The Time of Eagles

Guess I should write up the end of this war rather than have it as a narrative, then baseline 1910, do what I can with maps, advance the date to a point where I can begin to novelise at longer length and maybe decamp to the Writers Forum

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Streuth, still no comments on all the recent parts

The flight of Voisin aeroplanes circled overhead, bright blues and greens against the rather dismal clouds casting their pall over the day. This was the first time that many of the worthies present had seen such aerial vehicles, their concept and control being radically different from the earlier Cayley-type which had now been totally eclipsed by progress.

It was noon on an early May day, 1910, and the world had come to Paris. It had taken over nine months to arrange this Congress, months of bickering, squabbling, outright refusals and outraged rejections, before eventually the constant weedling diplomacy had worn even the most intransigent down. So, to Paris they had all come.

The palace of the Tuilleries served as the venue, set in its magnificent gardens in the very heart of Paris, with giant bronze statues of the Heroes of the Republic looming over the trees in the Park of Liberty. Chinese noblemen, Fredonian senators, both looked somewhat askance at such massive hubris, but this was the French Republic, and nobody expected it to be anything but unique in what it was.

President de Lesseps was the host of the Congress, a silver-headed giant of a man, calm of nature, but sharp of eye. He could charm the birds down from the trees, or command his generals to machinegun them into oblivion. That was his nature. This day, he sat in the centre of the main podium, miniature binoculars trained upon the aeroplanes above, smiling every now and then at some acrobatic antic, and at the anticipated monies flowing into the Voisin factories, of which the Republic was a 40% stakeholder.

Protocol had been a nightmare to arrange, and who was to sit where and who was to have precedence over whom had been an intricate and complex puzzle that the best minds in European diplomacy had puzzled over for many weeks. In the end, it had been agreed that there would be four other podiums, each set off from the main one, two to the left, two to the right, forming something of a cross-pattern, and that none was to have precedence over another. In this way, the Secretary of War and State from the United States of America, the Vice President of the Republic of Fredonia, the Ambassador Plenipotentiary of the Chinese Empire (an imperial prince no less), and the Grand Vizier of the Mughal Empire had been accomodated

The Secretary of State for the Republic of Oregon sat alongside the Fredonian; the Lord of Satsuma, representing both his independent lordship of the isles of Amami and the Kingdom of Okinawa, sat beside the American giant, and so it went on. The allies and interested parties clustering around their principles.

To the left of President de Lesseps, upon the main podium, was the Tsesarevitch of the Russian Empire, to the right the Crown Prince of the Empire of Germany. The Prussian Ambassador sat beyond the Russian, the Austrian beyond the German, again reflecting the pattern of alliances. It all worked out - just about. In the main, those who still complained were minor enough figures to put up with - Paris did not really worry too much if the Ambassador of Chile was unhappy, or if the Crown Prince of Asa still sulked. All the major players were somewhere...

For David Ogilvy, 11th Earl of Airlie, that place seemed rather incongruous to him, but London had approved it, and so he sat at the right-hand of the Mughal Grand Vizier as an "interested party". His opposite number the other side of the bejewelled gentleman was the Crown Prince of the Sikh Empire, whilst the Ambassador of the Empire of Egypt seemed content to have a less high profile role to his own right. He had enquired carefully as to the reason behind this, and been told that Egypt wished to play down any accusations of involvement in the disastrous events triggered by the attempted forced defection of the Russian Mediterranean Fleet, and was attending merely as an ally of, and as a courtesy to, the Mughal Empire.

As far as Ogilvy could see it made no sense at all, but he held his tongue. For one thing he was the only Christian on this podium, the Sikh prince having as his further companion the Ambassador from Oman, a hard-eyed fellow who had attempted to buttonhole the Britisher with tales of their mutual experiences on Zanzibar, but Ogilvy had made his excuses and run. He might now be Special Ambassador for Great Britain, but he still felt unease at all that had led him upon the road to fame.

Beyond the podiums, other dignatories sat in large tiered stands, those from less favoured nations, or in most cases additional diplomats, aides and interested parties from the nations whose principals sat before them. Their time would come in the conference halls of the Tuilleries palace, but first, in typical French style, the festivities


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The above 1910 piece has implicit the following events between 1908 (where I left off the narrative) and late 1909 (when the fighting more or less ceased)

- Fredonian use of nerve agents devastates the US offensive into 'San Diego'

- Fredonia also begins deploying coastal submarines which inflict some damage on the blockading US fleet and cause it to draw back - this in turn has the twin effects of allowing a resumption of Fredonian coastal trade, and freeing up elements of the US fleet for more distant operations

- China has purchased Voisin aeroplanes from France, and via China's convoy route across the N Pacific these get to Fredonia and allow them to challenge the Goodyear zepellins in the skies above California

- Satsuma rises in rebellion against the Chinese occupiers, masterminded from the Ashima Islands by the daimyo. US naval units arrive at Okinawa. Eventually, the Chinese defeat Satsuma on Kyushu, but Satsuma loyalists hold the islands, and with US support Okinawa declares that its independence is supreme over assumed vassalages

- US factories in Tejas (where most investment in new arms manufacturing has concentrated) begin to turn out their own version of Voisin aeroplanes

- - -

In the UPCA, the Spanish and dominion of Granada forces take the capital, San Jose, but Mexico decides to ally with the UPCA rather than to launch their own speculative invasion. For some border adjustments, Mexico pours its army in and manages to stabilise the front

Mexican and Republic of Spain warships clash in the Caribbean in a series of battles


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The above 1910 piece has implicit the following events between 1908 (where I left off the narrative) and late 1909 (when the fighting more or less ceased)

- Fredonian use of nerve agents devastates the US offensive into 'San Diego'

- Fredonia also begins deploying coastal submarines which inflict some damage on the blockading US fleet and cause it to draw back - this in turn has the twin effects of allowing a resumption of Fredonian coastal trade, and freeing up elements of the US fleet for more distant operations

- China has purchased Voisin aeroplanes from France, and via China's convoy route across the N Pacific these get to Fredonia and allow them to challenge the Goodyear zepellins in the skies above California

- Satsuma rises in rebellion against the Chinese occupiers, masterminded from the Ashima Islands by the daimyo. US naval units arrive at Okinawa. Eventually, the Chinese defeat Satsuma on Kyushu, but Satsuma loyalists hold the islands, and with US support Okinawa declares that its independence is supreme over assumed vassalages

- US factories in Tejas (where most investment in new arms manufacturing has concentrated) begin to turn out their own version of Voisin aeroplanes

- - -

In the UPCA, the Spanish and dominion of Granada forces take the capital, San Jose, but Mexico decides to ally with the UPCA rather than to launch their own speculative invasion. For some border adjustments, Mexico pours its army in and manages to stabilise the front

Mexican and Republic of Spain warships clash in the Caribbean in a series of battles


Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Grey,

What's the economic development level of China ITTL by comparison with other nations of the time?

Best Regards,
Archangel
 
Grey,

What's the economic development level of China ITTL by comparison with other nations of the time?

Best Regards,
Archangel

I intended it to be roughly similar to Japan of OTL, or perhaps more like the Japan of 1905 anyway

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Great point about the Palace of the Tuileries. IOTL, it was no longer standing by that point.

I gather it hasn't been burned down ITTL during the any of the various civil disturbance.

I take it you used OTL trocadero as a model for the bronze statues?
 
Great point about the Palace of the Tuileries. IOTL, it was no longer standing by that point.

I gather it hasn't been burned down ITTL during the any of the various civil disturbance.

I take it you used OTL trocadero as a model for the bronze statues?

Its still there :)

As for the bronze statues, I used my insane imagination, but it probably correlates to the Trocadero !

Hope you had a good New Year

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Hope you had a good New Year

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Thank you. I had a great one. Went off skiing for two weeks straight in the french Alps with the familly and the wheather was excellent ( fully sunny every day except one ).

I hope you also had a good New year and wish you a happy year 2009.

Best Regards,

Frederic Haessig
 
I don't think this piece particuarly worked as a narrative element, but it does highlight something which was a concern at the time - place, position, and relative standing between the representatives of powers in any important event. I remember reading about Edward VII and the Crown Prince of Germany arguing because the Crown Prince had been placed behind the King of the Friendly Isles (Tonga) - Edward VII said something along the lines of "Either the brute is a king, in which case he's more important than you, or he's just a savage, in which case what is he doing here?". Of course, the German wasn't mollified !

In the Tuilleries piece, I've tried to show how such concerns could lead to circles within circles, and how the nature of the representative a power chooses to send could help determine where they are placed - ie Egypt is clearly a major power, but wants to play down its role so only sends its Ambassador, whereas the Mughal Empire has sent its head of government, and other nations have sent the heirs to their Heads of State. An ordinary Ambassador ranks below a Special Ambassador/Ambassador Plenipotentiary and so on, and below a Foreign Minister etc

I'd hoped this snippet would allow me to make the peace conference real, but it reminds me too much of all my AFOE writings and plans for me to feel true in putting any effort into it. What stipulations should there be, anyway ? San Diego I was reckoning was to be partitioned 50-50 - there's no city left anyway at the end of the war, only the bay really counts. Santa Fe goes to Fredonia, but not the whole territory, only the area to block in the Fredonian geography on the map. Given earlier losses, the USA under the Dictatorship would be able play these up as gains - ie we didn't lose as much as the Democracy would have done, etc.

I've played a lot, at least in the background, upon the Shogunate's inherent weakness in allowing China to conquer Japan - this is a China that has been steadily modernising since the 1840s-1850s, whereas Japan hasn't really. China probably looks to Egypt as something of a role model, tho no doubt would not admit it. The reliance of the Shogunate upon the domain armies allows China to play the domains off against one another and thus weaken the centre. I made a slight mistake earlier on in thinking Edo was the imperial capital, whereas that was Kyoto, with Edo being the Shogun's capital, but in essence I repaired this error in the last post made about Japan.

China won't have it all their own way in ruling Japan, but they have vassal empires in Vietnam and in Korea (I fancy seeing the empire emerge there under Chinese suzerainty in this timeline) so having the Emperor of Japan remain on his throne but subservient to Peking won't seem an anomaly. The Shogun is gone, the daimyos are broken, administrators run the domains, tho no doubt some of these are daimyos who now have a civil rather than a feudal role for accepting Ching rule. Satsuma I had play out different due to their island holdings in the South, and their contacts with Okinawa, and I posited a US fleet ending up there, with China deciding not to push things to a climax which could risk the major gain if lost - i.e. China probably reckoned it could probably see off this US naval force, but it knew there was a risk of defeat, and decided that risking defeat euated with risking Japan, so accepted the US force and Okinawan independence as the price of ensuring its control of the Japanese home islands

New England's role in all this was lots of intrigue, and whilst I planned to expand upon it in the narrative, the need to kill the narrative and move on to the summary basically means that whatever it was irrelevant in the end. With regard to European politics, I have Dreyfuss kicked out of office, internally exiled and later assassinated for what many see as leading France to a humiliating defeat in India. Bismarck the younger is more fortunate, ust being retired to his estates, and dreaming of a comeback. Prussia, tho, turns more towards its Russian alliance as a result of all this, seeing Western European entanglements as too risky. Within the German Empire, the question of succession as usual again rears its ugly head, and brings greater power to the Frankfurt Ass. This could lead to a pseudo-democratisation, but democracy in all its guises is having a funny time of it in this world !

The French Republic, and its barrier allies, are probably the most democratic countries, whilst Britain has a large franchise, but currently something of a conservative reaction to what is seen as the failed years of SDF rule. However, this Reformist conservative era is itself stuttering towards a close, with new tensions rising from automation and major technological changes in how people, transport, and industry relate to one another. The advances of the SDF era, which became bedded down and institutionalised under the conservative Reform era, are now being challenged by a new rising workers' voice.

Fredonia is more oligarchical than true democratic, whilst the USA has re-embraced the Dictatorship as the way of getting things done. Pershing may be Dictator, but the true power behind his throne lies in the Ohians, and their mixture of militarism and revanchism, led by W H Taft. The loss of the Northern part of their state in the 1860s civil war (it became the New England state of West Connecticut) and the concentration of certain industries in S Ohio, not least Goodyear, give the Ohians a powerful voice in national politics. They have allies in Virginia (Wilson with a slightly different forename) and in Tejas, which due to the war became the powerhouse of the new armaments, and counter-measures, industries.

Russia is obviously going to be a major power in times a-coming, and I see Moscow emerging as the national capital, being a way between the court which still revolves around Saint Petersburg life, and the Southern Capital of Constantinople, which I see the Tsar as wanting to integrate more firmly into the Russian state. Over time, perhaps by the 1930s, it would lose its Viceroy, and become an administrative zone of the empire, rather than an add-on to it. Things can't move too quickly, not least because Nikolai II relies on Bulgarians, Orthodox clerics, Phanariot Greeks etc to fill many of the administrative positions. Armenians, Pontine Greeks, Georgians etc would be out of favour due to their preponderance amongst the numbers of the deserting fleet, which is a wound which will run long and deep in the Russian psyche. Nikolai II is getting on, but he has a vision for the empire, and that includes leaving a successful state to his son.

The Duma exists and has powers, but Nikolai II has resisted calls for, and attempts to give it, more power. He understands that keeping the unity of the empire at this critical stage requires him to remain above factionism, but to retain sufficient powers to exercise imperial fiat as necessary. Thus many would see the Duma as being an advisory body, its powers akin to the Prussian parliament, with an ability to vote on the budget, but not to create or promote too much legislation of its own. The Tsar would certainly look at Paris, London or Frankfurt as being anathema to what he is trying to create.

The navy, massive irony of ironies, is actually going to be a maor vehicle for the later years of Nikolai II's reign. He has seen the underlying truth in his cousin's arguments, tho won't ever admit this, and the New Navy built upon the ruins of the desertion and battle off Alexandria, is a powerful, forward-focused and major force. The Constantinople-based fleet is designated the Southern Fleet with a remit including not only local waters (including the Black Sea and the Med) but also the Indian Ocean. It is built up by a series of increasingly large annual Navy Bills and becomes the foremost naval force of the empire. The Baltic Fleet may have been redesignated the Atlantic Fleet but it is very much secondary to the Southern Fleet. The Southern Fleet from hereon also provides the ships for the Pacific Sqaudron, whose bases are in the Sea of Okhotsk, the Kamchatka Peninsular, and Alaska, as well as extra-territorially in the Kingdom of Hawaii which makes something of a living from renting out facilities - whether to China, to the USA, or to Russia, it worries not

Egypt in this period will see the emergence of modernity versus tradition as a major problem. Alexandria is the leading industrialised city, with more jobs in new industries, a more liberal attitude, and more social development than anywhere else. Cairo, and the other Levantine ports more or less follow a close second, whilst interior cities lag far behind. Baghdad is the epitomy of this, being a cultural and religious centre but with little industrialisation and hugely conservative attitudes. The Egyptian Emperor attempts to span all of these contradictions, but a clash of cultures is becoming increasingly inevitable

With regard to military advances, the Russian Empire would adopt a combination of what seems necessary against Egypt, and what seems proven in the experience of the warring powers in recent years. Thus, the armoured tractored gun would be developed further, on the one hand, whilst giant airships, Russian franchising of Voisin aeroplanes, the development of a national chemical industry for gas shells, sourcing large numbers of motor trucks, increasing the heavy freight capacity of the railways, and developing specialised trench-fighting units will all have a major place in reforms during the 1910s.

In global naval development, this period sees the final demise of the corvette and its replacement by the more specialised ships of either the armoured cruiser or the scout cruiser. One ship to perform both roles is deemed an anachronism by the results of fighting, both off the Pacific West coast, and from the Mexican-Spanish clashes in the Caribbean. In addition, the ironclad battleship is being slowly superseded by the 3-turret New Battleship as developed by the Chinese, having not only the traditional fore and aft turrets, but also a new centre turret. French naval designers at the main Chinese naval ports are a driving factor in this, but it takes Germany's adoption of the type to finally spur a modernisation amongst the European navies. Russia is a swift convert once this happens

Submarines proved their potential off the Pacific West coast, Fredonia's use of them allowing her to drive back the American close blockade and resume her own vital coastal trade. Greater range, and staying power, are coming into effect with several nations leading the development - Fredonia, China, the USA and Russia.

The aviso (modern equivalent to a light destroyer or tbd) has also proved its value as a fleet defence, and occasional attack ship, and the same group of nations is working on developing these as a more long-range viable fleet unit. The invention of turbine engines, at this point a cutting-edge technology in a world where some things are more forward than OTL, and other things more backward than OTL, will allow this to occur. Which country turbines develop in is a good question, but it could well be in the New England Confederacy which is probably the world's leading mercantile power, and where the competing mercantile houses (Vanderbilt, Bonaparte etc) would vy with one another for advantage. Development of the turbine for use in merchant ships would soon get the interest of naval forces of neighbouring, and competing, powers, and by franchise and sale of patent rights become a formidable force in the 1910s

The conflict or race between the airship and the aeroplane remains far from decided. It is 1910 and the leading contenders are the Goodyear heavy zeppelin, with its German antecedents, and its Russian clones, on the one hand, and the Voisin aeroplane with its Chinese and Fredonian subsidiaries and Russian franchises on the other hand. The Cayley aeroplane, basically a powered glider with some directional ability, is now an out-dated technology, as is the light airship as epitomised in this world by Santos-Dumant. In terms of warfare, these technologies have been left behind and superceded.

The Fredonian development of primitive nerve agents is also a new factor in warfare. Their deployment at San Diego blunted, and then stagnated the American counter-offensive, and counter-measures to such gases have yet to be developed. It was noted with interest in some European capitals, though, that Fredonia basically had to divert a massive proportion of its budget to its chemical industries in order to develop and then produce this weapon, and that this outlay would not normally be available to most countries in most circumstances.

Trying to write a summary of the entire world is a bit of a challenge, here, and focused questions by readers really do help - so please, ask them !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
All caught up finally.

Some people on this Board prefer bare bones TL to the use of fiction. What a shame. Some of the more recent fictional pieces were very good esp. the nerve agent piece.

What is the state of science---Tesla, Einstein, Rutherford, Curie et al.?
 
1910s - 1920s

The question of where great powers' interests clash and who may end up going to war with whom is a complex one. The Dictatorship of the United States is not going to value alliances particularly high, the example of Semmes' Democracy not being a good one. They would, though, have interest in protectorates - the Kingdom of Okinawa, and the independent Lordship of Satsuma (Amami Islands). Pershing would no doubt adopt the example of Morton and Sherman and restrict himself to the single ten year term voted him by Congress. After that, perhaps Admiral Maverick is a good bet. The men of the party stand back from the highest office, and use that office for their own ends, in a sort of alliance of interests.

The USA has several major things facing it in the 1910s - the question of statehood for Sonora, Chihuahua and N Tejas; developing fleets for the Pacific and the Atlantic to a joint high standard; servicing the debt; dealing with House's rebellion (1912 might be a good bet for that). The latter was a long time brewing but swept into it many diverse elements - not the slaves, or freed blacks, who rose pre-emptively and were bloodily put down by 1909. In a sense House's 1912 rebellion would be a catharsis, the ridding from the body politic of various dis-satisfied and disenfranchised groups. It would probably result in a security clampdown, the emergence of more formal security organs, and a definitive feeling that the Dictatorship was, this time, the way forward in a permanent form.

The budget would be the major lingering problem, delyaing naval development, restricting aerial expansion, holding back social programmes (such as they are). But by the 1920s, it would be under control, and the post-war economic boom would have embraced the USA as much as it had elsewhere.

I'm reckoning there would be a boom based on the lack of direct involvement of several major powers. Britain, France, Germany, Prussia, Egypt to name but a few. China might be exhausted, Russia in the midst of major restructuring, the USA, Fredonia, Spain and Mexico (not to mention the UPCA) all drained by the war. But the major economies of Europe remain only preipherally touched, and for all their setbacks in India, France and Prussia have mainly failed to gain rather than actually lost out.

- - -

I am thinking that in terms of major clashes, a Russo-Chinese War probably makes best sense. Russia retains Alaska, but its Eastern ports are on the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kamchatka Peninsular, as China held onto the Amur Maritime provinces.

Hmmm, I don't think we're really getting anywhere here...


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
ELEMENTS

Russo-Chinese War

Egyptian civil war / religious revolt

House's 1912 rebellion

Fredonia - Indian clash

New England - - - Tesla ?
or maybe Germany

USA - Sonora, Chihuahua, N Tejas statehood
- slavery as economic dead-end but social necessity

Britain - workers reaction to conservative reform
? Labour Party ? - an AH name would be useful - Workers Party ?

German Empire
- SUCCESSION !!!

New England
- turbines

Japan
- vassal empire, like Vietnam and Korea, of China

Okinawan independence
Independent Lordship of Satsuma (Amima)
- US protectorates

Kingdom of Hawaii
- several major nations have basing rights here

Sultanate of Oman/Zanzibar
- still a slaver

Mughal Empire

Sikh Empire

Republic of France

Kingdom of Prussia

Austria

- - -

Let's set a 1920 date, and see what we get by then.

The turbine is invented by the NEC shipping companies, and soon becomes standard for their merchant ships, franchised out to British, French and Spanish naval builders and from there to Russia, Germany, Sweden, Austria, Egypt, China etc

Gets to the USA via a long route, having arrived at Fredonia first via China

Establishment of a powerful US force at Okinawa/Amima
Not just major and new warships (in China's backyard)
but also Marines, forts etc
Clear delineation US protectorate / local independent institutions
Allows for near full civil self-government
Only in military and foreign policy does the US predominate

China increasingly concerned by Russia
- incursions into N Korea, Hokkaido
Moscow has decided that it cannot accept the status quo of 1910, and by the mid 1910s it is determined to force a showdown with China

Problem of course is that China is at home, with substantial resources, backed by France and powerful

By 1915, Russian modernisation is focused on the China front, with others lagging behind

Tsar Nikolai II is dying (b 1843, aged in his early 70s and not well), but determined to see his policy out
He forces a war with China

Peking tries to avoid it, but it becomes obvious that Moscow is set upon a course for war

Russo-Chinese War of 1916-1918

Germany is plunged into the midst of another succession crisis
Prussia has grown introspective and close to Russia
France is unwilling to risk war when it has no closer allies to Russia
Egypt is in the midst of the Religious Revolt

What would the course of the war be ?

Russia would have completed the Trans-Continental Railway to Ayan (Okhotsk), with a spur down Kamchatka to Petropavlosk (main naval port in the region)

Russia's Pacific Squadron is an offshoot of the Southern Fleet out of the Med, and by the mid 1910s would consist of 1910-vintage vessels, the older ones now being replaced. They would be based on Ayan, Petropavlosk, Hawaii and Kodiak

Russia has a large fleet of franchised Goodyear heavy zeps, and Voisin aeroplanes

China likewise has many Voisin aeroplanes

The main difference might be that Russia took control of the type for a fee whilst China mainly relies on France to come up with developments

This allows Russia a diversification and development that China cannot match, tho in close combat China's machines will be the best there is

Russia also can muster several armies at points it chooses around the Chinese border

- - -

But China is not so easily defeated. Nikolai II does not live to see success, dying in 1918 amidst untold reports of a depressing nature. Initial Russian gains have been repulsed by Chinese counter-attacks

- China grants the title of Emperor to the Bogd Khan of Mongolia and adopts Mongolia as a vassal, rather than an integral part, giving it parity with Vietnam, Korea and Japan and in so doing turning its rebellion outwards against the Russians

- Chinese navy forces, harried by Russian forces constantly reinforced from Europe, turn to submarines in great measure, and see off the Russian blockade, with many great successes

- China's French Voisin aeroplanes cannot handle the Russian innovation, so Peking ends up franchising Fredonian innovations back at themselves, pouring money into their N American ally in return for Fredonian inventiveness, which eventually reduces the aerial war to a stalemate

The USA has its own problems, pushing through messy statehood for the 3 remaining Territories of the SW, and dealing with an increasingly obvious dichotomy between social and economic needs with regard to slavery. Pershing's term is coming to an end, and forces are gathering behind Maverick

With Fredonia also bogged down in war against the Indians of the remnant Great Plains Confederacy, no N American power has the force to spare for all-out war

Japan sees several revolts against Chinese rule, but with Russian unable to give any meanginful help, and the USA distracted, these do not amount to a sufficient diversion to hinder Chinese efforts against Russia. Paradoxically, China allows the Emperor to raise forces from certain domains, and their governors (appointed not hereditry) prove loyal and crush the revolts.

Satsuma (Amami) does not partipate tho abut 1/3 of its Samurai leave privately and land on Kyushu to fight a brave war to the death in support of the rebellion

1918 sees the death of Nikolai II, and the coronation of his son, the Tsesarevitch, as Aleksandr III

It is obvious by this time that China has achieved a sufficient defence to prevent Russia from achieving its aims, and Aleksandr III takes advantage of the boost a new emperor has in deciding to recognise this and bring in neutral mediation

In November 1918, Great Britain hosts the London Conference, and by New Year 1919 a peace treaty between Russia and China has been drawn up
- in terms of changes little is mentioned
- but China's position is increased by several important elements
- - - Fredonian franchises break her reliance on France for aeroplane developments
- - - Submarines built in Chinese yards played a major role in defeating the Russian blockade
- - - Japan has seen the emperor and specific domains fight internal foes for Peking's sake
- - - the potential problem of Mongolia has been solved by bringing them fully into the imperial vassal system

- - -

Tsar Aleksandr III plays down the strategic defeat

He institutes a purge of the Russian high command which cripples the empire for a decade

- - -

Thus, 1920 as a baseline sees

- a stronger China
- an internally divided Russia
- Fredonia forced to an accord with the Plains Indians, but with its coffers swelled from China, and able to balance relative defeat with advances in living standards
- Maverick's Dictatorship taking hold with a disadvantaged position, but many of the difficult internal decisions made, but slavery still a confusion

- - -

I intend for Europe :-

- Egypt, the Emperor wins the war against religion, subordinates Baghdad etc and imposes his will on the empire

- Germany, one faction emerges strong from the succession crisis (1v)

- Britain, the Workers Party form an unlikely alliance with moderate aristocrats against mercantile/industrial interests to enact legislation

- France, after the 'burning' of Dreyfuss and the Indian Affair, Paris is primarily concerned with her own interests


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Ferdinand von Habsburg, King of Wurzburg, Emperor of Germany
- in OTL the comparative character was born in 1835, died 1908
Here I posit another 8 years or so, of bad health, and health scares
His son, Peter is his chosen heir
But Frankfurt as always has its own ideas

This is complicated by the Wittelsbachs in exile in the Helevetic Republic

But a consensus emerges for a Northern emperor
a balancing of forces
etc

Frederick Augustus of Oldenburg seems a reasonable bet
Proving that the North had become loyal after the various wars
Able to drag in N states opposed in general principle to the Southern-dominated empire

Has to deal with Habsburg and Wittelsbach opposition
Low-scale civil war
More complex palace manoevrings
Attempted coup at Frankfurt by exiled Wittelsbachs

Frankfurt comes out in support of Oldenburg
Quid-pro-quo is Frederick's statement in support of all the powers of the Frankfurt Ass

- - -

By the time this crisis is sorted, other matters have dealt with themselves

- Egypt, where the Emperor has won the Religious War

- Russia, where new Tsar Aleksandr III has made a losing peace with China

- Britain, where the Workers Party and the moderate Conservatives have entered government

- USA where internal problems are resolved enough for it to look outwards again


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The 1920s

Technoligically, the New England Confederacy is the hotbed of development

- turbines now a general worldwide tech
- electricity in transmission towers
- radio in massive stations
- radio as a lesser beast for broadcast to the people as a media like newspaper
- primitive televsion of the disc, developed for gov't communication

The NEC continues to build governmental, non-military, large airships as the safest, easiest and fastest trans-global means of communication

In such it is copied by other nations - Britain, France, Germany, Prussia, Russia, China, the USA, and Fredonia

Private companies' construction is guaranteed by government investment, so Vanderbilt, Bonaparte etc build large airships which see solely government service

Nikola Tesla has settled in the NEC and he proves a driving force in cutting edge electric technologies, NEC grants breaking down industrial and banking walls to provide access to funds and expertise as he builds up the newly-established NEIT (New England Institute of Technology)

- - -

The USA suffers a cataclysmic explosion at its Southern Ohio electric tower project
- much suspicion in Washington falls upon NEC subversives but there is no proof
- but the W Conn 'door' to Ohio has chosen well, and the infiltrators are all men and women with Ohio backgrounds who can enter and leave, and destroy with impunity

Dictator Maverick is determined to close the border
But wiser heads in Washington prevail
- what the USA gains from NEC trade far outweighs possible NEC involvement in destroying a secret project

Maverick appoints General Garcia as Head of Counter-Espionage

- - -

We could zero this at about 1923 and see what happens

Nothing is ever easy

Advancing a timeline certainly is not !



Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
My apologies for not commenting...RL has sucked my time of late.

In broad strokes, TTL is quite interesting: Russia bestrides Eurasia like a purported Colossus, but not it seems, to the exclusion of a vibrant Europe. France has become the world's most stable Republic--terrific. China has managed to industrialize early and retain a strong system of domination over its tradition vassals. And North America is thoroughly balkanized.

A few questions:

1) What is comparable standard of living / total economic output of France, Germany, Austria (still around, right?), the USA, NEC, UPC (Canada), Fredonia (and its satellites), Latin America, China and colonial India? It seems like China still lags Europe and America in respect of the first: how diffuse is this wealth? Is it concentrated on the coast leaving the interior Han provinces poor (typical pattern of most Chinese periods of prosperity)? It seems like the NEC is probably the most advanced in the New World, but I do wonder at the relative levels of Fredonia and the USA. Just in terms of population, if Fredonia can holds its own against the USA, it has a significantly larger population than that section of the US did OTL (even when considering TTL's lesser extent--perhaps slavery plays a role here, but I suspect differing patterns of immigration do as well; it seems like there are more Asians in Fredonia than the USA permitted this early on).

2) You've mentioned that Fredonia is rather oligarchic: how so? Heavy corporate influence or something more formal? Is it a federal system or more unitary in nature? It would seem like there should be some internal tensions here.

3) How do the various nations of North America share water rights? Seemingly silly, I know, but the USA has done some rather interesting things that in a divided North America would be different: for one, a fair amount of water is pumped from the western side of the Continental Divide in Colorado, to the easten side, in order to better farming land in Kansas. Fredonia may encompass the requisite territory to accomplish this, but OTL this is why the Colorado River (the Grand Canyon one) currently rarely reaches the Gulf of California, which would be in the US Southwest. Similarly, has the USA done anything to control flooding in the Tennessee Valley or to combat hurricanes along the Gulf Coast? Daming will be of particular import in Tejas (and wherever OTL Oklahoma is): today, there are several hundred lakes in Texas; only 1 of them is natural, the rest being man-made and in may cases the product of New Deal infrastructure programs. For smaller countries, such projects might be more important but also harder to mount.

4) What exactly are the powers of the Dictator of the US? It doesn't seem to be all that tyrannical a position: they are usually appointed by Congress, they keep to set terms of office. They appear to govern alongside a Congress of sorts. I would imagine that they probably have much, much larger powers vis-a-vis budgets, war, and peace than POTUS does, with Congress being more of an advisory body, rubber-stamping things. However, this isn't entirely a totalitarian autocracy, with the Dictator kept in place by force of arms. Is there a Bill of Rights of any kind? Additionally, what powers does the Dictator's Federal Gov't have vis-a-vis the states? Do they retain governors with free-er elections or has the Dictator co-opted much of local government (much like, say, Putin did vis-a-vis the regions, oblasts, and republics of the Russian Federation)?
 
1923 +

IIRC 1923 is the year of the OTL Tokyo Earthquake. Whilst weather patterns and hurricaines would all have been changed beyond recognition by different wars, emanations into the atmosphere and so on, I see no reason for earthquakes to have been!

The Edo Earthquake of 1923 thus proves a major headache for China, and probably stops them from building much on their victory over Russia. Dealing with the aftermath of the quake, and of the firestorm that still seems inevitable in this ATL, and the unrest subsequent to this is going to cost Peking a lot. It may in fact cost them more than the OTL cost to Imperial Japan, because its bound to set off rebellions and uprisings against Chinese overlordship, and China is going to be bogged down for a few years in putting these down and reasserting control

- - -

The rest of the 1920s could thus be a time of quiet problems, of nations rebuilding after crises, of social and political battles being fought at home, and of steadty scientific development, laced with as many failures as successes - eg Tesla's dreams of aerial power transmission come to nothing after a substantial outlay into his experimental theory, whilst the disc-television idea is launched commercially with hopes akin to the nascent but booming radio industry, but crashes with great losses.

These reverses would mark the end of a period of scientific dominance for the New England Confederacy, where both government and banks are going to be increasing leery of spending/lending vast sums on what might be a failed technology

France and the German Empire might lead something of a European arms race, both nations rebuilding a strong global position, and with their social problems under control. This could see the development of the philosophy of motorised infantry, building on armoured tractor guns, including covering them completely as a sort of proto heavy-tank, developing aeroplanes now free from original patent considerations

This latter would allow for much private experimentation, and within the German Empire a proliferation of smaller companies keen to build on the Voisin Principle and to create something to challenge Zepellin's continued dominance in transport, with its steadily-improved airships of all sizes

One can see Prussia renewing its alliance with Russia, and signing pacts of mutual co-operation

Naval development would certainly take note of China's successes against Russian blockaders with their home-built submarines, and a boom in submarine construction seems natural, especially among the second rate naval powers. The great powers might well build up their submarine fleets, but invest their money into experimenting with new types - submarine cruisers, submarine minelayers, submarine tankers, submarine gunships (think the OTL M class with its single 11 or 12" gun). I don't, tho, see this extending to fleet submarines (OTL K class) simply because the idea would have no ATL logic behind it

Voisin are probably the main French aeroplane company. The relaxation of patents would allow other companies to build up, but Voisin would retain the lion's share of the lucrative French market. I could imagine them developing prototype seaplanes, and looking at the Fredonian, Russian and Chinese designs from the Russo-Chinese War, developing mainstream production of bombers, transport aircraft, torpedo bombers (in this ATL a torpedo is still called a missile), maybe even dive bombers.

In OTL Voisin diversified into some car manufacturing, and I could certainly see them being richer in this ATL, and making a go of a major French automobile company. If we allow both brothers to survive into the 1920s, then the inventive ethos is going to continue at a pace

Prussia is probably slower to develop an aeroplane industry of their own, and probably buy in Russian designs, franchise them etc. Maybe a Richtofen Company makes its name by producing high-quality copies of Russian designs ? Kind of amusing, I feel

Sweden and Rumania also develop their own aeroplane industries during the 1920s, maybe we can see Rumania (which, remember has no coast in this ATL) having Vlaicu develop his ideas, live longer of course, and create a strong native company ?

Its useful in an ATL to have names - of people, of place, and of companies and types of machines, simply because it makes it all the more realistic. Sure, you can argue that some of these people may never have been born, etc, but what use is it to me if I have to invent a load of names and use those instead ? Far better to posit slightly different, but essentially similar, ATL versions of people and use those. Where there might be problems (due for example to place of birth) one can always posit an alternative personal past - like I did with Patton, having his parents settle in the SW Territories instead of, as in OTL, California since that in this timeline is in a different country

OTL the 1920s and 1930s saw unlikely-seeming little wars break out in strange places around the world, such as between Bolivia and Paraguay in the Chaco War. Here, alternate geography removes that, but I am looking at a major clash between the British Dominion of Columbia and the Republic of Fredonia over the moribund Great Plains Confederacy

For years, neither country has accepted the treaty-defined borders of the Indian state and have increasingly encroached, with sub-treaties, protectorates, etc all negotiated without reference to rival treaty powers. But the recent Fredonian-Indian War will have brought the matter into sharp dispute. No doubt, the Fredonians emerged politically victorious and may have imposed some sort of suzerainty on the Indians. Columbia would be unhappy, but at first not see this as any sort of real threat

But Fredonia will push it - send in agents, establish trading posts and forts, and when they begin to establish relations with Nations which had previously accepted Columbian protection, Columbia realises that its own position is seriously under threat.

Thus we could see, perhaps from 1929-1932 the Columbia-Fredonia War of the Plains, with the Indians in the middle as unwitting participants

The territory for this war would be inhospitable, the distances vast, the armies largely cavalry with a large percentage of Indian Volunteer Units (so termed due to US usage, but here basically allied or subject Indian Nations sending out a force with the army), plus as an important element, the aerial war

Distance, long-range staying-power, the ability to operate from rough airstrips, simple design but resilience, short take-off and landing, all would be far more important factors here than in previous conflicts, and could lead to early development of monoplane types akin to the OTL Lysander and Storch.

The Republic of Oregon would declare its neutrality and hope to benefit from it, relying on its Chinese ally and Chinese connections to prevent any danger of being caught in the middle.

Dictator Maverick's term is coming to an end as tensions rise, but before the war breaks out. His successor would be the one to have to deal with such issues. I am thinking that General Garcia, with his decade or so heading Counter-Espionage, could be the ideal person for this, and allow an entirely made-up character to enter office (well, Semmes and Maverick were made-up in person, but descended from known historical figures, whilst Garcia is made-up descended from unknown and thus made-up figures)

Fredonia of course has nerve agents, but in open territory they will prove to be of much more limited use than against tightly packed enemy lines as with an entrenched fortified position.

The Trans-Mississippi Federation of course exists as a bulwark between the USA and Fredonia in East-West terms, and is basically a Fredonian vassal. Its neutrality would ensure that whatever Dictator Garcia decides, the USA can only intervene by directly passing through the Dakota Hills into the Confederacy, or by attacking Fredonia through Tejas and New Mexico (something that Garcia, from his San Diego days, knows is not a happy proposition)

However, the first does allow the possibility of the USA supplying Columbia rather than overtly intervening in the war. Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota (the latter with their rather different ATL borders) have direct access to the disputed territory, whilst they also have Civilised Tribes in the latter two in great number. These would have contact with and relations with the Confederacy, and could be used as a conduit for US aid.

Garcia will probably decide that US interests require an attempt to prevent further Fredonian expansion, and thus aid Columbia and their Indian allies against Fredonia and theirs. This support falls short of war, but some of the Northern Civilised Nations probably raise true Volunteer Regiments to go to the aid of the Great Plains Confederacy, and thus one could see Winnebago units, for example, fighting alongside Columbian and Arapahoe units

No doubt Fredonian cries of complaint rise up from Topeka, but Fredonia doesn't want war with the USA, there being no gain by bringing it about, since it simply adds to the number of their enemies. Thus both Washington and Topeka are engaged in a cat-and-mouse game where neither wants war, but both want to maximise their position

It is difficult territory to bring about a Columbian victory in, and what seems most likely is an eventual treaty between Columbia and Fredonia effectively partitioning the Great Plains Confederacy between them. Columbia may well grant its newly-absorbed allies Civilised Tribe status (as it did with the Mandan, Hidatsa and Assinboin) and thus create autonomous enclaves in its new formalised territory. Fredonia tends to operate differently, bringing about something similar but less formalised, mainly due to the more extended and loose nature of Fredonian provincial government in the first place.

Either way, the Great Plains Confederacy finally loses its increasingly theoretical position on the map, and a straight dividing line between Columbia and Fredonia is drawn

Dictator Garcia will probably be happy with this, since Fredonia failed to win over those Nations previously under Columbian auspices, and the dividing line of territory reflects more or less the ante-bellum dividing line of influence


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
My apologies for not commenting...RL has sucked my time of late.

In broad strokes, TTL is quite interesting: Russia bestrides Eurasia like a purported Colossus, but not it seems, to the exclusion of a vibrant Europe. France has become the world's most stable Republic--terrific. China has managed to industrialize early and retain a strong system of domination over its tradition vassals. And North America is thoroughly balkanized.

A few questions:

1) What is comparable standard of living / total economic output of France, Germany, Austria (still around, right?), the USA, NEC, UPC (Canada), Fredonia (and its satellites), Latin America, China and colonial India? It seems like China still lags Europe and America in respect of the first: how diffuse is this wealth? Is it concentrated on the coast leaving the interior Han provinces poor (typical pattern of most Chinese periods of prosperity)? It seems like the NEC is probably the most advanced in the New World, but I do wonder at the relative levels of Fredonia and the USA. Just in terms of population, if Fredonia can holds its own against the USA, it has a significantly larger population than that section of the US did OTL (even when considering TTL's lesser extent--perhaps slavery plays a role here, but I suspect differing patterns of immigration do as well; it seems like there are more Asians in Fredonia than the USA permitted this early on).

2) You've mentioned that Fredonia is rather oligarchic: how so? Heavy corporate influence or something more formal? Is it a federal system or more unitary in nature? It would seem like there should be some internal tensions here.

3) How do the various nations of North America share water rights? Seemingly silly, I know, but the USA has done some rather interesting things that in a divided North America would be different: for one, a fair amount of water is pumped from the western side of the Continental Divide in Colorado, to the easten side, in order to better farming land in Kansas. Fredonia may encompass the requisite territory to accomplish this, but OTL this is why the Colorado River (the Grand Canyon one) currently rarely reaches the Gulf of California, which would be in the US Southwest. Similarly, has the USA done anything to control flooding in the Tennessee Valley or to combat hurricanes along the Gulf Coast? Daming will be of particular import in Tejas (and wherever OTL Oklahoma is): today, there are several hundred lakes in Texas; only 1 of them is natural, the rest being man-made and in may cases the product of New Deal infrastructure programs. For smaller countries, such projects might be more important but also harder to mount.

4) What exactly are the powers of the Dictator of the US? It doesn't seem to be all that tyrannical a position: they are usually appointed by Congress, they keep to set terms of office. They appear to govern alongside a Congress of sorts. I would imagine that they probably have much, much larger powers vis-a-vis budgets, war, and peace than POTUS does, with Congress being more of an advisory body, rubber-stamping things. However, this isn't entirely a totalitarian autocracy, with the Dictator kept in place by force of arms. Is there a Bill of Rights of any kind? Additionally, what powers does the Dictator's Federal Gov't have vis-a-vis the states? Do they retain governors with free-er elections or has the Dictator co-opted much of local government (much like, say, Putin did vis-a-vis the regions, oblasts, and republics of the Russian Federation)?

Thanks for finding the time to reply :)

As always I'll address these in detail when I've had time to take them home and think about them :)

Good questions regarding the Dictatorship - it views itself as a legitimate and logical successor to the Revolution, to Washington, Burr, Clay and co. As such it sees itself as simplifying things so that the country is better run

Elections still happen, but the power invested in the result is less. Governors are elected, but the candidates tend to be appointed - IIRC some Communist countries used to do this, allow the people to vote on a slate of appointed candidates.

Its less rigid with Congress, but its powers have been reduced as you note. In addition, the position of Vice-President was removed by the first Dictator, and not reintroduced, even under the democratic regimes of Johnson and Semmes. The position of President of the Senate thus fluctuated in power, since it was now held by the Pro Tem. Under the Dictatorship, the power of the President, basically chosen from amongst the loyal senators, is to keep the senate in order and get government legislation passed. Its thus an important administrative post, but no longer the political powerhouse it was

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Is Columbia Canada, or something else? I've always been confused with the state of North American borders. Because didn't Britain gain the region of Pugent Sound in the Anglo-American War, but we have a Republic of Oregon... I'm just a litle confused here!
 
Is Columbia Canada, or something else? I've always been confused with the state of North American borders. Because didn't Britain gain the region of Pugent Sound in the Anglo-American War, but we have a Republic of Oregon... I'm just a litle confused here!

Oregon was part of the USA but after the civil war sundered the Plains from US influence ended up as a pretty weak and poor republic on its own

Columbia is basically that part of OTL Canada that was not part of 'The Canadas' - Rupertsland writ large, so Western and Central Canada, now reaching down over what is the Northern USA of OTL East of the Rockies

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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