The Sudeten War: History of the World after an Alternate 1938

Spane would be more or less useless in any conflict as they have no oil and the only way to get oil for Spane is via sea. The RN will certainly make sure there won’t be any. And without oil...
 
I actually wonder how the postwar Czechoslovak and Spanish military-industrial complexes will look like ITTL. The Czech situation certainly looks similar to OTL with the factories around Prague being likely destroyed and the Soviets having a lot of influence, but since the Czechoslovak state survived and has a proper standing army it's possible that its procurement would be more independent than it's OTL Warsaw Pact equivalent that standardized a lot around Soviet gear.

Socialist Spain is ruined on the other hand and is lagging behind in weapons' technology so we would likely see extensive cooperation with the Soviets, at least to rebuild the Army first. The relative isolation with the Soviet Union and peculiar geography may lead to many independent designs however.
 
I actually wonder how the postwar Czechoslovak and Spanish military-industrial complexes will look like ITTL. The Czech situation certainly looks similar to OTL with the factories around Prague being likely destroyed and the Soviets having a lot of influence, but since the Czechoslovak state survived and has a proper standing army it's possible that its procurement would be more independent than it's OTL Warsaw Pact equivalent that standardized a lot around Soviet gear.

Socialist Spain is ruined on the other hand and is lagging behind in weapons' technology so we would likely see extensive cooperation with the Soviets, at least to rebuild the Army first. The relative isolation with the Soviet Union and peculiar geography may lead to many independent designs however.

Well Stalinism was big on two things: collectivization and heavy industry.

I can picture the Spanish Stalinists buildings lots and lots of steal mills, and forcing Spanish peasants onto collective farms.
 
Map Europe 2.png


Europe in 1942
 
Man, it is been a long time since I read one of your comments.

You have the ability to make complex history into literature, which is why I love reading them so much.

But let us remember something: on the world stage, Stalin was first and foremost a geopolitical thinker.

Like all geopolitical thinkers, every decision, good or (in the case of Stalin, very) bad, was based off the geopolitical interests of the Red Russian Empire he ruled.

Whether it was purging the Ukrainians, deporting the Chechens and the Volga Germans, or even enjoying a siesta with his fascist enemy, all of Stalin's decisions were based off securing his own power.

Building communist puppet states was not about spreading the workers' paradise, but engaging in the centuries-long Russian battle for more buffer states to defend against enemy invasion.

Whether or not Stalin intends to use Spain will depend on whether or not he sees Spain as necessary to the survival of his country.

OTL, he wasn't as committed to the Republicans as the Italians and Germans were to Franco, so I don't know TTL if he'll really care much about what Red Spain does with its existance.

TTL, if the Cold War comes early, perhaps he'll arm them as a bulwark against the West.

Or perhaps Spain's communist go for the Tito approach of "neutral, capitalist-friendly communism."

I mean... I am sure Stalin supposed himself to be a cool-headed judge of geopolitics, but if you read the articles he wrote and compare them to his actions, it looks like the man was a zealot who believed his own bull.

The Declaration of Potsdam despite its emptiness ruffled feathers in Moscow as Stalin interpreted it differently as per his usual paranoid self, believing it to be the European component of a hostile anti-Soviet alliance.
I agree that Stalin will be super-paranoid here, but I very much doubt that Stalin would intervene more in the Spanish civil war as a result. He didn't see it as a genuine revolution and I don't see how a successful defense of Czechoslovakia would chance his perspective on Spain being something to use and discard.

Especially since Stalin believes that the Capitalist powers must be drawn into combat with each-others as part of the capitalist competition for scarce resources. So if he just lays low, the four major powers in Europe should end up at war against each other. No need for him to stick his thumb into Spain and provoke an anti-Soviet alliance that staves off the mutual annihilation of the capitalists long enough for them to annihilate HIM.

The only way I can see this changing is if he thinks that a Republican victory would strengthen the French left somehow without it backfiring on him. Perhaps if the British stated to pressure Stalin to counter the Italians in Spain (seems unlikely though, the British will be favorably inclined towards Italy in this scenario I think).

fasquardon
 
I mean... I am sure Stalin supposed himself to be a cool-headed judge of geopolitics, but if you read the articles he wrote and compare them to his actions, it looks like the man was a zealot who believed his own bull.

That's...an understatement.

I agree that Stalin will be super-paranoid here, but I very much doubt that Stalin would intervene more in the Spanish civil war as a result. He didn't see it as a genuine revolution and I don't see how a successful defense of Czechoslovakia would chance his perspective on Spain being something to use and discard.

Especially since Stalin believes that the Capitalist powers must be drawn into combat with each-others as part of the capitalist competition for scarce resources. So if he just lays low, the four major powers in Europe should end up at war against each other. No need for him to stick his thumb into Spain and provoke an anti-Soviet alliance that staves off the mutual annihilation of the capitalists long enough for them to annihilate HIM.

The only way I can see this changing is if he thinks that a Republican victory would strengthen the French left somehow without it backfiring on him. Perhaps if the British stated to pressure Stalin to counter the Italians in Spain (seems unlikely though, the British will be favorably inclined towards Italy in this scenario I think).

fasquardon

Stalin: OK, time to retreat to my dacha. Wake me up when the capitalists start destroying each other.

Beria. Don't worry, comrade Stalin. I won't...let you out of my sight.
 
Nice update! I would look to see the situation of the US - without WW2, FDR probably wouldn't break the two-term rule and would support someone else to the presidency. Maybe a Republican wins?
 
Nice update! I would look to see the situation of the US - without WW2, FDR probably wouldn't break the two-term rule and would support someone else to the presidency. Maybe a Republican wins?
I am not sure why FDR would not run again just because there was no ww2.
 
I don't too see FDR running third term. Possible but not really likely. There is quiet strong respect for Washington's precedent and hardly anyone just violate that without good reason.
 
I don't too see FDR running third term. Possible but not really likely. There is quiet strong respect for Washington's precedent and hardly anyone just violate that without good reason.
I think FDR would continue as the depression is still going and I think FDR would like to lead America out of the depression.
This time he will not have the war spending to lead America out of the great depression. This could mean less stress and better health for FDR.
To bring about the major changes FDR wanted I think it takes more than 2 terms.
 
It was the fall of france that led to him seeking a 3rd term due to how unprecedented it was- it convinced him that hitler was an existential threat beyond the European shores. without that factor, while he could run, I actually quite doubt it. and FDR is easily one of my favorite presidents
 
It was the fall of france that led to him seeking a 3rd term due to how unprecedented it was- it convinced him that hitler was an existential threat beyond the European shores
That was flawed thinking as Germany never had the ability to project power beyond Europe.
 
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