The Tories lose to Labour in 1992

Thande

Donor
I'm not sure if this has ever been done before.

OTL, the Tories came from behind in 1992 to achieve a rather surprising victory. In hindsight many commentators have said that Kinnock was unelectable, but I don't think that was the feeling at the time. He was far from the best leader Labour could have had, but the Tories were well into their 'spectacularly unpopular phase'. If it hadn't been for Major's spirited grassroots campaign and some gaffes on Labour's part, I think the election could easily have gone the other way.

Feel free to argue with the above and post counterarguments, but in any case I want to focus on the consequences rather than how we got there. Let's say Labour win with a similar majority to what the Tories got in OTL, ie around 20-25. Is this enough for them to push through what will (knowing Labour as of 1992) be probably a fairly radical policy agenda?

Will there be a Lib-Lab pact?

Does Black Tuesday still happen?

How will Major be viewed compared to OTL - he's never won an election on his own merits, so he could be a Callaghan figure, but on the other hand he hasn't lost as spectacularly as he did OTL in 1997.

Discuss.
 
well i was only.... 6 at the time... don't remember much about it... is it a bad thing i don't know much about recent british history? i think at the time i was too busy playing with lego:p
 
I'm not sure if this has ever been done before.

OTL, the Tories came from behind in 1992 to achieve a rather surprising victory. In hindsight many commentators have said that Kinnock was unelectable, but I don't think that was the feeling at the time. He was far from the best leader Labour could have had, but the Tories were well into their 'spectacularly unpopular phase'. If it hadn't been for Major's spirited grassroots campaign and some gaffes on Labour's part, I think the election could easily have gone the other way.

Feel free to argue with the above and post counterarguments, but in any case I want to focus on the consequences rather than how we got there. Let's say Labour win with a similar majority to what the Tories got in OTL, ie around 20-25. Is this enough for them to push through what will (knowing Labour as of 1992) be probably a fairly radical policy agenda?

Will there be a Lib-Lab pact?
Does Black Tuesday still happen?

How will Major be viewed compared to OTL - he's never won an election on his own merits, so he could be a Callaghan figure, but on the other hand he hasn't lost as spectacularly as he did OTL in 1997.
Discuss.


Black Wednesday will still happen. The Labour party supported British entry into the ERM.

The fact is that Kinnock, a dense, verbose, not very talented man, was truly unelectable.
 
Black Wednesday will still happen. The Labour party supported British entry into the ERM.

The fact is that Kinnock, a dense, verbose, not very talented man, was truly unelectable.

You sound like my father :). To what extent did The Sun effect the out come? 21 seat, are you saying there is no way Kinnock could win a further 21 seats?
 
You sound like my father :). To what extent did The Sun effect the out come? 21 seat, are you saying there is no way Kinnock could win a further 21 seats?

The Tories had a 21 seat majority over all the other parties combined. I can't remember the exact figures, but with Lib Dems, Ulster parties, the SNP and Plaid Cymru having about 40 - 50 MPs between them, the Tories must have been at least 60 seats ahead of Labour.

Your dad seems a very intelligent man! :)
 
The Tories had a 21 seat majority over all the other parties combined. I can't remember the exact figures, but with Lib Dems, Ulster parties, the SNP and Plaid Cymru having about 40 - 50 MPs between them, the Tories must have been at least 60 seats ahead of Labour.

Your dad seems a very intelligent man! :)

My bad, I remembered the number 21 but forgot its context :eek:. Still, I think a victory is not impossible.
 
Never underestimate the ability for people to torpedo their own campaigns.

I believe Kinnock was fairly unelectable, but if Major takes a gun and starts shooting himself in the foot over and over...
 
The Kinnock Labour party was so 'unelectable' in 1992 that the polls all the way through the campaign showed Labour ahead.

IMO all the post facto analysis of Kinnock's personality, the Labour manifesto, the Sheffield Rally etc was just rationalisation of a last minute swing caused by who knows what random factors. Somehow the Conservatives just managed to score a late winner against the run of play.

I'm not a Labour supporter BTW.
 

Thande

Donor
The Kinnock Labour party was so 'unelectable' in 1992 that the polls all the way through the campaign showed Labour ahead.

IMO all the post facto analysis of Kinnock's personality, the Labour manifesto, the Sheffield Rally etc was just rationalisation of a last minute swing caused by who knows what random factors. Somehow the Conservatives just managed to score a late winner against the run of play.

I'm not a Labour supporter BTW.

Exactly. As the Americans say, hindsight is 20/20. In some ATL somewhere not too far away, people are right now claiming that there was no possible way John Major could have won an election, with his grey lack of charisma and the baggage he inherited from Thatcher.
 
Hmm... as I understand the period, by 1992 most of the infighting in Labour was pretty much over and done with. On the other hand, if they do have a majority of only 20-25 (which is workable, but still small), then I think they would consider some sort of arrangement - but with whom?

During this period, the remnants of the original Liberal party were still around, and the majority had left to officially merge with the SDP (giving us the Liberal Democrats).
I suppose the Lib Dems would be considered closer, politically, to Labour than the Liberals. However, with much of the former party being made up of ex-SDP members - who themselves had split from Labour only a decade before - there might be a certain amount of bad blood between the two. Also, Labour and the Liberals had supposedly co-operated before, after the Labour Party went into minority government in 1977. That didn't work out, due to differences over proportional representation, so I'm not sure a similar pact later on would produce any better result.

I seem to be giving more questions than answers here, so I'll stop...:eek::D
 
I don't have the time to write a full response to this at the moment, but all would depend on whether Black Wednesday happens or not. I'm not an economist - in fact, I'm shit at economics - so I can only comment on this in a limited fashion, but I don't think it would neccessarily have to happen if Labour won in 1992 (I think the Bundesbank may have been willing to cut a little more slack with an incoming Labour than with a Thatcherite government which had basically been vehemntly anti-Europe in it's rhetoric for over a decade) - although I think it would still be very likely.

If it does happen, then Labour would probably be totally destroyed for a generation. There's also Maastricht as well, (which would be inevitable) which would be a head-fuck for any government with a small majority.

My old Politics lecturer often said that, whoever you were politically, 1992 was, in hindsight, the election to lose. It's very true.
 

hammo1j

Donor
IIRC Labour did back the ERM OTL and so there would have been black Wednesday.

1992 Kinnock introduces new media control laws - Murdoch forced to sell the Scum and pay some tax to retain his Sky empire.
Renationalisation of water,

1992 Black Tuesday - Labour most hated government ever in UK.
Massive expansion of NHS.

1993 Renationalisation of gas and electricity abandoned.

1994 John Smith inspires a vote of No Confidence in Kinnock. In the Election a young leader, Tony Blair triumphs. Smith gets chancellorship as part of the deal and puts a Cap on NHS spending and takes the pound out of the ERM.
He survives a heart attack.

1995 Heseltine gets his hands on Tory leadership at last as John Major fails to capitalize on Labour's woes.
 
IIRC Labour did back the ERM OTL and so there would have been black Wednesday.

Yes it did, but Black Wednesday, IIRC, was also caused by a lot of intransigence on both sides (The government and the Bundesbank) in the run up to the event. This is by no means assured under Labour.
 
Yes it did, but Black Wednesday, IIRC, was also caused by a lot of intransigence on both sides (The government and the Bundesbank) in the run up to the event. This is by no means assured under Labour.

This is true, but they would also come under more market pressure, with the reputation that "Labour government's devalue." This could reinforce the government's instransigence, they might even hang on longer.

As their policy on coming into government was an immediate 1 percentage point cut in interest rates they might also feel the heat sooner.

Ultimately I agree with you - they might avoid it but probably not. Worse if they don't in a way - stuck with high, distorting interest rates.
 
What happens to Tony Blair? Where was he in '92? I assume he must've been an MP? He presumably gets a cabinet post. And Gordon Brown?
 
What happens to Tony Blair? Where was he in '92? I assume he must've been an MP? He presumably gets a cabinet post. And Gordon Brown?

Brown was Shadow Secretary of State for Trade and Industry pre-1992, and Blair was Shadow Secretary of State for Employment.

Now it's not neccessary that they should be appointed to those positions in government if Labour won an election, although it's quite likely. Both of them are (were) cabinet posts, but of the middle-rank.
 

ninebucks

Banned
Whether or not Neil Kinnock was electable is completely irrelevant, as the premiership is not an elected position!

I think a Labour victory in 1992 would almost definitely butterfly away the Blairite, New Labour project, and that will have huge repercussions...
 
Whether or not Neil Kinnock was electable is completely irrelevant, as the premiership is not an elected position!

I think a Labour victory in 1992 would almost definitely butterfly away the Blairite, New Labour project, and that will have huge repercussions...

I saw Neil Kinnock up in London a few months ago, actually. I went to see a play my brother was in here (next to GLA building), and he was a couple of rows in front of me. I felt like grabbing him by the shoulders and shouting, "Why? Why did you KEEP LOSING? WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU, MAN?!?"

That would have gone down well...
 
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