for Africans and Micronesians and such, but Korea was a real country. The Provisional Government was weak and divided, but on this issue they were pretty clear.
So it's a stretch. But not quite ASB territory, I think. The interesting thing about Korea in the immediate postwar period is how little either the US or the Soviets really cared about it. Neither power considered the penninsula that important, and OTL it sort of drifted into partition _faute de mieux_. If either side had been willing to push hard, though, things might perhaps have been different.
So let's say Washington and Moscow are able to reach agreement. [handwave] Late in 1946, Korea becomes a UN Trust Territory under the
joint administration of three powers -- the US, USSR, and China. Both Americans and Soviets commit to a staged withdrawal of troops over the next year. Elections will be held and a government installed, under the oversight of the four administering powers.
Now what?
Strangely, I don't think this makes a Korean War impossible. Korea was suffering from tremendous internal tensions. IMO a Korean Civil War would be a real possibility, with the Cold War powers inevitably drawn in. Of course, it wouldn't necessarily follow a north-south divide...
Assuming no war, though, the Trust Territory would probably last until the late 1950s or early1960s, with rapidly rising internal discontent in its final years. John Foster Dulles would be determined to install staunch anti-Communists in the administration, which is going to complicate things quite a bit -- this unified Korea will still include Kim Il Sung and plenty of Communists, after all, and it will probably be formally committed to neutrality. Chiang Kai-Shek would back this too. Taiwan would keep China's seat on its three-part administration after 1949, which would make Taiwan particularly reluctant to let Korea go...
Thoughts?
Doug M.
Didn't work, obviously. But it wasn't completely daft, either. Both the US and the Soviets were taking this seriously in the first few months. The Soviets wanted a weakish, friendly or neutral Korea that couldn't be used as a launch pad by any other power (viz., the US or a revived Japan). The US wanted a Korea that wasn't Communist and that wouldn't be open to Soviet domination. There was room for negotiation.
Several things derailed this OTL. One was Syngman Rhee. Rhee wanted a Korea united under Rhee. Since Rhee was a mouth-breathing anti-Communist and also just generally a son-of-a-bitch, this caused problems.
-- I say Rhee instead of Kim Il Sung because at this point -- 1945, early '46 -- Kim was pretty completely reliant on the Soviets, and would have been compelled to follow their instructions. That would change, but a bit later. In the first year postwar, the Americans had Rhee on a much longer leash, which was probably a mistake. (But his English was so good!)
Another problem was that both sides had drastically different ideas about how to structure Korean society. The Soviets were willing to contemplate a non-Communist Korea, but they wanted the structures of Japanese colonial governance destroyed, and they wanted Korean elites -- landowners and businessmen -- broken. This was partly because of ideology, but more because these groups had cooperated with the Japanese. If they were allowed to survive and prosper, they might produce a government that was too friendly to Japan or the US. The Soviets seem to have been underestimating Korean nationalism, but anyhow that was the thinking.
The Americans, of course, wanted to get capitalism up and running, so the landowners and businessmen were their natural allies. They were also in no hurry to destroy Japanese administrative structures; disarming the Japanese soldiers, then gradually replacing Japanese colonial bureacrats with Koreans, seemed more than enough.
A third problem was that the Koreans disliked the idea of becoming a UN Trust Territory. That was fine for Africans and Micronesians and such, but Korea was a real country. The Provisional Government was weak and divided, but on this issue they were pretty clear.
So it's a stretch. But not quite ASB territory, I think. The interesting thing about Korea in the immediate postwar period is how little either the US or the Soviets really cared about it. Neither power considered the penninsula that important, and OTL it sort of drifted into partition _faute de mieux_. If either side had been willing to push hard, though, things might perhaps have been different.
So let's say Washington and Moscow are able to reach agreement. [handwave] Late in 1946, Korea becomes a UN Trust Territory under the
joint administration of three powers -- the US, USSR, and China. Both Americans and Soviets commit to a staged withdrawal of troops over the next year. Elections will be held and a government installed, under the oversight of the four administering powers.
Now what?
Strangely, I don't think this makes a Korean War impossible. Korea was suffering from tremendous internal tensions. IMO a Korean Civil War would be a real possibility, with the Cold War powers inevitably drawn in. Of course, it wouldn't necessarily follow a north-south divide...
Assuming no war, though, the Trust Territory would probably last until the late 1950s or early1960s, with rapidly rising internal discontent in its final years. John Foster Dulles would be determined to install staunch anti-Communists in the administration, which is going to complicate things quite a bit -- this unified Korea will still include Kim Il Sung and plenty of Communists, after all, and it will probably be formally committed to neutrality. Chiang Kai-Shek would back this too. Taiwan would keep China's seat on its three-part administration after 1949, which would make Taiwan particularly reluctant to let Korea go...
Thoughts?
Doug M.