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In this alternative history scenario I invite you to discuss the outcome of the Great Northern War when the Swedish Empire was at the hight of its power in Northern Europe. I begin with a brief history leading up to our scenario, if you know the history between 1700 and 1709 you can just skip it.

"I have resolved never to start an unjust war but never to end a legitimate one except by defeating my enemies".
- Karl XII, Swedish King between 1697 - 1718, and the supreme commander of the Swedish Military.

Brief history leading up to the alternative timeline

The period begins in early 1700 the Swedish Empire is deliberately attacked by an attack alliance formed by the nations surrounding the empire which included Denmark-Norway, Electorate of Hanover, Electorate of Saxony, Kingdom of Prussia, Moldavia, Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Tsardom of Russia. The Swedish King Karl XII was only eighteen years old when war was declared but his father Karl XI had left him the entire Swedish war machine known as Caroleans, or Karoliner in Swedish, who was both battle hardened and modern for the time. Who were the Caroleans? The soldiers of the Swedish Imperial Army, a strictly disciplined and aggressive fighting force whose notable tactics echoed throughout Europe during the Great Northern War and decided the fate of the Russian Empire. The Caroleans had a greater reliance upon bayonets and the spirit of the offensive giving them their reputation of being invincible.

Thinking Karl as just a kid barely able to mount a horse the attack alliance declared war which was a fatal underestimate. In response he mobilized his Caroleans towards Denmark-Norway and ordered the siege of Copenhagen. A temporary alliance was formed between Great Britain and Sweden. A combined British and Dutch fleet with the help from the Swedish fleet carried out a bombardment of the city. Meanwhile the Swedes managed to outmaneuver the Danish fleet and landed an army near the capital. The young Karl XII was so eager to see battle he was the first to set foot on Danish soil until his generals pulled him back from the battle. Copenhagen fell within hours and Denmark-Norway was pushed out of the war entirely.

Karl only had a short time to glory in his triumph before he deployed his Caroleans east towards Swedish Estonia after Peter the Great of Russia laid siege to the city of Narva which a small garrison of 1,800 Swedes defended. On his way there Peter returned to Russia while leaving his almost 33,000 strong army surrounding Narva in the hope to starve them out. The relief force arrived in November 1700 consisting of 10,500 Caroleans who deployed on a hill overlooking the city. The Russians got aware of their presence but never attacked once again underestimating the Caroleans and continued to siege the city. A brutal blizzard covered the battlefield making the conditions very harsh for both sides. Suddenly Karl noticed the blizzard changed direction blowing straight at the Russian encampment. He saw the opportunity and ordered his army to advance. The Russians never noticed the Swedish attack until it was too late. The Caroleans broke through the Russian center creating chaos and panic in their lines sending them retreating across the Narva River Bridge which collapsed from the weight. This was and possibly will be Sweden's greatest military victory in history, Narva was relieved.

The victory at Narva sent the Tsardom of Russia into disrepair and it would be a long time before they waged war with the Swedish Empire again during the Great Northern War. Karl was not finished here however, instead of advancing into Russia he turned his army towards Poland to eliminate another major foe to the empire. It was in Poland Sweden carried out the very first pincer maneuver which would become crucial in wars to come in Europe. The invasion was successful and enabled Karl to to dethrone the Polish King Augustus II with a pro-Swedish king Stanislaw I four years later. However Augustus still resisted the occupation and was defeated a second time at the Battle of Fraustadt which was another decisive Swedish victory. There was finally peace and Poland renounced their alliance with Russia. Unfortunately the peace didn't last very long.

After the Swedish defeat of Poland the Caroleans was worn out and Peter saw the opportunity and begun taking back Swedish land in the Baltic provinces capturing a Swedish fort along the Neva River. Karl gave command to the Swedish General Adam Ludwig Lewenhaupt who was able to maintain control of most of the Baltic provinces. The occupation of the Swedish fort at the Neva River resulted in the construction of a ever larger fortress later to be known as Saint Petersburg. The Swedes raided the fortress numerous of times with amphibious landings, but the Russian fortifications held. This resulted in a Swedish blockade of the fort. No further attacks was made and Peter focused his attention elsewhere.

Meanwhile Karl was kept occupied waging war with Augustus a third time after Augustus took back Warsaw. Russia left Poland in 1706 after Poland renounced their alliance abandoning their artillery but managed to escape the pursuing Swedes. After years of fighting in Poland Karl managed to depose Augustus. Now a new threat came from the east. Meanwhile Karl had kept busy in Poland Peter had managed to recover and built a new army. As of this point Peter offered Karl peace and to retrocede every lost province to Sweden except Saint Petersburg to avoid another full-scale war which Peter knew he couldn't afford, Karl refused the offers. This begun the Swedish invasion of Russia with the goal to conquer Moscow.

This was one of the coldest winters in European history, a lesson other nations never learned, the Caroleans was slowed down and sapped by the cold weather and the Russian scorched earth tactics. It reached a point the main army was forced to abandon the invasion and turned south towards Ukraine. After gathering strength to face the Swedes, Peter finally met the Caroleans at the Ukranian city of Poltava where the fate of the Swedish Empire and Russia would be decided.

Here begins our alternative history timeline.

In our scenario Karl was never injured before the battle and never gave command to the Swedish Field Marshal Carl Gustav Rehnskiöld. Attending the battle personally Karl sent his 24,000 Caroleans to advance on the Russian artillery positions and outer redoubts, killing every Russian soldier inside them as they did in the real battle. The Swedish cavalery never got stuck dealing with Russian pockets and redoubts but instead got around the encampment cutting off any Russian attempts to flee. Now as Karl was in command of the attack no confusion erupted and the attack was well organized and the morale was strong as in Fraustadt and Narva. Seeing the unavoidable Peter would at this point surrender to avoid getting chased down by the Swedish cavalry. After the unconditional surrender Karl would show the Russians mercy as he did in Narva where most was allowed to go home. Peter would be put into custody or risk a revolution if he returned back to Russia after surrendering to the Swedish Empire.

At this point in 1709 the Caroleans would most likely occupy Poltava to rest and delay any further conflicts while awaiting reinforcements. But obviously Karl still had his ideas of marching towards Moscow and after the victory at Poltava where the majority of the new Russian army was defeated there would not be much resistance other than pockets of soldiers and militia, which Karl was used to after his conquest in Poland.

What would be the results after a decisive Swedish victory at Poltava? With Russia out of the picture the second attack alliance would most likely never be formed which led to the downfall of the Swedish Empire. Having pro-Swedish government in Poland and the Baltic provinces secured Sweden had formed a Baltic Sea Empire with total control of the waterfront.

The more interesting question is how Great Britain would react to the news. Either they declare war or continue their peace with Sweden allowing them to use the waters. If war however Sweden could turn to France who would benefit having the Swedish Empire as an ally. Since Sweden sided with Great Britain during the Napoleonic Wars it could most likely be the other way around if Great Britain were to fight for the Baltic Sea. These events would also avoid the Bender Incident altogether as Karl never had to go into exile in the Ottoman Empire. Instead an extended alliance with the Ottomans is a likely possibility to completely destroy the Russians.

Discuss the outcome leading up to the Napoleonic Wars end in 1815 when Sweden ceased being a militarized power in Europe.
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