The Talleyrand-Wellington partition plan

When browsing (the Dutch language) wikipedia, I suddenly noticed this plan (which is not the same as the Talleyrand partition plan). I thought it was interesting so I decided to share it. It was a partition proposal for belgium in 1830. The idea was that the Netherlands would keep the predominantly Dutch speaking parts, the provinces of West-Flanders, East-Flanders, Antwerp and (all of) Limburg. France would get the predominantly French/Walloon speaking provinces, Hainaut, Namur, Liege and Southern Brabant (including the Flemish majority areas like Louvain and Brussels). Luxembourg, including later Belgian luxembourg would become its own independent grandduchy within the German Confederation. See map.

Ok, so far so good. First let me extrapolate the consequences for the Netherlands (if you are not interested just skip to the next paragraph). I guess that some of upperclass French speaking people will decide to move to the French parts of Belgium, as this happened OTL in Limburg. This leads to less trouble in Belgium for the future. Still some trouble is due, even in the Netherlands a lot of liberals weren't very happy with the rule of the Dutch kings. It is possible that the liberal constitution of 1848 is butterflied away, but with more Flemish catholics and Liberals in the country and because of that a larger chance of the riots William II wanted to avoid, I doubt it. More catholics means a larger influence for the catholic faction during the pilarization, although the liberal and socialist factions have also more recruits. The only ones who probably will suffer from it is the Protestant faction, although if they don't split like OTL they will still keep a lot of influence. Economically speaking the Netherlands might be a bit richer because of the extra coal, but not that much. The rest of Dutch history will probably remain close to OTL.

Ok, now the more intersting parts: Germany and France. Will this lead to important changes during the German unification? I assume that this late in the 19th century German unification is more or less unavoidable. An independent Luxembourg will probably become part of this new unified Germany (It also depends on who becomes ruler of Luxembourg, I assume the same Nassau branch which rules them now).
It seems almost unavoidable that France and Germany will have a face of in the 19th century (and the 20th). With Wallonia in French hands, the Franco German border is a lot larger, certainly if Luxembourg ends up within Germany.
So do you have any thoughts about it?

Pays-Bas3.jpg
 
You sure?

Who was it who did the TL, i think it was Steve somebody - name def started with an S
 
Good Thread, I was not aware of a division plan like this after the Belgian revolt. It make sense since the out burst of the Belgian revolt was a result of French political refugees and intrigrants who wanted their own revolution like at that time happend in their own country.
Due to blundering of the King and particular his eldest son( the later king William II) in the early days of the revolt, the revolt succeded.
Probably the course of histrory during the 19th century of the Netherlands like this would be the same. An country slowly following the events in the rest of Europe, political isolated, industrial leaping behind, not as much as in OTL but still.
Luxeburg would follow the same course as it did in OTL, maby closer to the NEtherlands after a Prusian French war, but certanly neutral, even if it is economical connected with Germany.
Franche how ever would be industrial much stronger than OTL. Walloon evolved in OTL into the one of the most industrialised earea's of the world, this would be increased when it is connected with the French Flandres, which had the same evolution as Waloon in OTL.
Franche will be a much more industrialised nation as in OTL. Let asume that the course of events follow a more or less simmilar path as in OTL so ending up with an ambisious Napoleon III in Franche and an verry influensial chancellor as Bismark in Prusia.
Will there be a kind of Franco Prussian war? Will the German states unite in an other form instead of a Prusian dominated Empire?
Very interesting
 
Probably the course of histrory during the 19th century of the Netherlands like this would be the same. An country slowly following the events in the rest of Europe, political isolated, industrial leaping behind, not as much as in OTL but still.
Agreed

Luxeburg would follow the same course as it did in OTL, maby closer to the NEtherlands after a Prusian French war, but certanly neutral, even if it is economical connected with Germany.
I am not too sure about that. I assume that an independent Luxembourg means a Luxembourg not in personal union with the Netherlands. I don't know who will become grandduke, maybe the other son of the Dutch king Prince Frederik. Or maybe the Nassau branch that later inherited Luxembourg. Anyway, from that moment Luxembourgs history isn't linked to the netherlands but to Germany. So my guess would be that it will be incorporated into any Germany that will form (assuming a germany will form, but that seems likely).

Franche how ever would be industrial much stronger than OTL. Walloon evolved in OTL into the one of the most industrialised earea's of the world, this would be increased when it is connected with the French Flandres, which had the same evolution as Waloon in OTL.
Franche will be a much more industrialised nation as in OTL. Let asume that the course of events follow a more or less simmilar path as in OTL so ending up with an ambisious Napoleon III in Franche and an verry influensial chancellor as Bismark in Prusia.
Will there be a kind of Franco Prussian war? Will the German states unite in an other form instead of a Prusian dominated Empire?
Very interesting
And that is indeed the interesting question and the reason I posted this thread.
 
Asume NApoleon III will enter the stage as Bismark.
Franch much more indusrtial as in OTL.
Napoleon sucseed, despite his diplomatic blunders as in OTL, to keep Bavaria and Baden Wurtenberg out of the influence of Prusian Bismark.
Franco Prusian war will erupt som how. Why not, in oTL the causus belli was absolute rediculous, even by the diplomats of that time.
Only this time, despite Prusioan superiour organisation the Prusians lead North German armies have to leave the field of Battle.
German dualism reamins, evolving in a stronger German dominated Southern (Catholic)German Union. Baden WurtenBerg, Bavaria and Autrian Hungarian Empre. North German( Protestant) economical union. Prusia, Hannover and small states. Prusia lost his reputation and a part of his dominance. Bismark will be dumped by King William of Prusia as most of other hawks. King William disliked the idea of Emipre in Germany anyhow, and Bismark as well.
North German Union, will evolve in a kind of confedration. Liberal, democratic powers will evolve better and faster as in OTL.
South German States remain autocratic Monargies, eventulay bursting in revolt and national unrest.
Franche will be for a few decades the most dominant factor on the European continent untill social unrest will settle the balance of power.
Bigger Netherlands will have almost have the same course of events as it have in OTL. A bit more social unrest in the Textile areas in Flandres.
Antwerp will be come a real huge port, no interuption due to a blocked Schelde. Gent will grow faster an as well with no interuption du to a lost marked. The marked of the textile mills of Gent are the Dutch posesions in Asia.
Will this NEtherlands keep possision in the African continent or it will even join the land grab.
It will certanly hav the Atche war in Indonesia.
Amsterdam will defenatly lose its dominat power, and even its economical pawer ot Antwerp, Gent and later Rotterdam. No direct water conectionwith the North sea for Amsterdam due to high cost of building the Norh Sea channel.
Earlier railroad bridges crossing the big rivers, improving the railraod network.
 
If there erupt a second French, German war, most likely with Southern German States, This kind of Netherlands will remain neutral as well. No strategic benefit to invade this corner of Europe
 
Asume NApoleon III will enter the stage as Bismark.
Franch much more indusrtial as in OTL.
Napoleon sucseed, despite his diplomatic blunders as in OTL, to keep Bavaria and Baden Wurtenberg out of the influence of Prusian Bismark.
Franco Prusian war will erupt som how. Why not, in oTL the causus belli was absolute rediculous, even by the diplomats of that time.
Only this time, despite Prusioan superiour organisation the Prusians lead North German armies have to leave the field of Battle.
German dualism reamins, evolving in a stronger German dominated Southern (Catholic)German Union. Baden WurtenBerg, Bavaria and Autrian Hungarian Empre. North German( Protestant) economical union. Prusia, Hannover and small states. Prusia lost his reputation and a part of his dominance. Bismark will be dumped by King William of Prusia as most of other hawks. King William disliked the idea of Emipre in Germany anyhow, and Bismark as well.
North German Union, will evolve in a kind of confedration. Liberal, democratic powers will evolve better and faster as in OTL.
South German States remain autocratic Monargies, eventulay bursting in revolt and national unrest.
Franche will be for a few decades the most dominant factor on the European continent untill social unrest will settle the balance of power.

I don't see why Napoleon III would be able to keep southern Germany out of Prussia's sphere of influence. Napoleon III's diplomacy skills are incompetent enough for that to happen anyway. Still I agree that a French Wallonia means a stronger more industrialized France, which will have a better chance against Germany in 1870. Without southern Germany a more industrialized France could very well win. This means the loss of the rhineland for Germany or at least part of it. Luxembourg at least will be French and I suspect that only the Bavarian palatinate will remain German, if Bavaria doesn't enter the war. This will be a heavy blow for Germany and actualy might lead to a Germany anyway, but without the Prussian dominance, maybe lead by Austria, who will try to become the savior of Germany.
Germany will not accept the loss of the rhineland (and neither will its inhabitants) and I suspect a lot of wars will arise, so they can recapture it. The Netherlands will probably be very scared as suddenly they will be the onlyones standing between France and is "natural" border. France might try to capture it, although it knows that means a war not only with the Netherlands (who France can easily beat), but also with Germany (who traditionaly has good diplomatic relations with the Netherlands and wishes to get the rhineland back) and Great Britain (who does not want France to gain the northsea coast).


Bigger Netherlands will have almost have the same course of events as it have in OTL. A bit more social unrest in the Textile areas in Flandres.
Antwerp will be come a real huge port, no interuption due to a blocked Schelde. Gent will grow faster an as well with no interuption du to a lost marked. The marked of the textile mills of Gent are the Dutch posesions in Asia.
Will this NEtherlands keep possision in the African continent or it will even join the land grab.
It will certanly hav the Atche war in Indonesia.
Amsterdam will defenatly lose its dominat power, and even its economical pawer ot Antwerp, Gent and later Rotterdam. No direct water conectionwith the North sea for Amsterdam due to high cost of building the Norh Sea channel.
Earlier railroad bridges crossing the big rivers, improving the railraod network.
I don't think Amsterdam will lose its dominant power. Sure, Antwerp, Gent, Brugge might take some its glory, like Rotterdam did, but Amsterdam still has a very good headstart. I think that Amsterdam will remain the largest city in the Netherlands and remains its capital. But you are right that Antwerp and the other Flemish cities will become influential and rich. No doubt Antwerp will be added to the Dutch waterline and become part of the "randstad".
The Netherlands will not be interested in Africa (so no Dutch congo), but concentrate on Indonesia. It most certainly will try to capture Atjeh and all other parts of indonesia it didn't have. Because a larger population I think it is even possible that all of Borneo and new Guinea (possibly including the Bismarck archippelago). Who gets the Belgian Congo? no idea, maybe France although Britain might not want France to get it, which could lead to a German Congo or maybe a Portuguese Congo if Britain or France don´t want to give it to germany.
 
Or perhaps a Danish Congo, quite a number of Danes worked as entrepeneurs for the Belgians in the Congo.
Might not be a state colony as Denmark was reluctant in engaging in such since 1845 but a private venture like Leo's!
 
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