The slow death of German Nationalism?

Introduction to the Austro-Prussian War

Not by speeches and votes of the majority, are the great questions of the time decided — that was the error of 1848 and 1849 — but by iron and blood.
Otto von Bismarck
(Prime Minister of Prussia 1862-1868)

From the perspective of the 21. century, a movement advocating for a united country of all German speaking people in Central Europe seems weird. But various historians argued, that the 1848 revolution and the Austro-Prussian War offered real possibilities for the creation of such a power, which might have disrupted the European balance of power.

Instead the traumatic Austro-Prussian War is seen as the beginning of the slow death of Pangerman Nationalism and the decline of the Austrian Empire and Prussia in modern academia.

The term “Austro-Prussian War” is misleading. The war was not limited to Austria and Prussia. Italy and Hungarian Nationalists (at the end of the war) fought outside of the German Confederation against the Austrians. The medium and small countries of the "Third Germany" ("Drittes Deutschland") participated in the war against Prussia. Various names where used for the war in the past but fell out of use due to various reasons. German Civil War or Brothers War (“Deutscher Bürgerkrieg” or “Bruderkrieg” in German) where used in contemporary media, but the decline of Pangerman Nationalism after the conflict lead to the widespread use of the name “Austro-Prussian War” or “War of the Confederation” (“Österreichisch-Preußischer Krieg” or “Bundeskrieg” in German). In international academia, “War of the Confederation” is rarely used as a term since it is often mistaken for other civil wars with similar names.

The Austro-Prussian war is often compared to the American Civil War, since they shared various similarities. Both where traumatic events and lasted for several years. Both showed the world the possibilities and horrors of industrialized warfare. But while the American Civil War resulted in the reunification of the USA and a stronger national identity, the Austro-Prussian war lead to the final dissolution of the German Confederation and decisively weakened Pangerman Nationalism.

...

Under most circumstances the 1860ies are probably far to late to seriously stop German Nationalism. I still want to try it, by expanding the length of the Austro-Prussian war which should now become a traumatic event (and not the short war in OTL). I wonder how the various German States would develop, if they remain independent. I don't know how far I want or will develop this timeline. I want to focus on the development of various German states and the international consequences of the lack of a unified Germany. I'm not an expert of military history, and this timeline probably won't focus too much on warfare and strategies. I still want to describe some of the events of the longer Austro-Prussian war.
Ideas, comments, questions?
 
It affects Italy a lot since they did not get the Austrian lands of the 1866 wars, nor would they have Rome as their capital city.
 
Unless you have them lose and lose fairly big I assume Prussia will retain its strangle hold on northern Germany to such an extent that Prussian because synonymous with North German the same way English is often thought of as synonymous with British in America
 
Germany wouldn't nearly grow as much economically without unification. The broken up nature of Germany largely hindered economic development for centuries, as there were no standardized weights or measurements, you had to take into account tariffs from traveling through a dozen different German 'states' just to reach France, and the clusterfuck that was legal issues regarding sovereignty, patents, jurisdiction, movement between states, etc. All this is one of the reasons Germany became a powerhouse so quickly after unification.

Although now that I think of it, I think there was some sort of economic alliance between numerous German states before the POD. The...Zollverein? Can't remember, this isn't exactly an era I'm too familiar with:coldsweat:. If that is the case though, then there's already economic movements supporting unification to some degree. Not to mention nationalism only continued to grow into modern times, so even a terrible war that dampens it for a time is unlikely to put an end to pan-German nationalism. It'd probably just be delayed two or three decades.

However to meet the challenge, I'll assume it is prevented somehow. So the war goes badly for everyone. Prussia, unless it is completely eviscerated as a military power, would wreak a bloody vengeance against the nearby small German states that fought against it. A unification of at least northern Germany by war, which might arguably serve to more decisively dampen pan-German movements if Prussia ended up conquering and integrating everything in northern Germany afterwards. Austria would be dealing with Hungary, but would also likely attempt to spread its influence in southern Germany. I doubt it could do both. Hungary would be the greater priority, but after such a war I'm not sure Austria could hold onto it. So it might turn to southern Germany. So I'd say in this scenario Germany being split between a Prussian state in northern Germany and an Austrian state in southern Germany.
 
Hungarians fighting on the side of the Prussians? Very unlikely despite the political situation there.

The Hungarians were very distrustful and outright hostile to the Prussians- The Hungarian elite and bourgeoisie were relatively liberal at the time and significantly idealistic and the press repeatedly criticised Prussia between the 1840s and 60s. I really doubt they would team up with 'reactionaries' to declare independence- Independence wasn't really in the Hungarian agenda outside of the radicals by 1866 in the first place, restoration of autonomy was. The Russian intervention in '49 and Prussian posturing made the Hungarian politicians all too aware of their diplomatic and geopolitical position and dependence on Austria.

Either way, if you want to stifle (pan-)German nationalism, isn't it more logical to put Austria in a more stable position for 1866 instead of weakening it with another Hungarian revolution? Austria's OTL performance (with some significant but ultimately useless exceptions) was very poor, after all, and that was with the Hungarians vaguely cooperating and the Austrian armies led by a Hungarian.
 
Germany wouldn't nearly grow as much economically without unification. The broken up nature of Germany largely hindered economic development for centuries, as there were no standardized weights or measurements, you had to take into account tariffs from traveling through a dozen different German 'states' just to reach France, and the clusterfuck that was legal issues regarding sovereignty, patents, jurisdiction, movement between states, etc. All this is one of the reasons Germany became a powerhouse so quickly after unification.

Although now that I think of it, I think there was some sort of economic alliance between numerous German states before the POD. The...Zollverein? Can't remember, this isn't exactly an era I'm too familiar with:coldsweat:. If that is the case though, then there's already economic movements supporting unification to some degree. Not to mention nationalism only continued to grow into modern times, so even a terrible war that dampens it for a time is unlikely to put an end to pan-German nationalism. It'd probably just be delayed two or three decades.

However to meet the challenge, I'll assume it is prevented somehow. So the war goes badly for everyone. Prussia, unless it is completely eviscerated as a military power, would wreak a bloody vengeance against the nearby small German states that fought against it. A unification of at least northern Germany by war, which might arguably serve to more decisively dampen pan-German movements if Prussia ended up conquering and integrating everything in northern Germany afterwards. Austria would be dealing with Hungary, but would also likely attempt to spread its influence in southern Germany. I doubt it could do both. Hungary would be the greater priority, but after such a war I'm not sure Austria could hold onto it. So it might turn to southern Germany. So I'd say in this scenario Germany being split between a Prussian state in northern Germany and an Austrian state in southern Germany.

Yeah, the Zollverein was already a thing since 1824, and by 1854 it covered all of what became the Kaiserreich except for Schleswig-Holstein (due to its weird status), the Cities of Hamburg and Lübeck, the two Mecklenburgs, and the tiny state of Schaumburg-Lippe located between Hanover and Westphalia. Regarding units of measurement North Germany IOTL adopted the Metric system in 1868, the South German states followed suit in 1869, and Austria in 1872/76. So personally I don't see a more disunited Germany halting the adoption of the Metric system by the end of the 1870s.

Also I'm no expert on the economic situation of Germany prior to unification but Prussia was not only a powerhouse in terms of its military but also in terms of industry. The provinces of Silesia and Westphalia in particular were important producers of coal and steel, and the South German states were mostly agrarian. Now assuming that Prussia can still dominate (most of) North Germany, they'll still have economic leverage in Europe
 
If Prussia loses the war, I do not think he loses any land, only influence, since the British would still like a strong prussia to be an ally against Napoleon's France. since without a united Germany, the United Kingdom and France will continue as enemies.
 
If Prussia loses the war, I do not think he loses any land, only influence, since the British would still like a strong prussia to be an ally against Napoleon's France. since without a united Germany, the United Kingdom and France will continue as enemies.

Napoleon III was a committed Anglophile
 
Thank you for your replies and comments.
It affects Italy a lot since they did not get the Austrian lands of the 1866 wars, nor would they have Rome as their capital city.
Let's see. I don't know exactly what will happen with Italy. It seems as if Rome and the independence of the Vatican depends a lot on French support.

Unless you have them lose and lose fairly big I assume Prussia will retain its strangle hold on northern Germany to such an extent that Prussian because synonymous with North German the same way English is often thought of as synonymous with British in America
If Prussia maintains the control over the Rhineland. Let's see what will happen.

Germany wouldn't nearly grow as much economically without unification. The broken up nature of Germany largely hindered economic development for centuries, as there were no standardized weights or measurements, you had to take into account tariffs from traveling through a dozen different German 'states' just to reach France, and the clusterfuck that was legal issues regarding sovereignty, patents, jurisdiction, movement between states, etc. All this is one of the reasons Germany became a powerhouse so quickly after unification.

Although now that I think of it, I think there was some sort of economic alliance between numerous German states before the POD. The...Zollverein? Can't remember, this isn't exactly an era I'm too familiar with:coldsweat:. If that is the case though, then there's already economic movements supporting unification to some degree. Not to mention nationalism only continued to grow into modern times, so even a terrible war that dampens it for a time is unlikely to put an end to pan-German nationalism. It'd probably just be delayed two or three decades.

However to meet the challenge, I'll assume it is prevented somehow. So the war goes badly for everyone. Prussia, unless it is completely eviscerated as a military power, would wreak a bloody vengeance against the nearby small German states that fought against it. A unification of at least northern Germany by war, which might arguably serve to more decisively dampen pan-German movements if Prussia ended up conquering and integrating everything in northern Germany afterwards. Austria would be dealing with Hungary, but would also likely attempt to spread its influence in southern Germany. I doubt it could do both. Hungary would be the greater priority, but after such a war I'm not sure Austria could hold onto it. So it might turn to southern Germany. So I'd say in this scenario Germany being split between a Prussian state in northern Germany and an Austrian state in southern Germany.

Yeah, the Zollverein was already a thing since 1824, and by 1854 it covered all of what became the Kaiserreich except for Schleswig-Holstein (due to its weird status), the Cities of Hamburg and Lübeck, the two Mecklenburgs, and the tiny state of Schaumburg-Lippe located between Hanover and Westphalia. Regarding units of measurement North Germany IOTL adopted the Metric system in 1868, the South German states followed suit in 1869, and Austria in 1872/76. So personally I don't see a more disunited Germany halting the adoption of the Metric system by the end of the 1870s.

Also I'm no expert on the economic situation of Germany prior to unification but Prussia was not only a powerhouse in terms of its military but also in terms of industry. The provinces of Silesia and Westphalia in particular were important producers of coal and steel, and the South German states were mostly agrarian. Now assuming that Prussia can still dominate (most of) North Germany, they'll still have economic leverage in Europe

As Iserlohn mentioned, the Zollverein existed. The industrialization started before the political unification partially thanks to the Zollverein. Later the Zollverein participated in the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty, a free trade agreement between Britain and France, which opened many markets for the Zollverein. A horrible war could maybe destroy the Zollverein and delay the "Second Industrial Revolution" in Germany. More conflict between Britain and France could harm Cobden-Chevalier. As a result, the various German States could try to get free trade with their neighbors.
Even in OTL Prussia lost some sympathy for annexing various North German States (Kingdom of Hannover, Kurfürstentum Hessen-Kassel, Free City of Frankfurt).
Let's see this economic disintegration could dampen nationalism.
One economic problem for South Germany would be, that they need coal for their industrialization.


Hungarians fighting on the side of the Prussians? Very unlikely despite the political situation there.

The Hungarians were very distrustful and outright hostile to the Prussians- The Hungarian elite and bourgeoisie were relatively liberal at the time and significantly idealistic and the press repeatedly criticised Prussia between the 1840s and 60s. I really doubt they would team up with 'reactionaries' to declare independence- Independence wasn't really in the Hungarian agenda outside of the radicals by 1866 in the first place, restoration of autonomy was. The Russian intervention in '49 and Prussian posturing made the Hungarian politicians all too aware of their diplomatic and geopolitical position and dependence on Austria.

Either way, if you want to stifle (pan-)German nationalism, isn't it more logical to put Austria in a more stable position for 1866 instead of weakening it with another Hungarian revolution? Austria's OTL performance (with some significant but ultimately useless exceptions) was very poor, after all, and that was with the Hungarians vaguely cooperating and the Austrian armies led by a Hungarian.

Thank you for your comments on Hungary. I don't know much about Hungarian nationalism, and need to do more research about Hungary in the 1860ies. I only heard, that Bismarck tried to contact Hungarian nationalists in OTL before the war. As far as I know, nothing happened in OTL. But could this change during or after a long war, especial if the Empire is exhausted and many Hungarians died on foreign soil in central Germany for a pointless war? (What if they demand more autonomy during the war, but this gets rejected?)

I don't want to strengthen Austria too much in the timeline. Austria could gain a far better position in OTL with a little bit of luck, even if they had some serious disadvantages.
A stronger Austria would mean a preservation of the German Confederacy. In the long run, this Confederacy could reform slowly into a closer (but still loose) Federation. There was even in OTL a meeting for this, lead by Austria but Prussia declined to participate.

Napoleon III was a committed Anglophile
Good to know. I wonder if further adventures and territorial ambitions of Napoleon III could harm British-French relations.
 
Thank you for your replies and comments.



Thank you for your comments on Hungary. I don't know much about Hungarian nationalism, and need to do more research about Hungary in the 1860ies. I only heard, that Bismarck tried to contact Hungarian nationalists in OTL before the war. As far as I know, nothing happened in OTL. But could this change during or after a long war, especial if the Empire is exhausted and many Hungarians died on foreign soil in central Germany for a pointless war? (What if they demand more autonomy during the war, but this gets rejected?)

I don't want to strengthen Austria too much in the timeline. Austria could gain a far better position in OTL with a little bit of luck, even if they had some serious disadvantages.
A stronger Austria would mean a preservation of the German Confederacy. In the long run, this Confederacy could reform slowly into a closer (but still loose) Federation. There was even in OTL a meeting for this, lead by Austria but Prussia declined to participate.

I guess it depends on the PoD. And if it's true that Bismarck tried to contact the Hungarians and failed, that should tell you something. ;) Napoleon had tried- The Hungarians' loyalty is seriously underestimated.

Also, wouldn't this expanded Austro-Prussian War take place in Austrian Bohemia like OTL? It's the best way for Prussia to take the fight to Austria. Fighting on Austrian soil would very much change things.

If the war does take place in the middle of Germany somehow, then expect the Hungarian, Czech, Polish and Croat elites (maybe with the liberals and German-Austrians that are not German nationalists) to form a united front and pressure Vienna to make peace or face rebelion. The non-Hungarian ones already had one pre-1866, but Hungary didn't join them since they were still protesting their lost autonomy and refused to joim them in the new Diet. Given an extended bloody war, it would be logical to finally join a united opposition. This causes quite the butterflies, I might add.

In fact, wouldn't dissent at home for Austria and the threat of intervention from the other Great Powers be a good catalyst to end the war in a stalemate? Just my idea, since I'm definitely onterested in this despite my criticism. :biggrin:
 
In fact, wouldn't dissent at home for Austria and the threat of intervention from the other Great Powers be a good catalyst to end the war in a stalemate? Just my idea, since I'm definitely onterested in this despite my criticism. :biggrin:

Well, I want to create a bad stalemate. Constructive criticism helps. Now I see where I have to do more research and see various alternative possibilities.
 
I did some basic research on the situation in Hungary. (Still not enough for the final development of their situation in my timeline)
We probably have three different groups among hungarian elites after 1849. Some where loyal to the Habsburgs, most practiced passive resistance (while being open to a compromise which grants their autonomy and rights) and radicals who wanted independence but where partially in exile (even some form of government in exile existed).
Contacts and cooperation between these exiles, Napoleon III and Alexandru Ioan Cuza (Prince/Domintur of Romania) existed in OTL before the Second Italian War of Independence (1859). (Certainly with various interesting PODs, which are not that useful for TTL).

Austrian military presence in Hungary will probably remain strong as long as we only see short wars.

While we see in the 1860ies the development to a compromise with the monarchy, we still see skepticism and passive resistance. It seems, as if a failure of the various talks and negotiations toward the compromise is possible.

I must conclude from this information, that an nationalist uprising in parts of Hungary after or during a long war of the Austrian Empire is possible (probably in a late stage, when the people are tired of the war). Such an uprising has a high chance of failure, and it seems likely that only parts of the Hungarian elites would support it. But such an uprising could still influence other events of the Austro-Prussian war.
 
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