They already returned Beijing to the Union of China, and have withdrawn to their coastal concession from Ryojun to Qingdao. And even under the Japanese occupation, they respected the Chinese residents and history of Beijing. There were no victory parades when the city was taken. No troops went on rampage. Jiang's portrait was removed from Tiananmen, but neither the Emperor's portrait nor that of Prince Konoe (who was prime minister at the time) replaced it. Japanese kempeitai also began cracking down on organized crime to cool approval from the locals.
The Sun, The Stars and The Sickle: Alt-WWII and a Tripolar Postwar World
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They already returned Beijing to the Union of China, and have withdrawn to their coastal concession from Ryojun to Qingdao. And even under the Japanese occupation, they respected the Chinese residents and history of Beijing. There were no victory parades when the city was taken. No troops went on rampage. Jiang's portrait was removed from Tiananmen, but neither the Emperor's portrait nor that of Prince Konoe (who was prime minister at the time) replaced it. Japanese kempeitai also began cracking down on organized crime to cool approval from the locals.
The coastal concession, from the Liaoning Peninsula to Tsingtao, in addition to Manchukuo and Mengjiang is what the Empire of Japan really wants. Not only does it feed the appetite for resources that the Home Islands generate, this territory also surrounds the Bohai Sea and the western seaboard of Korea.
With naval bases at Tsingtao and in Korea, it will be much easier to defend the myriad ports within.
Manchukuo is also used as a flag of convenience by many Japanese shipowners, with Andong as the most common home port. It is widely hoped that other international shipowners will follow suit.
With naval bases at Tsingtao and in Korea, it will be much easier to defend the myriad ports within.
Manchukuo is also used as a flag of convenience by many Japanese shipowners, with Andong as the most common home port. It is widely hoped that other international shipowners will follow suit.
What was the POD again? Because this reminds me of that Korean alt history movie "2009 lost memories"
The PoD here is 1922 with a different Washington Naval Treaty.
That movie sounds wild, I'll have to watch it!
In the movie the POD was some Japanese nationalist time travelers saving some guy called Ito Hirobumi from assassination, which is easier to influence than naval treaties. Presumably what follows is very similar to your timeline, though the jury is out on whether Germany will get nuked. Will there be a UN analogue for Japan to have a seat in the permanent security council in place of OTL China?
I will concede that time travel by Japanese ultranationalists is probably less hassle than a WNT with bigger and more ships. I'm tempted to make a joke about a gaisensha propaganda van as the Mystery Machine as well- but this has definitely piqued my interest.
Another matter requiring resolution- that of the British Army commander in China. It is...
General Claude Auchinleck.
"The Auk" is actually an Indian Army officer, but the stigma surrounding that detail is somewhat diminished by the pan-Imperial approach the British leadership has taken.
The British Army are themselves involved, committing V Corps, as well as armour and artillery to China.
Australia commits a division-sized element of the Australian Imperial Force to China as well.
The 2nd Canadian Division, under the young Major General Guy Simonds, a bold commander who has an incredible knack for irritating his superiors, is en route to Shanghai on yet another long voyage, perhaps due to Simonds' biting commentary pushing his politically astute superior, Harry Crerar over the edge.
In addition, South Africa has committed the 1st Brigade, under Brigadier Dan Pienaar.
*scratches head*
Auchinleck has something of a mixed record, so I can't really say how well he'll do.
Auchinleck has something of a mixed record, so I can't really say how well he'll do.
Much of The Auk's performance depends on his subordinates, whom he typically grants considerable latitude. If he can effectively manage Lt. Gen. Charles Allfrey, Maj. Gen. Simonds and Brig. Pienaar, his reputation in China might turn out quite well indeed.
Hopes for The Auk are high TTL, as just like OTL, he undertook a campaign in Iraq which removed the pro-Pact of Steel Prime Minister Rashad Ali.
Why was the short Iraqi campaign so valuable?
Oil from the Middle East is especially important TTL as it is the life blood for the Empire of Japan as well as Britain. As such, it cannot be allowed to be cut off or fall into enemy hands. As such, the oil convoys are some of the most heavily escorted in the war. Oversized ASW sweeps, and far cover by capital ships, including the modernized Hood serve to deter any raiders that may wish to score a prize.
There is one thing that Auchinleck is particularly pleased about- his particularly difficult subordinate, Major General Bernard L. Montgomery, will not be rejoining him in China. The Auk once said that he couldn't recall a time when he and Monty ever agreed on anything.
Yeah, from what I know Montgomery was something of a nut. He even pissed Eisenhower off, IIRC. To actually piss off the most diplomatic general in the entire US Army...yeah, he was a nut.
On the matter of Ike, Marshall and Roosevelt have recognized his organizational genius, and have decided that he is just the man for the job of liberating Europe from Nazi clutches. TTL, Patton is in China so there's one less difficult personality to put up with.
Monty's fate might be different TTL-with no North African campaign, he will not have a chance to shine quite so early, and thus not capture the attention of Alanbrooke, Chief of the General Staff quite so early either, which will no doubt hamper his chances of such rapid advancement.
I'm also not entirely uncertain that the Manila Gang wouldn't simply kidnap Monty and mail him to Chiang either.
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The Marmara Crisis- The Resolution
Excerpts from "The Tempest in a Teapot: A History of Conflict in and around the Black Sea". B. Rawlinson and S. Maryevych. University of Melbourne Press, 2017.
THE end of the Marmara Crisis was, in a surprise to many, a triumph of Italian diplomacy.
In Italy, the situation with Turkey had even drawn the ire of Mussolini, who had thus far distanced himself from the negotiations, bored by and unconcerned with the finer details. It was time to resolve the situation once and for all, in the eyes of the frustrated Duce.
The ships, rafted together to prevent the sinking of the substantially incomplete and barely seaworthy Sovetskaya Ukrainiya were not allowed to pass through the strait together, as the 1936 Montreux Convention granted Turkey the right to restrict the passage of foreign military vessels through the Strait. As such, the Turks prohibited more than one capital ship from transiting the Strait at any one time. This put Sovetskaya Ukrainiya in real danger of sinking, or worse- sabotage or an attack by the Pact of Steel seeking out easy pickings. Unsubstantiated rumors that the Turks had secret torpedo batteries on their banks did nothing to help ease the tension.
Stalin's response was a matter of grave concern as well- Ciano feared, above all, that Stalin would make threats to Turkey, leaving the Turks unfavourably disposed to the Soviet Union. Worse, there was the fear that Stalin may interpret the Turks' actions as favouring the Pact of Steel, which may have escalated as far as sanctions or embargoes, if not an outright declaration of war.
Since Italy needed the Soviets and the Turks to co-operate at least long enough to transfer the vessels, Count Ciano was dispatched to Ankara to mediate the dispute.
He took a conciliatory approach- he stressed that neither the Turks nor the Soviets were wrong in their arguments- in fact, they were both right.
Ciano conceded that the Turks did indeed have full sovereignty over the Strait, and as such, could restrict military vessels from passing through it. Ciano also conceded that it would be unwise for the Turks to abrogate sovereignty over the Strait to prevent such crises from arising again.
Ciano also supported the Soviet position that, as she was, Sovetskaya Ukrainiya was not an operational naval vessel. In fact, as it was, she was little more than her three keels, some hull plating, a basic superstructure, and a single engine and rudder. She was not a commissioned Soviet naval vessel, and would require years of work to be one. She carried no armament either. It was not a case of a temporary decommissioning or other such trickery to get around the Convention; she was simply too incomplete to be a threat. In any case, when the time came for the two vessels to re-enter the Black Sea, there would be no reason why they would not do so separately rather than together.
As such, Ciano argued, the treaty would not be abrogated by allowing Sovetskaya Ukrainiya to pass through the Strait, as she was so far from completion that she would not count as a capital ship, but an incomplete hulk being transferred for completion. An exception would thus not be required, since the no violation existed.
Ciano also proposed an alternative, ostensibly to placate the Turks. He suggested that if the Turks required that the vessels pass separately, that Sovetskaya Rossiya do so first, as she was in greater danger of sabotage. In the meantime, the Turks, at their own expense, would arrange an insurance policy for Sovetskaya Ukrainiya to quell Soviet concerns. If something were to happen to her, it would only be fair that the Turkish state compensate both the Soviets for the loss of their ship and the Italians for the loss of their contract, and as such, make both parties whole on their losses either through cash payments or trade concessions in lieu.
Naturally, the first option would be preferable, so, to sweeten the deal, Ciano suggested that the Turks would not be out of line to levy a fee for allowing a capital ship to pass with an additional hulk rafted to it- a fee that Italy would pay for the Soviets as a gesture of goodwill- but, of course, the fee would be far lower than the gains the Italians would receive for the work to be done.
After two tense days' deliberation, Turkish President Ismet Inonu gave his assent to allow the both Soviet ships to pass into the Sea of Marmara together. Sovetskaya Ukrainiya was deemed a "project vessel" rather than a capital ship, hence there was no abrogation of the Convention. As such a large, barely mobile vessel rafted to another one constituted a "navigational hazard", an undisclosed fee was levied on the Soviet Union for the passage of the vessels; Italy agreed to cover the fee levied on the Soviets.
As such, Turkey would retain her neutrality, and neither the Soviets nor the Turks escalated any disagreements they had with each other, although relations remained acrimonious.
THE end of the Marmara Crisis was, in a surprise to many, a triumph of Italian diplomacy.
In Italy, the situation with Turkey had even drawn the ire of Mussolini, who had thus far distanced himself from the negotiations, bored by and unconcerned with the finer details. It was time to resolve the situation once and for all, in the eyes of the frustrated Duce.
The ships, rafted together to prevent the sinking of the substantially incomplete and barely seaworthy Sovetskaya Ukrainiya were not allowed to pass through the strait together, as the 1936 Montreux Convention granted Turkey the right to restrict the passage of foreign military vessels through the Strait. As such, the Turks prohibited more than one capital ship from transiting the Strait at any one time. This put Sovetskaya Ukrainiya in real danger of sinking, or worse- sabotage or an attack by the Pact of Steel seeking out easy pickings. Unsubstantiated rumors that the Turks had secret torpedo batteries on their banks did nothing to help ease the tension.
Stalin's response was a matter of grave concern as well- Ciano feared, above all, that Stalin would make threats to Turkey, leaving the Turks unfavourably disposed to the Soviet Union. Worse, there was the fear that Stalin may interpret the Turks' actions as favouring the Pact of Steel, which may have escalated as far as sanctions or embargoes, if not an outright declaration of war.
Since Italy needed the Soviets and the Turks to co-operate at least long enough to transfer the vessels, Count Ciano was dispatched to Ankara to mediate the dispute.
He took a conciliatory approach- he stressed that neither the Turks nor the Soviets were wrong in their arguments- in fact, they were both right.
Ciano conceded that the Turks did indeed have full sovereignty over the Strait, and as such, could restrict military vessels from passing through it. Ciano also conceded that it would be unwise for the Turks to abrogate sovereignty over the Strait to prevent such crises from arising again.
Ciano also supported the Soviet position that, as she was, Sovetskaya Ukrainiya was not an operational naval vessel. In fact, as it was, she was little more than her three keels, some hull plating, a basic superstructure, and a single engine and rudder. She was not a commissioned Soviet naval vessel, and would require years of work to be one. She carried no armament either. It was not a case of a temporary decommissioning or other such trickery to get around the Convention; she was simply too incomplete to be a threat. In any case, when the time came for the two vessels to re-enter the Black Sea, there would be no reason why they would not do so separately rather than together.
As such, Ciano argued, the treaty would not be abrogated by allowing Sovetskaya Ukrainiya to pass through the Strait, as she was so far from completion that she would not count as a capital ship, but an incomplete hulk being transferred for completion. An exception would thus not be required, since the no violation existed.
Ciano also proposed an alternative, ostensibly to placate the Turks. He suggested that if the Turks required that the vessels pass separately, that Sovetskaya Rossiya do so first, as she was in greater danger of sabotage. In the meantime, the Turks, at their own expense, would arrange an insurance policy for Sovetskaya Ukrainiya to quell Soviet concerns. If something were to happen to her, it would only be fair that the Turkish state compensate both the Soviets for the loss of their ship and the Italians for the loss of their contract, and as such, make both parties whole on their losses either through cash payments or trade concessions in lieu.
Naturally, the first option would be preferable, so, to sweeten the deal, Ciano suggested that the Turks would not be out of line to levy a fee for allowing a capital ship to pass with an additional hulk rafted to it- a fee that Italy would pay for the Soviets as a gesture of goodwill- but, of course, the fee would be far lower than the gains the Italians would receive for the work to be done.
After two tense days' deliberation, Turkish President Ismet Inonu gave his assent to allow the both Soviet ships to pass into the Sea of Marmara together. Sovetskaya Ukrainiya was deemed a "project vessel" rather than a capital ship, hence there was no abrogation of the Convention. As such a large, barely mobile vessel rafted to another one constituted a "navigational hazard", an undisclosed fee was levied on the Soviet Union for the passage of the vessels; Italy agreed to cover the fee levied on the Soviets.
As such, Turkey would retain her neutrality, and neither the Soviets nor the Turks escalated any disagreements they had with each other, although relations remained acrimonious.
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Indeed it should! Two thoughts enter, one sentence leaves!
Italian social republic? Difficult to believe that without the collapse of the state, Benny will be able to oust the king without being killed by the army
Good catch, I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that...
That's two egregious errors and the last time I bang out an update while on hold with an HVAC company for another blown-out sensor...
With the Marmara Crisis resolved, this puts us in early November, 1941.
There are a few major hotbeds that will be the focus for the next few updates.
While the Four Winds Offensive was a failure, it did prove useful in one major regard- it showed where the Allied defences are the weakest. Tsingtao and Hong Kong did not yield, and Shanghai was captured. However, a considerable incursion was made into Burma.
The National Army, even in the later part of the rainy season, managed to push into several Burmese states, before their advance was repulsed by the arrival of Yamashita's 2nd China Expeditionary Army. However, the Anglo-Japanese forces are outnumbered, and October and November mark the end of the monsoon season and the beginning of the cooler, drier season that lasts until about March.
By dispatching additional armies from Kunming, Chiang can then attempt to capture Burma, and then threaten Singapore once more, as well as attempt to open a corridor to support the Indian National Army to further inconvenience Britain.
Then there's the matter of French Vietnam, an invasion of which will displace even more Allied forces.
On top of all this, the Americans won't do anything to help the Imperial Bloc do anything to retain their colonies- thus potentially driving a wedge through the Alliance.
In the Soviet Union, Wehrmacht Army Groups B and C are now within a few hundred kilometres of Moscow, and D and E continue to drive south towards the oilfields of Maikop and Grozny. The fall rains and mud have slowed but not stopped the advance. The situation is looking increasingly desperate, despite the considerable Soviet manpower reserves.
There are a few major hotbeds that will be the focus for the next few updates.
While the Four Winds Offensive was a failure, it did prove useful in one major regard- it showed where the Allied defences are the weakest. Tsingtao and Hong Kong did not yield, and Shanghai was captured. However, a considerable incursion was made into Burma.
The National Army, even in the later part of the rainy season, managed to push into several Burmese states, before their advance was repulsed by the arrival of Yamashita's 2nd China Expeditionary Army. However, the Anglo-Japanese forces are outnumbered, and October and November mark the end of the monsoon season and the beginning of the cooler, drier season that lasts until about March.
By dispatching additional armies from Kunming, Chiang can then attempt to capture Burma, and then threaten Singapore once more, as well as attempt to open a corridor to support the Indian National Army to further inconvenience Britain.
Then there's the matter of French Vietnam, an invasion of which will displace even more Allied forces.
On top of all this, the Americans won't do anything to help the Imperial Bloc do anything to retain their colonies- thus potentially driving a wedge through the Alliance.
In the Soviet Union, Wehrmacht Army Groups B and C are now within a few hundred kilometres of Moscow, and D and E continue to drive south towards the oilfields of Maikop and Grozny. The fall rains and mud have slowed but not stopped the advance. The situation is looking increasingly desperate, despite the considerable Soviet manpower reserves.
So why do in alternate history Nazis end up dominating the world? Because I don't think that storyline will be likely here since WW2 for Germany can be summed in one image.
Also I fully expected the invasion of France to be repelled, how much worse for Germany was it than OTL?
Also I fully expected the invasion of France to be repelled, how much worse for Germany was it than OTL?
They could opt for a siege, starving out the enemy, along with precision bombing and artillery bombardment.
It probably helps that Count Terauchi himself is the genial sort, even by Western standards.
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