The status of Ireland in a CP victory

If the central powers won what would happen to Ireland? Would it gain independence? Become a German colony? Or something else?
 
Considering that Ireland got independence very shortly after a British victory, I imagine that they'd be released as part of the treaty. They'd probably get North Ireland, too, though.
 
"CP victory" changes year by year, and every year there a hojillion variations on the theme. I can only state one thing categorically:

German colony? Whut? Imperial Germany didn't even make a colony of Poland, where many crazy nationalists thought they should.

Well, Germany is usually not capable of dictating terms to Britain concerning things it can't physically reach. If Britain suffers some kind of major meltdown, Ireland will probably spin off with Germany's blessing. Otherwise, the Germans are in no position to demand or enforce anything.
 
It will depend on how, when and how decisively the CP won. In most of the scenarios the CP has little leverage over the Brits and so Ireland will be left out of the treaty. However I do know of one TL that is a very big exception to that...
 
Unless the German Army manages pull off Sealion the Prequel there's no way the Germans are going to be able to dictate what Britain does in Ireland.

Any German victory would be a continental one, Germany manages to screw concessions out of France and arrange an armistice with Britain that recognises German hegemony over Europe. Britain and France rearm like crazy while Germany's strength is drained by their control freak policies and they all start fighting again about twenty years later.
 
Unless the German Army manages pull off Sealion the Prequel there's no way the Germans are going to be able to dictate what Britain does in Ireland.

Any German victory would be a continental one, Germany manages to screw concessions out of France and arrange an armistice with Britain that recognises German hegemony over Europe. Britain and France rearm like crazy while Germany's strength is drained by their control freak policies and they all start fighting again about twenty years later.

I call determinism. Sure, its a pretty likely result, but as I said, there are too many potential scenarios to sweep them aside in a generalisation like that.
 
As others said, it depends. I've read some stories where CP victory over an Entente-Britain leads to the independence of all of Ireland, but also ones where the British realize that an independent Ireland will always be a threat to them, and take steps to appease the Irish and keep them in the UK.

A german colony is completely out of the question.
 

MrP

Banned
Early-War Victory: Germans won't bother dictating terms of Ireland. Home Rule had been postponed because of the war, so at its end, that issue will sweep back into the political spectrum and be resolved seiftly.

Mid-War Victory: About the time of the Easter Rising, say, the Germans are more likely to adopt a carrot and stick approach to Ireland. The BEF will just have been knocked out in France and Belgium, and Ireland is suffering civil unrest. Germany wants other things from the UK, but knows that she can't stop the Govt. crushing the rebellion. Better to give Britain the carrot of being allowed to withdraw troops - who will then be sent to Ireland to crush opposition - so as to gain leverage elsewhere e.g. the African colonies.

Late-War Victory: A naval victory is all but impossible by now, so a successful submarine blockade or a continental military victory is all that's available. Neither will have much impact on Ireland's status. See below for my reasoning.

I call determinism. Sure, its a pretty likely result, but as I said, there are too many potential scenarios to sweep them aside in a generalisation like that.

You'd need German maritime domination, which is tricky. A successful sub blockade, while it would starve Britain into making terms, wouldn't do much to the power of the RN relative to that of the HSF. One would need to have more than one engagement in which the German fleet punched above its weight or defeated the RN in detail repeatedly. It isn't impossible, but that is the only situation in which it would be possible for the German government to dictate the future condition of Ireland to the British.

A continental victory, even one that saw a large portion of the BEF trapped on the wrong side of the Channel, is really unlikely to see Ireland used as a bargaining chip. Regaining German colonies is more useful, and the British government, even in dire straits, is going to fall if it suggests allowing Germany a naval base in an Ireland hostile to the mainland, which is what this amounts to.
 
You'd need German maritime domination, which is tricky. A successful sub blockade, while it would starve Britain into making terms, wouldn't do much to the power of the RN relative to that of the HSF. One would need to have more than one engagement in which the German fleet punched above its weight or defeated the RN in detail repeatedly. It isn't impossible, but that is the only situation in which it would be possible for the German government to dictate the future condition of Ireland to the British.

A continental victory, even one that saw a large portion of the BEF trapped on the wrong side of the Channel, is really unlikely to see Ireland used as a bargaining chip. Regaining German colonies is more useful, and the British government, even in dire straits, is going to fall if it suggests allowing Germany a naval base in an Ireland hostile to the mainland, which is what this amounts to.

A sound analysis, but all I meant by that "sweeping generalisation" was "a new war caused by German overstretch results".
 
In a CP victory Germany would supply the Fenians with arms on the sly if there was any sort of Irish independence movement.
 
In a CP victory Germany would supply the Fenians with arms on the sly if there was any sort of Irish independence movement.

In the leadup to WW1, there was an Irish independence movement. A decidedly non-Fenian one. In parliament. Which had succeeded. The act had been given Royal Assent. Ireland was to have home rule, but the Unionists planned to make trouble using, ironically, German guns (the Germans weren't actively sponsoring them or anything). The outbreak of war was considered an ideal way to get the two armed camps in uniform and working towards the same goal by British authorities. Unfortunately, this had the unforseen results of leaving only radicals who wouldn't serve in any British army (a minority) behind in Ireland, with every man who could be keeping order sent to France.
 
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Of course Germany played both sides in Ireland. Where do you think the UVF got all its guns from in the Larne Gun Running Incident of 1914?

If a CP victory somehow saw an Independant 'Whole' Ireland, it would be engulfed in civil war with the Protestants engaged in a bitter civil clash with the Dublin government. Its inevitable that London would intervene directly or indirectly in support of the Unionists/Loyalists with Germany unlikely to send support, for what would it have to gain?

Then of course the Germans could be sending arms to both sides of the conflict making it extremely bloody.
 
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