The Soviet Invasion of Iran, 1979/1980

Wolfpaw

Banned
Sure, maybe the Navy didn't go 100 percent with the Revolution in '79, but I can't help but wonder if (assuming this is an accurate depiction of Soviet beliefs) the Soviets were misreading Iranian beliefs.
They're sort of assuming the Navy will go with foreigners over Iranians, when it comes down to it. And I'm not so sure about that.

Many Iranians would not see it as going with foreigners over Iranians, they would see it as going against Khomeini and his Islamists. Besides, Iranians rarely had qualms about being tough other Iranians. Just look at the Shah's regime, the Mossadeq coup, and other instances of imperialism in modern, pre-revolutionary Iran.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Many Iranians would not see it as going with foreigners over Iranians, they would see it as going against Khomeini and his Islamists. Besides, Iranians rarely had qualms about being tough other Iranians. Just look at the Shah's regime, the Mossadeq coup, and other instances of imperialism in modern, pre-revolutionary Iran.

Hmmm...that's something to think about.

There's just this gut feeling I have that this Soviet plan (if it's accurate) was very much wishful thinking as far as hoping the Navy would go with a coup.

It seems to hinge on too many things going right all in a row, without anyone finding out about them. True, that's the same in all coups, but more have probably gone south than have worked out.
 
Many Iranians would not see it as going with foreigners over Iranians, they would see it as going against Khomeini and his Islamists. Besides, Iranians rarely had qualms about being tough other Iranians. Just look at the Shah's regime, the Mossadeq coup, and other instances of imperialism in modern, pre-revolutionary Iran.

The point is, IOTL Saddam thought the same. He expected, that the Iran would collapse and that the Arabs living at the border would welcome his troops as Liberators. The plan didn´t worked out this way.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The point is, IOTL Saddam thought the same. He expected, that the Iran would collapse and that the Arabs living at the border would welcome his troops as Liberators. The plan didn´t worked out this way.

Exactly.


And if you had to pick a military that would be least likely to come into a country with that "liberator" vibe, the Red Army is it. No matter what they do, when they roll into Tabriz, they're still going to be Soviets on T-62s.

And depending on when the do it, the Iranians may already be at war on one front. This would probably engender a feeling of being stabbed in the back by the Soviets.
 

wormyguy

Banned
And if you had to pick a military that would be least likely to come into a country with that "liberator" vibe, the Red Army is it. No matter what they do, when they roll into Tabriz, they're still going to be Soviets on T-62s.
A village in Polish Belarussia, 1939 (possibly staged).

Belarus_1939_Greeting_Soviets.jpg
 

MacCaulay

Banned
A village in Polish Belarussia, 1939 (possibly staged).

Well, the Hungarians were like that, too. Until the Soviets got there. Then stuff started going downhill.

I think there were a lot of misconceptions about the Soviet Union that got blown away after World War II.

And the Iranians would still remember the Soviets as being the troops that had occupied their homeland not more than 40 years before that, around the time that picture was taken. There would be men and women alive who would remember the last time Red Army tanks were driving through their villages.

EDIT: I'm not saying there wouldn't be ones that would welcome them. The Tudeh would probably have champagne in storage. But the vast majority probably wouldn't want the Soviets there. That's my gut feeling based on the history the Iranians and Russians have.
 
Fascinating topic and conversation, but I am wondering, could the Soviets get what they want, with a Communist coup in Iran? Because some new SSR are one thing, but if the USSR actually got a seat on OPEC, military access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, I feel the USA would go into crisis mode. Massive military build up, at least, and if the USSR doesn't win right off the bat, then funding the Iranian resistance. If the USSR does win, and Iraq goes into Soviet influence, then I think that Saudi Arabia would become closer to the USA. I doubt Iraq would want to mess with the USSR and play the powers against each other; the USSR borders Iraq and can fund the resistance in Kurtistan easy; the USA won't be able to strike Iraq as easily.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Fascinating topic and conversation, but I am wondering, could the Soviets get what they want, with a Communist coup in Iran? Because some new SSR are one thing, but if the USSR actually got a seat on OPEC, military access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, I feel the USA would go into crisis mode. Massive military build up, at least, and if the USSR doesn't win right off the bat, then funding the Iranian resistance. If the USSR does win, and Iraq goes into Soviet influence, then I think that Saudi Arabia would become closer to the USA. I doubt Iraq would want to mess with the USSR and play the powers against each other; the USSR borders Iraq and can fund the resistance in Kurtistan easy; the USA won't be able to strike Iraq as easily.

Well, we're not talking about an actual Soviet seat on OPEC here.

The Soviets would be hoping that the Iraq/Iran War, combined with their invasion of the north, would put increased pressure on the Islamic regime and cause them to collapse when a Tudeh-inspired coup is enacted.

Then an Iran that is effectively a Soviet client state would give the USSR a seat on OPEC by proxy, with the Iranian government conferring with the Soviets before meetings and what not.

Also, this client state could conceivably give the Soviets basing rights to the large and well proportioned Iranian bases at Isfahan, Shiraz, and Bandar Abbas. This would allow Soviet MiG-25 interceptor/recon planes to range out into the Indian Ocean and over the Persian Gulf.

In regards to Iraq...it was already basically in kahoots with the Soviets. In Osprey's Iranian F-4 Phantom II Units in Combat, Farzad Bishop and Tom Cooper point out that there were Soviet and East German pilots flying MiG-23s and -25s in the IrAF.
So the chances of them just turning around and giving the middle finger to the Soviets are non-existant.

I've been pushing the whole time that US funding to the Iranians would be remarkably easy: the Shah's orders were frozen (sometimes on the loading ramp) in America and Britain when the coup happened.
Phoenixes, Sidewinders, AWG radars, spare parts for C-130s, F-14s, F-4s, SeaCobras, Iranian mod-Chieftain tanks, everything. All these things were basically sitting in crates at US and UK airports waiting.
There wouldn't be any need to figure out what the Iranians needed for their combat operations: we have the shopping list already.

We just unfreeze the orders and start landing them at Isfahan or Bandar Abbas. If that's politically unfeasible, then we land them in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or Qatar, and the Iranians can pick them up there.
 
Hi, my first post here but I've been looking for this topic in my research for a story I'm conceiving/writing.

Instead of an all out invasion of Iran, what if the Soviet Union tried a bit more of a clandestine approach and used their spetsnaz or VDV to seize and essentially hold hostage iranian oil production? I'm pretty sure that if the United States had atomic demolition munitions, the Soviet Union would likely have something similar; if a squad of their special forces takes a refinery or storage facility and puts an MADM (medium atomic demolition munition) smack dab in the center of the facility and sends pictures of the soldiers posing for the camera alongside it, perhaps sending a couple of copies to the Western powers, can the U.S. and other superpowers respond with force or are they forced to come to the table and give in to Soviet demands (i.e. stop funding, supplying and training the Afghan mujahideen) ?

I'm pretty sure that the U.S., among many other nations had built strategic oil reserves after the first energy crisis, but if, hypothetically, the Soviets were able to seize and hold the major oil production facilities in the mid to late 80's (say for example, as an act of desperation before pulling our of Afghanistan) using some of their more loyal and determined soldiers and arm them with weapons of considerable deterrance, how would this affect things in your opinions?

My apologies if my notion is a bit naive, I'm new to this forum, along with in depth discussions of alternate history. Seems like a great forum you have here, though!
 
Comments

I have to say, I can't see the Soviets being able to hold on to Iran forever. The Joint Chiefs would have gone apeshit at the thought of the Soviets controlling the straits of Hormuz AND being so very close to the Saudi oilfields. NATO and the western world would be very, very nervous...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Immortal: In all honesty, that doesn't sound like something that a sane Soviet government would do. That's about the most succinct way I can put it.


I have to say, I can't see the Soviets being able to hold on to Iran forever. The Joint Chiefs would have gone apeshit at the thought of the Soviets controlling the straits of Hormuz AND being so very close to the Saudi oilfields. NATO and the western world would be very, very nervous...

Well, you can find out what happened if you want...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=129583

That's the story that came out of this discussion.
 
Haha, yeah, I couldn't imagine a sane Soviet government pulling such a move; still, desperation leads to a general degradation of judgement; I imagine that could be said for governments as well. If some of the more radical Soviet heads of state felt that the end of the Union was near, and they didn't approve of it's coming, they might not have cared whether an act of desperation was seen as an act of terrorism.

At any rate, I'm trying to glean information for a what-if scenario where an OPEC related group sabotages global strategic oil reserves to get nations to pay top dollar for petroleum in a second energy crises; The Soviet Union, aware that the U.S. is funding a covert war against them in Afghanistan and that public opinion within the Soviet Union is boiling over, sees an opportunity and takes it, seizing the primary oil fields and refineries of Iran and essentially holds them hostage; Iran, fearing that the nation's oil and petroleum supply will be sabotaged, caves into soviet control of Iranian oil. In return, the Soviet Union supplies Iran with enough petroleum products to maintain the needs of Iran, and uses the oil as a means to gain power over the energy starved west; the Soviet Union sells Iranian petroleum to the United States at a considerably lower price than what OPEC is asking for, and gives all of the profit to the Iranian people/government.

I'm trying to refine this into something coherent, albeit far fetched, such that the Soviet Union still crumbles, but quickly reorganizes into an economic and military union of Eurasian/Asian nations that maintains individual identity and sovereignty of the member states, something like a Eurasian Union spanning from the Czech Republic to the Pacific ocean, including Japan.

My thanks for your input, I needed to get an idea of the feasibility of the spark for my story that creates the setting of a very different 1990's, and you have provided means with which to anchor my story in reality.
 
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