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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamehameha_III#Later_years

By the end of 1853 the threats, whether real or imagined, caused petitions for the king to consider annexation to the United States. Wyllie and Lee convinced the king to insist that annexation would only be acceptable if Hawaii became a U.S. state.[15]
On May 16, 1854 King Kamehameha III proclaimed the Hawaiian Kingdom neutral in the Crimean War in Europe.[16] The present crises had passed, but the king's health declined, often attributed to his renewed drinking. The annexation question also did not go away. The British minister William Miller and French representative Louis Emile Perrin objected to the plan. New U.S. Commissioner David L. Gregg received instructions from Secretary of State William L. Marcy and negotiated a treaty of annexation with Wyllie by August 1854. It was never signed, and might not have been ratified by the Senate.

How likely is an annexation in this time period?
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