The Towers Still Stand: An Alternate take on early 21st Century America.

Who Do You Think will win the 2004 Presidential Election at This Point in the TL?

  • President George W. Bush (R-TX)

    Votes: 60 28.7%
  • Former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)

    Votes: 96 45.9%
  • Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt (D-MO)

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN)

    Votes: 13 6.2%
  • Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

    Votes: 5 2.4%
  • Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)

    Votes: 11 5.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 6 2.9%

  • Total voters
    209
  • Poll closed .
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Looks like Bush is going to pursue Social Security reform. Judging from OTL hugging the third rail will go badly for him.
 
Wouldn't he blame Clinton and the dot-com crash for the end of the economic expansion?
Sure but not in his State of the Union. The GOP in OTL did in fact call the early 2000s recession the "Clinton Recession," so I don't see why they wouldn't now.
 
Sure but not in his State of the Union. The GOP in OTL did in fact call the early 2000s recession the "Clinton Recession," so I don't see why they wouldn't now.

I think he'd go with something subtle like "two years ago the economy slowed down".
 
All of this. I don't think it really changes anything in domestic politics; the 2000 campaign plays out pretty much as it did, though random changes flowing from this could tilt the very close election to Gore. You still get the Clinton impeachment, more or less the same 1998 midterms, the burst of the dot com bubble, Enron and, more than likely, George W Bush. It's hard to overstate how little terrorism was on the public's mind in the late 1990s.

But assuming it still is GW Bush in 2000 you can't guarantee he still wins, and of course if there is no 9-11 then he's far more vulnerable in 2004, which might entice a a better quality candidate to step forward on the Democratic side.
 
But assuming it still is GW Bush in 2000 you can't guarantee he still wins, and of course if there is no 9-11 then he's far more vulnerable in 2004, which might entice a a better quality candidate to step forward on the Democratic side.

Well, anything could change the election, but it's possible it could not change anything meaningful.
 
April 3rd, 2002. President Bush and Vice President Kasich Announce plan for Social Security Reform:

On Aril 3rd, 2002, President George W. Bush and Vice President John Kasich announced their plan to reform Social Security in a joint Press Conference at the White House. The plan would not change Social Security for those who are currently on Social Security and those currently over the age of 55 would not see any changes in the program. However, the plan would allow workers under the age of 55 to put up to four percent of taxable wages, up to $1000, into a private account for investment. In other words, this plan would partially privatize Social Security. The President praised Vice President Kasich for his work in crafting the plan and made clear that he felt that the passage of this plan was important, and that the United States Congress owed it to the American people to not allow Social Security to "go broke." The Vice President said that he hope for "both sides of the isle to come together and pass this plan." Kasich went on to say that "We came together to reform Welfare in the 1990s, we must now come together to reform Social Security. It can be done, and it must be done if we want this program to remain solvent."
 

jahenders

Banned
December 19th, 1998. Bill Clinton is impeached by the House of Representatives:

On December 19th, 1998, President Bill Clinton became the second President in American history to be impeached. Despite losing seats in the House of Representatives due to the notion of impeachment and despite Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich announcing his resignation from congress over the loses, the Republican controlled house voted to impeach the President for perjury to a grand jury by a vote of 228-206, and for obstruction of justice by a vote of 221-212. Two other articles were brought to a vote, but failed.

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While Impeachment was taking place however, it was revealed that Speaker Designate Bob Livingston, whom Republicans chose to replace Gingrich as Speaker, was involved in an extra marital affair of his own. He ended his candidacy for Speaker of the House and announced his resignation from congress all together as well. In his Press Conference Livingston urged Clinton to resign as well, but Clinton did not. Many other House Republicans had infidelities exposed as well, including Henry Hyde of Illinois, who was the house manager of Clinton's trial in the Senate.

Despite Impeachment, President Clinton's job approval ratings were unharmed. In fact, they were at 73% the day the impeachment took place. The President's personal approval rating however, did take a hit. Congressional Republicans took a hit in the polls over impeachment, and many Americans, mainly Clinton supporters, were quick to point out the hypocrisy that many Republicans displayed.

February 12th, 1999: The Senate Acquits President Clinton:

On February 12th, 1999, The Senate voted on the articles of impeachment. A two thirds vote (67 Senators) would have been needed to convict and remove the President, and on the charge of perjury, 55 senators voted against conviction and 45 voted for. On the charge of obstruction of justice, half of the senate voted to convict and 50 senators voted against conviction. Ten Republican Senators voted against convicting Clinton on the perjury and five of those ten Senators voted against convicting the President on obstruction of justice. Chief Justice William Rehnquist presided over the proceedings in the Senate.

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With the acquittal, President Clinton will get to do what he vowed to do and finish his term.

A few things:
1) I don't think the suggestion of multiple Republican infidelities being exposed all at once is that plausible.
-- Even if they are, they aren't the same as Clinton who was unfaithful, lied about it to the public multiple times, obstructed justice, and lied about it under oath
-- So, if the vote is to impeach, I don't see Clinton remaining unscathed and Republicans taking a hit
2) If it goes to the Senate, I think virtually all Republicans will vote to convict of at least the perjury. It probably won't reach 2/3, but it'll be close

Clinton may be able to finish his term, but he'll be further injured and historically tainted.
 
A few things:
1) I don't think the suggestion of multiple Republican infidelities being exposed all at once is that plausible.
-- Even if they are, they aren't the same as Clinton who was unfaithful, lied about it to the public multiple times, obstructed justice, and lied about it under oath
-- So, if the vote is to impeach, I don't see Clinton remaining unscathed and Republicans taking a hit
2) If it goes to the Senate, I think virtually all Republicans will vote to convict of at least the perjury. It probably won't reach 2/3, but it'll be close

Clinton may be able to finish his term, but he'll be further injured and historically tainted.
That was how it went OTL.
 
Well, what do you think? How damaging will Social Security reform be for Bush, if at all? Will there be a push to hit Iraq?
 
A few things:
1) I don't think the suggestion of multiple Republican infidelities being exposed all at once is that plausible.
-- Even if they are, they aren't the same as Clinton who was unfaithful, lied about it to the public multiple times, obstructed justice, and lied about it under oath
-- So, if the vote is to impeach, I don't see Clinton remaining unscathed and Republicans taking a hit
2) If it goes to the Senate, I think virtually all Republicans will vote to convict of at least the perjury. It probably won't reach 2/3, but it'll be close

Clinton may be able to finish his term, but he'll be further injured and historically tainted.

dw93 pointed out this happened IOTL.

1) Republicans looked like hypocrites and Clinton was very popular with peace and prosperity, so voters saw no point in impeachment. Clinton made mistakes but the public didn't support impeachment, and IOTL the Democrats gained seats in the 1998 midterms.
2)No, some moderate Republicans knew the public didn't want impeachment, especially after the GOP nearly lost the House in the midterms and the party had obviously lost. They were never going to get close to 2/3.

In conclusion, the public didn't like what happened in the White House but they thought he was doing a good job and didn't support impeachment.
 
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