The Sudeten War: History of the World after an Alternate 1938

The AA defense was probably the weakest part of our army back then. While there were several batteries with around a dozen guns each, these were often quite old (the 90 mm version), there were the somewhat modern 83,5 mm, which would honestly be better used against tanks though (they were quite similiar to german 88 mm). In some cases the AA was quite usable (mostly in Prague), but there were not many reserve pieces. There were all in all 350 actual tanks (mostly LT 34 and LT35) and some 70 tankettes (comparable to German Panzer I). All the tanks were equiped with cannon, and outside of Panzer III, none of the German tanks could pierce their frontal armour (meanwhile, Panzer I and II could be pierced with machine guns from the sides and by just about any CZS cannon)

Honestly, Germany might not actually be capable of achieving parity. Considering that at least some of their 48 divisions will have to be moved against France. Meanwhile, the CZS has 1 250 000 men in 42 divisions and border "regiments", who can relly on mountainous terrain, several rivers and fortifications. And Germany doesn't have the Czechoslovak arsenal which it had against Poland of course. As for moral collapsing, yeah thats not happening. Considering the strong pro-war demonstrations around CZS in september and the high quality of training and officer caders, Czechoslovak army should be quite capable to fight untill the bitter end, if necessary.

By the late.october the weather will be becoming extremely unsuited for large scale aerial warfare and by the beginning of November, it would be outright highly risky (it seems there were rather rainy days at the end of October and it only got worse by beginning of November, with only a few clear days). And from what I remember, there were not large amounts of ammunition reserves for Luftwaffe, with some claiming that they had at most a month (though I read about this some time ago, so it might not be true, or only partially true). Honestly, the problem for the Germans will be fuel. If the French can cut off German oil supply, combined with the fact that Romania will likely side with its allies and might quite well embargoe Germany, it would be interesting to see just how long the Germans can keep themself supplied.


As for this beginning, I quite like it. Factually correct and well written. Will be interesting to see which direction this conflict will go.
Thanks for those additional precisions. How common was the powerful 15mm ZB machinegun? I assume it would easily penetrate the majority of German armor (in fact many Pz IV and Pz IIIs only had 14.5/16.5mm at the time too). The Pz III itself is probably not a major issue as the models the Germans had in October 1938 were very unreliable and very rare anyway. Apparently the Germans only had some 280 Pz IVs in service in September 1939, probably far less a year earlier. The German 20mm might be able to defeat the rather brittle Czech armor at very short ranges, but it's nowhere near a wonder weapon.

Also, if I recall Czechoslovakia had a lot of forests that could cover the movement of ground forces, so in theory the Czechoslovaks should be much less vulnerable against air attacks during movement than the Poles were.

Edit: Turns out the 15mm never got adopted by the Czechs, as it performed poorly in early trials and the Oerlikon 20 was chosen instead. It was still in testing as of October 1938...
 
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To point out: Poland is also a likely enemy of Czechslovakia. After WWI there was some fighting for Teschen wich the czech have won. In 1938 Poland annexed parts of Czechslovakia.
A wiki link to it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Czechoslovak_border_conflicts

I do not wish to be overly rosy in assessment of Polish-Czechoslovak relations: there was mutual loathing. For the Czechoslovaks, it had a class and religious element—Poland an aristocratic Catholic country not unlike the Hapsburgs from which they’d just won independence. For the Poles, Czechs were regarded as cowards, Russophiles, and generally as pampered dogs who didn’t know how to fight and would roll over at any opportunity. This attitude in fact persisted to 1968–for at least some Poles, the invasion then was a chance for the Czechs to get it for once. And, of course, the backstab during the Polish-Soviet war. Furthermore, both countries regarded the other as a non-viable state that only existed due to French goodwill.

BUT!

Poland’s government understood that Germany was not a friend. They did not want to mobilize against Germany for Prague, but at the beginning of summer, 1938, Beck was explicit (to his underlings) that, if France fought Germany, Poland would also, to maintain the 1921 treaty—even if that meant fighting alongside the Czechs. Realpolitik mattered more. Indeed, that very realpolitik was part of why Cieszyn was seized IOTL—Beck wanted to send the message that Poland, unlike Czechoslovakia, was an important country that wouldn’t have its borders dictated by a conference. The treaty with France was worth more than Zaolzie.

EDIT: A Soviet invasion of Poland would, of course, throw a wrench in these considerations.
 
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I do not wish to be overly rosy in assessment of Polish-Czechoslovak relations: there was mutual loathing. For the Czechoslovaks, it had a class and religious element—Poland an aristocratic Catholic country not unlike the Hapsburgs from which they’d just won independence. For the Poles, Czechs were regarded as cowards, Russophiles, and generally as pampered dogs who didn’t know how to fight and would roll over at any opportunity. This attitude in fact persisted to 1968–for at least some Poles, the invasion then was a chance for the Czechs to get it for once. And, of course, the backstab during the Polish-Soviet war. Furthermore, both countries regarded the other as a non-viable state that only existed due to French goodwill.

BUT!

Poland’s government understood that Germany was not a friend. They did not want to mobilize against Germany for Prague, but at the beginning of summer, 1938, Beck was explicit (to his underlings) that, if France fought Germany, Poland would also, to maintain the 1921 treaty—even if that meant fighting alongside the Czechs. Realpolitik mattered more. Indeed, that very realpolitik was part of why Cieszyn was seized IOTL—Beck wanted to send the message that Poland, unlike Czechoslovakia, was an important country that wouldn’t have its borders dictated by a conference. The treaty with France was worth more than Zaolzie.
Wow! I knew about the backstab and the border conflicts but had no idea they "liked" each other this much generally.

As for the rest: you most likely know much more about it than me so I accept your assesment.
 

marathag

Banned
Wow! I knew about the backstab and the border conflicts but had no idea they "liked" each other this much generally
Most of the Ex-AustroHungarian States were far more worried on what Hungary was doing, until Hitler in 1938 with the Anschluss
 
Most of the Ex-AustroHungarian States were far more worried on what Hungary was doing, until Hitler in 1938 with the Anschluss
Even more of Habsburgs. In 1934, Benes openly declared that he would prefer the annexation of Austria by Germany over Habsburg restoration, later on in, I believe, 1938 famously declaring "Better Hitler then Habsburg". General Sergei Ingr said in 1935 that: "We have no idea of the German battle plans, or their troop distribution. Instead we know exactly with whom each Austrian archduke has been meeting, or who was having dinner with Zita. I believe our intelligence is the most foolish in the world." (It should be said that this was later improved, and CZS intelligence proved quite capable, even getting the German attack plan)
Thanks for those additional precisions. How common was the powerful 15mm ZB machinegun? I assume it would easily penetrate the majority of German armor (in fact many Pz IV and Pz IIIs only had 14.5/16.5mm at the time too). The Pz III itself is probably not a major issue as the models the Germans had in October 1938 were very unreliable and very rare anyway. Apparently the Germans only had some 280 Pz IVs in service in September 1939, probably far less a year earlier. The German 20mm might be able to defeat the rather brittle Czech armor at very short ranges, but it's nowhere near a wonder weapon.

Also, if I recall Czechoslovakia had a lot of forests that could cover the movement of ground forces, so in theory the Czechoslovaks should be much less vulnerable against air attacks during movement than the Poles were.

Edit: Turns out the 15mm never got adopted by the Czechs, as it performed poorly in early trials and the Oerlikon 20 was chosen instead. It was still in testing as of October 1938...
You would be more likely to see ZB vz37, which was used in tanks and often in field. The German Panzer IV were at that point only the made A and B versions, which amounted to less then a 100 tanks, while Panzer III had not yet begun mass production.

Yeah, Bohemia is full of forests and mountain regions. I would know, had quite a few trips and falls in some of them. Compared to Poland, Czechoslovakia is worse in just about every way in terms of terrain, which while partially concentrated in the border regions, is often enough quite large deeper in. Trying to use blitzkrieg here would be rather hard and interesting to see.
I do not wish to be overly rosy in assessment of Polish-Czechoslovak relations: there was mutual loathing. For the Czechoslovaks, it had a class and religious element—Poland an aristocratic Catholic country not unlike the Hapsburgs from which they’d just won independence. For the Poles, Czechs were regarded as cowards, Russophiles, and generally as pampered dogs who didn’t know how to fight and would roll over at any opportunity. This attitude in fact persisted to 1968–for at least some Poles, the invasion then was a chance for the Czechs to get it for once. And, of course, the backstab during the Polish-Soviet war. Furthermore, both countries regarded the other as a non-viable state that only existed due to French goodwill.

BUT!

Poland’s government understood that Germany was not a friend. They did not want to mobilize against Germany for Prague, but at the beginning of summer, 1938, Beck was explicit (to his underlings) that, if France fought Germany, Poland would also, to maintain the 1921 treaty—even if that meant fighting alongside the Czechs. Realpolitik mattered more. Indeed, that very realpolitik was part of why Cieszyn was seized IOTL—Beck wanted to send the message that Poland, unlike Czechoslovakia, was an important country that wouldn’t have its borders dictated by a conference. The treaty with France was worth more than Zaolzie.

EDIT: A Soviet invasion of Poland would, of course, throw a wrench in these considerations.
I would replace loathing with barely held on leash hatred, but otherwise yeah. The abillity of Masaryk and Benes to anger just about every neighbour of ours is honestly pretty fascinating. And every single one of our minorities. And a sizeable part of army. And the right wing. And part of the left. Actually, the fact that Czechoslovakia survived two decades is a bit of a miracle, and its complete failure nothing suprising. As a certain Czech noblewoman said: "It was created by treason and God didn't like it".

In the end it all depends on France. If they joined in, then Poland is likely to at least stay neutral. If Czechoslovakia is alone, they might attack, though that would present an excellent opportunity to Stalin. If the USSR supports Czechoslovakia, but not France............ then it can go in a lot of ways, though this scenario is unlikely, as USSR millitary intervention was reliant on France entering first.
 
Chapter II: Course to War, September 1938.
And the war begins.

Chapter II: Course to War, September 1938.

Litvinov had a scheduled meeting with department heads on Tuesday September 13th, but he couldn’t get to his office in Moscow because his car wouldn’t start. With nothing to do, Litvinov phoned Stalin and said “we absolutely have to do something about the Czechoslovak situation and stop German fascist aggression.” Stalin responded that he was interested in hearing Litvinov’s propositions and would send a car over to fetch him that evening.

Litvinov was taken to Stalin’s dacha in the town of Kuntsevo, the true centre of power of the Soviet Union: located in a densely wooded birch forest, its defences included a double-perimeter fence, camouflaged 30 millimetre anti-aircraft guns, and a security force of three hundred NKVD special troops. The grounds included lemon and apple trees, a rose garden, a small pond, and a watermelon patch which Stalin liked to cultivate. There was also a sports ground for playing gorodki. Litvinov was taken through the rectangular dining room decorated with images of Lenin and Gorky – where Stalin would have meetings and late night dinners with the politburo – to the study that “the boss” seldom left and where he would receive foreign guests in the future.

During the evening hours of Tuesday September 13th 1938, Litvinov explained to Stalin his conviction that the Soviet Union should support Prague, a legitimate move given the Czechoslovak-Soviet Treaty of Alliance that was in place. More specifically, he proposed that the Soviet Union should first publicly declare it would see any German annexation of territory agreed to by Czechoslovakia under diplomatic pressure and without its prior consent as an act of unprovoked aggression. This would compel the USSR to live up to its agreement to come to Czechoslovakia’s aid and he believed that this would subsequently encourage France and Britain to address Germany more sternly as they’d want to avoid being put to shame in the diplomatic arena and in public opinion. After all, how would it appear if the two leading Western powers abandoned an ally in Eastern Europe in the face of German threats and left her rescue up to the Russian bear? A subsequent counterproposal would be a neutral League of Nations inspection how much of Berlin’s allegations, if any, were true. If Germany rejected this and if there was a war after all, it would be a short one that would keep Germany contained, with perhaps consequences for the stability of the Nazi regime. In short, this would revive the policy of collective security.

Stalin agreed with the plans in principle, though he put his own opportunistic spin on it that he didn’t tell Litvinov about: he would attempt to sabotage the appeasement policy by openly siding with Prague. If this resulted in a wider European war – which Stalin considered likely, given that the other choice was geopolitical irrelevance – then France and Britain would bear the brunt of the fighting as the Soviet Union didn’t directly border Germany anywhere. He hoped that this would keep Germany, Britain and France busy and exhaust them, allowing them to expand his sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. He estimated there was a good chance of this happening given that, although German rearmament was incomplete, British and French rearmament wasn’t complete either. He estimated a war would last a year, maybe two, during which no-one would have the means to deal with him. A strong USSR undamaged by war would stand to gain with the three major powers too weakened by war to consider challenging it.

On September 15th, two days after the meeting between Stalin and Litvinov at Kuntsevo, the Soviet foreign ministry issued a communique that was also published on the frontpage of Pravda. It said that the USSR would view a German annexation of the Sudetenland region a groundless, indefensible act of aggression, even if Czechoslovakia appeared to agree under diplomatic pressure. As an alternative, Moscow proposed League of Nations observers to ascertain how much truth there was to the German allegations of atrocities. If anything of the sort proved to be true, a next step could be autonomy for the Sudeten Germans under League of Nations supervision. If Czechoslovakia could make improvements in its treatment of its German minority, if this was deemed necessary to begin with, this could also be done under the auspices of the League of Nations. This way, the rights of the Sudeten Germans would be improved within Czechoslovakia, making an annexation unnecessary. This crucially meant the country would keep its fortified border regions.

While Czechoslovakia was informed by the Soviet ambassador in Prague several hours beforehand, Moscow’s announcement came as a surprise to Berlin, London and Paris. Chamberlain arrived in Germany that same day to meet with Hitler on the Obersalzberg at his Alpine chalet, the Berghof. Hitler emphasized that the Sudeten Germans had to be allowed the right to exercise national self-determination and be able to join Germany. Despite recent events, Hitler insisted on having this discussion and tried to provoke Chamberlain into explicitly stating whether he was in favour of or opposed to the national self-determination of the Sudeten Germans. He couldn’t goad the British Prime Minister into answering that question directly.

Instead, Chamberlain declared that the Soviet intervention on Prague’s behalf “[has] changed the situation like a bull in a china shop and necessitates a new approach, which requires that I further discuss the situation with my cabinet. We also need to await the response of the Czech government and factor it into the course to be taken.” Intuitively Hitler had gauged the Soviet action correctly and responded: “The Soviet move changes nothing. They won’t intervene, not meaningfully anyway. Stalin only intends to create conflict between us to strengthen his own position. An international war over the matter is what he’s after as this benefits him. It’ll enable him to Bolshevize everything east of the Vistula and north of the Turkish Straits. You surely don’t want this, do you, Herr Chamberlain?”

Chamberlain nonetheless returned to London, reporting that nothing meaningful had been agreed to and then went on to discuss the Soviet proposals with his cabinet. While in hindsight Hitler had correctly guessed what Stalin’s true opportunistic motivations were, Chamberlain considered the Führer’s appraisal of them grounded in unbased cynicism. Believing Hitler was truly concerned with the wellbeing of the Sudeten Germans, he considered League of Nations oversight an excellent solution. The following day, September 16th, French Prime Minister Daladier arrived in London and he agreed that the Soviet proposals had merit, but said he had to discuss this with his government. After their meeting adjourned, Daladier returned home and Paris adopted the same position as London did.

In the meantime, Hitler was irate about the Soviet intervention as he was certain the puny democratic governments of Britain and France would’ve just given him what he wanted without Moscow’s meddling. On the other hand, however, he’d already been severely vexed by the initial Anglo-French attempts to mediate as he’d hoped to turn the affair into “a splendid little war.” This was the perfect excuse to unilaterally abandon the talks which, in Hitler’s words, were going to lead to “a preservation of the status quo under the League of Nations, with only minor changes to our advantage and more Soviet interference.” He knew perfectly well there were no atrocities being committed against Sudeten Germans, which meant the League of Nations wouldn’t legitimize an annexation.

Hitler resolved that, no matter what variation of the proposed diplomatic solution the French and British agreed on, Germany would go to war on October 1st (he was not interested in the slightest in proposals for the federalization of Czechoslovakia, which would’ve given the Sudeten Germans a lot of autonomy). He couldn’t be persuaded to follow a non-violent course anymore by anyone. Even his second hand man Hermann Goering couldn’t talk him out of it anymore. This was the only way to get what Hitler wanted and he didn’t see a serious risk in it, disbelieving Britain, France and the Soviet Union would fight over a German annexation of the Sudetenland region. Last minute compromise solutions and proposals for further talks coming in from the British and French embassies confirmed Hitler’s derisive opinion on London and Paris.

He ignored their repeated attempts to resume negotiations and left the job of keeping up appearances to his Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop, who kept assuring French ambassador André François-Poncet and British ambassador Sir Nevile Meyrick Henderson that “the Führer is studiously reading your proposals and will take his time to deal with them appropriately. He appreciates your desire for a peaceful solution.” What Hitler told Mussolini during a meeting at the Brenner Pass came closer to revealing his true intentions: “If we take what we want by force the French and British will not act, especially if you and I march together. Years of peace have made them complacent and weak. Stalin will think twice before going to war against the Anti-Comintern Pact by himself. If he does go to war, I hope there’s someone with an ounce of intelligence in Whitehall and the Elysée who’ll explain that they should join our crusade to eradicate Judeo-Bolshevism from the face of the Earth so communist provocateurs don’t stir up trouble in their own colonial empires.” Mussolini replied: “If there are two camps, for and against Prague, Italy has chosen its side.” He thereby clearly implied Italy would support Germany in this crisis.

The complete truth was that Hitler had begun preparing for war within days of the Pravda publication that had issued the Soviet Union’s position on the matter. Berlin denounced criticisms of aggression vis-à-vis its mobilization by pointing out this was a defensive military build-up in response to Czechoslovakia doing the same by carrying out a partial mobilization. The Sudetendeutsches Freikorps commenced with a so-called retaliatory campaign in self-defence against the entirely fictional atrocities committed against the Sudeten Germans by Prague. In reality, their attacks were little more than terrorism. The SS and SD carried out Operation Himmler, a false flag operation to create the appearance of Czechoslovakian aggression to justify a declaration of war. The most famous of these was the attack on the Bautzen Radio Station on September 30th 1938. SS men in Czechoslovak uniforms took over the radio station and broadcast a short anti-German message. Dead bodies from Buchenwald concentration camp inmates were dressed in German and Czechoslovak uniforms to make it look like there had been some fighting.

On October 1st, in a speech in the Reichstag, Hitler cited the 21 border incidents as justification for Germany's “defensive” action against Czechoslovakia: “I can no longer find any willingness on the part of the Czechoslovak government to conduct serious negotiations with us. These proposals for mediation have failed because in the meanwhile there, first of all, came as an answer the sudden Czechoslovak general mobilization, followed by more Czechoslovak atrocities. These were again repeated last night. Recently in one night there were as many as twenty-one frontier incidents: last night there were fourteen, of which three were quite serious. I have, therefore, resolved to speak to Prague in the same language that it for months past has used toward us. This night for the first time Czechoslovak regular soldiers fired on our own territory. Since 5:45 AM we have been returning fire. I will continue this struggle, no matter against whom, until the safety of the Reich and its rights are secured.” The Sudeten War had begun.
 
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This is gonna go poorly fo Mr. Moustace; i doubt benito will actually join until the dust has settled, I'm not sure if the rest of the anti-Comintern pact will defend hitler either since he's the aggressor in the wider war. that means its only a matter of getting the soviets through poland
 
Chapter III German Invasion and Soviet Intervention, 1-10 October 1938.
Update time!

Chapter III German Invasion and Soviet Intervention, 1-10 October 1938.

In the two weeks leading up to the formal declaration of war, Germany mobilized about 600.000 men in 36 infantry divisions, 2.000 tanks, 3.000 artillery guns and 2.500 aircraft. All-in-all, by adding Waffen SS and Landwehr divisions and support from SA stormtroopers and police units the Germans managed to mobilize a force of three quarters of a million men, totalling fifty divisions. They faced 35 infantry divisions, 500 tanks, 2.200 artillery guns and 880 aircraft from the Czechoslovakian armed forces. The Germans had greater numbers on their side and would’ve won in a matter of weeks, maybe three months at the most, without foreign involvement.

Contrary to Hitler’s speech, offensive German operations had already begun at five o’clock in the morning on October 1st, 45 minutes earlier than he claimed German forces had been “returning fire.” This didn’t come as a complete surprise to the Czechoslovakian army as they’d already carried out a partial mobilization, moving troops to the border fortifications and observing German movements on the other side of the border. They were powerless to do anything about it since they were under strict orders not to fire unless fired upon first to avoid being seen as the aggressor. The government of four star general Jan Syrový, who’d become Prime Minister on September 22nd, had issued a total mobilization order two days prior.

The Czechoslovak border fortifications were incomplete: the first stage of construction was to be complete by 1941-’42 and the entire system only by the early fifties. Nonetheless, 264 heavy blockhouses and 10.014 light pillboxes, 20% of the heavy objects and 70% of the light ones, were complete while the incomplete ones were at least useable as shelters and storages. The heavy fortifications had additional protection by being covered with boulders and debris, stopping most shells before they’d reach the concrete. The heavy defences had machine guns and artillery, some mounted in cupolas, with part of the fire directed laterally to stop the enemy from engaging from the flanks or from behind. The strongest ones had indirect fire mortars and heavy cannon mounts. Enemy forces trying to pass between the heavy blockhouses would face resistance from the pillboxes and would encounter anti-tank and anti-infantry barricades as well as machine gun and artillery fire. The line functioned as intended despite its incomplete status, with the defenders holding the Germans back for days and inflicting serious casualties by exploiting the defences and the terrain cleverly, carrying out strategic withdrawals where these were required.

Holding back the Germans for as long as possible and inflicting severe casualties, whilst trying to preserve their own forces when possible through strategic retreats, was the strategy of the Czechoslovak military leadership. They realized full well that in the medium to long term Germany’s greater industrial base and manpower pool would simply overwhelm them. Therefore they had to fight smart to prolong their ability to continue the war effort and hopefully make the enemy bleed enough to come to a peace agreement. Since they knew that Hitler, unfortunately, was unlikely to be deterred by any losses (though they hoped those around him might be), prolonging the fight served the second purpose of giving Prague’s allies time to mobilize and intervene. Therefore their effort had to be credible since nobody was going to go to war over a lost cause.

The advantageous materiel superiority of the Wehrmacht meant Prague absolutely needed allies to achieve victory. In terms of manpower the situation was roughly equal, but the Germans had four times as many tanks and almost three times as many aircraft. Though the LT-35 light tank was superior to the Panzer I and Panzer II the Germans used, this was nullified by the number of German tanks facing them. In the air it was much the same. The Czechoslovak air force had 880 airplanes and 450 of those were fairly modern Avia B-534 biplane fighters that surprisingly managed to hold their own against Messerschmitt Bf-109 fighters. The biplane Letov S-328 – with four forward facing 7.92 machine guns, two more in the rear cockpit and 500 kg of bombs – was a good attack aircraft and blew up its share of Panzers. Though some dogfights were spectacularly won by Czechoslovak pilots, the Luftwaffe gained air superiority and the Czechoslovak air force was spread out and kept hidden, only to be used when absolutely necessary. A handful of bombing raids against German targets just across the border were carried out by Avia B-71 fast bombers (license produced versions of the Soviet Tupolev SB).

Once Fall Grün (Case Green) was put into effect on October 1st 1938, the Luftwaffe bombed Czechoslovak fortifications, roads and main railways towards the front, after which their invasion commenced. In the northern theatre the German advance was checked after only eight kilometres, making it the most successful Czechoslovak defence. In the centre German forces advanced more steadily until they hit fortifications west of Pilsen, which took them four days to breach, forcing a Czechoslovak withdrawal to a secondary line southwest of Prague. In the south, German forces advanced towards and subsequently besieged defences around Brno and Bratislava, facing spirited defenders.

Within ten days the frontline had been pushed to the outskirts of Prague. Hitler wanted it to be over and threatened to destroy the country’s capital, hoping to bully the enemy into declaring it an open city so it would be spared. He fully expected that to happen since the Czechoslovak government would be mindful of the cultural treasures of the city: architecture from the Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance and Baroque periods, several museums, galleries, theatres and other historical exhibits. Besides that, a German bombardment would of course inflict terrible civilian casualties.

Hitler wanted to spare the city, if possible, for several reasons. Firstly, he had pictured a triumphant military parade in the historical city, which wouldn’t be so glorious if it was set against the backdrop of blackened ruins. Besides that, a long siege or house to house battle would lengthen the war, which was a problem for several reasons: the Germans only had fuel reserves for three weeks of intense combat; it would require manpower, which would force the Wehrmacht to pull older reservists in their forties, that were less well equipped and trained, from the incomplete Siegfried Line; and if the invasion didn’t go quick enough then he couldn’t present the world a fait accompli, increasing the risk of outside interference and a wider, more drawn out conflict Germany wasn’t yet equipped to fight.

Foreign intervention became a matter of time when the Soviet Union declared war on October 5th (after a four day marathon politburo session the Soviet leader ordered as he was having last minute doubts). Stalin promised a contingent of 350.000 men, adhering to the alliance between the two countries, and subsequent mobilization orders were issued in the Kiev and Odessa military districts. Meanwhile, Romania had given the Soviet Air Force permission to fly through their airspace to transport troops and supplies to Czechoslovakia. Soviet forces slowly started massing in Slovakia near Košice. As long as air transport was the only way for the Red Army to get in troops, their build-up would be fed by a small, slow trickle. Moscow, however, was also trying to negotiate overland corridors, guarded by the Romanian Army, through which they would be able to send troops and supplies. As time passed it looked like the Romanians would agree as Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, the other two members of the Little Entente, were pressuring them into it. That would send a message to Hungary, deterring it from launching a revanchist war of its own, which was the reason for the mutual defence arrangement of the three powers (it didn’t, however, scare Poland as it occupied the disputed Zaolzie region over Czechoslovakia’s protests).

At 10:00 AM on October 10th, Hitler had a meeting at the Bendlerblock, an office complex in Berlin used by several departments of the OKW and the OKH as well as the Abwehr military intelligence agency. Hitler met with OKW chief General Wilhelm Keitel, OKH chief General Walther von Brauchitsch, OKH chief of staff Franz Halder and Luftwaffe commander Hermann Goering, his right-hand man. Hitler declared a “a Bolshevik ulcer is growing in Slovakia. If we force a Czechoslovak collapse, be it a military collapse or a loss of political will to continue, we can surgically remove it. If not, the ulcer will burst with results we can scarcely foresee, never mind act upon. It could even encourage the cowardly French and British to act. A two-front war must be avoided at all costs.” In other words, if the enemy was forced out of the war quickly then the Soviets would be forced out too. If not, then the Soviet presence would grow to the point that the Germans wouldn’t have the upper hand in terms of men and equipment anymore. That would make this a long conflict with an unpredictable outcome and possible Anglo-French intervention, which would inevitably result in defeat.

The decision was made to bomb Prague despite its cultural and historical significance and with no regard whatsoever for its remaining civilian population. Hermann Goering promised his Luftwaffe would raze the city to the ground saying “we will annihilate Prague and its people will suffer. If this doesn’t break them, I don’t know what will.” On Tuesday October 11th at 09:00 AM a fleet of 75 bombers – composed of Heinkel He 111s, Dornier Do 17s, Junkers Ju 88s and Ju-52s – took flight. Bf 109 fighters kept enemy fighters at bay and Stuka dive bombers suppressed anti-aircraft guns. They dropped about sixty tonnes of bombs on the city, killing 552 civilians and wounding thousands as well as inflicting terrible damage. Entire boroughs in the city centre had been levelled. The bombing was condemned by several governments worldwide, most prominently by the Soviet Union, Britain and France of course. It didn’t have the intended effect of forcing a surrender, but stiffened resistance instead.

After his meeting at the Bendlerblock, Hitler’s plane departed with a southward heading the same day as he believed he could lead the war effort better if he was closer to the front. He planned to lead the military from the Berghof, his Alpine chalet, while remaining in control of politics through the “Little Chancellery” in the nearby town of Bischofswiesen. Little did he know that a plot was being forged against him. In fact, the plane taking him to Berchtesgaden had an object on board that could’ve killed the Führer if it had done its job. The bomb hidden in a briefcase with a false bottom didn’t go off and wasn’t discovered either, being discretely removed by one of the conspirators. No-one knows how the war would’ve gone if it had done what it was supposed to.
 
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Nice work.
The numbers may not favour the Germans as much as they might seem. As I recall many of the German tanks broke down on the way to the Czechslovakia, so the numbers of Germans tanks ready for combat could much lower than the force sent.
In the Austrian annexation below is an example of numbers of tanks breaking down even without combat.
As the Second Panzer division crossed the border into Austria and began the advance from Linz to Vienna on the 13thof March, about fifty tanks broke down. Guderian admitted that about thirty percent of his tanks experience some sort of malfunction, even if the numbers appeared to be a little higher. https://openworks.wooster.edu/cgi/v...redir=1&article=4804&context=independentstudy
 
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Also, bear in mind that the majority of German tanks are going to be Pzkpfw I's and II's.

I'm sure someone will have better figures, but according to Wiki, the most they're going to have in late 1938 are possibly 95 Pzkpfw III's (including command tanks) and 262 Pzkpfw IV's - a total of perhaps 350 out of the 2000.
 
It's fairly believeable so far, turned out to be a bit more favorable to the Germans but most of Czechoslovakia remains and the Soviets are coming. Even if Prague falls Slovakia can probably be defended thanks to the influx of Russians.
 
So the mobilization was delayed somewhat it seems (OTL it was completed by the end of September). This makes quite a lot of sense, as there wouldn't be such a hurry as OTL, especially if the Syrovy government believed they still had support of their allies, which they would expect to detter Hitler.

This also explains how quickly the Germans got to Prague, as a fully mobilized army could likely delay them up to 3 weeks, especially on the Plzeň line.

And hearing about Prague geting bombed bloody hurts a natives heart.

All in all, while the Germans did have rather swift way to Prague taking it will take quite some time. With the soviets coming in, they could likely meet with the Czechosloval army either at tze Czechia-Moravia dividing line which was supposed to be another deffensive line, or perhaps at the Prague line itself. With the Polish satisfied with Zaolzie and Hungariens checked by Romanians, things are not looking bad.
 
Also, bear in mind that the majority of German tanks are going to be Pzkpfw I's and II's.

I'm sure someone will have better figures, but according to Wiki, the most they're going to have in late 1938 are possibly 95 Pzkpfw III's (including command tanks) and 262 Pzkpfw IV's - a total of perhaps 350 out of the 2000.
From start of production in October 1937 to end of September 1938 35 Po IVA and 42 Pz IV B were produced. 5 of As were used for testing,
72 or 77 in total available.
 
Yes...I did think over 250 Pzkpfw IV's was a bit suspect. So there's a combined total of about 160-170 III's and IV's, with the bulk - about 1800 - being I's and II's.
 
Interesting, a 1938 War. Nice timeline!

Hitler bombing Prague... I hope someone defenestrates that asshole.

France & Britain: "Germany, stop. If you keep doing this kind of thing, we will have to resort to even harsher words. Now you don't want us to do that, do you?"
 
To point out: Poland is also a likely enemy of Czechslovakia. After WWI there was some fighting for Teschen wich the czech have won. In 1938 Poland annexed parts of Czechslovakia.
A wiki link to it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Czechoslovak_border_conflicts
There was also fighting in Slovakia in late 1938 in Orava and High Tattas region. However Prague offered Zaolzie shortly before or around Munich. Poles would stay out. Why to bother and piss off French and Brits if they could get it without fight. Also this would give Soviets case to attack. Not that they would do any good. But again. Why to go to trouble.
 
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