The Towers Still Stand: An Alternate take on early 21st Century America.

Who Do You Think will win the 2004 Presidential Election at This Point in the TL?

  • President George W. Bush (R-TX)

    Votes: 60 28.7%
  • Former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)

    Votes: 96 45.9%
  • Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt (D-MO)

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN)

    Votes: 13 6.2%
  • Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

    Votes: 5 2.4%
  • Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)

    Votes: 11 5.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 6 2.9%

  • Total voters
    209
  • Poll closed .
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Solid update.

I'd say Bush has it but something could always happen in the next few months in the timeline. Even with 9/11 and the War on Terror there will inevitably be another boot that drops, the question is what that boot is.
 
Solid update.

I'd say Bush has it but something could always happen in the next few months in the timeline. Even with 9/11 and the War on Terror there will inevitably be another boot that drops, the question is what that boot is.
Has Enron been mentioned ITTL? There could be a scandal regarding President Bush's ties to them by the time November 2 rolls around.
 
Right now I'd say Bush wins, with a larger margin then Gore but perhaps a narrow path then Kerry. He can point to some success i.e. immigration reform and while the Enron stuff will hurt him it isn't a killer especially with the incumbancy edge.
 
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Well, the Democrats definitely seem to have a better roster than in 2004.

Loving it; keep up the good work!
 
July 26th-29th, 2004. The 2004 Democratic National Convention:

The 2004 Democratic National Convention took place in Miami, Florida from July 26th through July 29th, 2004. The First Night of the Convention Focused on "Competent Governing." Speeches were given making the case for Gephardt's candidacy, and discussing his record in Congress as well as his years in the leadership there. Notable Speakers included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was one of Gephardt's earliest supporters in the primaries, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Senator and Former Presidential Candidate Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, and Jane Gephardt, wife of Dick Gephardt. Various Democratic Members of the House and Senate Spoke on the first night as well.

The theme of the Second Night of the Convention was "A Safer, Cleaner Environment." Speeches given that night focused on the need to fight against Global Warming by lowering America's carbon Foot Print and becoming energy independent by investing in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Notable Speakers included Former Vice President and 2000 Democratic Nominee Al Gore, Illinois State Senator and US Senate Candidate Barack Obama, and Former Vermont Governor and Presidential Candidate Howard Dean.

The third night's theme was "A Respected America." Speakers made the case that America was losing Respect and influence around the world and that in order for America to be respected and influential again, it needed to reach out to and work with its allies to solve the issues that confronted us in the 21st Century. Key Speakers included Former President Jimmy Carter, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator Max Cleland of Georgia, Wesley Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and Washington Governor and Vice Presidential Candidate, Gary Locke.

The Final Night of the Convention centered around "An Prosperous America for all Americans." The Democrats made the case that many Americans were left behind over the course of the Bush Presidency due to a weak economic recovery and that Bush was out of touch with these struggling Americans because he was backed by Enron and others, who were key to the economic recession of 2001. Health Care reform, investment in infrastructure, fair trade policies, and jobs training programs were also talked about as key parts of the party platform. Notable Speakers included Keynote Speaker Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, Former President Bill Clinton, and Former First Lady and New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic Nominee himself, Dick Gephardt also spoke on the final night of the Convention as well. On the economy and taxes, he said "In the year 2000, unemployment was at a 30 year low and our budget was balanced. Today, we're in the midst of a weak economic recovery and many Americans are struggling to get by, they are making less than they did four years ago, and the cost of living has increased. If elected this November, our Top priority will be to help those who are struggling. For years, members of both parties have said we need to prepare our workers for the 21st Century and have not acted. If we win this November, we will act. We will ensure that everyone is this country pays their fair share in taxes, especially the wealthiest among us, who, in 2001, were handed the largest tax cut in history by this President. In doing this, we will be back on track to balancing our budget again." On trade, Gephardt told the crowd that "We are a party that supports trade, but we feel it must be fair. America must not engage in trade deals that hurt American workers and exploit the labor of others abroad." On Immigration "Our Country was built on Immigration and we must welcome those who want to come to our great country with open arms. I was proud to support the Bi partisan Immigration reform bill that was passed last year. It was a step. However there is work that still needs to be done. While I support the worker program that allows law obeying immigrants to work here while they earn citizenship, because of how that law is written, there is nothing stopping a corporation from firing an American worker and instead hiring an immigrant worker so that they don't have to pay as much in the form of wages and benefits. We need to change that, and we will. We will not allow Corporations to put profits over people."

On Foreign Policy, Gephardt said "This President has alienated our allies from day one. First by pulling the US out of the Kyoto Protocol and then by pulling our country out of the ABM treaty. North Korea has admitted to pursuing a Nuclear Program and violating the Agreed Framework, and there has been no response from this Administration and less than two years ago, one our military bases in Saudi Arabia, American lives were lost, and this administration did nothing. Now more than ever, we need strong leadership. Leadership that will make America respected again and leadership that will work with our allies, to confront and solve the problems we face in the 21st Century."

Gephardt concluded by saying that "There are problems that need solving, but these are problems that can easily be solved by working with people of all backgrounds to solve them. Together, we can make this Century the Next American Century, thank you and God Bless the United States of America."

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August 3rd, 2004. Polling Post Democratic Convention:

Gallup Polling released showed that the Democratic Convention was well received, as Dick Gephardt, who was trailing the President by 3 points prior to the convention, was now ahead of President Bush by two points nationally. President Bush's approval rating, which was 54% prior to the convention, was now down to 51%. Polling in Ohio now had Gephardt ahead of Bush by 2 points, had him ahead in Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire by 3 points, Michigan by 4 points, and had him even with Bush in Missouri and Arkansas. Bush's lead in Florida, which was by 5 points in early July, was now down to 1 point.

Many believed, rightfully that this was merely an convention bounce and Senior Advisor to the President Karl Rove, who ran the President's successful 2000 campaign, said in an interview with Bill O'Reilly on FOX News that "We're not worried at all. In 1988, Michael Dukakis was leading President Bush's father by 17 points after the Democratic Convention that year. Did that translate into victory for Dukakis? No, the Bush/Quayle ticket won in a landslide. We have our convention in less than a month and the American people will see for themselves that President Bush has a long list of accomplishments to run on and has a better path for America moving forward than Dick Gephardt does, and I predict that the President will come out of his convention stronger than Gephardt did from the Democrat's convention."
 
A good overview of the convention here as the election steps into the battle between the parties properly now. Did anyone stand out in the speakers during the Democratic convention?
 
A good overview of the convention here as the election steps into the battle between the parties properly now. Did anyone stand out in the speakers during the Democratic convention?
With Feingold being keynote instead of Obama, no, at least not to the extent of OTL.
 
August 17th-21st, 2004. President Bush Campaigns in the Midwest:
President Bush began a campaign tour in four key Midwestern states, Wisconsin and Iowa, which he narrowly lost in 2000, Missouri, and Ohio. The President started in Ohio. At a campaign rally in Cleveland, Bush told a crowd of supporters that "My opponent says the economy is weak. The facts say otherwise. He says that we need more government intervention and more taxes. I say he's wrong. Over the last four years we reformed Medicare, reformed education, and reformed immigration, and we did this while cutting your taxes. If I am given another 4 years in office, we will give our businesses a tax cut, so that they can invest more in our economy and create good paying jobs, and we will continue to find ways to reform our government and do away with unnecessary regulation. This is how we will make America even more prosperous. Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless America." The President gave a similar speech at a rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin the next day. In Iowa and Missouri, the President talked about foreign policy. At a campaign stop outside of Des Moines, the President said to a crowd of supporters that "When I came into office, the sanctions on Iraq were faltering. For a decade, Saddam Hussein had been repeatedly violating the cease fire agreements and was not allowing Weapons Inspections to take place as he was supposed to, leading many, including my administration and my predecessor's administration to believe that he had WMD. Thanks to our efforts and those of the UN, we revamped the sanctions and increased pressure on Saddam's regime. This year, he finally allowed inspections to take place, and thankfully there were none. We will continue to keep the pressure up on Iraq and will make clear to our other enemies around the world that if they threaten the security of the world in any way, they to will suffer consequences."

Polling showed this helped the President as a Gallup Poll released on August 25th showed that the President was now even with Gephardt nationally and was now leading again in Ohio, Missouri, and Iowa by 1 point and was reduced Gephardt's lead in Wisconsin to a point as well. This was good news for the President, as the Republican Convention in New York City was five days away.

 
I find myself strangely unconcerned about which ticket wins in November. Gephart is a solid center-left civil servant and Bush here is doing okay on balance. Though, the likelihood of Katrina and an alt-GFC occurring over the next 4 years kinda makes a victory in November a poisoned chalice...
 
I find myself strangely unconcerned about which ticket wins in November. Gephart is a solid center-left civil servant and Bush here is doing okay on balance. Though, the likelihood of Katrina and an alt-GFC occurring over the next 4 years kinda makes a victory in November a poisoned chalice...
Yeah, sadly, weather tends to be pretty Butterfly-proof, global warming notwithstanding.
 
August 30th-September 2nd, 2004. The 2004 Republican National Convention:

The Republican National Convention took place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. The First Night focused on the theme of "Honor and Integrity Restored." Speeches were given making the case that President Bush kept his campaign promise in 2000 of restoring Integrity and Honor to the White House, citing that the President ran a clean, scandal free administration. Notable Speakers included House Minority Leader Dennis Hastert, who compared Bush to the late President Ronald Reagan (who still passed on June 6th, 2004 TTL), Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lynne Cheney, wife of late Former Defense Secretary and 2000 Vice Presidential candidate Dick Cheney, First Lady Laura Bush, and George P. Bush, nephew of the President and son of Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who also spoke that night.

The theme of the Second night of the convention was "Traditional Values for the 21st Century." That night, Republicans made the case that President Bush fought hard for traditional values throughout his Presidency, citing his ban on federal funding for Stem Cell Research and appointing conservative justices to the courts. Speeches were given arguing for, a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage between one man and one woman, and as they did in the past, argued for a human life amendment to the Constitution. Notable Speakers that night included Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, and Senator George Allen of Virginia.

Night three of the Convention centered around "A Strong, but Humble America." Speeches given that night made the case that the President delivered on his promise of a Humble Foreign Policy and praised him for not participating in nation building, while at the same time praised him for the recent developments in Iraq and said that it was his strong leadership that delivered those results. Bush was also praised for restoring morale to the military. Notable Speakers included Senator John McCain of Arizona, Senate Minority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

The Final Night's theme was "Responsible Compassion." Republicans talked about the President's accomplishments on Education reform, taxes, Prescription Drug Coverage to Medicare, and Immigration reform and argued that President Bush accomplished these achievements in a more responsible manor than the Democrats would have, making the case that they would raise taxes and create more bureaucracy. They also spoke of the President's plans for a second term, including a tax cut for businesses and regulatory reform. notable Speakers included California Governor and Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was the Keynote Speaker, Governor George Pataki of New York, Second Lady Karen Kasich, and Vice President John Kasich.

At the end of his Speech, Kasich introduced the President to the crowd. The President would be the last speaker of the night. Bush started off his speech by accepting re nomination for President and thanked all of his Cabinet Secretaries as well as the Vice President for "all their hard work over the last four years." He also thanked his family for their love and support. Bush then went on to talk about what he felt were his accomplishments. "When I took the oath of office in January of 2001, our economy was spiraling into recession and the office of the Presidency was rocked by 8 years of scandal. Today, thanks to the Tax Cut we signed into law, our economy is back on track and is only getting stronger. The office that was once stained by scandal now has its honor and its dignity restored. When we came into office, the sanctions on Iraq were crumbling and Saddam Hussein was becoming an increasing threat. Thanks to the efforts of this administration, the sanctions have been revamped and strengthened and Saddam Hussein is weakened. Weapons Inspectors, who weren't able to do their job for years, were now able to inspect Iraq and have thankfully reported that Iraq is disarmed. A Once Broken Immigration System is now repaired. No longer do law obeying Immigrants have to hide in the shadows and live in fear and those who are not in America but desire to one day become citizens of our great nation now don't have to wait as long to do so. At the same time, we strengthened security at our boarders so that we can keep our communities safe. Senior Citizens no longer have to choose between food and medicine and for the first time, we can now say No Child will be left behind. All the while we defended our values, we took the first step to protecting all life by signing the ban on public funding for stem cell research. This is a remarkable record of accomplishment."

Bush went on to say that "The American People now have a decision to make. Do we continue down this path of accomplishment with sensible reforms and less government intervention in our economy? Or do we embrace a platform that calls for bigger government and more taxes? Do we continue to defend our Traditional values into the 21st Century? Or do we sit back and let those values fall into the ash heap of history? Do we stay strong and humble in dealing with the issues that confront us in the world? Or do we allow our military to be weakened and stretch thin throughout the world? If am so fortunate to earn your trust and your vote this November, we will continue our record of reform. We will cut taxes and reduce regulation for businesses so that they can invest more and our economy and create even more jobs so that every American who wants a job can say they have one. We will defend our traditional values, by pushing for constitutional amendments that protect the life of the unborn and defend the sanctity of marriage and in order to do this, we will continue to appoint principled conservatives to our courts. We will remain strong and secure at home and will send our men and women in uniform in harms way only when our security and our interests are threatened. We can't however expect to achieve all of this by winning the Presidency alone. We also need a Republican Congress to help make this a reality. So this November, let's make Denny Hastert Speaker again and make Bill First Senate Majority Leader."

Bush ended his speech by saying "The Late Ronald Reagan use to speak of a 'Shining City on a Hill' throughout his entire political career. When President Reagan's Presidency ended a decade and a half ago, that city was shinning bright. Today, that City is still shining and President Reagan would want us to make it shine even brighter. Let's make that city brighter this November 2nd. Thank you, God Bless you, and may he continue to bless the United States of America."

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September 7th, 2004. New Polling Post GOP Convention:

Gallup released post convention polling that gave the President, who was tied with Gephardt nationally 5 days before the Republican Convention, a 5 point bounce in the polls. President Bush's approval rating now stood at 53%. New Polling from New Mexico, a Gore state in 2000, had President Bush leading 50-49%. The President was also now leading in the state of Wisconsin by 1 point, a state that Mr. Gephardt had been leading in for the entire campaign up until that point, and the President also expanded his lead in other crucial lead states. He was now leading in Ohio by 2.5 points, Missouri by 3 points, and Iowa by a point at a half. The candidates were tied in New Hampshire and the President led in Florida by 3 points. Many were speculating that the President was now on the path to reach or exceed 300 electoral votes. Polling released by CNN showed that the Republicans were on route to gain 3 seats in the Senate, which would reduce the Democratic Majority there to 52 seats. CNN's polling also showed Republicans leading the national vote in the House, but were still short of retaking the majority. The race was far from over though as there were still the debates, the first of which would be at the end of the month.
 
What did everyone think of the conventions and the positions the parties took? Everything look plausible thus far?
 
What did everyone think of the conventions and the positions the parties took? Everything look plausible thus far?

The conventions were great and the platforms are plausible. I can see the GOP pursuing socially conservative policies in a second term after accomplishing much of it's economic agenda. I also like how the environment is such a strong issue for the Democrats with Gore being the runner-up, sort of like how the platform adopted much of Bernie's proposals in 2016.

The polling is interesting but it's probably just another convention bounce that won't stick. With no "rally around the flag" effect after 9/11, Bush doesn't win by the margin he did OTL (and could very well lose).
 
Pretty good timeline but Democrats sound too liberal. Remember this is Dick Gephardt we're talking about here. Literally a corporate lobbyist.
 
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