The Sun of Rocroi TL- A better Grand Condé

[Blaze]

n the case of a reconquest of Portugal by the Spaniards, how does the Portuguese colonial empire evolve? Will the Spaniards continue to abandon it? Other European powers will nibble it like Holland in Brazil and Angola? The Braganzas fled 160 years earlier in their colony (we can imagine it for Charles I of England in North America, why not the same thing in South America with João IV)?
I still have no idea about the butterflies in England but could we see the English replacing France and supporting Portugal in its independence?

Not sure, Dutch Brazil was basically recovered mostly by brazilian forces, who then did the same with Angola, so their reconquest should occur as OTL. The biggest losses should be in the Indian Ocean, even so, the most important portuguese losses in the East, Ceylon and Malacca occured after 1640, so there should be no difference in that regard. However continuing the Iberian Union still provides ample opportunity for the enemies of Spain to nibble portuguese colonies and it will depend on what the spanish monarch will do. If they use this opportunity to invest more on the colonial empire they could easily mantain it and eliminate one of the main causes of portuguese discontent towards the Union.

I don´t think a 1808 escape to Brazil can be replicated this soon, the colony still has nowhere near the wealth it gained later after the discovery of gold in th 18th century and one of the most important part of the colony is as of 1643 still occupied by the Dutch.

Unlikely, England should be in the midst of it´s civil wars to care too much about the continent right now

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Today is the month-niversary of my TL!

Not sure, Dutch Brazil was basically recovered mostly by brazilian forces, who then did the same with Angola, so their reconquest should occur as OTL. The biggest losses should be in the Indian Ocean, even so, the most important portuguese losses in the East, Ceylon and Malacca occured after 1640, so there should be no difference in that regard. However continuing the Iberian Union still provides ample opportunity for the enemies of Spain to nibble portuguese colonies and it will depend on what the spanish monarch will do. If they use this opportunity to invest more on the colonial empire they could easily mantain it and eliminate one of the main causes of portuguese discontent towards the Union.

I don´t think a 1808 escape to Brazil can be replicated this soon, the colony still has nowhere near the wealth it gained later after the discovery of gold in th 18th century and one of the most important part of the colony is as of 1643 still occupied by the Dutch.

Unlikely, England should be in the midst of it´s civil wars to care too much about the continent right now

If the War of the Spanish Succession arrives in much the same way as the OTL but this time with the Iberian Union still in place, how will the Portuguese react to the establishment of a Bourbon King?

 

[Blaze]

Today is the month-niversary of my TL!


If the War of the Spanish Succession arrives in much the same way as the OTL but this time with the Iberian Union still in place, how will the Portuguese react to the establishment of a Bourbon King?

Either push for independence or support an Habsburg, like Aragon in OTL

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Hey, everybody. I've finished the first part of my timeline, which was about the Twenty-Five Years' War. I have several ideas for the next part, but I don't know the order in which I will tackle them.
So I leave you the choice of the next chapter by making a strawpoll. You have one week to vote. Of course all the chapters will be dealt with but in the order that the straw poll will have given.
Feel free to participate in the votes.

Next chapters of "The Sun of Rocroi". - Online Poll - StrawPoll

What's your opinion? Vote now: The Domestic and Foreign Policy of France, The Domestic and Foreign Policy of the United Provinces, The Domestic and Foreign Policy of Sweden, The Dom...

strawpoll.com

 

[UnaiB]

Will the prince Balthasar Charles of Spain survive ITTL? Will the English Civil War be different?

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Will the prince Balthasar Charles of Spain survive ITTL? Will the English Civil War be different?

For Balthasar Charles of Spain I'm not sure of his survival, I'm still thinking about it.
For the English Civil War I have absolutely no idea. It's a period I don't know enough about and I have to study it.
Do you have any ideas to share with me?

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

For the English Civil War I have absolutely no idea. It's a period I don't know enough about and I have to study it.
Do you have any ideas to share with me?

@Comte de Dordogne

One idea I'm thinking of is that Charles I wins the FIrst English Civil War, marches on London purging his enemies leaving him with a Rump Royalist Parliament. But he dies from wound sustained in battle, or is perhaps poisoned making him out to be a Royalist Martyr. Thus his young son Charles I who was quite charismatic and in otl was known as the Merry King with his court of parties and other such stuff, could now likely arrange for a compromise to swiftly end the Civil War. You could have the Royalists here develop the New Model Army which was a England's own standing army. One of the reasons why Charles I in the first Civil War had much support from the nobles was because many of them began to fear that Parliament would start lording over them as well. This alternate English form of Absolutism could work by working in conjunction with the larger landed Aristocrats to keep power. This was how Kings in Hungary were largely able to get away without really listening to the Diet of Hungary which basically made that Kingdom a Constitutional Aristocracy. Though here while Parliament would be preserved, it would be an adversarial Organ at best, and perhaps functionally reduced to perhaps registering the King's edicts in regards to taxation like a rubber stamp much like what the French Parlements and Estates General became. Though this could eventually backfire like it did for the late Bourbons where the nobles used it as a legal means to oppose the King's attempt to to centralize and take their power.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

@Comte de Dordogne

One idea I'm thinking of is that Charles I wins the FIrst English Civil War, marches on London purging his enemies leaving him with a Rump Royalist Parliament. But he dies from wound sustained in battle, or is perhaps poisoned making him out to be a Royalist Martyr. Thus his young son Charles I who was quite charismatic and in otl was known as the Merry King with his court of parties and other such stuff, could now likely arrange for a compromise to swiftly end the Civil War. You could have the Royalists here develop the New Model Army which was a England's own standing army. One of the reasons why Charles I in the first Civil War had much support from the nobles was because many of them began to fear that Parliament would start lording over them as well. This alternate English form of Absolutism could work by working in conjunction with the larger landed Aristocrats to keep power. This was how Kings in Hungary were largely able to get away without really listening to the Diet of Hungary which basically made that Kingdom a Constitutional Aristocracy. Though here while Parliament would be preserved, it would be an adversarial Organ at best, and perhaps functionally reduced to perhaps registering the King's edicts in regards to taxation like a rubber stamp much like what the French Parlements and Estates General became. Though this could eventually backfire like it did for the late Bourbons where the nobles used it as a legal means to oppose the King's attempt to to centralize and take their power.

I'm not set for the British Isles yet, but I'll try to write some pretty interesting things about it, yes.

 

[EmmettMcFly55]

Didn't the Dutch have plans to divide the Southern Netherlands with France in case of total victory? They will not be happy with France taking it all. A French Antwerp in particular will terrify both the merchants of Amsterdam and stadtholder Frederick Henry.

 

[alexmilman]

Didn't the Dutch have plans to divide the Southern Netherlands with France in case of total victory? They will not be happy with France taking it all. A French Antwerp in particular will terrify both the merchants of Amsterdam and stadtholder Frederick Henry.

This is an interesting question. In OTL by the Treaty of Munster (1648) the Sheldt was closed to the navigation, which pretty much destroyed Antwerp as a trade center. So it would be up to @Comte de Dordogne to figure out if this is the case in his TL (🤪). The main difference is, of course, in the fact that France is much more successful than Spain in OTL and may (or may not) care about the Dutch happiness. My guess is that, with the French and allied armies almost encircling the Provinces (IIRC, the troops of Bernard of Weimar and Wallenstein are somewhere on the Rhine by the time the war is over) the Dutch would be forced to be more accommodating and keep the Sheldt open. There are additional options: (a) France not being by a contemporary definition, a “trade nation” does not give, for a while, a blip about Antwerp’s trade and when the problem is eventually figured out there is a later war or diplomatic pressure to remove at adjust the border accordingly and (b) there is an immediate war between France and the Provinces to resolve the issue.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

Didn't the Dutch have plans to divide the Southern Netherlands with France in case of total victory? They will not be happy with France taking it all. A French Antwerp in particular will terrify both the merchants of Amsterdam and stadtholder Frederick Henry.

This is an interesting question. In OTL by the Treaty of Munster (1648) the Sheldt was closed to the navigation, which pretty much destroyed Antwerp as a trade center. So it would be up to @Comte de Dordogne to figure out if this is the case in his TL (🤪). The main difference is, of course, in the fact that France is much more successful than Spain in OTL and may (or may not) care about the Dutch happiness. My guess is that, with the French and allied armies almost encircling the Provinces (IIRC, the troops of Bernard of Weimar and Wallenstein are somewhere on the Rhine by the time the war is over) the Dutch would be forced to be more accommodating and keep the Sheldt open. There are additional options: (a) France not being by a contemporary definition, a “trade nation” does not give, for a while, a blip about Antwerp’s trade and when the problem is eventually figured out there is a later war or diplomatic pressure to remove at adjust the border accordingly and (b) there is an immediate war between France and the Provinces to resolve the issue.

View attachment 539946

Indeed the relations between France and the United Provinces will be very special without the Spanish Netherlands acting as a buffer.
It is also important to know that butterflies fell on the Dutch front during the Twenty-five Years' War. I have not yet spoken about this because I am saving it for my next chapters (on Holland and Spain) but for example, as you may have read, Maastricht only fell very late into Dutch hands.
ITTL the Dutch were not in a strong position to negotiate treaties in their favour. The presence of Wallenstein on the Rhine, the French ally who helped them take back Maastricht, and Condé who took the whole of the Spanish Netherlands almost alone, did not allow them to enforce the sharing agreements. I will talk about the more specific agreements between Holland and post-war France in my next chapters.
Moreover, I read that the Dutch Republic was not motivated to expand, preferring to turn to trade.

 

[alexmilman]

Indeed the relations between France and the United Provinces will be very special without the Spanish Netherlands acting as a buffer.
It is also important to know that butterflies fell on the Dutch front during the Twenty-five Years' War.

And for the Dutch this would be what? 75 Years War? Of course, they still have resources for a continued fighting but their situation is not too good and they may lose more that Antwerp. They are getting their independence confirmed by Spain and this is a great bonus. A continued war may result in a border by the Rhine.

ITTL the Dutch were not in a strong position to negotiate treaties in their favour. The presence of Wallenstein on the Rhine, the French ally who helped them take back Maastricht, and Condé who took the whole of the Spanish Netherlands almost alone, did not allow them to enforce the sharing agreements.

In 1643 Turenne (in OTL) was preparing a new army in France. Of course, this was after the French army under Marshal Rantzau was destroyed in the Battle of Tuttlingen (on the Danube), which does not happen in your TL. However, it is reasonable to at least to assume that while the war is going on the French would keep strengthening forces with the intention to operate on the Rhine: you are seemingly discounting the Imperial, Spanish, Bavarian, and Lorrainer troops operating there and on the Danube. So, assuming that the imperial forces are out of the game, the Dutch situation is even worse because there is one more army to deal with.

I will talk about the more specific agreements between Holland and post-war France in my next chapters.
Moreover, I read that the Dutch Republic was not motivated to expand, preferring to turn to trade.

Remainder: in your TL Conde took Antwerp so there is no reason for France to give it back.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

And for the Dutch this would be what? 75 Years War? Of course, they still have resources for a continued fighting but their situation is not too good and they may lose more that Antwerp. They are getting their independence confirmed by Spain and this is a great bonus. A continued war may result in a border by the Rhine.

Indeed they got what they wanted. And even if they would have liked to take more Spanish Netherlands they are not in a position to take anything from France, even more so with this Condé who could break their necks.

In 1643 Turenne (in OTL) was preparing a new army in France. Of course, this was after the French army under Marshal Rantzau was destroyed in the Battle of Tuttlingen (on the Danube), which does not happen in your TL. However, it is reasonable to at least to assume that while the war is going on the French would keep strengthening forces with the intention to operate on the Rhine: you are seemingly discounting the Imperial, Spanish, Bavarian, and Lorrainer troops operating there and on the Danube. So, assuming that the imperial forces are out of the game, the Dutch situation is even worse because there is one more army to deal with.

I have not detailed the last phase of the war, but to put it simply, the imperials are in Swabia, south of the Rhine valley, Hesse and the Spanish Netherlands. The French have Wallenstein on the Upper Rhine (which is fighting with the Spanish for not being cut off from France), Saxon-Weimar in Lorraine and Alsace and Condé in Flanders.
In the last phases of the war the imperials are mostly occupied with Sweden with the exception of Spain which has to keep the road to the Spanish Netherlands open. With the defeat of the Spanish the French were in Antwerp, the Dutch in Maastricht, Wallenstein in Luxembourg and. In addition, the French begin to head for the rest of the Rhine to support Saxon-Weimar (and what pushes Vienna to Peace). So yes, the United Provinces are surrounded by the armies of their ally.

Remainder: in your TL Conde took Antwerp so there is no reason for France to give it back.

There is no reason for them to give up Antwerp. However, as you said above, the negotiations could be about trade on the Scheldt and in Antwerp.

 

[UnaiB]

France and Sweden could sign a secret pact to divide Wallenstein's dominions after his death. France would annex the Duchy of Luxembourg (and possibly the Prince-Bishopric of Liège as well) while Sweden would annex the Duchy of Mecklenburg.

 

[alexmilman]

France and Sweden could sign a secret pact to divide Wallenstein's dominions after his death. France would annex the Duchy of Luxembourg (and possibly the Prince-Bishopric of Liège as well) while Sweden would annex the Duchy of Mecklenburg.

Wallenstein had a surviving daughter and there is another branch of his family so it would be realistically to expect in this TL that provisions are made to guarantee the inheritance. BTW, the duchies of Mecklenburg being within the HRE, Sweden can’t just annex them without the repercussions. The same goes for France annexing Liege and Luxembourg: can cause a war with a broad German coalition. But the need, in both cases, is not quite there. Mecklenburg without its major port is not too valuable and Luxembourg ruled by the dynasty which is fully dependent upon France does not worth a war either.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

France and Sweden could sign a secret pact to divide Wallenstein's dominions after his death. France would annex the Duchy of Luxembourg (and possibly the Prince-Bishopric of Liège as well) while Sweden would annex the Duchy of Mecklenburg.

Wallenstein had a surviving daughter and there is another branch of his family so it would be realistically to expect in this TL that provisions are made to guarantee the inheritance. BTW, the duchies of Mecklenburg being within the HRE, Sweden can’t just annex them without the repercussions. The same goes for France annexing Liege and Luxembourg: can cause a war with a broad German coalition. But the need, in both cases, is not quite there. Mecklenburg without its major port is not too valuable and Luxembourg ruled by the dynasty which is fully dependent upon France does not worth a war either.

the territories possessed by Wallenstein correspond to those that the French and the Swedes were not able to take from the Holy Roman Empire. Moreover, as @alexmilman fatal remark a war is not worth it because Wallenstein is in favour of the French-Swedish and has a large family that will be able to take over his inheritance when he dies, and the Holy Roman Empire will not let it happen.
We will speak again about Wallenstein and the Holy Empire in the chapter devoted to the HRE.

 

[lotrian]

I just read everything, and I really like it !
I don't know much about that period and it's really interesting to read about it.
I've seen you're seeking constructive criticism, so here's my little contribution : I think your TL will benefit from being divided in shorter chapters, focused on one theme. For example the peace conference could have been separated from the Rocroi battle.
That's all, keep up the good work please!

 

[alexmilman]

the territories possessed by Wallenstein correspond to those that the French and the Swedes were not able to take from the Holy Roman Empire. Moreover, as @alexmilman fatal remark a war is not worth it because Wallenstein is in favour of the French-Swedish and has a large family that will be able to take over his inheritance when he dies, and the Holy Roman Empire will not let it happen.
We will speak again about Wallenstein and the Holy Empire in the chapter devoted to the HRE.

Which basically leaves only a question of Antwerp or rather freedom of navigation by the Scheldt. IMO, it would be logical for the French to have a final settlement that leaves them with all area on the left bank of the river (see the map in the earlier post), thus guaranteeing the freedom of navigation beyond just a treaty, while giving the Dutch as a “compensation” the isolated piece of a territory (with Horst) on the North. Depending on how much the imperial side is ready to defend the Liege, a corridor connecting Maastricht to the test of the Provinces (OTOH, probably this would not be an issue because the city was under the joined Dutch-Bishopric administration) be added. BTW, what about Cambray? In OTL France got it in 1677.

And the obvious question is impact of getting the well-developed Spanish Netherlands (in the early XVII they upon the experienced economic growth with the linen industry surpassing the former levels and agriculture greatly improving)? Would they be squeezed as the rest of France under Louis XIV (or, in the short term by Mazarin government)?

 

[Palantir]

Liege

If I remember correctly, OTL the bisopric of Liège was a close allies of France during the period.
If France plays it right, they can satellise it gradually.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

I just read everything, and I really like it !
I don't know much about that period and it's really interesting to read about it.
I've seen you're seeking constructive criticism, so here's my little contribution : I think your TL will benefit from being divided in shorter chapters, focused on one theme. For example the peace conference could have been separated from the Rocroi battle.
That's all, keep up the good work please!

I'm glad you like it!
I hope that the footnotes in my chapters allow you to distinguish between what comes from fiction and what is historically true.
Do you think my chapters are too long? I'm quite surprised because I find them too short. I'll think about that.

Which basically leaves only a question of Antwerp or rather freedom of navigation by the Scheldt. IMO, it would be logical for the French to have a final settlement that leaves them with all area on the left bank of the river (see the map in the earlier post), thus guaranteeing the freedom of navigation beyond just a treaty, while giving the Dutch as a “compensation” the isolated piece of a territory (with Horst) on the North. Depending on how much the imperial side is ready to defend the Liege, a corridor connecting Maastricht to the test of the Provinces (OTOH, probably this would not be an issue because the city was under the joined Dutch-Bishopric administration) be added. BTW, what about Cambray? In OTL France got it in 1677.

And the obvious question is impact of getting the well-developed Spanish Netherlands (in the early XVII they upon the experienced economic growth with the linen industry surpassing the former levels and agriculture greatly improving)? Would they be squeezed as the rest of France under Louis XIV (or, in the short term by Mazarin government)?

It seems to me that on the map I published the Netherlands got the Horst enclave. France got everything between Arras and Antwerp, including Cambrai.
I am still thinking about the impact of the Spanish Netherlands on France. This is an area I don't know enough about.

If I remember correctly, OTL the bisopric of Liège was a close allies of France during the period.
If France plays it right, they can satellise it gradually.

Interesting, I didn't know. Do you have any connection to this? Was it in the same vein as Paris' relationship with the bishoprics of Trier and Mainz?