The Sun Never Rises: If The Confederacy Won

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by PGSBHurricane, Nov 28, 2019.

  1. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    I was originally not going to post this at all until I completed it but then I gave in and decided to post parts of it as I went along. This is a revised version of a timeline I have on the Alternate History Wiki. So here it goes.
    Note: I acknowledge this is simply an exercise in alternate history and while I may have been inspired by Turtledove at times, I've been trying to avoid many of the same cliches he ran into.

    Part 1: Victory in Maryland

    By the middle of the summer of 1862, United States President Abraham Lincoln had completed the Emancipation Proclamation (a document that declared the freedom for all Confederate slaves). The plan was to issue it later that year and for it to take effect on January 1, 1863. At first, crushing the Confederacy seemed like an easy task, as the Union had a much larger population and industry to go with it. But after several unexpected and demoralizing losses, including both Battles of Bull Run, it became clear the Confederacy would not go down without a fight. Because of the seemingly desperate timing, Lincoln’s cabinet feared to release the Emancipation Proclamation. Lincoln decided to wait until another decisive Union victory to issue it.
    Meanwhile, the midterm elections of November 1862 were coming up, and things were looking highly uncertain for the Republican Party. Frustrated with the course of the war and Lincoln’s policies that addressed it, Democrats attempted to launch an anti-war campaign in order to win control of Congress. As all of this unfolded, Confederate General Robert E. Lee also recognized dissent among Lincoln’s ranks. He hoped that a Confederate battle victory on Union soil might further erode the support towards Lincoln and his cause. In Europe, France and Great Britain were watching the conflict from the sidelines. As both countries were enduring cotton shortages at this time, while the South was gaining the upper hand, they considered recognizing the Confederacy and supporting its claim to independence.
    After Lee thwarted the plans of Union General George B. McClellan to lay siege on Richmond in the spring and summer of 1862, a highly inept and demoralized McClellan retreated. Hoping to take advantage of McClellan's mental and emotional state, Lee chose to push his army across the Potomac into Frederick, Maryland, later that summer. On September 9, 1862, General Lee issued Special Order 191. This plan defined his “Maryland Campaign." The plan was to enter northern territories that bordered the South (mostly in Maryland and West Virginia) and divide his army by sending them to Boonsboro and Hagerstown in Maryland, and Harper’s Ferry and Martinsburg in West Virginia. After the Confederates, on September 13, abandoned their Frederick campsite around Frederick and McClellan’s army moved in, they left no trace of Special Order behind. Thus, Union Soldiers were not able to discover these plans.
    McClellan remained in hot pursuit of the Lee until they gave up September 17, 1862, as the Confederates seemed to have vanished without any visible trace. By the end of the month, much of Maryland and western Virginia laid in Confederate hands. Ultimately, the Emancipation Proclamation was never issued, and the Confederate slaves would remain enslaved indefinitely, with the future bleak and uncertain.
     
  2. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Part 2 is coming soon.
     
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  3. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Part 2: Gettysburg and Washington

    Lasting from November 24 to November 26, in 1862, the Battle of Gettysburg was perhaps the bloodiest in the entire war, 51,000 soldiers from both armies were killed, wounded, captured or missing in the three-day battle. After the successful Maryland Campaign earlier in the fall, Robert E. Lee led his high-spirited Army of Northern Virginia into the Gettsyburg Campaign, with the intent to collect supplies from the abundant Pennsylvania farmlands and weaken Northern appetite for war. Union Major Gen. George Gordon Meade moved northward with the Union Army of the Potamic in hot pursuit. The two armies collided to the northwest of Gettsyburg on November 24, 1862. Union cavalry under Brigade General John Buford slowed the Confederate advance until the Union 1st and 11th Corps arrived. Confederate reinforcements under generals A.P. Hill and Richard Ewell also arrived. Over 30,000 Confederates ultimately defeated 20,000 Yankees, who retreated to Cemetery Hill and Culp's Hill just to the south of town.

    On the second day, the Union defended the hills and ridges south of Gettysburg with around 90,000 soldiers with 70,000 Confederate soldiers wrapped around them. That afternoon, Lee launched a massive assault on the Union left flank at Devil's Den, Little Round Top, the Wheatfield, the Peach Orchard, and Cemetery Ridge. On the Union right, full-scale assaults took place at Culp's Hill and East Cemetery Hill. Although the Confederates gained ground, the Union was in a stronger position to win than its opposition. It was the third day, November 26, that decided the outcome once and for all. The main event was none other than a dramatic infantry assault by 12,000 Confederates against the opposing ends of the Union line on Cemetery Ridge. Both sides sustained significant losses, although enough of the Confederacy soldiers survived to claim victory at Gettysburg. Meade led his army on a torturous retreat away from Pennsylvania to partake in the Thanksgiving Holiday.

    With Gettsysburg won, France via Napoleon III and Britain under Queen Victoria officially recognized the independence of the CSA the next day. On December 6, French monarch Napolean Boneparte III and British Prime Minister Henry John Temple secretly extended diplomatic recognition to Richmond and Confederate President Jefferson Davis and they immediately entered the War for Southern Secession on the side of the Confederates. In a last-ditch effort to get more manpower on its side, Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Procolomation on December 22 and it would go into effect on March 1, 1863. Regardless, it was a case of too little, too late as the CSA universally considered the Proclamation to be void. Not to mention that most CSA slaveholders refused to give up their slaves and the majority of the runaway slaves were caught and severely punished.

    During the winter of 1863, when fighting officially was suspended due to the weather, extensive British Naval power broke the Union blockade of Southern cotton. The ultimate destination for the war to be won was the financial center of slavery in the Union before secession broke out: New York City. For the CSA, it was the race for New York that would decide the war. The battle commenced on April 24, 1863, not long after the winter recess ended. For the next three weeks, the Confederacy, Britain, and France held New York under siege. That said, support for the Confederacy was almost as strong in New York City as any city in the South due to its role in the domestic slave trade. Thus, many New Yorkers did not mind this occupation. All the essential commercial buildings and hubs such as New York Harbor were captured. On May 15, the Union forces finally surrendered, marking the end of the fighting that would later be known as the War for Southern Secession. Both sides signed an armistice on June 6, 1863, but no peace treaty came until the following year.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019 at 3:00 PM
  4. Odinson The Thunderer

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    How did the Confederates reach New York City? Even with Washington falling to the southern army, that's a lot of ground to fight across.
     
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  5. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    It's almost six months between the fall of Washington DC and the battle for New York. It only takes about four days to get there on foot. There were most likely some minor battles in between on the way to New York before and after the winter recess with the camps in New Jersey. I never bothered writing about them because they were more or less filler.
    To be honest, with the entry of the British and French, it makes things easier for the Confederates. Only part of them are in New York, the rest are along the Mississippi River fighting Union troops or near Tennessee and Virginia where most of the fighting in OTL war took place. I'm not a war historian so take this with a grain of salt. What's more important in this is the consequences of a Confederate Victory on a local and global scale.
     
  6. Odinson The Thunderer

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    Ah, I see now. I didn't realize that it was that big a time span.
     
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  7. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Working on Part 3 now. Will likely publish it tomorrow.
     
  8. [totally a legit person] [totally not an bot]

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    This seems like it could be a very great timeline, I'll be watching this.
     
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  9. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Part 3: The Treaty of Richmond

    The Confederate Congress signed the final version of the peace treaty at Richmond on February 12, 1864. In the previous weeks, in November and December of 1863, the Union, Confederacy, Britain, and France, as represented by Abraham Lincoln, Jefferson Davis, Henry John Temple, and Napolean Bonaparte III respectively, negotiated in the White House of the Confederacy, which was also located in Richmond, Virginia. The primary terms that the Confederacy demanded from the Union with British and French assistance were the following: 1) The Confederacy shall annex claimed the Territories of Arizona and Indian Territory, 2) The Confederacy shall add the states of Kentucky and Missouri with the Confederate governments in exile, 3) The split of West Virginia shall be considered illegal in accordance to the Confederate Constitution and thus re-incorporated as part of the state of Virginia, 4) The Confederacy shall annex Washington DC as its capital.

    The US agreed to the first and second, and third terms with little to no hesitation. The third was one of two major headaches, though. Lincoln, Seward, and other Union representatives objected sending West Virginia back into Confederate hands as it "willingly and legally broke from its mother state in order to stay with the Union." But, Lincoln was willing to scrap plans to add sixteen new counties to West Virginia since those counties were overwhelmingly pro-Confederate. However, the fourth condition was very problematic in the eyes of the Union. Lincoln and Union representatives harshly objected to this demand and threatened to walk out of negotiations entirely. However, the British and French compromised on behalf of the Confederacy and proposed that Washington DC become a free city to be neutral from both the CSA and the USA. Resultantly, Washington could not be used as the capital city of either country. Subsequently, The United States relocated its capital to Philadelphia while the Confederacy maintained Richmond.

    The British and French proposed one last stipulation to the Treaty. It said Britain and France would maintain a good partnership with the Confederacy as long as it did not re-open the Atlantic slave trade. If it dared tried to, then the clause made it possible for the British and French to suspend business indefinitely with the CSA at their discretion. On February 29, 1864, the United States government and Confederate States government exchanged their Congressionally approved and ratified versions of the Treaty of Philadelphia, formally completing the process of Southern independence from the Union. The War for Southern Secession finally came to an official close.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019 at 1:43 PM
  10. Bytor Well-Known Member

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    Well, that's quite the bold timeline you got there.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2019
  11. Odinson The Thunderer

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    Do you hear that?

    It's the death kneel of the Republican Party and Lincoln's political future. I almost expect him to be assassinated by a Union soldier
     
  12. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Oh, expect a ton of major plot twists and shakeups in this next update. Which will probably be uploaded tomorrow. Could Lincoln and the Republican Party be killed off in TTL? Who knows.
     
  13. Tanner151 War Commander

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    Dang, that is a massive defeat. Can we get a map?

    The Confederates are in a very strong position as long as they don’t mess up their alliance with Britain and France. This may cause the U.S. to become hyper-militant, with Day of Remembrance and peacetime rationing as seen in Timeline-191/Southern Victory.

    What are the casualties in this war? OTL Civil War saw over 600,000 die. Was this war as bloody, bloodier or not as bloody?
     
  14. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    1) Here's the map. Just ignore everything not in red or green.

    Confederacy Map.png

    2) More recent estimates suggest that there were possibly 800,000-1 million casualties in OTL. And in TTL, it only lasts for about half as long. So maybe 300,000-500,000 casualties.

    3) I plan to have the Confederacy eventually collapse under its own weight. Although how it gets to the point of collapse is still being planned.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019 at 5:43 PM
  15. Seleukeia Well-Known Member

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    I try not to hate on other people's work on this forum, since it is their business to create what they want and form timelines around what interests them. But this timeline is just a disaster.

    First off, the "no Special Order 191" point of divergence is ok, it's a pretty common Civil War POD although a rather boring one imo. And personally I dislike the way it is used. I feel as if Lee was itching for a fight in Maryland during September 1862 and this has him withdraw after... capturing Harpers Ferry? Very, and I mean VERY out of character for him to do such a thing. This is the same man who ordered Pickett's Charge; he is not walking back across the Potomac without a battle.

    Next, the disappearance of the Army of the Potomac into thin air during October 1862, where I assume it will reappear somewhere in Germany during the Thirty Years' War, the result being that Lee just... walks in and besieges Washington D.C. with nobody to stop him! Guess that explained why he left Maryland, cause he wasn't going to get his battle anyway. Great that things can go so well for 'Ol Bobby here!

    After that, the entrance of Britain and France into an alliance with the Confederate States. Can we talk about the fact that Napoleon III has already launched his Mexican disaster by the point they enter the war, and thus the entrance of France into two insane American adventures, which will probably lead to massive public dissent in the most revolution-prone nation in Europe? Not that it seems out of Nap's character, just saying. Britain's entrance as well is quite surprising to me. Even before the ACW, they had began supplanting some of the Confederate cotton with cotton produced in the Raj and Egypt, which was much less expensive to import to Britain itself. Additionally, there is the fact that Palmerston, who you have not replaced with someone else as PM in this timeline, did not call for war with DC over the Trent Affair. He would certainly not do so again here in this insanely unprovoked, out of nowhere declaration of war on the seemingly mentally incapacitated Lincoln.

    The Union still has an army?

    Also, during the Treaty of Richmond I love how Lincoln, Seward and the whole cabinet completely submit to giving up the Border States, including LINCOLN'S OWN BIRTHPLACE, as well as accepting the cessation of Washington DC as their capital and moving it to Philadelphia with barely any resistance. But when you have no army to enforce your position what are you even going to do anyway, I guess. Also, why would the Radical Republican Congress ever accept that treaty?

    The writing also needs substantial improvement, it is very uncomplicated and is composed solely of the actual events that happened instead of something like a discussion between Lee and a French commander during their Siege of New York, or of Lincoln panicking to Mary Todd about the disaster he's led his nation into.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019 at 8:15 AM
  16. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    For your first point, your mileage may vary. This is the second time I’m saying this but I’m not a war historian nor do I claim that I am one. Here, the Union basically struggles to catch up to the Confederates, only to conclude that they’ve more or less vanished without a trace. The Confederacy is on the offensive here. And the Union isn’t super competent, kind of like how it actually was before the Emancipation Proclamation was issued, giving them a definitive cause to rally around that isn’t for the sake of preserving the Union. That cause doesn’t exist here.

    I will go back and address your second point. I kind of overlooked that.

    As far as Britain and France siding with the Confederacy goes, this is not unique to me at all. This goes back to at least Turtledove (20+ years). Napoleon III wants Southern cotton badly but can’t enter without Britain. Hence why they enter when the war looks like it will probably end with a CSA victory, and the siege of DC made that probable. Britain bites the bullet and enters because the recognized that the CSA winning the war was inevitable so why not aid their claim to independence? Plus, unlike Egypt and India, there is a strong Anglo-Saxon heritage in the CSA. And wasn’t Temple PM of Britain during the American Civil War IOTL?

    Haha, the Union still has an army. A beat up and weak one but still existent.

    In the negotiations, Lincoln is outnumbered 3-to-1 and he just lost a war so he has very little leverage. As far as Kentucky and Missouri go, they both had Confederate “in-exile” governments in our timeline so it isn’t that big of a shock. Maryland is left to a referendum. With DC, it’s a free city that’s neither with the Union or Confederacy. Both sides can use it, just not as their capital. And wouldn’t maintaining DC as the Union capital be a bad idea anyway since the Confederacy is right there and it would would essentially devolve into a city of spies? That’s why I moved the Union capital to Philadelphia and the Confederacy keeps Richmond as its capital.

    While Kentucky might have been Lincoln’s birthplace, he grew up in Illinois and based his entire political career from that state. And this will be mentioned in the next part (which will be published either today or tomorrow) but the Radical Republican Congress doesn’t exist as they Republicans get steamrolled in the mid-term elections in 1862.

    I’m honestly not a big fan of that kind of writing style when it comes to alternate history. That’s why I keep it to a description of the actual events. Comes down to personal preference, really.

    While I probably won’t change your mind, I hope this provides some insight.

    -PGSBHurricane
     
  17. Seleukeia Well-Known Member

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    Napoleon III had designs on Egypt; the Suez Canal was created by a French company during his reign. You could easily have him decide against invading Mexico and plan instead to attempt to outdo his uncle by conquering Egypt as a French colony, which would give him direct control of the cotton trade to France rather than having to import it across the Atlantic.

    No, the British don't recognize the CSA will obviously win; they instead join the rest of the civilized world in a mass condemnation of the Confederate government for its use of dark magic and necromancy to cause all of the soldiers in both the Army of the Potomac and the Washington garrison to drop dead. Also, that "Anglo-Saxon lineage", what does that matter? Why would they buy cotton from a foreign country when they can just make their own without having to put it through import duties. And Palmerston was, which is... exactly my point. He didn't declare war OTL when he had an actual casus belli to do so and was perfectly capable of winning, so why would he do so a year later because the opportunity just falls into his lap? Just decides on a whim that he will go to war with the USA, and Parliament, Queen Victoria, and everyone else in Britain just go along with it.

    I can see the Confederacy annexing Kentucky, but Missouri is a long border to defend. I would expect it to be split in half along the Missouri River, the bottom portion going to the CSA, as it is a much more defensible border. Also, the Union did everything in their power to defend Washington IOTL, and I could easily see them, in an ASB scenario such as this, deciding to turn DC into an "Army's Graveyard" if you know what I mean. Even keeps them right along the border to intervene and reconquista the South when it devolves into anarchy, as you said would happen.

    What causes the Radical Republicans to get steamrolled? What causes this sudden shift of public support to the Democrats? The siege of Washington? Well, when the Confederates get repulsed as they almost certainly would be in a realistic scenario here, leading to some 50% casualties to the Army of Northern Virginia, if anything the landslide will be won by the Radicals.

    But it's still not interesting. You could at least describe how some of the battles progress, how they go and stuff, but instead it is as undescriptive and poorly-written as possible. There's nothing to pull the reader in here.
     
  18. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Britain and France actually were contemplating recognizing the Confederacy. France moreso tbh. The only reason they didn’t was because the CSA never came close enough to winning. They might think of the CSA slave system as backwards but everyone knows it wouldn’t last forever plus economics trumps emotions almost every time.

    As I said earlier, I plan on changing the status of DC so that even though it does fall, more effort is put into defending it. At the end of the war, neither side ends up with it. So there’s that.

    I was going to split Missouri in half but ironically the most support for slavery and Confederacy was in the northern part of the state along the Missouri River so I figured it would be have to be all or nothing.

    Okay, maybe not “steamrolled” but the progress of the war is gonna definitely cost Republicans Congress here.

    As for writing style, I never found that of Timeline 191 to be that interesting even though I enjoy the books. So that comes down to individual taste. And it’s only in the early development stages, so of course not much interesting is going on.
     
  19. Seleukeia Well-Known Member

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    They were yes, but the scenario you put up that leads to them recognizing the Confederacy is ASB. There's no way the Confederates could have ever put Washington under siege, it's just not possible. You should recognize the fact that both Confederate invasions of the North were failures, and center your timeline on Lee successfully using attrition and annihilation to break the minds of the Union government and cause them to just let the South go. It's the only way they could have won, and if the Confederacy does it well, which I honestly think it could have, Britain and France would recognize it, and perhaps even pull a Navarino on the Union fleet to break the blockade of the Confederacy and reopen the Trans-Atlantic cotton trade, but I cannot see them go any further as I would certainly expect Lincoln to request an armistice in the aftermath of such a disaster.

    Anyway, even if the Confederates win their independence, I would still expect the Confederate government not to want to annex Maryland; the Potomac would be a very advantageous river border for them to have, and I would expect Davis to push for the US-CS border to be along the Potomac, Ohio and Missouri Rivers; he would want to be able to keep Yankee troops on the other side of the rivers to prevent them from advancing into his territory much easier in a potential second war. Of course, Davis may still want Maryland as a Confederate state anyway, which would make my point here moot.

    About Missouri, the Missouri River Basin voted primarily for the Unionist John Bell in the 1860 election, which clearly indicates their preference against secession. On the other hand, many counties in the Southernmost third of Missouri voted for Breckinridge, the Southern Democrat candidate. These regions would be the nucleus of the new Missouri I propose.

    Also, why does Jeff Davis so adamantly demand that DC becomes a free city? This would seem to be a very contentious debate that would satisfy neither side. If I were the Confederate President during negotiations over a treaty to end the Civil War, I would forgo the free city proposal, and instead demand massive economic reparations from the North in order to fund Davis' planned economic reconstruction (yeah, I know) of the South, as its economy would be absolutely devasted from having to hold up the weight the war would bring bearing down on it. This A) brings money into Southern coffers after the war and B) removes the need to get loans from European countries that the South would have to pay back later; in this scenario, the South would not need to pay the Union back, as they won the money fair and square.
     
  20. PGSBHurricane Well-Known Member

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    Part 4: The Aftermath of the Union

    In the spring of 1864, disaster struck the United States. The Great Panic of 1864 hit the country hard. It was the worst economic disaster for the Union since the Panic of 1837. Part of the cause was massive borrowing and relying on paper notes or greenbacks in the form of Demand Notes, issued in 1861–1862, and United States Notes issued in 1862–1863. After the War for Southern Secession, not only was the US government unable to repay its loans to itself, it found itself less and less able to pay war reparations to the Confederacy. By the spring of 1864, confidence in the New York Stock Exchange dropped like a rock, and the economy sank into a harsh recession. The West Coast was affected the hardest as it was effectively cut off from the east until the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad at Promontory Summit Utah on May 10, 1869. Food Riots took place all across the USA, especially in major cities such as Boston, New York, and San Francisco.

    This was one of two nails in the coffin for the Republican Party for the next several years. The other came in the form of the assassination of USA President Abraham Lincoln in mid-August 1864. It was about nine o’clock in the evening, and Lincoln was alone while riding his horse slowly on the road in the countryside in Maryland, just outside of Washington DC. He was traveling back to the United State’s Soldier’s Home. That night, a rifle was shot from approximately fifty yards away. Old Abe, his horse, was startled. Lincoln’s horse, took off as soon as it heard the gunshot. Lincoln lost control of the steed and fell off, giving himself a concussion. It was later discovered that the bullet hit Lincoln in the back of his head. Both of these contributed to his death that occurred only minutes later. It was only at about 11 o’clock that evening that Private John W. Nichols discovered something wrong. The next day, he went searching for Lincoln and found his dead body on the side of the road. The identity of the assassin would not be discovered for at least another century.

    With the president now dead, Vice President Hannibal Hamlin was sworn in as president in his place. Hamlin was ultimately the Republican nominee heading into the presidential election of 1864. The Democrats, on the other hand, gained momentum starting in the 1862 mid-terms as they won both chambers of Congress and did not appear to be slowing down any time soon. Former General George McClellan was the initial front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but many of his constituents refused to accept a disgraced general as their nominee. Instead, former Connecticut governor Thomas Seymour was chosen as the Democrat nominee. In the general election, Seymour won every state except for Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. After the disaster, from the perspective of the Republicans, that was the 1864 presidential election. The Republican Party quietly disbanded. The moderates joined forces with the Democrats while the reaming half to two-thirds re-formed the Whig Party. This enabled what essentially amounted to a Democratic chokehold on government for the next several years.

    With Britain and France now as enemies, an isolated USA needed someone else to turn to. The answer came in 1867 in the form of Russia. Before British and French entry into the War for Southern Secession, Russia had considered openly siding the Union. But their rivals’ entry into the War meant that the cause was lost. Russia had an interest in Alaska since 1725, as it was rich in natural resources and sparsely inhabited. By the early 1800s, however, the St. Petersburg-centered Russian Empire lacked the financial resources to support significant settlements or military presence along the North American Pacific coast of North America. There were never more than 400 Russian settlers in Alaska at any given time. Its defeat in the Crimean War further reduced Russian interest in Alaska. In 1859, Russia offered to sell Alaska to the United States in order to off-set Russia’s arch-rival in the Great Game: Great Britain, who was in control of Canada at the time. The United States was delayed by the War and Russia by the rather violent transition from serfdom, so no offer came onto the table in 1859. Eight years later, on March 30, 1867, the Russian Minister to Washington, Edouard de Stoeckl, noticed that the economy of the United States was beginning to recover from the War and offered Alaska for $7.2 million or two cents per acre. The Senate approved the Treaty of purchase on April 9 with a narrow majority. The Whigs were mostly opposed to the Treaty, while Democrats in the Senate embraced it. President Thomas Seymour signed the Treaty on May 28. Finally, Alaska was officially transferred to the United States on October 18, 1867. This purchase ended Russia’s presence in North America but began a long-lasting friendship between Russia and the USA.

    Note: I am now looking for an editor or two to assist me with correcting Part 2 as it appears to be rather too lopsided in favor of the Confederates. I want to keep Part 1 as is, just perhaps a different Part 2 that is less ASB in nature. New York City will likely be eliminated but I'm still considering keeping a battle in Washington DC as the CSA in OTL came pretty close to capturing it without British or French support (see the battle of Fort Stevens). I've already began to make changes in Part 3.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019 at 11:13 PM