The Soufflé Rises Twice: An Australian Politics Wikibox tl

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The 1990 Federal Election

The 1990 election saw the ALP lose office on a 14 seat swing ending seven years of Labor government under Bob Hawke, and seeing the Liberal/National Coalition return to office under Andrew Peacock. The vast majority of the Coalition’s seat gains were in Peacock’s home state of Victoria, partly due to the deeply unpopular state Labor government. Two MHR’s aligned to neither of the major parties where elected, the Independent candidate Ted Mack defeated the Liberal shadow Foreign Affairs spokesman John Spender in North Sydney whilst the Australian Democrats Leader Janine Haines gained the South Australian seat of Kingston from the ALP.

 

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The 1993 Federal Election
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The Coalition entered office at the beginning of the early 1990s recession, and was blighted by the economic downturn. The Treasurer, John Hewson’s radical economic agenda dubbed “Hewsonomics” saw deep cuts in federal welfare expenditure including Medicare, the privatisation of state assets and the imposition of a 12% Goods and Services Tax. Hewsonomics proved deeply unpopular, and coupled with the government’s proposals to reform industrial relations mobilised popular opinion in favour of the opposition.

The former Treasurer Paul Keating had been elected unopposed as Bob Hawke’s successor as ALP Leader and proved a highly effective leader of the opposition, regularly besting Peacock in Parliament and launched an all out offensive on ‘Hewsonomics’. The January 1992 Newspoll showed the ALP ahead in the 2pp vote by a staggering 62-38 margin, which if repeated at an election would reduce the Coalition to fewer than 30 seats. This led Industrial Affairs Minister John Howard to challenge Andrew Peacock for the Liberal leadership, defeating him 48 votes to 42. Over the course of 1992 the government was able to claw back some support in the polls but remained consistently behind Labor.

In the end Labor won a landslide victory, winning a 31 seat majority in the House of Representatives. John Howard became, after Stanley Bruce, the second Prime Minister in Australian History to lose his own seat.

 

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The 1996 Federal Election​

John Hewson had defeated Peter Reith to succeed John Howard as Liberal Leader after the 1993 election. However the former Treasurer found himself spending most of his time defending the record of the previous government rather than taking the fight to Keating. In May 1994 Hewson was ousted as Leader, replaced by the 36 year old Peter Costello who had held a lower profile during the Peacock-Howard government and had been absent from the leadership turmoil of the 1980s. Labor benefitted from the economic recovery, with unemployment gradually falling throughout the 1993-96 parliament, and held a consistent lead in the opinion polls throughout the 1996 campaign.

The Keating government was returned to office for a second term but suffered a significant and unexpected swing against it.

 

[Griml0ck122]

Ah yes, Republic time.

 

[Sam R.]

I don't know Keating would have the guts/network/PR capacity to force the states to remove non-agricultural purpose self-loading rifles from households, and generally to disarm the household during the middle of the recession, and during the middle of "Double Murder Suicide / Triple Murder Suicide." Howard was far enough right to make that fly, and force the states. Keating may well roll on this, which keeps the rate of domestic murder higher during the peak of the recession for workers.

 

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The 1999 Federal Election
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By the time of the 1996 election Labor had been in power for 16 of the previous 19 years, and a general mood for change was in the air. Keating made Republicanism the major issue of the 1999 campaign, pledging a referendum on the issue if returned to power. Costello, whilst personally in favour of a Republic made clear that the economy would be his primary focus. The Coalition held a narrow lead for much of the campaign, but a strong performance by Keating in the Leaders Debate saw a last minute surge for the ALP.

Labor was returned to government for a third term, but with its majority in the House of Representatives reduced to just 4, with the Coalition narrowly winning the 2PP vote. Labor’s most notable casualty was the Deputy Prime Minister Kim Beazley, who lost the seat of Swan he had held since 1980.

 

[gaitskellitebevanite]

The 2002 Federal Election
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The ALP had won a third successive term in office in 1999, but the government’s sharply reduced majority was an example of Paul Keating’s waning popularity. The government held a referendum that November on whether to replace the Governor-General with an elected head of state, and despite the support of both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader Peter Costello by 50.5% to 49.5% the Australian electorate opted to reject a Republic. The result was sufficient to cause the resignation of Peter Costello and his replacement by Bronwyn Bishop, one of the leaders of the Monarchist campaign.

The referendum result left Keating visibly depressed, and he announced shortly afterwards that he would not seek to lead the ALP into a fourth election campaign. Much of the following year was dominated by the prospect of a leadership campaign before Keating finally resigned in October 2000, by which time he had surpassed Malcolm Fraser to become Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister. Kim Beazley had been Keating’s obvious successor as leader for much of the 1990s, but his absence from parliament opened the door to other potential candidates, notably the new Treasurer Gareth Evans and the Industry Minister Simon Crean. In a tight vote Evans defeated Crean to become Australia’s 27th Prime Minister.

Leadership turmoil continued in the opposition. After a strong start Bishop had become a divisive figure as opposition leader, and Evans’ succession as Prime Minister had seen the ALP open up a clear lead in the opinion polls, opening up the possibility of a snap election. A leadership spill was called and former Foreign Minister Peter Reith ousted Bishop as Liberal leader, quashing early election speculation. Reith sought to avoid ‘easy targets’ as opposition leader, abandoning long cherished Liberal policies for industrial relations reform. Instead the Liberals focused on the need for a change in government, and particularly on the issue of immigration as growing number of asylum seekers reached Australian shores through the course of 2001.

The 2002 campaign in the end was to be dominated by events on the far side of the world, with the 9/11 terrorist attacks bringing issues of national security to the forefront. The twin issues of terrorism and immigration helped usher in a swing of support in Labor’s heartlands towards the Liberals, and a 10 seat swing towards the Coalition, enough to bring to an end the Keating-Evans government.

 

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The 2004 Federal Election
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The Coalition had remained consistently, if narrowly, ahead of Labor throughout 2002 and 2003, and although Peter Reith’s decision to commit Australian troops to the Iraq War was controversial polls showed a majority of Australian’s supported the action. Simon Crean had been elected Gareth Evans’ successor as Labor leader unopposed after the 2002 election, but the ALP’s failure to move ahead in the polls did bring on leadership tensions. With a poll lead and a strong economy Reith decided to call an early election in October 2004.

The Coalition was returned to a second term in office for the first time in nearly 30 years, with a slightly increased majority.

 

[Kzzak]

Oooooo, an Australian politics ATL, how rare. Excited to see more!

 

[Waltzing Brunhilda]

As an Australian with some intrest and knowledge in the Keating Government, I must wonder how it looked ITTL. I'm also impressed that he didn't call a referendum on forming a Republic in his terms