The Towers Still Stand: An Alternate take on early 21st Century America.

Who Do You Think will win the 2004 Presidential Election at This Point in the TL?

  • President George W. Bush (R-TX)

    Votes: 60 28.7%
  • Former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)

    Votes: 96 45.9%
  • Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt (D-MO)

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN)

    Votes: 13 6.2%
  • Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

    Votes: 5 2.4%
  • Former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)

    Votes: 11 5.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 6 2.9%

  • Total voters
    209
  • Poll closed .
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And once again the Democrats show they're open to compromise.

With the GOP favored in the Senate (most likely), a strong reelection win can deliver Bush the house and set him up for a productive second term

I think whether or not Dubya wins, and the scale of his win, is determined by who he faces. Against Gore, Dubya is gonna lose, but against Wellstone, Dubya is guaranteed a strong win.
 
And once again the Democrats show they're open to compromise.



I think whether or not Dubya wins, and the scale of his win, is determined by who he faces. Against Gore, Dubya is gonna lose, but against Wellstone, Dubya is guaranteed a strong win.
I think W can defeat Gore, who is a weak candidate (without the DUI scandal the 2000 election wouldn't have been close). As a Conservative, it's actually Gephardt that worries me
 
I think W can defeat Gore, who is a weak candidate (without the DUI scandal the 2000 election wouldn't have been close).

I don't think Gore was a weak candidate, but that's an issue for another time. I feel Gore can point to how he won more votes in 2000, and he'll strike that chord to victory.

As a Conservative, it's actually Gephardt that worries me

He certainly can gain Rust Belt voters with his protectionism.

But at the same time, even today, the Democratic Party is divided over the issue of trade. In 2004, that division was even bigger. So, that's an issue for Gephardt. Gephardt is also, I feel, a bit of a spent force.
 
I think W can defeat Gore, who is a weak candidate (without the DUI scandal the 2000 election wouldn't have been close). As a Conservative, it's actually Gephardt that worries me
2000 still would've been close, Bush just would've narrowly won the electoral AND popular votes. Keep in mind the Democrats made gains in Congress in 2000 OTL, if Gore learns from his mistakes, he can run a very strong campaign for 2004 TTL. Karl Rove was also worried about Gephardt in 2004 OTL as well, so to everyone else, don't out rule Gephardt just yet.
 
August 13th, 2003. Medicare Part D is brought to Congress for another Vote
Medicare Part D was brought to the House Floor for a Vote for a Second Time, and many believed that the legislation would pass this time. After hours of debate, the legislation passed by a vote of 237-198, with 137 Democrats and 100 Republicans voting for the legislation. The next day, the legislation was brought to a vote in the Senate, where the debate wasn't very long. The legislation passed by a vote of 55-45, with 28 Republicans and 27 Democrats voting in favor of the legislation. President Bush signed the legislation and a bill signing ceremony at the White House that Friday. The President said after signing the legislation that "No longer will our elderly have to struggle to pay for much needed medications. I thank all of those who voted for this historic legislation. You made this day possible and made retirement a heck of a lot easier for those who are retired and those who will soon retire." Many pundits and supporters of the President saw this as a great legislative victory for the administration.
 
August 17th, 2003. An Unlikely Candidate enters the race for President:

In an August 17th interview on "Face the Nation," Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who led the Conservative opposition to Medicare Part D and was the Libertarian Presidential Nominee in 1988, announced that he was launching a Primary Challenge against President George W. Bush for the Republican nomination for President. When asked why he was running for President, the Congressman said in his interview that "I'm running because for close to three years we've had a President who has increased the deficit and has expanded the size of the Federal Government with No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D. We've had a President who has given millions of illegal immigrants an easy pathway to citizenship and we've had a President who tried desperately to go into an unnecessary War with Iraq, only to be stopped by the international community and Congress. These are things I would expect from a liberal Democrat, not from a Conservative Republican. I'm running so that Constitutional Conservatives across America actually have a true small Government Conservative to vote for."

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Polling released the day after Paul announced showed President Bush with a 52% approval rating. Those polls also showed the President leading against his Democratic opponents, with Bush leading both Senators Wellstone and Edwards by 54-43%, and leading Former Governor Dean by a 53-45% margin. The President had a lead of 51-47% against Speaker Gephardt and was leading Former Vice President Gore by a 50-47% margin. With the President now officially having a Primary opponent, many wondered how much of a hit the President would take if any, both in election polls and in his overall job approval rating. Would Ron Paul be another Pat Buchanan? Or could he be something more significant? Voters would find out soon enough...
 
He won't win, but the GOP of TTL doesn't have the threat of terrorism to unite the like they did OTL, so he might get SOME republican support.

But whose support is he going to attract? The alt-right wasn't as big in the GOP as it is now. I can see some movement conservatives holding their nose and protest voting for him, but not many because of his alt-right views.
 
But whose support is he going to attract? The alt-right wasn't as big in the GOP as it is now. I can see some movement conservatives holding their nose and protest voting for him, but not many because of his alt-right views.

He's trying to win libertarians and deficit hawks. He'll probably lose, but maybe he embarrasses Bush with a good showing in Iowa or New Hampshire.
 
September 1st, 2003. Primary Polls:

The rest of August remained uneventful outside of the Presidential race. Congressman Paul hit the campaign trail hard and spent most of the first two weeks of him campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two contests in the Presidential Primaries and on the campaign trail he discussed the deficit and scaling back the size of the federal government. On September 1st, polling taken over the course of the two weeks that Congressman Ron Paul has been in the race were released. Among Republicans polled, President Bush had 80% of support while Congressman Paul had 15%. 5% of Republican and Republican leaning Respondents were undecided. President Bush's job approval rating was still at the 52% that it was at after the passage of Medicare Part D.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore was in the lead with 37% of Democrats supporting him, an increase of 12% since the end of July. Due to his role in the negotiations that led to the passage of Medicare Part D, Speaker Gephardt also saw an increase in support. The Speaker of the House was in second place with 35%. Senator Paul Wellstone, the favorite among both young and liberal Democrats, was in third with 18%. Senator Edwards and Governor Dean were both tied at 5% each, meaning both were the only two candidates to see a loss of support. During an appearance on "The Daily Show with John Stewart" on September 3rd, host John Stewart asked Senator Edwards about his decline in support. Edwards responded by saying that "It's still early in the process. Things change and I'm confident that once more people hear our message, they'll like what they hear and will join our team." Governor Dean was asked about his falling support at a campaign rally in Iowa and the Governor said that "People will see what I did in Vermont and will want the same for America. I'm confident that the polls will change and change in our favor as this process plays out."
 
Which Democrat do you hope wins? I'm hoping for Rightful President Al Gore to win and trounce Bush in a rematch, plus he'd be the most likely to fight climate change.

Although strategically a second Bush term would be nice cause then we can blame the recession on him. :p
 
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