The Time of Eagles

fhaessg said:
Hi,

Still a very interesting TL.

However, I find I must point out a development I find a bit unlikely.

Specifically, the depth of the fall of France and Uk, given what really how I understand the 1845 war and the lack of real devastation on these countries ( as opposed to what a real war on the country territories would have brought ).

That some people think that the countries have gone down, with respect to their pre-war status is extremely likely. So is a temporary decrease in influance and even industry; However, I find a real long term decrease in industry and capital too implausible ( especially as they seemes to have invested quite heavily in other country industrialisation - e.g. France in the USA -, which should give them quite a financial clout, as the war didn't let them sell these interests - as happened to Uk in WWI -). I think France and Uk should have gone up right now and repassed USA and Germany, given the TL.

Also, I find Blanqui quite unlikely as french president, unless the character is very different from OTL, with a different philosophy and willing to work with the system. OTL, he was an anarchist and couldn't get much of a following, as he was too hardcore and unwilling to compromise, AFAIK. I think Louis Blanc could make a better character for this episode.

OK, I've been trying to work out how to answer this for several days now, and will try this way

Britain - social reform costs money (for schools, for inspectors, for public works etc). The SDF can't confiscate landowners' property without initiating a civil war, thus the only route to go down is that of increased taxes, and these would be a combination of income tax, capital gains tax and slaes taxes.

Their AIM isn't to stifle industry, indeed keeping as many people in employment as possible is important to them. But for too long the industrial magnates have gotten away with exploiting the working class - indeed, even the Radicals of the 1830s and 1840s didn't want to interfere with market forces by imposing the factory acts of OTL (this in fact WAS their OTL position, and IIRC it was people like Peel and Disraeli who brought about these reforms in OTL).

The revolutions that brought an end to the war shifted power in two ways - in one it took it from the industrialists and merchants and gave it to bodies of workers in the cities, and in the other it melded these together to form a national party (albeit a Federation of urban workers' bodies) and this SDF took power into the House of Commons, away on the one hand from the Lords, and on the other hand from the Monarch.

Universal suffrage has sustained the SDF in power, but all long-term administrations begin to be a drain upon themselves, rehashing old ideas and getting stuck in ideological ruts. Continuing to advance social agendas has meant on the one hand a falling away of innovative industrial invention (hence the Cayley interest selling their advanced glider designs to Americans because of lack of capital investment in the UK) and on the other stagnation of the industrial base

Trade still prospers on the high seas, but trade is not DIRECTLY related to industrial strength - one need only to look at places like Ragusa which had a healthy seaborne trade, but hardly was an industrial metropolis. It CAN be related, and it CAN be a feedback loop, but it can also become divorced from it. The ships needed to perform seaborne trade are different from those needed to be the backbone of a modern navy - sure, there is going to be a lot of cross-over in naval transports, or oceanic cruisers, but in terms of major warships there is significant divergence between mercantile and warrior craft that the transference of ideas has become divorced.

Thus, whilst the SDF maintains armed forces and their logistical support, partly out of a need to retain the industries and partly because their 'Revolution' needs a first line of defence, the Royal Navy is still building first-generation ironclad frigates, excellent examples of this design no doubt, and ships that would have swept the seas in the early 1850s, but ships which are now outclassed by the more radical designs coming out of the German Empire or the USA

Colonially, within the empire, the SDF sees no purpose in aggrandisement. A lot of past action was motivated by merchants, and industrialists seeking new markets, but these are exactly the classes that the party is in direct opposition to back home. The state is not going to subsidise commercial expeditions, or fight wars for the benefit of industrial magnates. Its not looked at as abandoning markets, since its obvious that you can trade with independent powers, instead its seen as shifting the dynamics away from a capitalist urge to conquer and control those markets

This latter explains the situation in India. A lot of the colonial administrators would have an opposing view to the SDF government in London - ie they would only see increased imperial weakness, and bemoan it. At the same time, they would not understand it and would continue in their old thought patterns - to them, chaos within the Mughal Empire would be an invitation to intervene. But London sees it as not being their business to intervene. Hence the fiasco of too-small British forces trying to perform a role that they are no longer intended to.


France - The situation is similar and ties in exactly to why Blanqui is the perfect person to be leading the country by 1861.

The paralysis of government that arose at the end of the war saw the cities basically take self-government to themselves, whilst the national government, at first under Thiers, and then an attempted grand coalition under Thiers and Guizot, found itself incapable of remedying the situation. They could continue to direct national policy, but all the time the bounds of what that national policy could consist of were constricting.

Ferdinand of Orleans attempted to bridge the gap between the poltical elite in Paris and the revolutionary councils in the cities. He was partially successful - the example I gave was of the workers of Marseilles wanting to see their principles embodied within France, rather than trying to create a socialist paradise in miniature within their city. Ferdinand was able to bring the revolution BACK into the political mainstream, but he was not able to direct it. For a while he could control it, but once seated in power he could no longer dominate it.

He was a one-term president, seen very much as a bridge between past and future. In this new historiography the revolutionary ideals of the 1790 had become embodied in Carnot's ministry and then, dependent on one's point of view, begun an inevitable slide back towards the Ancien Regime at some point, variously placed within the reigns of subsequent presidents, but never of course placed any later than Thiers. Chateaubriand was often seen as the turning point, his attempt to bring reconciliation and merge old and new now being portrayed as the point at which the Revolution was abandoned and the political class lost its link to the ordinary man. As always with historiography it parcelled things up nicely, and ignored a whole swathe of data, but it reflected the current mindset

Blanqui on the other hand emerged OUT of the new revolution. He was one of its urban leaders, and regardless of anarchic tendencies, one cannot lead a movement without having some belief in structure. Orleans will have needed to have brought such men into government, and as seen when the first Labour ministers appeared in the coalitions in Britain from OTL 1914, they have to compromise partly in order to gain more.

Blanqui's winning of the 1861 election gives him a mandate to finish the Revolution his way, but again France has similar problems to Britain with its overseas empire, simply put that the new Revolution never took foot out there. Thus, French forces in India continue to act in a way that Paris would see as anachronistic, but which would be somewhat less arrogant in assumption than Britain. France has retained its position as second power in India, so its leaders out there have that mindset - not to rush straight in as if it were God's will, but to plan carefully. Thus, probably rather to their own surprise, they see the Mughals beat off the British, and then fall back before themselves. If they DO carry Delhi, what then ?

Again, I don't see that revolutionary social reform and a refocusing on how one approaches world affairs means that I am under-estimating France's capital or its economic position. The state needs money, so its not going to close industries or restrict investment, but it is going to tax the proceeds highly. This in itself could explain why there is growing French investment in North America - subsidiary companies registered in New York wouldn't have to pay the same level of tax, and if their major shareholders relocate to places like Haiti, or Martinique then it would take some major efort on behalf of Paris to bring them to heel

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Jose Pablo Martinez del Rio was not a happy man. On the desk in front of him were four piles of papers, reports in the main, and each pile represented a world of problems for his Mexican government. Of course, they were all somehow bound up with each other - no problem was ever independent of a fellow where Mexico was concerned !

In no particular order, the piles represented: -1- that damned rebel Benito Juarez, with his revolutionary shit imported wholesale from Europe, -2- the separatists in Yucatan and Guatemala, -3- the USA to the North, and its moves towards making California Territory, and possibly even Monterrey Territory, into fully-fledged states, and -4- the whole issue of the United Provinces of Central America to the South

Martinez del Rio's conservative government could not simply sit back and watch as a new enemy birthed itself on its Southern borders. Better to have decrepit Spain, where the garrisons in San Salvador or Tegucigalpa were distant offshoots of the ViceRoyalty based in Bogata, Granada. But now that the whole of Central America from the isthmus of Panama up to the Mexican border was up in arms, and under San Jose's control...well, he did not trust that whatever they had set in motion would halt there, that was for sure

But what to do ! The war against the USA, the stupid, devastating war that had seen Mexican arms thrown back across the border and the country plunged into chaos, was less than a decade gone, and Washington made no secret of the numbers of warships and soldiers it sent to the cities of the South-West Territories to Mexico's immediate North. Worse, Mexican spies had confirmed that a fleet had put into Tampico and then sailed South...to where ?! It hadn't appeared off Vera Cruz, thank the Blessed Virgin, but if the logical conclusion was that it had been sent to help the UPCA confirm its independence, why did not Mexican agents in any of their cities report seeing it ? Could it have gone to attack Granada directly ? But why would America want to escalate to full war what could easily be a contained conflict ? But where else was there...?

The position of Yucatan and, especially, of Guatemala was made especially difficult by the emergence of the UPCA as an independent nation. Its very name, the UNITED PROVINCES, seemed to indicate true federalism, an undercurrent in Mexican politics that repeated presidents had had to put down by force of arms to ensure the power of the central executive. But the promise of federalism was having a strong effect on the simmering revolution beneath the surface of Mexico's two most volatile provinces, indeed reports from Guatemala City indicated that over a hundred people had been arrested for sedition for claiming that Mexico only held the province by conquest, and that by right Guatemala was a Central American state. They seemed to have forgotten that it had only been Mexican arns which had prevented them from being subject to Spanish vengeance at the close of the war !

And Juarez ? The snake was somewhere in the Northern mountains, but he could not spare a major expedition to smoke him out when international affairs threatened to need the army.

"Your Excellency ?"
He looked up. General Agustin Iturbide entered, his face the picture of concern,
"I think we may have a problem" he went on

President Martinez del Rio sighed and waved the fifty-seven year old army commander to a seat,
"We have many problems, General" he said, "Is this a new one or merely an enlargement of one of these ?"
He indicated the piles of reports before him
Iturbide frowned, then shrugged,
"I know not, Your Excellency, but an American army is reported landed at Limon. By all accounts it marches on San Jose."

The president was momentarily speechless, then he rose to his feet,
"Reported ? Accounts ? I want absolute confirmation ! Do you have any idea what they are up to ?"
"No, Your Excellency"
"Find out !" Martinez del Rio almost shouted this command, "I suppose their thrice-damned fleet landed this force ?"
"Yes, although our agent reports that the admiral was not present"
"I see...no, what ? What is this ?"
"Our agent is very knowledgeable on US naval standards. He is adamant that no admiral's flag was present, despite the vast number of ships involved. The invasion was led by a Commodore."
"Bah !", the president was tempted to wave it away, "It is well-known that the Americans use Commodore as a rank equivalent to Rear or even Vice Admiral."
"But an admiral's ship WAS sighted departing from Tampico" Iturbide reminded him

Martinez del Rio paused then nodded,
"You are right, general. It IS an anomaly. I leave it to you to find out what it means"
"Of course, Your Excellency"
"And get me absolute confirmation of these reports !"
"At once, Your Excellency"

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Randy Mann crept across the barren rock, and reached the crest. He cradled his repeating rifle and looked down into the depression, waiting whilst his sun-bleached eyes took their measure of the scene before him. At last he saw them, a half dozen Spaniards sitting in the shadow of a large rock, smoking and seemingly with all the time in the world. He carefully drew a bead on the man with the largest hat, either their commander or the biggest show-off of the lot. Uttering a silent Millerite prayer, he pulled the trigger. The Spaniard toppled forward

Two miles to the West, Colonel George Donner ordered the main force of his expedition to descend through the dried out gully and press on behind the enemy. Mann would either keep them occupied, or be killed - either way, it was a diversion

As they progressed, Donner thought over the year behind him, the disasters, the near disasters and the bad luck that had plagued them from the Great Salt Lake Westwards. The Indians for a start had not been as minor a force as the idiots back in Topeka had told them - the Diggers especially had been cunning bastards, never ones for full-pitched batle, always ones to pick off their wounded, or the isolated rear. Then there were more Spaniards than anyone had believed possible and on top of that as they had neared the Golden Paradise they had been buried in snow, and icebound for weeks. He had barely a tenth of his original force alive by Spring 1864, and that was a miracle...or perhaps the Devil's work, for he knew that many of his men had resorted to cannibalism, trapped seemingly without hope in their frozen winter camps

But matter it not, now. Summer was upon them, and though Topeka may well have given them up for dead, he was advancing. Admittedly, the shambling body of men, barefoot and ragged, that traipsed the track of the river was hardly an ideal image of an army. But it was what there was. And he was no quitter, he would lead them on until he, or all of them, dropped dead

And the Millerites amongst them still believed that he was leading them to the Land of Golden Paradise. It was an added advantage, having such fanatics with him, and over the harshness of the Winter, Donner had learned not to look this particular gift horse in the mouth.

It had even affected him. Somehow, somewhere deep inside of him, there was now the absolute conviction that they would prevail. Relative strength be damned, horses, arms, and men were as naught to Faith. Maybe he was now a Millerite himself. He did not know how he would tell.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
John B Magruder sat stiff and immobile at his desk. The newspapers spread before him confirmed what his own aides had told him before Midnight, that he had lost the nomination. The American Party would nominate Robert E Lee for president on the morrow, with Braxton Bragg likely to be on the ticket as Vice President. Magruder would be lucky to even have A post in Lee's cabinet, given the intense rivalry between them. He would not have minded, if he could have gone back to the army, but Lee was likely to veto that too

Magruder stared at the map he had ordered pinned to the wall opposite the desk, the more easily to visualise distances and relatively geography, but as he had snapped to the president a few months earlier, so much was blank, so much was missing data. Fredonia was a nasty smear, an anachronism that Washington did not seem to have the power to bring into the present, whilst the Indians of the Great Plains were a problem that he knew would be solved, given time. California was another matter entirely, and he reckoned the chances roughly even odds that Spain would hang on to it, come Hell and high water

He laughed inside. Perhaps both of those had already come. The sinking of the Santissima Trinidad by Farragut's President had excited Madrid to declare the USA to be "in opposition", whilst debate raged in the assembly about the insanity of declaring all-out war. Farragut for his part had been ordered home to face a board of enquiry and had put into New Orleans, to be taken by train to Washington. But the enquiry remained in abeyance, nobody wanting to deal themselves a bad card on the eve of the elections. And the President was undergoing a refit, the opportunity seeming too good to be missed

He moved slowly and looked at the gun before him upon the desk. It was simple really. Manifest Destiny was not about to be defeated. But if he could not be a part of it...

He slowly picked up the weapon...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
"Ten thousand pesos" General Prim placed the bag upon the table, close to himself, sufficiently far away from the Americano.
William Walker smiled and raised his glass of rum,
"It is good to do business with you, general"
"Your pleasure, I am sure" Prime glowered, "I still do not understand why you do this ?"
"Ten thousand pesos"

Prime stared him out, then shook his head,
"Why YOU do it" he repeated, altering the emphasis, "You !"
Walker smiled thinly,
"I do not seem to be a favourite among the independalists this time" he said, then looked at the money, "and..."
"And ?" Prim pressed
"And Life taught me a lesson"
"Did it ?", Prim lit up a long cigarillo and breathed smoke into the Americano's face
"Oh yes" Walker said, "Everything changes"

There was silence a while whilst the Spanish general smoked his cigarillo, then he spat the butt upon the table and looked closely at the Americano,
"A woman ?" he asked, a twinkle reaching his eye, "There is always a woman"
"Sometimes it requires one to reveal the foolishness of life"
"My wife is good at that" Prim tried for levity, then gave it up, "You will hold to your side of the bargain ?"
Walked gathered in the ten thousand pesos,
"My information is correct, and they hardly suspect that I will make this deal"
"I still do not understand why you do" Prim admitted, then rose to his feet, "But I accept that you do. You need not doubt that we will act with force"
"I do not doubt", Walker hugged the bag of money and watched the Spaniard go.
How strange was the world...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Prince Regent Frederick climbed down from the Warsaw Express and amidst a veritable phalanx of Guards allowed himself to be escorted swiftly to a waiting carriage which sped off towards the palace as soon as he was aboard. He tried to compose his thoughts as they raced through the streets of Berlin, but it was a maelstrom inside his head.

Fellow monarch, and his own father-in-law Tsar Aleksandr II, had attended the meeting in person, a sign of how serious the two powers considered the German Crisis to be. Aleksandr had even been accompanied by his second son, 19 year old Grand Duke Aleksandr, learning what it meant to be a figure on the international stage. Of course, the youth had been merely sugar icing, there to back up his father's dignity, to say that the Tsar of all the Russias could easily risk bringing a son into Prussian Poland, so secure was his dynasty.

Frederick thanked his lucky stars, and General Roon, that no untoward events had occurred in Warsaw during the course of the meeting. So, maybe three hundred Polish agitators were now behind bars, but they wished to be martyrs for their cause, and the Prince Regent had no problem in accommodating that wish. Tsar Aleksandr II hadmade it clear how happy he was with Prussian hospitality and everything had gone according to the best hopes and plans that Frederick had devised

But as his carriage rushed through the streets of Berlin, he was aware of the tension on the streets, the Guard Cavalry at every corner keeping watch, as he rushed into the palace courtyard, and bounded up the steps into the arms of his wife. Grand Duchess Alexandra Alexandraevna as was, Princess Alexandra was radiant in her dark, determined way. Twleve years his junior, she was a perfect match for he could hardly have married before completing his army training, and thereafter politics had got so complicated within Prussia.

Together they hurried inside, through ornate halls, and up the staircase leading to the floor upon which his father, King Wilhelm ever threatened to breathe his last, but never quite did. Outside, they met with General von Moltke and his staff, the Army Commandant of Berlin as taciturn as ever. They entered the regal presence, and bowed deeply to the half-somnulent figure in the bed

King Wilhelm I blinked and raised himself painfully to a sitting position,
"How did it go ?" he rasped
"Well, father", Frederick knelt by his side, "We are agreed on a common position"
"Does it mean war ?" Wilhelm ground out
"It is too early to tell" his son replied
Wilhelm fell back upon the cushioning of his pillow and put a hand to his eyes,
"It does mean war, I can feel it. Is Prussia ready for war ?"

There was a silence, Prince Regent Frederick refusing to answer the question. Then General von Moltke spoke up,
"We are ready, Your Majesty" he whispered, "We are more than ready, we are eager for war"
"God help us" Wilhelm whispered

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
"Gentlemen" Theodosia Burr waved the three men into the seats she had prepared for them
They sat, and wondered whether to smoke or not. She sensed their unease,
"Please light up, gentlemen. This is not a Puritan household"
With relief they pulld out their pouches and stuffed their pipes. When they were done, one of them was ready to speak,
"Your father was a great man in his way" former president Charles Stewart spoke, "It is always noteworthy how time changes one's perceptions"

"Exactly !" Theodosia agreed, eyeing the eighty-six year-old with near reverence, "And history will say the same thing about you !"
The oldest living ex-president smiled at her. In age they were so similar it hardly mattered, she born in 1783, he in 1778. Most would have considered them well past their effective age, but both were heirs to powerful traditions, and both represented these parties at that evening's meeting.

"Who do we represent ?" Andrew Curtin had every reason to be apprehensive. As Governor of Pennsylvania he was on the very frontier of any conflict between the federal government and New England. Stewart was a Pennsylvania man, Burr a woman with New York origins. The fifth of those present decided to speak,
"My father could have been a great man", he said, "But France was not ready. They murdered my uncle, and my father came here, well to Maryland, where he met my mother"
"You can hardly regret that" Curtin pointed out, "Had he not done so, you would not exist"

Jerome Patterson Bonarparte II nodded and thought on the matter for a moment,
"Maryland stands as much in the line of fire as Penn state", he said, "If it comes down to slavery we will all go to Hell"
"If it comes to slavery" Charles Stewart said, "Washington allows it in the federal district"
"That will have no bearing on what New England decides" Theodosia Burr pointed out, "You should hear the debates in the raw..."
"I have" Bonaparte admitted, "My second son was born in Massachusetts during an excursion there. We oft-times go back"
"Did you hear any of the debates in Boston ?" Theodosia Burr asked
"No" Bonaparte shrugged, "What is to be done ?"

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
A Bonaparte :D brilliant :D

Still not 100% sure on your style personally but i like how this is going, so keep it up :)
 
A Bonaparte :D brilliant :D

Still not 100% sure on your style personally but i like how this is going, so keep it up :)

Well, nor me but I'm finding it hard to write lengthy pieces so have resorted to a series of smaller ones that illustrate the timeline rather than simply writing out this happened, and that happened, etc

As for lack of action, I feel that, but at the same time its more difficult for me to write action sequences set in this period because the detail would defeat me.

Thanks for reading and commenting. I think I could have plans for J P Boney :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The Senate was in uproar. The presidential election was looming ever nearer, but the accellerating situation in the Caribbean demanded attention, and they were meeting to discuss vital matters just at that moment when nobody had that kind of subject on their mind.
President of the Senate, Vice President Franklin Pierce was a tired and ill man. He leant upon a stick as he spoke, many of those at the back having to strain to hear what he had to say,
"The security of this great country depends upon our being always in a position to respond..." he began

Illinois Senator, Abraham Lincoln, was hardly listening. He knew what he would say, regardless of what the American Party tried to argue, and he pretty much knew what they would say anyway. The only plays open to them were obvious ones - unless they wanted to create a bogeyman out of Germany, he laughed to himself ! War in Europea, again, but it could have no bearing to events this side of the Atlantic, and as such would not be mentioned. It would have been amusing if it had, though, he thought

Theodore Roosevelt, Whig senator for New York, looked at the Progressive Party's presidential candidate and gave a snort. Did the bastard think that he had the presidency sewn up, was that why he smirked to himself ? The arrogant son of a bitch ! Of course, Magruder's death "whilst cleaning his gun" had shocked them all, but in a paradoxical sense it had made the Amerrican Party stronger in the coming polls. It sure as Heckfire hadn't made incumbent President Kearny any stronger, nor yet his ailing Vice President rasping away there on the floor before them, but Robert E Lee was free of his internal rival, and Magruder's men were falling into line behind his fellow Virginian. No, nothing was certain for December

Lincoln was on his feet,
"I do not recognise this 'dire need' that is spoken of", he began
Roosevelt thought it one of the Illinois senator's less-inspired speeches, but could understand that. There were many tensions afoot, not least the need for Lincoln to try to balance supporting his country with not supporting its government.

The 33 year-old Roosevelt rose to speak, a calm descending upon him as he did so,
"The state of New York does not recognise the validity of this war", he said, then continued to speak despite the deafening cacophony of shouting that greeted this statement, "I am empowered by my state legislature, the very people who sent me here to Washington, to vote down this bill. No war appropriations ! No to an illegal war !"

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I admit this has got rather dull, trying to tell the timeline through the characters. In fact, I am guessing from the general lack of response that the whole idea is rather dull, so I will abandon this approach and try to move it all on.

What I was trying to do here was to generate several main areas of interest

-A- India, where the Mughals have staged a recovery but the French in alliance with the Sikhs are pressing an attack, with Britain having been forced out of it

-B- Central America, where the provinces have revolted in breaking away from Spain, formed a federation but are being assailed on all sides - by Mexican ambitions in the North, by Spanish revanchism from Granada in the South and potentially trans-Atlantically, and by American strategic manoevres aimed at securing Miskitia and thus a base to fight off whoever they perceive as a threat

-C- The Schleswig-Holstein situation - this has already escalated into a war between the Frankfurt-based German Empire and Denmark, with the S-H ducal line guaranteed membership of the empire in victory. Prussia, backed by Russia, is not happy at this, nor is Sweden and a more general war is threatening

-D- The 1864 US Presidential election, and accompanying senate, house and gubernatorial elections. To cut a long story short, this sees and results in the following :-

- Sec of State Robert E Lee won the American Party nomination over Sec of War J B Magruder who then shot himself. Lee's main rival nationally is Illinois senator Abraham Lincoln of the broad church Progressive Party. However, in New England and scattered other strongholds the Whigs are running a candidate of their own, whilst in the Old South the remnant Democrats nominate Jefferson Davis again, reckoning that a known name is better than a change if nobody recognises the changed name or remembers who the party is with it

- Lee wins the election, largely due to the main opposition vote being split between the Progressives and the Whigs. That the Whigs win New England is down mainly to internal politics that have been playing out in the Senate and House on the eve of the election - the votes on war appropriations, and the New England bloc pressing the case at a federal level for the votes of their state legislatures (which after all select and send the state senators in most cases)

- Over Winter 1864-5 as the Kearny administration prepares to hand over to Lee's, events start to come to a head. Kearny and Worth, founders of the American Party were New England men, whereas Lee is a Virginian, as was his late rival Magruder. Magruder's suicide has opened the way, paradoxically, for his supporters to work with Lee's and the result is something of a Virginian coup at cabinet level. Vice President Braxton Bragg is a N Carolina man, and the impression in New England is that the ruling party has become very much an anti-New England party

- Due to Walker's treachury in Panama, the Spanish are able to open 1865 by recapturing that province and marching on Costa Rica. The US expeditionary force is still in San Jose, occupying the federal capital whilst the provinces get round to sending delegates to sign a treaty which will give the USA sovereignty over Miskitia, with the Miskit incorporated into the USA as a Civilised Tribe. The Spanish advance threatens the US position, and the UPCA defence is hindered by the tense situation with American forces in the capital. At the same time, the US naval force is feeling the pinch as war appropriations do not approach the required level, and the US treasury is entering crisis

- New England legislatures are passing more and more resolutions of an abolitionist and anti-war nature, many who are not pacifists wondering why they are having to pay for a war waged by the American Party seemingly against a natural ally of the USA. Arguments from Washington about the security of the SW Territories only serves to fuel New England anger, since the two Tejas states entered the Union as slave states, and there is general suspicion that South California, whose application for statehood is before Congress, will be allowed also to enter as a slave state

- President Robert E Lee's administration takes office with these mounting crises, and takes a hard legal line against New England state resolutions declaring them void. At the same time, he makes it clear that the war appropriations will be raised one way or another.

- News reaches the USA that Limon has fallen to a Spanish assault, the fall of the port thus cutting the US army in San Jose off from its supply route. With serious logistical weaknesses, newly-promoted Admiral R Semmes is unable to immediately counter-attack from his base in the islands, and can only harry the Spanish flank, which achieves little as the Spanish are now marching inland

- - -

The detail of what comes next defeats me, but basically it sees New England, secession, the splitting of the Progressive Party between those who support New England and those who support the Union, an alliance between the American Party and the Democrats, and civil war erupt across the frontier states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland etc as well as in New England bastions such as Missouri

The civil war is complicated immediately by the position of Fredonia, and by the simmering war between Fredonia and the Spanish ViceRoyalty of California, as well of course by the conflict in Central America

- - -

I will note that throughout the three separate threads of this timeline I have not necessarily gone for what is most probable, but for what is possible. After all, what is most probable is OTL since it has a probability of 1...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

REPOST USA 1853 MAP
note that E and W Tejas are not shown on it

US 1853b.jpg
 
The American Civil War 1865+

OK, well this is a fuck-up but let's make the most of it, elsewise I'd have to find a new thing to be writing, and maybe I should anyway. I intended this civil war, but having jumped the build-up I now have difficulty with the practicalities

I don't know who the Whig presidential candidate in 1864 was, but whoever it was would also be the president of the breakway Republic of New England (or do people think it would have another name ?)

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Maryland look likely to be the borderland areas where one party favours secession, the other adherence to the Union and where tensions result in the outbreak of fighting

New York is probably the capital of the breakaway state

- - -

Anal.

New England has less overall percentage of industry and commerce within the USA than OTL, but how exactly this works out is not clear

Virginia and Georgia, as politico-economic drivers of Westward expansion in the various Spanish-American wars developed their own industrial cores

In addition, the South coast ended up with numerous well-stocked naval arsenals, due to its more gradual acquisition

Railways linked these, with in addition army arsenals and railheads adding in additional small cities throughout the South, islands of industrialisation in their states, but there none-the-less

The Trans-Mississippi states saw New England dominance in Missouri, shared dominance in Franklin and Southern dominance in Arkansas. Whilst decades have now passed, and the railways have expanded, with French investment feeding their spread Westward into Fredonia, this division probably still holds

New Orleans, West and East Tejas probably see some substantial New England influence, but not enough to carry them

The SW Territories (and N Tejas amongst these) probably are far more 'Federal'

Southern California is also probably 'Federal', bastion of the American Party with its Governor, Braxton Bragg now Vice President in Lee's administration

Thus, the main focus of the war would be the New England barrier states, the secondary focus the Trans-Mississippi states, and the tertiary focus where large numbers of New England military personnel find themselves suddenly amidst their enemies

Unlike OTL there has not been the period of peaceful separation that in OTL pre-dated the civil war. Thus, whilst those in the NE, Old South, Old West and even the Old North-West knew what was on the cards and could make decisions accordingly, further afield the news will hit as a shock

Nowhere will this be felt more than in the Central American theatre. Admiral Raph Semmes fleet in the islands East of Miskitia, and his army inland in Costa Rica will probably be up to 50-50 New Englanders and others. And whilst not all New Englanders will support secession, most will. By the time news reaches them war will already have broken out, or at the very least be inevitable, so any sundering of personnel on factional grounds is likely to be immediately accompanied by internicine hostilities

- - -

President Clarke and Secretary of State Bickley of the Republic of Fredonia are going to have to deal with this sudden stark new crisis on their flank. Already committed to undeclared war in California, Topeka is going to have to decide what to do, what position to take in the East

Clarke and Bickley are dedicated to the dream of a Fredonia including California, an independent republic which has its own destiny. Bickley is very taken with Millerism, and has devised a quasi-religious quasi-mythological symbiosis whose synergy reflects Fredonia's independent heart

(streuth, was that sentence difficult !)

Whilst there are of course many immigrants from the USA who expect and intend eventually that Fredonia will become a part of the US, most second-generation Fredonians are willing to give Clarke/Bickley a chance, whilst a substantial minority fled the USA to escape their past (and their past crimes) and begin anew in Fredonia, and don't want, indeed cannot countenance, a return

Thus, Fredonia's position will most probably be to support the secession of New England. The Missouri and Franklin border states will already be pro-New England (in a sort of paradoxical fashion) with Arkansas in turmoil. The USA can be expected to be unable to find any forces to spare against Fredonia.

With all this, the key will come down to what New Englanders or New Englandites in Missouri and Franklin actually want to do - they can hardly form an integral part of the Republic of New England, but nor would they want to become part of Fredonia. One assumes they would look to create ANOTHER independent nation on the N American continent, and in so doing exercise control over some of NW Louisiana

- - -

Much of Europe's attention is being grabbed by the German War which has developed from a conflict over the future of Schleswig-Holstein to a general war against the German Empire, waged by an alliance of Denmark, Sweden and Prussia with Russian support

Austria, France and Britain watch events with consternation whilst diplomats shuttle to and fro in urgent negotiations

The SDF government in London secures undertakings from both Washington and New York as to the neutrality of Canada and Columbia, and then forgets about events in N America

- - -

Spain is the exception, and through everyone else's distraction is able to be the exception. Carlos VI uses every ounce of his political capital and residual authority to outfit a fleet and an expeditionary force. He orders the S American viceroyalties to send reinforcements and take the offensive in C America and California, and secures non-aggression pacts with Venezuela, Chile and Uruguay through full recognition and extension of commerical priveleges

General O'Donnell commands the army sent from Spain, and makes landfall in Puerto Rico whilst sail frigates are sent on ahead to establish communication with General Prim

Meanwhile, in the Far East, General Narvaez meets with the Manila Fleet and is escorted via a short visit to Hawaii, to California where he makes landfall at San Francisco

- - -

President Jose Pablo Martinez del Rio of Mexico is the final player in the drama within N America, well penultimate if onencludes his bete noire Benito Juarez, the socialist revolutionary hiding out in the Northern Mountains of Mexico

Martinez del Rio sees US moves on Miskitia as the cynical ploy they are, and sees the outbreak of civil war within the USA as being likely to paralyse the US army at San Jose

Thus, he sends Mexican armies South through rebellious Yucatan and Guatemala, into UPCA Honduras

At the same time, he informs the RNE faction of the US Embassy that he would be willing to come to an agreement with the government in New York


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Re the new attached map :-

You can see the new states of West Tejas and East Tejas on this map, plus South California which in early 1865 is petitioning for statehood

N Tejas as a territorial name seems OK, with names such as Santa Fe perhaps being considered for eventual statehood, or Apacheria, for LOLs ?

The SW Territories are not so well delineated on this map, although they are on another. I have difficulty blending maps which are at different scales etc

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

.

usa 1865.jpg
 
I for one find the current timeline quite interesting, so consider this a resounding Huzzah in favor of continuation.

I find the alt-Civil War very interesting. What about William Seward for President of the Republic of New England? He was anti-slavery enough that he may have stuck with the Whigs rather than join the Progressives.

The first thing to consider is the attitude of the border states -- PA, NJ and perhaps Ohio. I could see New Jersey pulled by very different interest groups, the north siding with New England, the south preferring whatever path Philadelphia takes or tending towards the Federals. An interesting notion could be that PA and NJ retain their ties with the US but attempt to proclaim their neutrality as Kentucky did OTL. This effectively leaves this USA without a way to get at the rebellious New Englanders (Damnyankees) -- except for the fact that this USA possess on of the world foremost navies. Hence, it is actually possible for President Lee to honor PA and NJ's "neutrality" and still attack the RNE by marshalling the Union's naval forces. A naval blockade alone will probably stifle the RNE, since if it hasn't industrialized to its OTL extent, the RNE will depend heavily on trade (and even its industry will probably need commerce for raw materials). Additionally, the RNE will have a much, much smaller coastline to blockade than the CSA did OTL and the USA has a better navy to begin with. However, this will probably make the RNE's relations with the UPC (United Province of Canada) and thus the UK very interesting. Such an issue could prove very probelmatic to the SDF because it will pit anti-slavery, humanitarians against pacifists (with the latter seeming to be far more predominant in the SDF's formation in the aftermath of the World War).

I'm tempted to think that this Civil War's outcome will depend on the degree to which the issue is slavery or pacifism. New England seems to be more concerned with aggressive Manifest Destiny than slavery per se. [Also, just to clarify did any of the Chesapeake states like Virginia give up slavery voluntarily TTL?] I could well see the same kinds of political forces that made up the OTL Copperhead Democrats (non-anti-slavery forces, mercantile interests) eventually forming a movement that will favor re-absorption into the USA. This means that this Civil War may not be as decisive a powershift in favor of the Federal government, particularly with the precedent of Pennsylvanian neutrality. This could be an interesting topic to explore, IMO.

The Western theatre is a bit more simple. If attacking the RNE is largely a naval strategy, then more army units will be free to secure these states against any potential rebellion. However, what are the political ties of American Oregon? They seem most suited to potentially breakaway successfully--particularly if the US Navy is distracted in New England, perhaps. The fate of the Great Plains Confederacy is probably telling here as is the attitude of the British state set up in British Columbia and HBC lands.

The problem of course will be how international movements -- in Central America vis-a-vis Mexico and Spain and in the North vis-a-vis Britain -- influence the conduct of the American's Civil War. The fact that Germany seems poised to be figihting its own secessionist driven conflict could well leave the rest of Europe either pulled into that conflict or with their backyards secure enough to meddle in the New World. Additionally, Lee could well have some decisive flaws as a commander in chief: OTL as a defensive commander, the urge to seek a major victory on Union soil ultimately led to Gettysburg (even though Lee's contention that a victory there would have won the war for the South may well have been correct). TTL as an offensive commander might he 1) push PA into declaring for New England? (I don't think so because of his own sympathies, but this could be a very different Lee) or 2) fail to press hard enough against RNE or 3) win the war but rend the Constitutional fabric of the Union.

Tons of things to go on.
 
Nicomacheus said:
for one find the current timeline quite interesting, so consider this a resounding Huzzah in favor of continuation.

I find the alt-Civil War very interesting. What about William Seward for President of the Republic of New England? He was anti-slavery enough that he may have stuck with the Whigs rather than join the Progressives.

The first thing to consider is the attitude of the border states -- PA, NJ and perhaps Ohio. I could see New Jersey pulled by very different interest groups, the north siding with New England, the south preferring whatever path Philadelphia takes or tending towards the Federals. An interesting notion could be that PA and NJ retain their ties with the US but attempt to proclaim their neutrality as Kentucky did OTL. This effectively leaves this USA without a way to get at the rebellious New Englanders (Damnyankees) -- except for the fact that this USA possess on of the world foremost navies. Hence, it is actually possible for President Lee to honor PA and NJ's "neutrality" and still attack the RNE by marshalling the Union's naval forces. A naval blockade alone will probably stifle the RNE, since if it hasn't industrialized to its OTL extent, the RNE will depend heavily on trade (and even its industry will probably need commerce for raw materials). Additionally, the RNE will have a much, much smaller coastline to blockade than the CSA did OTL and the USA has a better navy to begin with. However, this will probably make the RNE's relations with the UPC (United Province of Canada) and thus the UK very interesting. Such an issue could prove very probelmatic to the SDF because it will pit anti-slavery, humanitarians against pacifists (with the latter seeming to be far more predominant in the SDF's formation in the aftermath of the World War).

I'm tempted to think that this Civil War's outcome will depend on the degree to which the issue is slavery or pacifism. New England seems to be more concerned with aggressive Manifest Destiny than slavery per se. [Also, just to clarify did any of the Chesapeake states like Virginia give up slavery voluntarily TTL?] I could well see the same kinds of political forces that made up the OTL Copperhead Democrats (non-anti-slavery forces, mercantile interests) eventually forming a movement that will favor re-absorption into the USA. This means that this Civil War may not be as decisive a powershift in favor of the Federal government, particularly with the precedent of Pennsylvanian neutrality. This could be an interesting topic to explore, IMO.

The Western theatre is a bit more simple. If attacking the RNE is largely a naval strategy, then more army units will be free to secure these states against any potential rebellion. However, what are the political ties of American Oregon? They seem most suited to potentially breakaway successfully--particularly if the US Navy is distracted in New England, perhaps. The fate of the Great Plains Confederacy is probably telling here as is the attitude of the British state set up in British Columbia and HBC lands.

The problem of course will be how international movements -- in Central America vis-a-vis Mexico and Spain and in the North vis-a-vis Britain -- influence the conduct of the American's Civil War. The fact that Germany seems poised to be figihting its own secessionist driven conflict could well leave the rest of Europe either pulled into that conflict or with their backyards secure enough to meddle in the New World. Additionally, Lee could well have some decisive flaws as a commander in chief: OTL as a defensive commander, the urge to seek a major victory on Union soil ultimately led to Gettysburg (even though Lee's contention that a victory there would have won the war for the South may well have been correct). TTL as an offensive commander might he 1) push PA into declaring for New England? (I don't think so because of his own sympathies, but this could be a very different Lee) or 2) fail to press hard enough against RNE or 3) win the war but rend the Constitutional fabric of the Union.

Tons of things to go on

Thank you very much for your interest and for your comments, encouraging and useful as they are as usual.

I think I have a higher opinion of the NEC's ability to conduct a successful defence than you outline, but other than that most of what you say is about right IMVHO

Seward definitely looks like just the right person to take the position of President of the New England Confederacy, and I would imagine he would be able to draw his cabinet from three sources - -1- those members of the US Congress cleaving to an independent NEC who are able to get back home (less peaceful separation = more arrests everywhere), -2- members of state legislatures including women, with perhaps some sort of honorary position for Theodosia Burr, whose father's 1803 shenanigans would now be brought into the light and given the correct political spin for the times, -3- military commanders of NEC descent, available to the NEC but superfluous in immediate command

I see a more bloody battle across the border states, with N Ohio perhaps secceding from Ohio to form a separate NEC-allied state (W Connecticut ?) whilst New Jersey might be secured by a political coup d'etat backed by NEC arms, and Pennsylvania be the real area of conflict. I don't think a declaration of neutrality would have any more success in the ATL than did Kentucky's in OTL, but it makes sense for it to be tried. It also makes sense for it to fail

Lee's vanguard could consist of people like Jubal Early, Nathan Bedford Forrest, Jeb Stuart etc with overall command in the hands of a Longstreet or a Jackson

At the same time, Seward will have some very able commanders available to himself, tho this is an area I will have to go into in more detail, not least because half of them would be on active service elsewhere and caught up in the conflicts erupting in Oregon, the Trans-Mississippi states, the SW Territories, and the UPCA

I think your views on Lee as being unable to be a hands-off commander in chief are very good ones - he would Lincolnitis and then some. Possibly early on the commander of US army forces is some political appointment who can't hack it, and who screws things up before Longstreet (or Jackson) is brought in as a realistic wartime measure

I don't see overt war from any British direction, though it needs to be stated that Canada is fully autonomous and short of a declaration of war Ottawa has full control of its policies. I think they would back New England, and with the NEC securing the Great Lakes, trade would continue and increase much to the NEC's delight as a lifeline

I see the navy as being screwed, with a heavy New England element leading to revolts, fighting, massacres, mutinies and desertion. The US forces will act to try to arrest the leading separatists but this will be a policy fraught with danger. In best circumstances it leaves ships under-manned, in near-best circumstances it results in fighting aboard ship and the forceful arrest or massacre of New Englanders, into more negatrive (for the Union) territory it sees ships lost to fire etc, and ships where the New Englanders overpower the others and take control. These then might be sunk by their recent fellows, or might make good their escape to begin a policy of priovateering etc

I envisage a sail frigate playing this role off the Oregon coast, whilst the Caribbean Fleet is hamstrung by a mixture of the above, sees several ships seized and escaped, others sunk or lost, and the effective strength down to fifty percent. The NEC privateers may even be strong enough to seize Tristan de Cunha from Union forces and use it as a base for the duration

I see both Spain and Mexico as trying to gain advantage, and in the immediate term both being defeated by the USA, though the effort in doing so would divert large numbers of forces they would otherwise have sent against New England. The Interior Provinces in the SW Territories (ie not S Cal, or Monterrey-Tampico) would rise in a pro-Mexican rising, the lesson from the late 1850s seeming to be to try again now things are better, rather than to avoid trying at all

The USA won't feel able to abandon its position in the UPCA without allowing a full Spanish revanchism, and such an event would seem to be a nightmare on the Southern border. Thus, even whilst the NEC holds its own and the Trans-Mississippi states enter an alliance with Fredonia, the US must fight a war completely unconnected to its own internal troubles

Fredonia is playing its last card, gambling on the edge of an abyss. Both Clarke and Bickley know that if they lose then their republic goes down, but at the same time they have long recognised that if Fredonia is to survive it has to strike out on its own. Thats what the California War is all about, but there is no point winning there only to find a victorious Union sneaks in by the back door and takes them over. There is something like 30+ years of independent existence to build on, and whilst many may still see Fredonia as being the USA's proxy, there will be an increasing number for whom Fredonia has ALWAYS been, all their lives have been dedicated to the Republic, and now in middling military commands they aren't about to sell out their birthright

Add to this Bickley's mix of Manifest Destiny and Millerite religion, and Fredonia has enough commanders and followers to attempt Clarke's policies. Perhaps no doubt there will be a Fredonian Benedict Arnold, a general sent into Trans-Mississippi who attempts to sell out to the Union but who is found out and chased out, and whose forces end up under a dedicated Fredonian loyalist instead, in one of those ironic twists of Fate

Regarding political issues, slavery may not be as associated with Manifest Destiny as ex-President Calhoun said in his time (ie that the growth and expansion of the USA was synonomous with the growth and expansion of slavery) but all new states have been slave states - this basically means West and East Tejas, with the proposition for South California also. No slavery state gave it up outside of New England, though the economies of Virginia and Georgia are a lot less dependant on slavery than per OTL due to their development as economic, and latterly industrial, powerhouses. Indiana also remains a slave state, though neighbouring Illinois is at the centre of anti-slavery movements

The position of the Indian Nations may not be immediately relevant to the civil war but bears mention. The number of Civlised Tribes is probably around seventeen with additional Oregon and New Mexican ones concluded in Kearny's final term, plus also the Miskit in E Nicaragua. They have their full Homelands, guaranteed by federal writ, self-government etc, and associate status in the Union, to which they contribute Volunteer Regiments (not all that different from how it works in practice in many states). These Volunteer Regiments serve with federal forces, but there will no doubt be representations and agreements regarding the civil war - ie most won't want to serve against the NEC, and the rights of the Indian Nations would be upheld in seeing that these VRs serve out their time in the SW or the UPCA - which, ironically, adds backbone to US forces in theatres where otherwise their strength would have been worn down, and contributes ultimately, and massively, to US victory there

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
OREGON

Arrest and imprisonment of nascent NE batallion
Mutiny on sail frigate USS Potomac
Starts privateering off W coast

SW TERRITORIES

S Cal firm
Tampico/Monterrey military control
Interior Provinces - some Mexican unrest, growing taking advantage of NE secession

TRANS-MISSISSIPPI

Civil war
Fredonian intervention

COLUMBIA

Still very sparsely-settled
Indian Nations borderlands - Assinboin, Mandan, Hidatsa
Some core settlements - Vancouver etc

- - -

CANADA

Ottwawa has virtual full autonomy of action, a dominion government
Governor-General has little immediate say in policy
Close trade links to New England

- - -

Union Blockade
- NE fleet in harbours, ble to break out but only with full-pitched battles

LAKES

US fleet split but NE/N Ohio alliance results in its seizure
Hunt down US trade
Keep sea lanes open to Canada - mercantile lifeline

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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NATIONAL POLITICS

Whigs
- pro-New England
seccession

Democrats plus American Party
= Union

Progressives split on geographical lines

- - -

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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