The Song of The Three Eagles: A Graphics Timeline

Map: Eastern Europe and the Russian Intervention / Map: Austria-Hungary's Reformation
Introduction

Hello, and welcome to The Song of the Three Eagles! This graphics TL will focus on a classic scenario, a victory of the Central Powers in the First World War. However, just like the wonderful Thousand-Week Reich, I wish to be as realistic as possible in exploring a classic prompt.

The point of divergence of this TL is the same as in Kaiserreich: Germany keeps the Sussex Pledge and doesn’t reinstate unrestricted submarine warfare on February 1st, 1917. This manages to keep the United States out of the war, and without direct American support, the Entente is in a worse position. Some offensives are even canceled due to a bad economic and military situation, and in spring of 1918, an offensive similar to OTL’s Spring Offensive occurs. Without American troops and support, the Entente folds as the Germans reach the Channel ports and the outskirts of Paris. Peace is signed, with terms quite favorable for the Central Powers. We begin with two maps:

Map 1: Eastern Europe and the Russian Intervention (1918-1921)

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With the armistice of Luhansk signed on the 1st of February, 1918, conflict in the Eastern Front was over. However, Russia was still embroiled in conflict.

In February of 1917, the situation in Russia had reached a boiling point. The Tsarist regime had an abysmal popularity, and all kinds of radicals were protesting and fighting against the government. In mid-February, protests in Petrograd would be organized, and would only keep growing. Thousands of people gathered in the streets, and the army was ordered to crack down on the protesters. This simply backfired, as even some of the soldiers joined the revolutionary cause. Tsar Nicholas II would later be forced to abdicate in favor of Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich, who would refuse to be crowned Tsar until this was ratified by a Constituent Assembly.

Georgy Lvov became Prime Minister of the “Russian Provisional Government”, and an uneasy alliance between the democrats of the Provisional Government and the Soviets was formed. Of course, this alliance wouldn’t last for long, as the two factions had very different ideas. In October 1917, soon before the elections for the Constituent Assembly were held, Soviet militias made a move, launching a revolution and occupying many key locations, including the seat of the government. The Revolution had begun.

Immediately, cities were stormed and swept by Red guards, as the democratic government collapsed in record time. However, a key for the Soviets was the Constituent Assembly. While many including Lenin were opposed to such an assembly that, in their minds, was a bourgeois legislature, they understood it represented the will of the people and that the people supported it. Therefore, elections for the Assembly were allowed: the result was a big victory for the Socialist Revolutionaries, with the Kadets and Bolsheviks behind. However, the SRs would soon split between the pro-Bolsheviks and the anti-Bolsheviks, meaning many anti-Bolsheviks were now in the Assembly.

Following tensions between the different factions, Lenin reached a compromise: the Constituent Assembly would continue functioning as long as it agreed to carry out new elections to truly represent the people quite soon. After three weeks of convening, the second democratic elections in Russia’s history were held: the Bolsheviks and Left-SRs won a comfortable victory. Of course, some unconventional campaigning and ballot stuffing was involved, but at least democracy was respected to an extent. The Constituent Assembly would go on to pass many socialist laws, including the 1918 Russian Constitution, but possibly its most important duty would be to orchestrate a meeting between Russia and Germany to discuss peace terms.

The Armistice of Luhansk was signed on the 1st of February. The terms were particularly harsh for the Russians: Finland would be granted independence, while Poland, Ukraine and Crimea would become German satellites. Additionally, a loose confederation of 3 duchies named the United Baltic Duchy would be formed and ruled by Baltic German nobility. Finally, concessions were also made to the Ottomans. This was technically a victory for both sides, as both would have peace and could focus elsewhere, yet in reality both were not too fond of each other. However, a new threat would soon appear for the Russians as resistance to the radical regime grew.

The first hot-spot of resistance was in South Russia. Local cossack groups were not happy with the new regime, and so during the early spring launched uprisings to kick out the Bolsheviks, which they did. Soon, a united front mainly led by the Cossacks of the Don would take control of the region. Additionally, in Siberia, which was more difficult to administer, former Imperial soldiers as well as supporters of the republic (supporters of the monarchy were very few) also seized many cities, forcing the Bolsheviks east of the Urals to either retreat in large pockets or to withdraw to a line just east of Kazan and Samara.

It would take time for these groups to fall. Additionally, the Germans began supporting enemies of the Bolsheviks: the Principality of Belarus was founded in Ruthenian territories, the Don Cossacks received large amount of support in funds and weapons and so did the Northwest Russian Army, a force cornered in the Pskov area. These groups would also receive German “volunteer troops”, although often they were actual Heer units. Throughout 1918, the conflict between the Bolsheviks and the resistance groups was limited, although some advances were made in the east. However, in 1919, following a proper reorganization of the Revolutionary Army, new offensives began. The southern Russian resistance was pushed further and further into the mountains of the Caucasus, where they would eventually collaborate with local separatist forces or escape to the pro-Central Powers nations of the Caucasus.

Germany wished to take pressure off the anti-Bolsheviks, and so supported the so called “March on Petrograd”. With heavy support from Berlin, the Northwest Russian Army led by Rodzyanko and Yudenich began attacking northwards with the aim of taking Petrograd, a key city. The army would eventually approach the capital of the nation, but a coordinated Bolshevik counter-offensive sent them into retreat. Soon, Rodzyanko was forced back into his original territories, only being held up by the Central Powers. During 1919 and 1920, the Bolsheviks would make advances in Siberia and mostly crush the resistance there. This cemented their position as the dominant Russian government. Additionally, a new agreement with Germany was signed, recognizing the independence of the Principality of Belarus while getting permission to invade the rump Northwest Army, as they did not want to come into conflict with the Kaiserreich again.

The Belarus agreement marked the effective end of conflict in Eastern Europe and Russia. Now, Germany began long-term planning about the future of its sphere of influence in the east as outlined by the Armistice of Luhansk. Firstly, stable governments would need to be formed, although they were already in place for the most part. In Poland, a kingdom had been established, but a regency was in control until a king could be elected. This decision was made in 1919, with the expected candidate being chosen: Archduke Charles Stephen, member of the House of Habsburg, mostly due to his fluency in Polish and knowledge of Polish culture in general. With a king having been decided, the Regency Council was disbanded. Still, its members dominated Polish politics in the future.

In the United Baltic Duchy, Adolf Pilar von Pilchau had assumed the role of temporary leader on behalf of the German Kaiser. This position was maintained, with von Pilchau reigning as the representative of Wilhelm II. Lithuania also saw the installment of Prince Joachim, son of Wilhelm, as its King. Belarus would remain under a regency, until a proper prince could be found. The only country to be spared of a foreign monarch was Ukraine, which maintained a semi-democratic government heavily influenced by Germany and Austria. Additionally, the German High Command formed a plan for a proper military defense and “occupation” of all these territories. As long as the country remained at peace, a garrison composed of approximately 20% German troops and 80% local ones would be formed and stationed across these satellite states. (Of course, even the local troops would be commanded by Germans) This was considered by the Ludendorff junta a good balance that would not keep too many Heer troops in the east, but still maintain a large force to fight foreign enemies or uprisings that would be inevitable.

With the stabilization of the eastern lands through military and political effort, the German government turned towards integrating the economies and exploiting the resources of their satellites. For this reason, on the 2nd of August, 1922, representatives from the governments of Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania met to negotiate the creation of Mitteleuropa, a strong economic union designed for Germany to dominate it. While these satellites would get the short straw, later on in its history Mitteleuropa would allow a “limited cooperation” to encourage other European nations to participate without suffering from these harsh terms.

Map 2: Austria-Hungary’s Reformation

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By the time the war ended in June 1918, Austria-Hungary was admittedly quite exhausted. While the war had put a strain on its resources, the most important problem for the Austro-Hungarian government was the ethnic trouble. For centuries, the Habsburgs had managed to rule over numerous nationalities, most of which despised German rule. However, now, with the rise of nationalism and the First World War, the Empire could be reaching its breaking point.

The Kaiser of the Empire, Karl I of Austria, had shown his willingness to reform the empire and give rights to the other ethnicities throughout the war. With peace being signed, Austria had mostly achieved its goals: Serbia had been punished and weakened, Italy had been neutralized and in the east the Empire shared control of Ukraine with Germany. Now, all that remained was to pacify the interior. This became increasingly urgent in December 1918, as throughout the month there was unrest in areas under the heel of the Empire, like in Galicia, Croatia and Bohemia. On the 25th of December, Christmas Day, Karl made an address to the country, in which he outlined the plans for the reforms that would take place in Austria-Hungary.

The Christmas Declaration called for the lands belonging to Austria-Hungary, instead of following a dual monarchy between Austria and Hungary, to become a federal union based on ethnic boundaries, with all states under the control of the monarch yet for them to have wide autonomy including a local parliament. Additionally, rights and local representation would be guaranteed for ethnicities outside their nation’s borders since that was also a common occurrence. Over the next months, the details and borders were ironed out (although they mostly followed Aurel Popovici’s pre-war plans), and in January 22, the vote in parliament was held. It passed, although with some difficulty, and three days later the Empire would change forever. Despite the opposition of certain groups, the Federation of the Danubian Crowns would come out of the post-war period, but still, people questioned whether this was enough to ensure its survival.
 
Great start and impressive maps. However I'm admittedly skeptical of the federalized A-H trope, at least how you handled it--certain ethnic groups would be very open to it but others (namely the Hungarians) would have certainly taken a hard line against it. Given the nature of the dual monarchy I could see a Hungarian secession attempt that would drag Germany into yet another aftermath-war.
 
Great start and impressive maps. However I'm admittedly skeptical of the federalized A-H trope, at least how you handled it--certain ethnic groups would be very open to it but others (namely the Hungarians) would have certainly taken a hard line against it. Given the nature of the dual monarchy I could see a Hungarian secession attempt that would drag Germany into yet another aftermath-war.
Actually, you are very close to what I had in mind. Karl had shown his willingness to make such reforms during his reign and it is quite possible he would have done that post-war with a dire situation. And yes, the Hungarians are pretty much pissed with what has happened. As I said in the post: "Despite the opposition of certain groups, the Federation of the Danubian Crowns would come out of the post-war period, but still, people questioned whether this was enough to ensure its survival."
 

Deleted member 107125

Wow, I like this already! Certainly following.
 
Map: The Bloody Peace
And we're back! Sorry for the delay due to school and stuff, but here is the new map, mostly to set the background for the future world, mostly:

Map 3: The Bloody Peace:
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The Mai-Angriff (May Attack) of the Heer on the Western Front was key to the peace agreement reached in 1918. The collapse of the front was massively important to the Entente, as within three weeks of the attack the Germans were on the outskirts of Paris. What was even worse was that the French army was in mutiny, with revolt also possible, meaning that the Germans were in a position to take the capital of France. Therefore, the governments of the Entente immediately seeked peace negotiations.

When negotiations began in early June behind the scenes, the Central Powers had some high ground. The obvious advantage they had was in the West, with Paris almost under occupation. Of course, Germany did not actively seek to bring all these occupied territories under their fold, but they knew that it would be an extremely powerful bargaining chip, especially against France. The peace negotiations were mostly done in secret, but it was assumed that they had begun with the Allies in such a dire situation. This was confirmed with the Paris Armistice, signed on June 7th. The armistice was mostly handled by France, Germany and Britain, that soon urged their respective allies to follow it. For now, it mostly called for the end of fighting on the current frontlines, while diplomats from both sides were working hard to find final terms.

German diplomats initially sought to “compromise” by leaving areas in the west to the Allies in exchange for other gains, especially colonial. For example, Belgium, even though it was entirely under German occupation, was agreed to be left independent and not a protectorate in exchange for German annexation of the Belgian Congo. All former German colonies in Africa were also returned, as Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck was still on a rampage in Tanganyika and Mozambique which was also a bargaining chip. This allowed a connection between Kamerun and Ostafrika, a first step towards the ultimate German goals in Africa.

Additionally, Germany agreed to not pursue extensive annexations against France in exchange for “African colonial concessions”, which translated to handing over Gabon, the French Congo and Ubangi-Shari. While it was a big concession, the French government had no choice with the Germans near Paris. Now, Germany had a strong united colony from Kamerun to Tanganyika. Finally, the German delegation managed to pull off another maneuver: in the Pacific, German presence was non-existence, aside from a few hundred troops in Papua that refused to surrender. Britain was in the position to defend any of its colonies, but Germany put pressure on them by reminding them of France. A deal that would satisfy both sides was reached: Kaiser-Wilhelmsland, as well as all German Pacific Islands under Commonwealth occupation would be given to the Empire in exchange for a part of Northern Rhodesia. That part mostly corresponded to Barotseland, aside from a large strip of land near Botswana which still allowed the British to use the infrastructure there to effectively supply the rest of the colony. This, coupled with a border adjustment with Angola north of the Caprivi strip created a connection between Südwestafrika and the Congo.

After from the colonial affairs settled heavily in the Kaiserreich’s favor, the final borders in the Western front had to be decided. Big concessions like the independence of Belgium and no Channel ports had been made, but Germany still wanted some minor border adjustments. As expected, Luxembourg was annexed in its entirety. Belgium only lost an area in Arlon to the southeast, while France also lost a small area covering Longwy and Brie near the border. While on a map, it seemed quite minor, it was important for the Central Powers. The area had large iron and coal deposits, while before the war the industrial complex in Longwy was the 3rd largest producer of pig iron and 2nd largest producer of steel in Europe. Finally, a demilitarized zone running across the Belgian/French-German border would be created, and no troops would be allowed there.

As for Italy, they had also been defeated for the most part in the battles of the Alps in mid-1918 together with France. They wouldn’t suffer as much as other Entente members, only losing some territories in Veneto and ending all territorial ambitions against Austria-Hungary.

Agreements also had to be reached in the rest of Europe, where the Central Powers had achieved dominance, as well as the Middle East. In the Eastern Front, the Entente could accept nothing but accept the de facto situation: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and the United Baltic Duchy were recognized. The same went for Romania, which had fallen after fighting bravely for the Entente. In their case, the 1918 agreement between them and the Central Powers was recognized: Bulgaria took the entirety of Dobruja (although the mouth of Danube was in a special situation and was accessed by all Central Powers as well as Romania itself), and Romanian oil and grain were allowed to be given to Germany and Austria should they request it. In exchange, Bessarabia was united with Romania.

In the Balkans, things were also quite simple. With Serbia having fallen, Bulgaria would gain the areas promised to it in 1915, while the rest would remain a rump, sovereign state. While it wouldn’t become a Central Powers satellite, Serbia would have to pay massive war reparations and accept the terms of the original ultimatum of July 23, 1914. The ultimatum included the Serbian government ceasing support to any anti-Austro-Hungarian groups and any such rhetoric, and Austria would also send a diplomatic mission to ensure the “suppression of subversive movements”, as well as name a list civilians and commanders to be removed from office. Montenegro would also face large war reparations and Austrian meddling. The other Entente state in the region, Greece, only got a slap on the wrist as they hadn’t been defeated, and a small area up to the Struma river in Thrace was annexed to Bulgaria.

Finally, an agreement had to be reached regarding the Middle East. With the “Sick Man of Europe” still holding on with support from their allies, the end result was effectively a return to the status quo. Still, an unresolved issue was the Arab Revolt, as neither the Ottomans nor the Arabs wanted to make peace at this point. Therefore, this was not acknowledged in the treaty, with only vague promises by the Entente not to support any such groups within Ottoman territory.

In the end, all these informal and formal agreements would be summarised in the Treaty of the Hague, signed on the 28th of July, 1918. The treaty would shape the world for the years to come.
 
So WWI is over except in the Middle East? And I sense more trouble in Eastern Europe to come...
Only the Arab Revolt continues in the Middle East, because the Arabs are not exactly eager to just let the Ottomans take them over. As for Eastern Europe, they will be mostly stable, aside from perhaps Austria-Hungary...
 
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