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What if the 1996 Taiwan straits crisis spiraled out of control into a war? Say the Independence Carrier Group is sent directly into the straits, and in order to demonstrate their own power, the PRC orders an invasion of the proximate ROC islands? Taiwan retaliates against China, and the Chinese, thinking the USA was involved, fire at the Independence? I think this scenario is possible--neither nation really wants war, but a series of mis-communications sends up with the USA and PRC fighting each other, and neither willing to back down. So what happens in the ensuing war? How does the post-war world look?
Here is a link where I got the relevant info, including how close the USA came to sending the Independence group into the straits and general Taiwanese war plans.