The Talleyrand Plan

Hello all. I'm researching a TL involving a modified Talleyrand plan being accepted in the aftermath of the Belgian Revolution- so partition, rather than a modern day Belgium. The plan will likely involve France getting a sizeable chunk of Wallonia, but being forced into certain territorial concessiosn elsewhere in return. A land exchange, essentially.

Now, what are everyone's views on how likely this is? I think it's doable myself, given the right offers to the various factions. Any particular ideas you have of your own relating to how such a partition would be done? A timeline will be up at some point, it's a nice break from my finals revision!
 
So short after Napoleon? I don't think the other powers would accept France getting stronger.

Well, my idea is that France will have to hand territory of its own to other countries if it wants Wallonia, a bit like France's plan after WW1 to get the Netherlands to hand Limburg to Belgium in return for a chunk of Germany.. And it won't get Wallonia in its entirety, about half. Luxembourg will be strengthened in this plan, I think (as a part of the Netherlands, I mean).
 
Here we go. There won't be a map for a while because I'm having to use a shared computer at the moment, and I've got other things to do.

As the violence in the Netherlands continued, Talleyrand submitted a partition plan to the Great Powers. This would split the south between France, the Netherlands, Prussia and a Free State of Antwerp under British protection. This was considered but rejected.

POD:

Talleyrand was determined to find a way for France to take western Walonnia and Brussels, even if it involved a territory exchange. Without Louis-Philippe's knowledge, he began new negotiations and hammered out an agreement with the Prussians and the British, playing to their desires to not let France expand too much and playing down France's ambitions.

The New Talleyrand Plan was eventually agreed upon. Louis-Phillipe and his Prime Minister Jacques Lafitte seemed enthusiastic, and Prussia and Britain were satisfied. The Dutch didn't really have grounds to complain as they knew by now that they were going to lose out.

The plan was thus:
-The Netherlands would keep the entirety of Limburg, and much of Luxembourg.
-Prussia would annex Liege and assosciated territories up to the River Meuse, but would be administered as a new Duchy of Liege.
-France would acquire Brussels (but not its northern and eastern hinterlands, nor Leuven).
-Everything else would make up the new Free State of Antwerp, under British protection.

In return, France had to make the following territorial cessions to smaller powers:
-Dunkirk and district, ethnically Flemish, to Antwerp, partly to shore up the new country's economy.
-Mulhouse and Belfort to Switzerland as the new canton of Jura.
-Thionville to Luxembourg.
The Mediterranean littoral as far as Grasse to the Kingdom of Sardinia.

It was a hard bargain, but for France, gaining the coal mines of Hainault outweighed the loss of various territories for whom the Paris political elite had little use. It was Talleyrand's last diplomatic success in continental Europe.
 
The partition was finally settled on the 16th January 1831 in the Treaty of Namur.

In France, the acquisition of new territory on such a scale largely outweighed the cession of various relatively unproductive areas (with the exception of Thionville, whose citizenry did not take too kindly to it). Jacques Lafitte, the Prime Minister, was riding a crest of popularity. He decided that now was the time to call legislative elections. After all, Louis Philippe was as yet in no position to challenge him fully, especially with such public support amongst the (granted, fairly limited) franchise. And the newly attached regions were relatively liberal and more likely to vote for him. And so it was. In early February, the elections took place, delivering a safe working majority to Lafitte and his allies. As a nod to the new departments (Dyle, Meuse, Hainaut), a Walloon, Alexandre Gendebien, was appointed as minister of Education and Religion.

The new cabinet included:
Interior- Camille de Montalivet
Foreign- Marshal Soult
War- Marshal Gerard
Justice- Adolphe Thiers
Finances- Dupont de l'Eure
Education: Alexandre Gendebien

Across the Alps, Italian carbonari were enthused. Austria knew not to move against them yet.
 
Louis-Philippe had earlier promised Ciro Menotti that he would intervene if Austria moved against the Carbonari, and Lafitte's liberal government was well on side. Despite Dupont de l'Eure's usual Republican convictions, he was prepared to put this aside if the Citizen King was going to stay true to his promises.

Lafitte very quickly moved to implement measures of the Charter of 1830, such as religious equality, leading to an influx of Spanish Protestants into the south-west regions. Carbonari groups from Italy were equally tolerated, notably Giuseppe Mazzani down in Marseille. He benefited from Louis-Philippe's preoccupation with sorting out the marriage of his daughter to Leopold I Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the new (and first) Prince of Antwerp.

Up in northern Italy, Francis IV was wondering how best to increase his power. Harnessing the liberal mood seemed a good idea. Maybe he really could make it all work to his advantage. To this end, he started paying lip service to the Carbonari, above all to Ciro Menotti. Francis IV was a mere duke, but his dreams of being King of a north Italian kingdom were strong.
 
Interesting TL, and a fresh idea. Frankly, I'm more interested in the liberal mood of some courts (most likely, the apparent pro-liberal mood :D ) rather than in France getting the Hinault mines. Sooner or later, the bill will come out to be paid: I'm looking forward to seeing who will get it

Mind, Francis IV duke of Modena etc. was a sanguinary tyrant, who saw a plot in every shadow. He was portrayed as an ambitious ruler, obsessed by the almost sacred status of monarchy. I doubt that anything god can come out of his machinations.
 
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Interesting TL, and a fresh idea. Frankly, I'm more interested in the liberal mood of some courts (most likely, the apparent pro-liberal mood :D ) rather than in France getting the Hinault mines. Sooner or later, the bill will come out to be paid: I'm looking forward to seeing who will get it

Mind, Francis IV duke of Modena etc. was a sanguinary tyrant, who saw a plot in every shadow. He was portrayed as an ambitious ruler, obsessed by the almost sacred status of monarchy. I doubt that anything god can come out of his machinations.

Thanks very much! It was an idea I brooded on whilst I lived in Belgium, but hasn't come into fruition until now that I'm back in Blighty for good!

Glad the liberal mood interests you- that was what I was going for. After all, one day the Hainaut mines will be an albatross round France's neck when they start being depleted.

Francis IV will play a much bigger role in this TL than in OTL. Italy is going to turn out very differently...
 
Francis IV met Louis-Philippe and Lafitte at Marseille in March 1831. His professions of agreement with Menotti had endeared him to Liberals, despite his dubious reputation. From over the border in the Kingdom of Sardinia, news came that King Charles Felix was ailing, and that Charles Albert, more sympathetic to the cause, would soon be on the throne.

Louis-Philippe agreed that Menotti , on behalf of Francis IV, could stir up and annex Parma without French intervention- he had little love for Marie-Louise, its duchess. However, he was warned off trying to annex Lucca, and against fomenting trouble in Tuscany for now.

Francis IV returned to Mantua, where he was based. He allowed Menotti to head off to Parma, and raised his army. On the 6th May, without warning, he entered Parma's territory before dawn. On this signal, Carbonari rose up and seized key buildings in the major towns. Marie-Louise herself was swiftly deposed. Within 3 weeks, the Grand Duchy of Modena and Parma had been declared, recognised by France. Austria was perplexed. Two of its ostensible clients had gone to war- it didn't seem to matter in general. Francis I of Austria couldn't work out how to intervene.

But Francis IV had not yet had enough. Still professing his newly-found enthusiasm for Italian liberation, he declared himself its greatest hope, which irritated the Sardinians. He had no intention of taking Lucca. Nor Tuscany. He intended to use his French backing to follow his dream...

He ordered his generals to draw up plans for an invasion of Lombardy.

Meanwhile, in Britain, the liberal mood was leading to the imminent abolition of slavery and the passage of the famous 1831 Reform Act began to be passed through Parliament with much less hostility than expected. Prussia was having some difficulty swallowing its new Francophone territories however- there was a distinct lack of co-operation in many areas, and rioting at Verviers had to be brutally suppressed between the 15th and 24th of Fberuary 1831.
 
Francis IV met Louis-Philippe and Lafitte at Marseille in March 1831. His professions of agreement with Menotti had endeared him to Liberals, despite his dubious reputation. From over the border in the Kingdom of Sardinia, news came that King Charles Felix was ailing, and that Charles Albert, more sympathetic to the cause, would soon be on the throne.
Charles Albert - at this stage of his life - is not at all a liberal. He was in his youth, and as a regent for Charles Felix granted a Constitution patterned on the Spanish one of 1823. Then he was forced to recant, the constitution was abolished and he took a turn toward despotism. One of his first acts in assuming the throne was to persecute the Carbonari. I grant that when he took the throne the liberals expected him to grant again a constitution, but they were sadly disappointed. On the other hand, he was a reformist king, and gave a strong impulse to industrialization of Piedmont (compare with Francis IV, who preferred agriculture to industry, since peasants were more reliable than industry workers :D ). This is still in the future at this stage; so maybe you are not completely wrong: you just give voice to the expectations of the Italian liberals.

Louis-Philippe agreed that Menotti , on behalf of Francis IV, could stir up and annex Parma without French intervention- he had little love for Marie-Louise, its duchess. However, he was warned off trying to annex Lucca, and against fomenting trouble in Tuscany for now.

Francis IV returned to Mantua, where he was based. He allowed Menotti to head off to Parma, and raised his army. On the 6th May, without warning, he entered Parma's territory before dawn. On this signal, Carbonari rose up and seized key buildings in the major towns. Marie-Louise herself was swiftly deposed. Within 3 weeks, the Grand Duchy of Modena and Parma had been declared, recognised by France. Austria was perplexed. Two of its ostensible clients had gone to war- it didn't seem to matter in general. Francis I of Austria couldn't work out how to intervene.
I would say that he returned to Modena. Mantua is one of the 4 main fortresses in Austrian Italian possessions.
Marie-Louise was the daughter of Francis I, and at the Vienna Congress a lot of efforts had been devoted to find a proper throne for her. Admittedly, Marie-Louise was not exactly loved in Vienna (she was considered politically dangerous), and Francis IV was also an Austrian client. Still, I'd think unlikely that the Austrians would accept a fait accompli so easily.
The other question that begs an answer is: will a constitution be granted? IMHO, if Francis IV dithers (or worse refuses to grant a constitution), the carbonari will be disillused very soon, and turn against him: which will mean an insurrection and an open door for Austrians to come in. If he grants a constitution (I'd assume patterned on the new French one), he'll become anathema for all the representatives of the old order. Francis is riding a tiger, and cannot get off.

But Francis IV had not yet had enough. Still professing his newly-found enthusiasm for Italian liberation, he declared himself its greatest hope, which irritated the Sardinians.
I disagree withy the Sardinian irritation. Sardinia as the leader for unification of Italy is still 20 years in the future. In 1830 the kingdom is still under the clamp of the Restauration, and no one thinks that the Savoys might end up on the Italian throne.

He had no intention of taking Lucca. Nor Tuscany. He intended to use his French backing to follow his dream...

He ordered his generals to draw up plans for an invasion of Lombardy.

Lombardy? Taking the full blunt of Austrian counter-offensive, since he will be inavding Austrian lands? With the army of the duchy of Modena and a bunch of insurgents? Lombardy might come, in the future and if he's smart enough (but he's to be truly smart).
If you don't mind my meddling in your TL, I would make the following suggestion:
  • in 1830-31 a number of insurrection took place in Italy: chiefly they happened in Romagna (which was part of the Papal states) and Genoa (under the kingdom of Sardinia, after the congress of Vienna). In OTL, the insurrections were bloodily repressed by the Austrians (and your friend Philip d'Orleans sent a naval squad to occupy Ancona, on the Adriatic litoral, and to support the repression: never mind that he sponsored the principle of non-interference). Interestingly enough, there was also another French connection: Luigi Bonaparte was one of the leaders in the Romagna insurrection.
  • Suppose that Francis IV goes along with the tide: not only he sends arms and supplies to the insurgents, but he moves his army to block Austrian probes into Romagna. Philip agains sends a naval squad to Ancona, and an expeditionary force. The formal justification is to help in keeping order; however in TTL the French are really supporting the insurgents, not helping to put them down.
  • This scenario also makes more sense if francis wants to have a real French support. Suppose he tries to invade Lombardy. Where are his allies coming from? Sardinia is against the insurrection, and there is no chance to use the alpine passes. Landing in northern Tuscany and then marching across the Appennines would be a logistical nightmare.
  • If you want to widen the number of participants, remember that the British should still be garrisoning Corfu. A more liberal British public opinion might stampede the government in giving some support too.
  • If everything goes well, and the Franco-modenese are able to coordinate their moves, Austria might get a bloody nose, and the pope too. When the dust settles, Francis is offered the crown of Cispadania (= below the Po river), as Francis I. But there must be a constitution.
  • an additional possibility might be to give some support to the insurrection in Genoa, both by land, through Garfagnana and eastern Liguria and by sea (courtesy of Philip again). The insurrection is successful here too, and the grateful populace re-establish the republic of Genoa, granting however the hereditary dogal title to Francis I of Cispadania and his heirs.

A lot of ifs, predicated on a slow Austrian reaction, a very smart Francis and Philip playing ball. More credible however than an invasion of Lombardy.
Like that?
Austria is certainly having kittens, the pope is tremendously pissed off, Russia is grumbling (but it is also the epriod of the establishment of Greece, so maybe they are distracted by the east), the Bourbons in Southern Italy are quite worried; and Piedmont is certainly very much pissed off, having lost the recently acquired Liguria. But Piedmont is quite vulnerable to an alliance between France and Modena.
 
@LordKalvan
My bad about Charles Albert. I am hoping though that the generally liberal mood in France will have an effect.

As for the Lombardy thing- Francis IV, according to what I've read, was hoping to become a King of Northern Italy. He won't actually go into Lombardy in this TL (he's hoping on a Carbonari revolt there allowing him to enter and extract "concessions" for his help, which won't happen). He is, however, going to sow the seeds of his own destruction.

I agree with your point about Sardinia not being the agent of unification yet, but I'm imagining Sardinia being irritated by Francis IV meddling on its eastern borders.

As for Mantua- apparently Francis IV was based in Mantua rather than Modena itself at this point, but I can't find out why! Bit of a mystery, I presume the climate in Modena was a bit too tense at that point.

More later today! (once I've done a few hours of Voltaire revision...)
 
There has not been any time to make an impact. CA was known for his deep swinging moods, but even for him it would be too much.

I find Mantua very strange: as i said, it was an important Austrian fortress, and with an awful climate. Two good reasons for Francis to stay away from it.

I'm sure that Francis would love becoming king of Northern italy (or maybe of all Italy). However, picking up Austria as the next enemy is a bit too much.
I still think that an attempt to exploit the insurgencies of the 1830=31 would be smarter
 
With a great debt to some of LordKalvan's points!

Francis's plans soon changed very quickly.

Rioting broke out in Bologna in mid-July, and soon spread across Romagna and into the other Papal Legations, particularly Ravenna. Francis IV, having used the Carbonari, was in a paradoxical position. On one hand, he was somewhat dependent on the liberals, but on the other, he was seen now as an ally of liberal politics by the less aware revolutionaries elsewhere.

The French government began covertly running arms and capital to the insurgents, as soon did Modena. In Tuscany, dissent was simmering but for now there would be no intervention. Franz of Austria was not impressed however, nor was Pope Gregory XVI. Franz ordered Field Marshal Radetzky to lead an army into Romagna to restore order. But this was not going to be easy at all.

On the 4th August, Carbonari seized control of the ducal palace in Lucca. Duke Charles Louis was away in Germany at the time.

Meanwhile, in the former polities of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, an economic boom was in swing. Due to its British protection, the Scheldt had been reopened for the first time in centuries, beginning a boom in Antwerp. The docks were extended partly with the help of prisoners sent by Britain after the Swing Riots in Kent some 8 months earlier (the kernel of today's "Little England" in Berchem).

In the Netherlands itself, the swift resolution to the conflict, plus an influx of skilled Netherlandophone Protestants from Brussels and western Vlaams-Brabant was leading to a surge in economic activity, focused particularly on Hasselt.

Over the border in Prussia, Friedrich Wilhelm IV was under increasing pressure to grant a constitution. This was partly due to the strong liberal mood of the era, but also as a result of the absorption of nearly 1 million Liegeois and other Walloons, who were strongly liberal and added to the liberal corps.
 
I am interested in the state of Antwerp. I think it would be a French speaking country in which the majority of the population speaks Dutch/Flemish. One of the reasons of the Belgian war of independence was that the upper class (and a large portion of the middle class, i believe) of Belgium (including Flanders) spoke French.
 
I am interested in the state of Antwerp. I think it would be a French speaking country in which the majority of the population speaks Dutch/Flemish. One of the reasons of the Belgian war of independence was that the upper class (and a large portion of the middle class, i believe) of Belgium (including Flanders) spoke French.

You are indeed right. Actually, I think this Antwerp will be officially bilingual, but overwhelmingly Flemish-speaking. Although the "fransquillons" were numerous in Ghent, a lot of the Francophone upper class lived in Brussels, which in this TL has gone to France. So both will have equal standing (for now), but the lack of a Francophone hinterland will mean that the language issue will rear its head sooner.
 
There is a little problem with the flag of Francis IV. The Dukes of Modena used the traditional eagle of the Este family until the French invasion, in 1794, and then from 1814 to 1829. See below:

http://digilander.libero.it/breschirob/europagif/modena.gif

In 1830, our friend decided to suck up to his Austrian protectors, and so he changed the escutcheon, quartering the Este eagle with the Austrian colors and the arms of Habsburg and Lorraine.

http://digilander.libero.it/breschirob/europagif/modenstem.gif

The flag of Modena between 1830 and 1859 was as follows in OTL:

http://digilander.libero.it/breschirob/europagif/modenast.gif (flag of the duchy of Modena and Reggio)

http://digilander.libero.it/breschirob/europagif/modenaus.gif (commercial flag)

Just to complicate a bit more the issue, Francis annexed the duchy of Massa (which gave Modena a seaport) in 1829.

This were the arms of the duchy of Massa: http://digilander.libero.it/breschirob/europagif/massastem1.gif (displaying the arms of both Este and Malaspina families). However, apparently they were no more used after the death of the last duchess in 1829.

If Francis wants to become too big for his britches, it does not make much sense for him to quarter his flag with the arms of Austria.
Maybe he keeps the old Este arms only; maybe he chooses (or is forced to choose) the tricolor of the Cispadan Republic (which was firstly displayed in Reggio, 25 km from Modena), with the Este arms in the central white field.

You did not tell me if he's been asked a constitution, and if he's going to grant it.
 
You did not tell me if he's been asked a constitution, and if he's going to grant it.

I will tackle that in time, but for now I'm working on the basis that the liberals and Carbonari are too busy dealing with what's brewing on the borders. Needless to say, he will definitely bring about his own downfall...and I'm planning a rather intriguing choice of monarch to replace him.
 
I will tackle that in time, but for now I'm working on the basis that the liberals and Carbonari are too busy dealing with what's brewing on the borders. Needless to say, he will definitely bring about his own downfall...and I'm planning a rather intriguing choice of monarch to replace him.

Now you're worrying me, given the quality of the rulers in Italy at the time. The only decent one was possibly Leopold of Tuscany, but even he was not a prize.
If you are going to end up with the pope in charge of everything, I promise I'll bomb this TL. :mad:
I was rather hoping that Italy would become a federal republic, from grass roots, rather than a unitary kingdom imposed from above, but from your words I doubt it will end this way :D
 
Now you're worrying me, given the quality of the rulers in Italy at the time. The only decent one was possibly Leopold of Tuscany, but even he was not a prize.
If you are going to end up with the pope in charge of everything, I promise I'll bomb this TL. :mad:
I was rather hoping that Italy would become a federal republic, from grass roots, rather than a unitary kingdom imposed from above, but from your words I doubt it will end this way :D

I don't think I've ever seen a PopeWank ATL before! :)

If you are intrigued by the choice of monarch, I can tell you that it will end up being an outsider imposed by the Great Powers. It'll be an unexpected choice, but considering OTL threw up a scenario where Queen Victoria's uncle ended up ruling Belgium and a Wittelsbach was given Greece, anything is plausible!!!
 
As it became clear that Radetzky's troops were moving into Romagna, there was fury in patriotic circles in Italy. From all over the land came volunteers determined to fight in whatever way they could. Louis-Philippe meanwhile sent a warning to Vienna that France was not amused, and that a failure to withdraw would mean large-scale French intervention. Franz ignored this note.

On the 12th August, two major events shaped the course of the disturbances. Firstly, a French naval detachment under Admiral de Missiessey landed French troops onto the coast of Lucca. In its state of anarchy, and the help of collabaorators, it fell within just a week. It was now clear that war loomed between Austria and France- Lucca had been an Austrian client until extremely recently. The other powers in Europe began to watch very closely.

The second event was in Romagna. Near Ferrara, an Austrian battalion was slaughtered by guerillas jsut after dusk as they set up camp. It was clear that Austria would not be having it its own way.
 
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