The triumph of Halifax

Version 1 - An Unlikely Peace

Following the Norway debate in the House of Commons, Lord Halifax succeeded Chamberlain as PM. "Had Churchill not been dead", Halifax thought to himself, "he would have gotten the job instead". Unfortunately for him, the very same day he assumed his position in No. 10 was the day the Nazi panzers had broken through French defenses at Sedan. Despite his calls for a counter-attack, the situation on the ground proved too hard for the disorganized Allied forces to overcome. Once German tanks had reached the Channel and it became clear that the battle was lost and that the entire BEF plus the best of France's armies might be annihilated, Halifax began negotiations with Mussolini, in the hopes of saving western democracy before it was too late.

Halifax' instincts proved to be correct, as Mussolini had no desire to see Hitler become the Master of Europe and relished his new role as the providential peace broker. Britain's hand in the negotiations grew even stronger when a majority of the BEF was evacuated by sea. Coupled with substantial RN success against the Kriegsmarine in the waters off Norway, a great fight put up by the RAF over Dunkirk and the decimation of the German Fallschirmjaeger over Holland, it grew stronger still.

With the German inability to mount a successful cross-channel landing an accepted fact by all parties, the negotiations somehow managed to produce a result - to everyone's surprise, including that of the PM himself. Even though the eventual terms were the absolute maximum Britain was willing to give, why exactly Hitler accepted them instead of pushing on remains a mystery.

As part of the agreement "to achieve lasting peace and security in Europe", Germany's eastern conquests were recognized. Germany also formally annexed Luxembourg, and was granted Denmark as a protectorate. Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands were to be demilitarized, and have both an Anglo-French and a German representative on-site to "advise" their governments. The blockade of Germany was lifted, and Germany's old African colonies were 'returned' to her, along with Belgian Congo.

Britain ceded Cyprus to Greece, in return for Greece ceding Corfu to Italy. Also going to Italy were British and French Somaliland, the Aouzou Strip and a mandate over around half of Lebanon. Italy also received significant shares in the Suez Canal company and special trade rights in Tunisia.

Alsace-Lorraine was to become a demilitarized zone, and France was forced to agree to heavy long-term reparations and an almost complete dismantling of its metropolitan army (coastal fortifications aimed at Britain excluded).

Seemingly satisfied with his conquests at first, Hitler nevertheless faced the imminent threat of being unable to meet Germany's external payments - despite looting a number of treasuries of their gold reserves, Germany was severely lacking in hard currency, making overseas trade of meaningful magnitude difficult. Even the extremely advantageous trade agreement with the Soviet Union was proving impossible to sustain, a factor which probably influenced Hitler's decision to initiate preparations for Op. Barbarossa in early spring 1941. "We only have to kick the door", Hitler boasted, "and the whole rotten edifice will come crumbling down". Thus, he pinned his hopes on achieving complete victory within a couple of months, long before any meaningful reaction would come from the British and French. The only other alternative was to strike France once more and loot it, although that would inevitably delay any invasion of Russia until the following year, a risk not even Adolf Hitler was willing to take.

Ever since the deal struck between the Fascist and Imperialist powers, Stalin had been living under a constant feat of being attacked by Germany, perhaps in cooperation with the decadent capitalists. Even though he kept up his end of the trade deal, in the vain hope of delaying Hitler for perhaps one more year, he was under no illusions as to what the future had in store for him.

When the Germans finally did attack in late July (preparations had not been ready before), they found a Red Army at a high state of alert, although one with substantial organizational flaws. Nevertheless, German forces achieved stunning early victories, dealing heavy blows to Soviet forward armies - great encirclements for the most part eluded them however. Within two months, they had conquered Belarus, the Baltic States and the western half of Ukraine. With losses beginning to mount, Hitler shifted his focus and ordered Army Group Center to swing south and encircle the mass of Soviet formations around Kiev. As first rain and mud and then snow and ice halted the German advance, Stalin continued to send reinforcements, building up for a counterattack, which came the day the exhausted German spearheads finally linked up east of Kiev.

Caught by surprise, the thin German flanks fell apart, and the 1st and 2nd German Panzergroups found themselves encircled. Air supply failed, and a belated breakout attempt only managed to extricated less than a quarter of the original force.

Meanwhile, on the western front, Germany's invasion of the USSR brought declarations of war from London and Paris and a renewal of the naval blockade. The Allies however were caught by surprise when the covering force left behind to guard the western border advanced, occupying the demilitarized Low Countries and much of eastern France, aiming to buy as much time for their comrades in the east as possible.

At first, Halifax was reluctant to deploy another BEF to the continent whilst the French basically had no army, and instead chose to follow the centuries old British strategy of fighting a peripheral war - Norway was occupied, as were all of Germany's new (old) colonies. It was only in autumn when the first British forces started disembarking in France, and even then, the ports in Bretagne were chosen.

Despite early Allied timidity, by winter 1941, they began fielding a respectable force against the defending German forces - by February, they had recovered all of France sans Alsace-Lorraine, which was also liberated a month later. April saw Belgium liberated, and by late May most of the Netherlands south of the Rhine had been recovered, in what was derided as the most timid advance in all of history.

On the eastern front, following his setback during the winter, Hitler decided to gamble everything on an all-out knockout blow, and had his forces converge on Moscow as soon as the ground dried up from the spring thaw. Soviet forces were caught partially flatfooted by this, as STAVKA expected another effort aimed at Kiev. The Germans did eventually reach Moscow suburbs after a maximum two-month long effort - unfortunately for them, it meant a huge open flank developed to their south, one which Stalin was only too happy to exploit. Had German forces withdrawn at this point, they would have managed to do so easily. Hitler however was unwilling to let his prize escape him, and delayed ordering a withdraw in the hope of somehow turning the situation around.

By July 1st, the German Army Group Center had been encircled in the massive Soviet counterattack. By August, its last units had surrendered. A week later, Hitler was lying dead on the floor with several bullets stuck in his head, after an attempt by troops loyal to plotters within the Wehrmacht high command to arrest him devolved into a shoot-out with his personal guard. A short civil war emerged in Germany, but one which was quickly stopped by the advancing Anglo-French forces. The war in Europe had ended.



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This is, IMO, one of the possible outcomes in the event that Hitler somehow agrees to the terms Halifax would be willing to offer during the Battle of France. Up next, What happens if Hitler says Nein!
 

NoMommsen

Donor
why exactly Hitler accepted them instead of pushing on remains a mystery.
nothing to add, that would have been REALLY a mystery.

Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands were to be demilitarized
Kriegsmarine planed to militarize these contries for use as naval bases already in octobre/novembre 1939. Such a give-away would have met substantial opposition by the Kriegsmarine. Beside : Belgium was rendered by Hitler as a state without any reason of existence (otther than to be a thorn in germanys side).

and Germany's old African colonies were 'returned' to her, along with Belgian Congo.
something Hitler never every was interested in, quite the opposite he rendered the craving for colonies as not only one of the Kaiser's main flaws.

Alsace-Lorraine was to become a demilitarized zone
only ? Accepting this would be a betrayel of his and the conservative germanys main goal : to cancel the Versailles treaty. Anything short of Elsaß-Lothingen (Alsace-Lorrain) becomming german again was out of question.

However, it is your timeline.


Just some objections to consider :
Even the extremely advantageous trade agreement with the Soviet Union was proving impossible to sustain
it proved satisfactory enough in OTL
a factor which probably influenced Hitler's decision to initiate preparations for Op. Barbarossa in early spring 1941
only reason that influenced Hitlers decision for that was his racism and thirst for "Lebensraum"(living space)
When the Germans finally did attack in late July (preparations had not been ready before)
They were ready for it for beginning of may and delayed only by the Blitz over the Balkan due to Mussolinis illfated tries to be as powerfull as the germans (what seemingly doesn't happen here).
With such a treaty he would have attack maybe already in April.
they found a Red Army at a high state of alert
as they did in OTL ... with historical results;)

Nevertheless I am eagerly waiting for your
Up next, What happens if Hitler says Nein!
 
nothing to add, that would have been REALLY a mystery.

If you would ask me, he wouldn't. But the whole point was to explore the whole "Halifax makes peace, Nazis win" trope a bit. Having any one of your other locations (bases in Norway, occupation of Belgium or A-L) fall to Germany would be completely unacceptable to Britain or France, meaning there would be no armistice, meaning there would be no TL. One of the reasons I consider a Halifax-initiated Mussolini-brokered armistice to be unlikely.


it proved satisfactory enough in OTL
Actually it didn't. Germany, despite having also looted France OTL, was having severe problems keeping up with their payments. Even more so ITTL, when they're also trying to import stuff from the Americas and haven't looted France.


only reason that influenced Hitlers decision for that was his racism and thirst for "Lebensraum"(living space)
OTL, Hitler decided the USSR had to be invaded in '41 due to the mistaken belief that the British were holding out in the hopes of a Russian entry.



They were ready for it for beginning of may and delayed only by the Blitz over the Balkan due to Mussolinis illfated tries to be as powerfull as the germans (what seemingly doesn't happen here).
Actually, they were not, but that is beside the point. ITTL, Hitler decides later than OTL to invade east, hence the delayed start date.


as they did in OTL ... with historical results
The Red Army was anything but ready. All of their deployment and orders was designed to not provoke a war with Germany. Hell, well into the invasion Stalin still thought it was all a ploy by German generals to provoke a war. Surprise was total and confusion ran rampart. A Red Army that deploys in accordance with the intelligence it receives is likely to fare much better, especially vs a Heer that doesn't get the benefit of adding all of France's vehicles to its own.

Also, thank you for your interest.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Actually it didn't. Germany, despite having also looted France OTL, was having severe problems keeping up with their payments. Even more so ITTL, when they're also trying to import stuff from the Americas and haven't looted France.
Sure they had. Nevertheless they rendered it enough to stages the battles on the Balkan, North Africa and to (almost) reach Moscow.

OTL, Hitler decided the USSR had to be invaded in '41 due to the mistaken belief that the British were holding out in the hopes of a Russian entry.
That's what he told his generals to convince them. He made this decision already when he wrote "Mein Kampf". Poland, Skandinavia and the west were just stepstones on the way of his main goal : RUSSIA.

Actually, they were not,...
Plans and troop allocations were made, troops already their way, when Hitler went nuts about Mussolini invading Greece, causing all his beloved plans for russia to be cancelled until the Balkan was secured.

but that is beside the point. ITTL, Hitler decides later than OTL to invade east, hence the delayed start date.
That's the freedom of your choice of PODs.
And that's the reason why this forum is so interesting.:)
 
I'm rather dubious about Hitler's willingness to give up France.

Plans and troop allocations were made, troops already their way, when Hitler went nuts about Mussolini invading Greece, causing all his beloved plans for russia to be cancelled until the Balkan was secured.

Which caused practically no delay. The continental Balkans had been well and wrapped up before the end of April. It was longer-then-expected spring rains extending the Raputitsa which forced Hitler to postpone the invasion, not the Balkans campaign.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Which caused practically no delay. The continental Balkans had been well and wrapped up before the end of April. It was longer-then-expected spring rains extending the Raputitsa which forced Hitler to postpone the invasion, not the Balkans campaign.
Could you show me the way to your source about that ?
 
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