Early-War Victory: Germans won't bother dictating terms of Ireland. Home Rule had been postponed because of the war, so at its end, that issue will sweep back into the political spectrum and be resolved seiftly.
Mid-War Victory: About the time of the Easter Rising, say, the Germans are more likely to adopt a carrot and stick approach to Ireland. The BEF will just have been knocked out in France and Belgium, and Ireland is suffering civil unrest. Germany wants other things from the UK, but knows that she can't stop the Govt. crushing the rebellion. Better to give Britain the carrot of being allowed to withdraw troops - who will then be sent to Ireland to crush opposition - so as to gain leverage elsewhere e.g. the African colonies.
Late-War Victory: A naval victory is all but impossible by now, so a successful submarine blockade or a continental military victory is all that's available. Neither will have much impact on Ireland's status. See below for my reasoning.
I call determinism. Sure, its a pretty likely result, but as I said, there are too many potential scenarios to sweep them aside in a generalisation like that.
You'd need German maritime domination, which is tricky. A successful sub blockade, while it would starve Britain into making terms, wouldn't do much to the power of the RN relative to that of the HSF. One would need to have more than one engagement in which the German fleet punched above its weight or defeated the RN in detail repeatedly. It isn't impossible, but that is the only situation in which it would be possible for the German government to dictate the future condition of Ireland to the British.
A continental victory, even one that saw a large portion of the BEF trapped on the wrong side of the Channel, is really unlikely to see Ireland used as a bargaining chip. Regaining German colonies is more useful, and the British government, even in dire straits, is going to fall if it suggests allowing Germany a naval base in an Ireland hostile to the mainland, which is what this amounts to.