The Sword of Freedom: A Franco-British Union TL; Pre TL Discussion

[Fearless Leader]

One of the first major effects that a Franco-British Union (and thus a much larger continued French involvement in the war) is that it's going to put MUCH more pressure on Italy. Unable to cope with the Germans in the North, the Bulk of France's army and AF are going to pull back towards the Med. destroying everything they can (and evacuating as much equippment as they can).

Italy's going to try to cut the French off but as their OTL performance shows, they're not going to be able to. All the while I'd wager that Italian casualties are going to be mounting and Italy's military is going to be seriously questioning Mussolini's ability to lead Italy in this war.

Things will get even worse when Libya comes under attack from not only French Tunisia but Egypt. Cut off from Italy by Franco-British naval forces the Italian army is going to be in no way prepared for an offensive. Furthermore with an influx of French troops(and planes) from the mainland, the Allies are. Given a competent enough commander for the French it's concievable that Italy could be driven off the African sub-continent by the end of 1940.

The loss of her colonies, heavy casualties in taking Southern France, and naval losses to Anglo-French forces, might just be enough to force Italy's generals to stage a coup and replace Mussolini in order to sign a seperate peace with the Allies. I'd wager that the allies would demand Italy surrender her African territories, as well as refuse to trade with Germany in order to secure a peace.

Italy opting out early could very well change the entire makeup of the war...

 

[DuQuense]

The Franco-British Union WILL LAST after the end of the war,

Yea -- a earlier Chunnel.

Given a earlier fall of Italian NAfrica, ?Would there be a Balkan Front?

 

[merlin]

The big snag, is going to be supplies. All the French factories ASAIK are in metropolitan France, which will be certainly overrun by the Germans.
With all the people evacuated to French North Africa, can the aggriculture of the area support them?
Will the US start lend-lease earlier, or will the Anglo-French be paying in hard currency for military equipment?
If there is a BoB it won't be on the scale of OTL, German focus will be to the South, big question, is will they be in time to save Italian North Africa - though how would they be able to get any supplies there!

 

[Alratan]

I did a TL on this a long time ago, Earlier European Integration, but never got it up to the current date, so good luck.

 

[Dunois]

Things will get even worse when Libya comes under attack from not only French Tunisia but Egypt. Cut off from Italy by Franco-British naval forces the Italian army is going to be in no way prepared for an offensive. Furthermore with an influx of French troops(and planes) from the mainland, the Allies are. Given a competent enough commander for the French it's concievable that Italy could be driven off the African sub-continent by the end of 1940.

The loss of her colonies, heavy casualties in taking Southern France, and naval losses to Anglo-French forces, might just be enough to force Italy's generals to stage a coup and replace Mussolini in order to sign a seperate peace with the Allies. I'd wager that the allies would demand Italy surrender her African territories, as well as refuse to trade with Germany in order to secure a peace.

Italy opting out early could very well change the entire makeup of the war...

Italy will indeed be driven off the African continent by the end of 1940 and might even loose more stuff like the Dodecanese as well.

I am not entirely sure that Italy could pull out of the war like that in 1940, when Italy eventually did just that in 1943 what followed was an invasion of Italy itself by Germany so I am not sure here.

Yea -- a earlier Chunnel.

Given a earlier fall of Italian NAfrica, ?Would there be a Balkan Front?

A earlier Chunnel indeed !
There might be some kind of Balkan front indeed though probably not by 1940 or even 1941.

The big snag, is going to be supplies. All the French factories ASAIK are in metropolitan France, which will be certainly overrun by the Germans.
With all the people evacuated to French North Africa, can the aggriculture of the area support them?
Will the US start lend-lease earlier, or will the Anglo-French be paying in hard currency for military equipment?
If there is a BoB it won't be on the scale of OTL, German focus will be to the South, big question, is will they be in time to save Italian North Africa - though how would they be able to get any supplies there!

Expect some amount of development to take place in overseas France during the war, not steel mills, airplane factories and the like from scratch but certainly an increase in the capabilities of the territories and agriculture is the easiest one to improve. Whatever expertise France has left in the armament industry will go and work in Britain or in places like Canada.

France will be involved in lend-lease and don't forget that with the French gold in the hand of the allies there scope for purchases in the US is increased.

I did a TL on this a long time ago, Earlier European Integration, but never got it up to the current date, so good luck.

I know and I read your timeline several times actually.

 

[Archibald]

Would the French really have carried on fighting? Less than 3000 Frenchmen voluntarily joined de Gaulle in 1940, slightly less than voluntarily joined the SS Charlemagne Division.(Yes I know that the history books say 7500 in July 1940, but the rest were Senegalese and Morroccans picked up at Dunkirk.)
All French military men think that they are either God or Napoleon ( except de Gaulle who thought that he was both), so maybe there would have been a lot of little Napoleons in the colonies.
Neither Britain or de Gaulle had much luck with the French until Torch. They shot back in Dakar, they shot back in Syria and they shot back in Madagascar--not a lot, but enough to show that they were not on the allied side. The French didn't need the sinking of the French fleet to hate the British---they are born that way.

Wow, what a load of biased crap !

Back to serious things. Dunois, ever heard of the "France fights on" timeline ?
http://www.francefightson.org/

POD 12 June: mother of defeatists and Reynaud mistress Helene de Portes gets killed in a car accident, with Paul de Villelume. With those two dead, Reynaud doesn't give up on June 16, so the door get closed for Petain. France continues fighting along GB until August 15, after what Reynaud, the governement, armies and navy move to Algier. France stays in the war.

Immediate consequence: Italia is dead meat, notably in North Africa. War ends in North Africa in autumn 1940 - no Afrika Korps !

 

[stevep]

Guys

I agree that the Italian presence I N Africa is doomed but would it be that quick? The French were withdrawing forces from N Africa to fight the Germans and while they will be withdrawing forces it might be unclear how many will get away to the south, especially given the difficulties of a fighting withdraw in the face of the German mechanised and air forces. Also what will get to N Africa will probably be disorganised and short on materials for a while at least. Similarly the British forces that won in Operation Compass were only a couple of divisions which arrived markedly later in the year.

Very little doubt that the Italians will lose and that they could also suffer some demoralising naval loses trying to support their forces in Libya. However not sure it will be resolved before early 41. Doubtful that Hitler will send an African Corp as the problem of getting the forces through to Libya and then supplying them in the face of the French bases in Tunisia and allied naval power is likely to make it virtually suicidal.

The other big early butterfly might be that the BoB could be a none-funner in TTL. Even a slightly longer battle in France will cut into the pretty narrow time allocation for the operation, coupled with the losses involved and need to station forces in southern France. Might get Hitler trying Franco again, offering him extensive French territory as well as Gibraltar, but doubt it will be successful.

May have Mussolini decide not to attack Greece with all the extra problems he has in the south, although that could be assuming too much common sense on his part.

Doubt its going to stop Hitler going west. Although he could actually be a bit stronger off if the Luftwaffe doesn't spend several months battering its head against the RAF. Generally going to be better for the allies but there could be some problems as well.

Steve

 

[Alratan]

Very little doubt that the Italians will lose and that they could also suffer some demoralising naval loses trying to support their forces in Libya. However not sure it will be resolved before early 41.

This is the big thing. With the entire French Fleet active, plus Allied aircraft and submarines operating from Tunisia, Italian North Africa is substantially more isolated than IOTL, so the Italian logistics are really dreadful.

Doubtful that Hitler will send an African Corp as the problem of getting the forces through to Libya and then supplying them in the face of the French bases in Tunisia and allied naval power is likely to make it virtually suicidal.

Agreed. Also, by the time the Italians are desperate, earlier than IOTL, the Germans don't necessarily have the forces free for immediate deployment to the theatre.

The other big early butterfly might be that the BoB could be a none-funner in TTL. Even a slightly longer battle in France will cut into the pretty narrow time allocation for the operation, coupled with the losses involved and need to station forces in southern France. Might get Hitler trying Franco again, offering him extensive French territory as well as Gibraltar, but doubt it will be successful.

The big downside here is that France staying in the war means that the Luftwaffe training programmes, and several other major military projects don't get cancelled, so by the mid-late war the Germans may be better off than OTL at some critical bottlenecks.

May have Mussolini decide not to attack Greece with all the extra problems he has in the south, although that could be assuming too much common sense on his part.

I doubt that, with the need to take Corsica, and the Allies sitting in Tunisia bombing Rome and looking threateningly at Sicily, he'll have any time or Balkan adventures.

Doubt its going to stop Hitler going west. Although he could actually be a bit stronger off if the Luftwaffe doesn't spend several months battering its head against the RAF. Generally going to be better for the allies but there could be some problems as well.

I assume you mean East... and no, I don't. The USSR was the entire point of the war. Hitler was remarkably good at convincing himself that what he wanted to see was true.

 

[Dunois]

Wow, what a load of biased crap !

Back to serious things. Dunois, ever heard of the "France fights on" timeline ?
http://www.francefightson.org/

POD 12 June: mother of defeatists and Reynaud mistress Helene de Portes gets killed in a car accident, with Paul de Villelume. With those two dead, Reynaud doesn't give up on June 16, so the door get closed for Petain. France continues fighting along GB until August 15, after what Reynaud, the governement, armies and navy move to Algier. France stays in the war.

Immediate consequence: Italia is dead meat, notably in North Africa. War ends in North Africa in autumn 1940 - no Afrika Korps !

I do know about the France fights on timeline and I am actually partly taking it as an inspiration for some of the events which will follow.

Italian North Africa will fall by the end of 1940, do not however expect an immediate French offensive from Tunisia, things will only really start to take shape by the autumn. The first priority of the Franco-British command will be the elimination of the Italian Navy, so expect shelling of the Italian coastal bases by the French Navy to continue as well as moves aiming at somehow baiting the Italian Navy in a trap. A Taranto style attack is also a strong possibility.

 

[Kara Iskandar]

Very interesting idea.
I'm subscribed.

 

[Hörnla]

Questions for 1940

The first question to me would be:

-Would Frangland try to seriously fight on in Southern France or rather try to redeploy as many French Forces to Corsica/Northern Africa?
- How long would it last until the German advance reaches the French Riviera?
- How succesful would any evacuation of French forces be?
- Could Corsica be held?
- Would there be a puppet-regime in France à la Vichy? Could it reach the amount of legitimacy Vichy originally enjoyed due to the fact that "the traitors submitted to a British annexation of France and Petain (or another figurehead) was the only guarantee of French sovereignty"?

Depending on these factors, we could estimate on how quickly Italian Africa falls.

I wonder if Greece would get into trouble if Italy were to be as tied up by the Allies. Maybe Churchill would manage to bring them into the Allied camp - we might therefore see a similar , but more prolonged campaign on the Balkans in 1941.

 

[Dunois]

The first question to me would be:

-Would Frangland try to seriously fight on in Southern France or rather try to redeploy as many French Forces to Corsica/Northern Africa?

A fighting retreat aimed at relocating as much manpower and equipment in North Africa is what is the aim of the high command will be. So expect fierce fighting in Southern France but ultimately, there is no way the area can hold forever against the German hordes.

- How long would it last until the German advance reaches the French Riviera?

Approximately four to five weeks.

- How succesful would any evacuation of French forces be?

Manpower wise it should be possible to evacuate close to half a million persons. Equipment wise the Army will loose a lot of heavy equipment, left behind or sacrificed to gain time. Some machine tools will be evacuated from the Toulouse aero factories, but do not expect these to churn out fighter aircraft in Algeria or in Britain.

- Could Corsica be held?

Corsica is relatively easy to defend due to its mountainous terrain and the fact that beaches suitable for landings are mainly concentrated in a single area. However that single area is in the east facing Italy. Expect landings to be hard due to Franco-British naval forces, so the easier way is through an airborne invasion. The similarities with Crete are obvious.
In fact in the France fight on timeline Operation Merkur takes place in Corsica and not in Crete.

- Would there be a puppet-regime in France à la Vichy? Could it reach the amount of legitimacy Vichy originally enjoyed due to the fact that "the traitors submitted to a British annexation of France and Petain (or another figurehead) was the only guarantee of French sovereignty"?

There will be a Quisling regime but its legitimacy will be lower because among other things it will never be voted in by the chambers like the Vichy regime was OTL.

I wonder if Greece would get into trouble if Italy were to be as tied up by the Allies. Maybe Churchill would manage to bring them into the Allied camp - we might therefore see a similar , but more prolonged campaign on the Balkans in 1941.

Expect action in Greece indeed .

 

[TheNordicBrit]

Just a little question (not sure if it's already been asked,) how much more fighting and resistance will there be in Mainland France?

If there's a sort of Vichy-esque how will the Free French face up to them? More resistance? Killing of important 'government' members? And also if Northern France is (as in OTL) taken in by the Germans then how will the resistance go there?

 

[Paul MacQ]

So the Germans this timeline are going to be fighting an extra 4-5 weeks, I am thinking with the resources they had might be longer there is some good defensive terrain in the South ( just Google Map it ) And limited Transport for the Germans 2 months might be more realistic if the French do not lose total fighting spirit.

Corsica has one aspect that will be interesting it is allot easier for the French to retreat aircraft to. A Mixed bag of MB152/155 D.520s and M.S.406’s say 100 or possibly more and some Offensive aircraft. While the parts last could cause a massive amount of Hurt to the Luftwaffe, More a mini Battle of Britain if the British are willing to risk a few Radar Equipped Destroyers as Piquet’s maybe even some early warning.

The Luftwaffe is going to be hurting so much more. Get the British to make the French hand over as many of the Luftwaffe crews as possible. Solders are one thing but play cards right and you can get a massive amount more trained French aircrew and Ground crew, a major shortfall for the British at this stage.

Will Corsica fall probably? But it is going to cost the Axis to get it. As a I side issue
France fighting on and the strain of Corsica having to be taken. I cannot see the Italians being so Stupid in Greece any time soon, they are going to have to help take out Corsica, and there navy is going to have to play its part ( i.e Risked ) when you have the French Fleet helping the Royal Navy. I know Musso is not wise, But no Greece anytime soon. Resources just will not be there like OTL

Also P36 from the US was starting to come up in numbers. Germans are going to have to come up with some hard choices. Corsica could become so much stronger for the Allies than Crete ever was,

Also some half forgotten Gems can come into there own like
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Maryland for 1940 a very nice plan. Italians will hate it as only fighters able to catch will be German.

4-5 weeks (still think 2 months) more fighting the wear and tear on the Germans is so much more without a break. They are going to need to take a longer break before the Battle of Britain. This for Britain is going to be much easier the Production rate of Spits and Hurricanes. Plus those weeks (month or more) without losses Britain would have young pilots with more airtime in there fighters. The Empire Flight training schools were just getting full swing. Thinks without lose and less wear the British could have about 5-6 Squadrons more front line in Britain,

Armour for Corsica might be a bit hard to come by

 

[Dunois]

Just a little question (not sure if it's already been asked,) how much more fighting and resistance will there be in Mainland France?

If there's a sort of Vichy-esque how will the Free French face up to them? More resistance? Killing of important 'government' members? And also if Northern France is (as in OTL) taken in by the Germans then how will the resistance go there?

Résistance will be higher than OTL for sure and start much earlier especially in Southern France whose mountains are ideal for guerilla warfare.

There will be no "Free French" per se, sinc ethe French government carries on the struggle within the Franco-British Union. This also mean that De Gaulle will be confined to a purely military role and may never attain political office.
The whole of France will be under German military occupation, so no "free zone" here either. As previously said there will be a Quisling type collaboration regime, whose power will however be much lower than the ones enjoyed by Vichy France and whose constitutional legitimacy will be non exsitant.

So the Germans this timeline are going to be fighting an extra 4-5 weeks, I am thinking with the resources they had might be longer there is some good defensive terrain in the South ( just Google Map it ) And limited Transport for the Germans 2 months might be more realistic if the French do not lose total fighting spirit.

Two months is a little bit too much in my opinion considering the atrocious disorganisation of the French Army on the 16th June. A lot of heavy equipment such as tanks is lost or destroyed along with artillery, trucks and the like. The Rhone Valley is easy to hold but expect Marseille to have fallen by the end of July. Places like Perpignan or Montpellier will last longer but not by much.

The Italian priorities will be different but you can nonetheless expect fighting in Greece at some point.

There will be a French participation in the Battle of Britain indeed, at least equivalent to OTL Polish participation.

 

[Astrodragon]

If the BoB happens in this TL, I think it would have different aims.

With the extended French resistance, there isnt going to be time to attempt SeaLion in 1940 before the autumn wetaher renders it impossible.

So a Luftwaffe attack would be, if done, an attempt to reduce the British by air alone. Not unrealistic, at that point in time all the AIr Marshalls thought this was feasable, it was the BoB that proved it couldnt be done in daylight, and the Blitz that showed Germany didnt have nearly the bomber power necessary.

The Luftwaffe are likely to suffer even more this time around. They wont have recovered a lot of their experienced pilots, the British have had more time to build up fighter numbers, and they'd almost certainly have more French pilots available as well (probably enough to make French Wings possible, which woudl ease the organisation problem somewhat over individual pilots or squadrons). And the later date (and corresponding worsening weather) meanas they will lose more pilots in the Channel as well.

 

[Hörnla]

Alternatives to Battle of Britain?

...but if even the French don't surrender - what is the point in flying over the Channel to simply fight around without an apparent strategic aim? If even the French vow to fight on, not even Hitler would expect the British to come to terms with the 3rd Reich simply by air-striking them.There is little sense in trying to destroy the RAF -for the moment- if no invasion is even imaginable; it would have to be done again and again.

 

[Astrodragon]

...but if even the French don't surrender - what is the point in flying over the Channel to simply fight around without an apparent strategic aim? If even the French vow to fight on, not even Hitler would expect the British to come to terms with the 3rd Reich simply by air-striking them.There is little sense in trying to destroy the RAF -for the moment- if no invasion is even imaginable; it would have to be done again and again.

because its the doctrine at this point in time among the air marshalls - all of them - that strategic bombing will defeat a country. The difference this time is that that will be the only objective, rather than any preparatory work for an invasion. It isnt going to work, but they think it will

 

[Dunois]

because its the doctrine at this point in time among the air marshalls - all of them - that strategic bombing will defeat a country. The difference this time is that that will be the only objective, rather than any preparatory work for an invasion. It isnt going to work, but they think it will

Indeed and Herman Goering was a staunch proponent of that theory and has a lot of illusions on the Luftwaffe capabilities as well (cf Stalingrad air resupply).

Concerning the TL itself, I plan to have the first formal update covering the evacuation of French personnel to North Africa and Britain. Expect another update soon after that on the workings of the Franco-British Union.

I will try to get the first update up and running by sunday, but I can't garantee anything yet due to a busy schedule. If anyone wants to contribute information and the like, feel free to contact me or to put it in here.

 

[Dunois]

Dear all!

Just to inform you folks the TL is not dead, as I have been thinking on it ever since the last post back in December.

If someone wants to help me writing part of it, they are more than welcome to step forward. I prefer not to formally start the TL itself until I refresh my knowledge of WW2 history, especially naval history wise. If you can recommand books or websites, feel free to.

As previously said, post WW2 will be extensively covered (perhaps more so than WW2 in fact) especially the political and constitutional aspects of the Franco-British Union. As most of you will know, most the welfare state policies put in place from 1945 onwards dates back from the war itself (Beveridge report, Tripartite comission and such). In this pretty much the same forces will be at work but with the following twists:
-There will be attempts at observing what the other country does and if best practise can be shared. This may lead to Union wise reforms, but more importantly in testing with the other dees with a view at larger scale implementation later (the French police might change drastically).
-Expect French politicans to play a part in the process, in that respect it is worth mentionning that France was divided in socialists, radicals and "conservatives". The radicals were fairly strong and this might in turn start changes in British politics. Anyone wants to make a guess at what I am thinking?
-The Labour and Socialist victory which happened OTL on both sides, may not happen here.
-The fate of the French and British Empires will be examined.

As a teaser these folks will play a very important role later in the TL:

Georges Mandel: Famous for his leadership of France during the post war period, rose to premiership of the Union in the late 1940s playing a key part in building the "Grande Society".

Enoch Powel: Famous for his speech from 1961 as a Minister in the Union government, would live to see his wish fullfilled many times over.

Albert Camus: Famous existentialist and then libertarian philosopher.

Alan Turing: Lived to a ripe old age of 94.

Marcel Dassault: Played an instrumental role in the creation of *CLASSIFIED* which became *CLASSIFIED* aerospace companies in the world.

Louis Armand: Engineer in chief for the HST project.