The Toyotomi Shogunate

First, forgive me of the title, I've never been good at coming up with them.​

Japan was finally unified in 1590, after years of continuous warfare. Soon afterwards, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, the supreme warlord of Japan, led the newly unified Japan in two invasions of Korea. The invasions failed in OTL. No sooner had the invasions fail that Hideyoshi died, and then appoint his 5 year old son Hideyori as his succesor. Soon afterwards, Hideyori had been overthrown and Tokugawa Ieyasu took control of Japan, thus establishing the Tokugawa shoguate which isolated Japan from the rest of the world until the 1850's.​

Yet how would East Asian history, or indeed world history have changed if Japan's invasion of Korea had succeeded? Could they realistically have gone to conquer China and establish a new dynasty, and then colonies throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans? I know this might seem like a Japan-wank, which it may very well be, but considering what the Manchu's were able to take over China, why not the Japanese?​

So I'll write a timeline on this idea, and hopefully it won't just fade away after a few posts like my other timelines. Since this particular idea hasn't been explored all that much it may well last longer than normal. There will probably be numerous errors and other things that go on in the timeline that might be contrary to the societies I am depicting, as I don't presume to be an expert on Feudal Japan or East Asian history. I'll probably have to go back and do some editting to correct the errors. Just bear with me and give me comments, rather than just screaming ASB!!​

Here it goes:​

The end of the warring states period:

Tensho 18, 7th month (1590): The warring states period of Japan was coming to a close. Toyotomi Hideyoshi, the supreme warlord of Japan, has conquered nearly all of Japan, and only the Hojo clan remains. The Hojo control a sizable territory in the Kanto plain, where modern day Tokyo is located.​

The only man that can claim to be a legitimate rival to Hideyoshi's power is Tokugawa Ieyasu. Hideyoshi and Ieyasu had both been proteges of Oda Nobunaga, and his top generals. When Nobunaga had been assasinated by Akechi Mitsuhide in 1582, both Hideyoshi and Ieyasu had raced to take revenge on Mitsuhide, with Hideyoshi winning the race, and thus acquiring Nobunaga's assets. The two nearly went to war when in 1584 Ieyasu had decided to support the eldest son of Oda Nobunaga against Hideyoshi's own candidate, who was another son of Nobunaga. A larger conflict had been averted through a hasty negotiation. Ieyasu had also been an occasional ally toward the Hojo in the past.​

So it was understandable that Hideyoshi not only was weary of Ieyasu's loyalty, but could also pose a threat to his power later on. Nonetheless, Ieyasu joined Hideyoshi's force in the assault on the castle at Odawara.​

During the siege, Hideyoshi, which on the surface appeared to secure Ieyasu's loyalty, offered the eight Kanto provinces of the Hojo for his five traditional holdings. Considering that Ieyasu had been Hideyoshi's primary rival for years, it seems unlikely that Hideyoshi desired a situation where Ieyasu could set up a power base that could potentially give him a degree of autonomy from Hideyoshi's control as what had occured in OTL and allowed him to take control of Japan after Hideyoshi's death.​

Hideyoshi was surprised later on to discover that Ieyasu accepted the risky proposal of moving his soldiers and vassals from one province to another. Though the Kanto region was by far more prosperous than Ieyasu's previous estate, the loyalties of the ex-samaurai of the Hojo were far from certain. And as had so often proved during the warring period, disloyalty could prove fatal, as it had for Oda Nobunaga.​

When the Hojo clan had been defeated, its leaders, as was customary, were forced to commit seppuku. Hojo Ujinao, though the hier of the Hojo clan, had been married to Ieyasu's 2nd daughter Toku Hime, and was thus spared from seppuku. Yet instead, he had been ordered into exile to Mount Koya.​

The assasination of Ieyasu

(POD)However, Ujinao, instead of complying, gathered a number of ex-Hojo samurai and devised a plot to assasinate Ieyasu, feeling that he had sold out the Hojo to Hideyoshi. Once Ieyasu was dead, Hojo Ujinao would sieze back control of the Kanto, and also gain the alliegence of those formerly belonging to Ieyasu, as after all he was the son in law of Ieyasu, believing that this would give him enough power to resist Hideyoshi.​

Thus, in December of 1590, Ujinao along with his co-conspirators attacked Ieyasu during the night, dispatching the guards before moving in. A huge fight took place within Ieyasu's estate, but the conspirators slowly move their way toward Ieyasu's quarters, in due part that many of the servants and guards had been ex-Hojo. Rather than escape, Ieyasu decided to fight to the death, killing several of Ujinao's conspirators before being overwhelmed. In a final act of defiance, Ieyasu, with his dying breath, committed seppuku, thus preserving his honor.​

With Ieyasu dead, Ujinao declared himself the diamyo of the Kanto region, changing his name to reflect his new status (I'm not sure just how the name changing system in feudal Japan works). Ujinao also made the claim that it was Hideyoshi had betrayed Ieyasu, and had employed several ninjas and warrior monks to assasinate his father. As Hideyoshi was seen as having a unquenching thirst for power, a good number of Ieyasu's samurai joined Ujinao in his rebellion.​

However, the majority of Ieyasu's samurai suspected Ujinao from the start, and formed a coalition against him. Immediately, a civil war broke out within Kanto, as the Ujinao's faction, comprising of the ex-Hojo samurai, facing off against the Tokugawa samurai.​

A representative of the Tokugawa immediately sent word to Hideyoshi of the coup, and begging him to send forces to crush Ujinao's rebellion. Hideyoshi's response was that Tokugawa's forces had to give a direct oath of loyalty to him first before he joined the fray, which the emissary agreed to. Therefore, Hideyoshi sent an army to crush Ujinao, which they were by the beginning of February of 1591. Trapped in his quarters, Ujinao and his subordinates committed seppuku, thus ending the short lived rebellion.​

With the rebellion crushed, Hideyoshi named Ieyasu's favorite son, the 11-year-old Tokugawa Hidetada as diamyo, while forming a Council of Elders, (who were basically obedient pawns of Hideyoshi) to act as his regents. Hideyoshi also ordered for those samaurai who had been alleged to have conspired to assasinate Ieyasu to commit seppuku.​

Three of Ieyasu's key subordinates, Honda Tadakatsu, Sakai Tadatsugu and lastly Hattori Hanzo, famed for his unique fighting style and the leader of the pro-Tokugawa forces against the Ujinao rebellion, were also ordered to commit seppuku, on the grounds that they had failed to protect their overlord in the first place.​

The death of Ieyasu had once again made Hideyoshi aware that there might be disloyal elements within the various diamyo. In late February of 1591, Hideyoshi ordered several prominent samurai, whose loyalties were considered suspect, to commit seppuku to show that they in fact were loyal. When one samurai refused to obey the edict, he was hung ignominously on a tree, while the rest of his family was executed along with the dishonor of the family name.​

Once all the named people were dead, Hideyoshi demanded that all the diamyo give an oath of loyalty to him (and also to the emperor), thus acknowledging that the man who had been born a peasant, was now the shogun in all but name.​

Yet because Hideyoshi had been born a peasant, and thus had not been a member of the Minamato lineage, he was ineligible for receiving the actual title of shogun. He did possesses the title of regent, which in many ways was more prestigous than that of the shogun. Yet it was this last title that would, in Hideyoshi's mind, would finally cement his legacy as the greatest man of Japan had ever known.​

Thus to achieve such a legacy, military conquest of an epic scale was required, starting with Korea... Once Korea was conquered, then it would be the Ming Dynasty, followed by India, and eventually the rest of the world...​
 

maverick

Banned
I love a Japanese story as much as the next guy...well, more, since I really like Japan and have done two TLs about Japan...

In any case, dont' turn this into a Nippon-wank...I really don't see how could Japan conquer China...

*crosses fingers*
 
The Manchu's were able to do it with a population base of about a million men, as compared to the Ming Dynasty which numbered about 150 million or so, and the Manchu's were in essence a nomadic people. Therefore, in my mind, the Japanese, who arguably possess the most professional army of East Asia at the time, at least have as much of a chance to establish a new dynasty as the Manchu's, and no less different culturally as well. China has to go into one of its moments where political instability, economic recession, peasant rebellion, plagues and famine happen all at once, along with clever diplomacy by the Japanese, which was how the Manchus had been able to establish the Ming Dynasty.
 

Typo

Banned
Been nomadic actually does provide an advantage.

And of course, I don't see any butterflies affecting China, the only reason that the Manchus did what they did was because rebels have already defeated the Ming, and they were able to sweep into the chaos. Without that rebellion, the Manchus didn't even have a ghost of a chance, and neither did the Japanese.
 
Conquering China is far too much at this point. The Taiko could conquer Korea and lands North of the Yalu. Additionally Sakhalin and maybe, maybe Formosa.

However China, that is one big pill to swallow even the Imoerialists regarded that as tooo much trouble. A naval Japan operating out of colonies and drawing wealth from Korea, that is doable I think.

Look forward to seeing where you go with this.
 

maverick

Banned
Also, Toyotomi started as a lowly commoner soldier in the army of Oda Nobunaga and rose through the ranks...

Henceforth, he can't be a shogun...since he is not descendant of the Minamoto as Tokugawa and others were...like Takeda Shingen...

That's why he did not claim the title of Shogun but of Kampaku and Daijon Daijin IOTL...

I don't want to sound like an annoying asshole or anything, but I'm trying to help with constructive criticism before the AH.Com anti-Japanese lobby notices this TL...
 
Conquering China is far too much at this point. The Taiko could conquer Korea and lands North of the Yalu. Additionally Sakhalin and maybe, maybe Formosa.

However China, that is one big pill to swallow even the Imoerialists regarded that as tooo much trouble. A naval Japan operating out of colonies and drawing wealth from Korea, that is doable I think.

Just before the Manchu invasion, China's population had dropped to less than 10 million. IIRC that was the middle of the 17th century. At the time, Japan had twice as many people as China, for a short period. Perhaps if there was no Imjin War, when China entered this demographic free-fall it could be more easily conquered by a powerful Japan?
 
Less than 10 million? Are you kidding? Dude, check your facts. China had about 200 million people at the time of the Manchu invasion.

As for the timeline, I admit that I am notoriously slow at updating, and I'm still trying to finish the post about the Japanese invasion of Korea.
 
Suppose Hideyoshi lives to 1616. Which was the OTL deathdate of Ieyasu. They had been the same generation.

The Manchu swept across China in just a couple of years after 1644. So, if Hideyoshi does the 1592 invasion right, he might be settled as ruler of the whole China by 1598.

Now, Hideyoshi did threaten invasion of Philippines. Suppose that he does this, and conquers Philippines and strategic points of Malay Archipelago by 1610. The major settled states like Vietnam, Cambodia, Siam and Java are left as vassal states.

Why? Because it is strategically important. One reason Zheng He missions had stopped in 1433 had been shortage of big naval timbers in densely settled China. Japan used much of their old-growth timber during 17th century, too. The situation in China Proper would not have improved by 1598. Mings were a landbased empire with capital in Beijing and major military concerns on northern frontier, so they could afford to neglect their navy. Whereas Toyotomi absolutely depends on his navy to keep Japan and China together. He needs a bigger and more reliable timber supply than Japan or South China.

And Sumatra and Kalimantan are big islands with poor soils, few paddy-farming people, most lands covered with old-growth rain forest and large navigable lowland rivers to access them. New Guinea, too.

So, between 1598 and 1610, Toyotomi navy establishes the Southeast Asian empire. Seizing what outposts Spain+Portugal (then united) have there.

The Dutch had just arrived in East Indies (in 1598 IIRC) and had not established any outposts there (Batavia was founded in 1619 or so), thus Toyotomi is not attacking them and can welcome the Dutch traders to the newly founded Japanese ports on friendly terms. And he sends his Zheng He explorers out beyond his empire, too. In OTL, a Japanese ship did cross Pacific to Mecico, on friendly terms - and English Francis Drake had raided Pacific coast and come back. In TTL, a few Japanese expeditions are sent in 1600-s to scout the sailing conditions and test the strength of Spanish defences, and they return, but do not undertake a major attack as yet. Also, Japanese expeditions travel to Indian Ocean to establish friendly diplomatic and trade relationships with Great Moguls and up Persian Gulf to contact Safavids and/or Ottomans and up Red Sea to contact Ottomans. And a Japanese expedition sails around Cape of Good Hope and past the hostile Spain and Portugal to make a diplomatic visit to Spain´s enemies or recent enemies - Henry IV-s France, James I-s England, the Republic of United Provinces.

Since Japan has reached logistic limits for immediate expansion, the activity slows down. In 1616, the 23-year-old Hideyori inherits the Regency... and is resolved to have a peaceful rule, with Japan enjoying the fruits of unification and victory - but simultaneously proving the Chinese that he is a better Confucian ruler than the Mings had been, and that the Japanese are not merely barbarian oppressors. In short, what Kangxi did in OTL 50 years later. His enjoyment of his huge budget does include continuing the erection of gigantic castles and palaces Hideyoshi had begun at Osaka, Nagasaki and Nanjing - yet not more expensive than his numerous subjects could afford, and perhaps at more leisurely pace. And large numbers of machiya settle at all those places - the boom in economy, private spending and cultural sophistication takes place like it did in OTL 17th century Japan and to some degree early Qing China, but even larger scale.

How do you think would Hideyori´s trade and diplomatic relationships with Holland influence Japan and China?
 
Less than 10 million? Are you kidding? Dude, check your facts. China had about 200 million people at the time of the Manchu invasion.

As for the timeline, I admit that I am notoriously slow at updating, and I'm still trying to finish the post about the Japanese invasion of Korea.
I found the source I used:
chinapop5bo.gif


But it's a blog, so I guess it should be taken with a shaker of salt.

There's also this site, which shows a marked decline (if not nearly as drastic).

And this chart (big file) shows the population of China at less than 100 million.

I apologize for making wild unverified claims. :eek: Also, I do admit to not having studied this in any detail, which I should have done before posting.
 
I found the source I used:


But it's a blog, so I guess it should be taken with a shaker of salt.

There's also this site, which shows a marked decline (if not nearly as drastic).

And this chart (big file) shows the population of China at less than 100 million.

I apologize for making wild unverified claims. :eek: Also, I do admit to not having studied this in any detail, which I should have done before posting.

It was in 1712 that Qing abolished head tax. So it is only from 18th century that censuses are idle curiosity of the government and people do not have an incentive to cheat and undercount the population.

The official population doubled in 44 years, 1720 to 1764. The next doubling took 70 years, to 400 millions in 1834. Maybe the population growth was slowing as the Malthusian limit was approached. Or else maybe the 100 millions in 1720 was undercounted, and people were gradually coming out of hiding after 1712.

In Japan, Hideyoshi had run kokudaka surveys. A koku was a volume measure of grain (annual production), but the amount of production in koku seems to have been pretty close to total number of souls. Japan had 18 millions of koku in 1600. That rose to about 30 millions by 1700, then stayed on that level till Meji revolution.

How many koku would Hideyoshi find in China of 1598?
 
Top