As explained in the last chapter, the US's newly formed Democratic regime was faced with a choice of which of their neighbors to provoke. Should they retake Michigan? Annex Texas? Attack Great Britain? Spain or France perhaps? As a visual aid I've summarized the "Pros and Cons" of all these major options as the Democrats saw them.
The United Kingdom
---Pros: There was a historical precedent of a war against The UK in the mind of the American people.
---Cons: The UK was at least as strong as the US, and would likely put up a strong fight even if the Staters won. The US possessed no viable casus belli against the British, and recent events (the purchase of Freetown, free passage to Upper Canada) had left the two nations on relatively friendly terms. War with the UK was out of the question.
The Republic of Michigan
---Pros: The RoM was far weaker than the US militarily, possessed little manpower, and was very unfriendly towards the US. The US had several casus belli against the RoM (The Pacifica Dispute and The Michiganian Revolution for starters). The Republic of Michigan was very appealing.
---Cons: The RoM was allied with the Republic of Quebec and was at the time very friendly with France, who was likely to intervene on some level if war broke out. The Democrats also didn't want to deal with the massive territorial disputes that the outcome would likely lead to (The UK would probably want Canada back). It is for these reasons that war against Michigan was delayed in the 1840s.
La República de Tejas
---Pros: See list above. Northeastern Tejas was overwhelmingly pro-annexation, and it was unclear whether or not the Tejino Government would intervene in the event of a plebiscite.
---Cons: They, too were allied with France. There remained better targets in the region.
La République du Québec
---Pros: Very few. Quebec was not especially weak, nor did the US have a valid claim to it.
---Cons: See the Con list for a war against Michigan.
Mexico
---Pros: After the Tyrant's War (AKA The Tejan Revolution or The Pastry War), Mexico ceased to exist as a coherent state. "Mexican" piracy against US shipping gives the US a good reason to intervene.
---Cons: Mexico remained under Spanish occupation following the Tyrant's War, and at the time functioned essentially as a Spanish colony. No war could be waged in Mexico without provoking Spain first...
Spain
---Pros: More than any of the above examples, Spain had provided the US with multiple casus belli. Spain had been caught shipping arms to Seminole guerrillas in Florida Territory on several occasions, and had failed to stop the rise of Piracy along the coast of Mexico. Spanish Colonies in the region were just a stone's throw away from open revolt. The Spanish Military was poorly kept, their navy was decades old while the US's was mere months old.
---Cons: Although Stater annalists insisted that the US outgunned Spain, the difference was not so great. Such a war could prove to be costly and (more importantly) long for the US. Despite these cons, however, Spain remained the sole acceptable choice for a US assault.
Polk had made his choice, and all that he needed was an incident to kick off the war against Spain.
-----------From Know Your Enemy by Martin Kinney, Retired Director of Michiganian N.I.D.
The United Kingdom
---Pros: There was a historical precedent of a war against The UK in the mind of the American people.
---Cons: The UK was at least as strong as the US, and would likely put up a strong fight even if the Staters won. The US possessed no viable casus belli against the British, and recent events (the purchase of Freetown, free passage to Upper Canada) had left the two nations on relatively friendly terms. War with the UK was out of the question.
The Republic of Michigan
---Pros: The RoM was far weaker than the US militarily, possessed little manpower, and was very unfriendly towards the US. The US had several casus belli against the RoM (The Pacifica Dispute and The Michiganian Revolution for starters). The Republic of Michigan was very appealing.
---Cons: The RoM was allied with the Republic of Quebec and was at the time very friendly with France, who was likely to intervene on some level if war broke out. The Democrats also didn't want to deal with the massive territorial disputes that the outcome would likely lead to (The UK would probably want Canada back). It is for these reasons that war against Michigan was delayed in the 1840s.
La República de Tejas
---Pros: See list above. Northeastern Tejas was overwhelmingly pro-annexation, and it was unclear whether or not the Tejino Government would intervene in the event of a plebiscite.
---Cons: They, too were allied with France. There remained better targets in the region.
La République du Québec
---Pros: Very few. Quebec was not especially weak, nor did the US have a valid claim to it.
---Cons: See the Con list for a war against Michigan.
Mexico
---Pros: After the Tyrant's War (AKA The Tejan Revolution or The Pastry War), Mexico ceased to exist as a coherent state. "Mexican" piracy against US shipping gives the US a good reason to intervene.
---Cons: Mexico remained under Spanish occupation following the Tyrant's War, and at the time functioned essentially as a Spanish colony. No war could be waged in Mexico without provoking Spain first...
Spain
---Pros: More than any of the above examples, Spain had provided the US with multiple casus belli. Spain had been caught shipping arms to Seminole guerrillas in Florida Territory on several occasions, and had failed to stop the rise of Piracy along the coast of Mexico. Spanish Colonies in the region were just a stone's throw away from open revolt. The Spanish Military was poorly kept, their navy was decades old while the US's was mere months old.
---Cons: Although Stater annalists insisted that the US outgunned Spain, the difference was not so great. Such a war could prove to be costly and (more importantly) long for the US. Despite these cons, however, Spain remained the sole acceptable choice for a US assault.
Polk had made his choice, and all that he needed was an incident to kick off the war against Spain.
-----------From Know Your Enemy by Martin Kinney, Retired Director of Michiganian N.I.D.
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