The Strange revival of Tory Scotland.

Could you perhaps expand a little on Willie Rennie's conflict of interest?
I added that on after reading about it from a dubious source, which stated he had links with defence contractor, but never resigned as Defence spokesman, which I had him do in this atl. I'm glad you mentioned it, as I went on the Beeb to find said link and couldnae find it. So consider it removed! :eek:
 
I added that on after reading about it from a dubious source, which stated he had links with defence contractor, but never resigned as Defence spokesman, which I had him do in this atl. I'm glad you mentioned it, as I went on the Beeb to find said link and couldnae find it. So consider it removed! :eek:

Fair enough: I tried to find what had happened OTL and thought that it must have been an ATL event. I wanted to know, because it would have to be a fairly major link to count as a resignation matter; I won't go into it here, but suffice to say that there exist many strong links between defence industries and ministry staff.
 
Looking good Fletcher, keep it up!
A commitment to more fiscal devolution while controversial within some circles of the party, is on balance a more mature position than not doing anything, especially in the light of the Scottish Parliament extensive powers.
The nine "super councils" sounds good too, especially since their greater size could allow for some powers to be devolved from the Scottish Executive to the councils.
 
Chapter Five. The build up to the 2007 Scottish Parliament and Local Elections.

Over the next few months, the party spent organising the campaign for the following years Holyrood and local elections. Fraser was clear that a targeting strategy should be followed, and as a result eleven seats were targeted as winnable. On the list was Frasers himself, where he had stood and been defeated in 2003 by John Swinney, the former leader of the SNP.
 
Fundraising was going well, with sizable donations from people such as Sir David Murray, Lord Laidlaw, the Grants and Gordon’s of Whisky fame and Sir Ian Wood. Murray summed up the fundraising effort by the rich and powerful by pointing out that this was the first time in a generation that the Tories looked set to revive themselves. Brain Monteith, whose power had expanded somewhat since the election of Fraser was made the parties election co-ordinator alongside his position as Conservative Deputy Leader and Shadow Finance spokesman. At this point, the position of head of the Media Response Unit was given to Amanda Harvie, seen as a rising star within the party. Monteith pushed the funds principally into the seats targeted in a bid to secure extra backing therein.
 
The campaign was successful in itself as the number of volunteers increased substantially between October and January. As funding went into the party, the money was being pushed through central office to the target constituencies. The first test of the new structure was going well at this stage.
 
The other parties had, by January all began work on the campaign themselves. It was during January that the format for the debate which would take place between the five leaders would be discussed and hopefully agreed upon. In 2003, McLetchie had treated it as a debating exercise in the sure and certain knowledge that he would be defeated. It was seen as important that the new leadership adopt a different strategy for the debate.

Who was in the audience and where they would sit was also important. Fraser recalled being told that in 1992, there was a big debate in the Usher Hall in Edinburgh, and Mike Russell(who was representing Alex Salmond), negotiated fully with Jack McConnell, the then General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party over who would be in the audience, how much time the candidates would get etc. There would be a small group of people behind the leaders.
 
Russell missed this out and McConnell placed Labour Supporters behind Salmond and Donald Dewar, so every time Salmond spoke it looked as if the audience were disagreeing with him. He was determined this would not happen to him. As such every point was considered by his team.
 
It was agreed at this point that the campaign would be run on a positive platform of change, rather than the rather negative campaign run by the party in the UK General Election. Private polling was positive, and the party was now fully expectant that a good result would be had in the upcoming poll.
 
Once the election began, the SNP, the SDP and the Liberal Democrats all campaigned on a local income tax to replace the council tax, which was more radical than the Conservative message. The Conservative campaign, with its slogan “A Progressive Party for a Progressive Scotland” was going down fairly well. Jack McConnell ran what can only be described as a low-key campaign, promising to continue the school-building campaign and to continue reform of the National Health Service. He also made the headlines by ruling out a coalition with the Lib Dems should he win. Whatever happened, minority government looked set to be on the way.
 
The SNP campaign was to be nothing short of a disaster. They spent almost the entire campaign attempting to outflank the SDP, which meant both parties pushed each other further in the issue over who was the biggest nationalist party. It was a debate which had been ongoing for the previous three years, but only now was the extent of it coming to the surface.
 
The debates themselves, were something of an anti-climax. The viewing figures were down on the 2003 debates, dubbed in the same manner as he described First Ministers Questions by Rab McNeil of The Scotsman “Hamster Wars.” The highlight was the open bickering between Nicola Sturgeon and Jim Sillars, who of the two performed better on the night.
 
As the 3rd May 2007 dawned, Scotland went to the polls. For the nation, it was to be an election of change.
 
Chapter Six. The 2007 Scottish Parliament Election.

The 3rd of May, 2007 was a day when the future of Scotland changed. The Scottish National Party were overtaken as the leading opposition party in the Scottish Parliament by the Conservatives. In what was a horrible night for the Nationalists, they lost every single constituency, having to rely on the regional lists to get returned to Holyrood. It was also the day when the SDP broke through onto the political scene, albeit entirely through the regional members also. As such, it can fairly be characterised as the day Scottish nationalism properly split in two.
 
The Labour party, despite a drop in its vote from 2003, was returned as clearly the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, gaining 49 seats out of the 129. Jack McConnell made it clear that it was now his intention to attempt to form a minority executive to replace the previous Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition. He made it clear though that he would be looking into making a deal with the Liberals for a supply and confidence deal, so that there would be no issue over the budgets and to ensure that Scotland would, over the next four years have stable government.
 
The big winners of the night though, were the Conservatives, winning thirteen constituencies, alongside the seventeen list seats, easily becoming the largest opposition group in the Assembly. Murdo Fraser announced himself delighted at the result, and hailed what he called the return of Scottish Conservatism. In a withering reply, McConnell stated that he was happy for the Conservatives to “storm into opposition, as that is where they are staying”.  Despite this, combined with their success in the Scottish local elections, held on the same day where they became the largest group in several councils, this was a very good night for the Tories. Frasers brand of Progressive Conservatism had paid off.

David Cameron visited Fraser on the next morning to congratulate him on his success, declaring that if the Tories could win thirteen constituencies for Holyrood, it was a sign they were now winning up and down Britain. The issues over strategy between Cameron and Fraser were, for now forgotten. The headlines in the BBC news read of the opposition, rather than the government.
 
The Greens also had a decent evening, having five of their MSPs returned for another four years. Over the next few days, Jack McConnell managed to get the supply and confidence agreement with Nicol Stephen, and as a result was returned to Bute House for another term as First Minister. He stated that this would be a very different Parliament to the one which had just gone, the tone and shape of the opposition had radically changed. There were now, effectively six groups in the Parliament, and the centre-right had made the breakthrough.
 

Results of the Scottish Parliament Election 2007.
  • Labour 49 Seats. (46 cons + 3 list)
  • Conservatives 30 Seats. (13 cons.+17 list)
  • Liberal Democrats 17 Seats. (14 cons.+3 list)
  • Scottish National Party 15 Seats.(0 cons.+15 list)
  • Scottish Democratic Party 13 Seats.(0 cons+13 list)
  • Green Party 5 Seats.(0 cons+5 list)
Share of the Vote.
  • Labour 31.9% Cons, 28.2% list.
  • Conservative 24.2% Cons, 21.8% list
  • Liberal Democrat 16.8% Cons, 11.2% list
  • SNP 14.3% Cons, 13.9% list
  • SDP 9.1% Cons, 12.2% list
  • Green 6% list
  • Independents 1.3% Cons, 1.1% list
  • Others 2.7% Cons, 5.8% list
The other big story of the night was the number of rejected ballot papers, which was huge. This was believed to be a consequence of holding the local and Scottish Parliament elections on the same day. It was agreed shortly after that an enquiry should be held into the issue.

The following day, Nicola Sturgeon resigned as leader of the SNP. The new list member for North East Scotland, Alex Salmond, put his hat in to replace her. He declared it his duty to step back to save the party he loved. Salmonds old mentor Jim Sillars declared that Salmond was too late.

And so began Jack McConnells third term.
 
How did Labour only end up with 3 "list" seats despite having 28.2% of the list vote while the SDP got 13 with 12.2%?
 
How did Labour only end up with 3 "list" seats despite having 28.2% of the list vote while the SDP got 13 with 12.2%?
The Scottish Parliament was elected using a mixed-member D'Hondt system of voting. Labour did, and has at every Scottish Parliament election, done disproportionately well in the constituency seats for the method of voting or them to gain many additional list members.

In 1999, they ended up with three list seats, despite winning 33.6% of the list vote, in 2003, they ended up with four, after winning 29.3% of the list vote. Due to the split in other parties votes here, despite their vote going down, they have still done very well in the constituency seats, and thus have not gained many additional members. The SDP, on the other hand gained no constituency MSPs, and thus gained more additional members.
 
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So Salmond returns to take charge of a party with no hope and in terminal decline? You've made him the Annabel Goldie of this TL. :p

Is there any chance of an electoral grouping between the SNP, SDP and possibly the greens? They're all left wing nationalist parties despite the hatred of the former two for one another.

I wonder if this will give Brown the confidence he needs to go for an election in 2007?

Also, I found a poll which gave the Tories 21% of the vote in Scotland at the height of Labour unpopularity in 2009, maybe Fraser could actually go ahead ITTL?

Really interesting stuff. :)
 
So Salmond returns to take charge of a party with no hope and in terminal decline? You've made him the Annabel Goldie of this TL. :p

Is there any chance of an electoral grouping between the SNP, SDP and possibly the greens? They're all left wing nationalist parties despite the hatred of the former two for one another.

I wonder if this will give Brown the confidence he needs to go for an election in 2007?

Also, I found a poll which gave the Tories 21% of the vote in Scotland at the height of Labour unpopularity in 2009, maybe Fraser could actually go ahead ITTL?

Really interesting stuff. :)
I'm afraid theres not much chance of an SNP/SDP alliance in the short term, if only due to the bad blood between their leadership. Sillars was initially Alex Salmonds mentor, but the two fell out and haven't even spoken in over seven years, so they will, in the short term compete against one another. The Greens are as well staying an independent group in this timeline, as their independence as a small seperate party in Holyrood is a huge advantage for them.

With regards the question over whether Murdo Fraser and his re-branded Tories will go ahead, remember, the financial crisis hasn't fully hit yet and he is now the leader of the main opposition to Labour.

As to the question over how Alex Salmond will do and a possible election in 2007, I'll remain silent if thats ok with you...;)
 
I'm afraid theres not much chance of an SNP/SDP alliance in the short term, if only due to the bad blood between their leadership.

Ah sort of fourniliar to the current Labour-SNP antagonism which may force Gray to deal with Scott in May. :(

The Greens are as well staying an independent group in this timeline, as their independence as a small seperate party in Holyrood is a huge advantage for them.

True, although they've lost seats they really should be happy about being marginalised like in OTL and being left with nil seats. Is Harper still leader at this stage or has he passed it on to one of the other four?

With regards the question over whether Murdo Fraser and his re-branded Tories will go ahead, remember, the financial crisis hasn't fully hit yet and he is now the leader of the main opposition to Labour

It's still a big climb, even if Frasers a Saint compared to all that corruption McConnell went through in his Motherwell and Wishaw seat.
 
Interesting TL. wasn't a complete exodus by the Scottish Tories similar to the UUP not entirely out of the question in the late 90's OTL?
 
Interesting TL. wasn't a complete exodus by the Scottish Tories similar to the UUP not entirely out of the question in the late 90's OTL?
The Scottish Tories would have essentially died in 1997 were it not for the Scottish Parliament. Even then, today, they don't have the support levels of even 1997. The total destruction of the party was not out of the question at all.

Interstingly, many of the ideas I put in this timeline have now been recommended today in the Sanderson review of the Tories shocking performance in Scotland at the General election past. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/scottish-conservative-2010-commission-final-report.pdf
 
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