The Tehran Gamble

In 1980 the Carter Administration authorized an ill-fated rescue attempt-Operation Eagle Claw-of the hostages who had been languishing in Iran since November 1979.

WI the attempt had succeeded? Or, to put it differently...what if the Israelis had been the ones who carried it out? Based on their experiences at Entebbe, could they have pulled it off, would it have helped Carter win that year's Presidential election, and, despite the outcry on the "Arab street" that would have followed, could it have discredited the Ayatollah in the eyes of the Iranian people?
 
Carter was too far gone at this point. Like Callaghan, the economy finished him off, if he ever really started. What's required is the Ayatollah getting kicked upstairs, with the Shah negotiating with republican moderates. I covered this in RFK Renewed in some detail, but that's a somewhat different TTL world.
 

Bearcat

Banned
In 1980 the Carter Administration authorized an ill-fated rescue attempt-Operation Eagle Claw-of the hostages who had been languishing in Iran since November 1979.

WI the attempt had succeeded? Or, to put it differently...what if the Israelis had been the ones who carried it out? Based on their experiences at Entebbe, could they have pulled it off, would it have helped Carter win that year's Presidential election, and, despite the outcry on the "Arab street" that would have followed, could it have discredited the Ayatollah in the eyes of the Iranian people?

Entebbe was actually rather remote from Kampala. Whole order of magnitude less difficult than what we were trying to pull off in Teheran.

Going into the heart of Teheran is going to almost guarantee a Cluster Fuck and major casualties. Nasty, nasty stuff, and I'm dubious about the chances for success even if we do hose down any crowds approaching the Embassy. The Israelis will have no more success with this kind of risky op than we would.

If Carter actually gets his miracle, it'll be close in November, but after 7 months of bad economic news, my gut is Reagan still edges him out.
 
I don't know how much the Iranian people would listen to the Arabs. Different ethnicity, history, and culture, sans Islam of course. And even there, they usually practiced different branches.
 
I agree with Bearcat, Eagle Claw was an amazingly difficult operation to attempt and even if the transit was executed better it still would have been a big ask.
 
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