I’ll do some more at some point.
So while Thande stopped being involved, is not dead yet
The Sixteen States of America
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
So while Thande stopped being involved, is not dead yet
Well. Time to do 1988. Bush and Dukakis!
As outlined in this post, there are only 13 states at this point, to maintain reasonable population similarity. After the 1990 census, the new states of North California would form from Pacifica, South Carolina from Apachea, and Florida from Yazoo. But in 1988, we now only have 13 states.
1988 presidential election
Pacifica (36 EVs): Dukakis wins by 4.7%. He would have won both North California and Pacifica had we been using the 16 states, so this is little surprise. This is actually his strongest state!
Apachea (48 EVs): Bush wins by 13.5%, a comfortable victory. He'd have won both South California and Apachea under the 16-state model.
New Germany (34 EVs): Now this one is close. Dukakis had won Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but Bush had won the west. In the end Bush narrowly prevails, by 0.17%, or just 13684 votes.
Texas (29 EVs): Easy one to calculate. Bush wins by 12.6%, as in reality.
LaSalle (34 EVs): Bush wins comfortably by 10.1%.
Yazoo (44 EVs): Bush wins here by 21.3%. I suppose Bush's massive success here compared to in LaSalle was an indicator of the relatively higher residual Democratic strength in LaSalle, which allowed Clinton's breakthrough there in 1992.
Wabash (35 EVs): Bush carries this by 7.9%- exactly the same as what Clinton's victory margin would be four years later.
Carolina (28 EVs): Bush wins by 17.9%. Still totally dominating the south.
Erie (41 EVs): Bush wins by 9.5%. Seeing these victory margins in most of the midwest, I'm gaining more surprise at the way Dukakis managed to keep New Germany so close...
Roanoke (32 EVs): Bush wins by 10.7%. Keeping up the total domination.
Atlantea (39 EVs): Bush carries it by 7.0%. Less than in most states, but still easily good enough.
New York (36 EVs): Same as reality, a Dukakis win by 4.1%.
New England (25 EVs): Well this is rather embarrassing for Dukakis. He loses his home state by 0.16%, or just 9492 votes. Closest state in this election.
and DC is Dukakis by 68.3%.
Add the electoral votes, and you get:
George H. W. Bush (Republican): 389
Michael Dukakis (Democratic): 75
Quite the Bush landslide, though not too different from reality. Had Dukakis only managed to win the incredibly close New England and New Germany, though, it'd've been a slightly more respectable 330-134.
As outlined in this post, there are only 13 states at this point, to maintain reasonable population similarity. After the 1990 census, the new states of North California would form from Pacifica, South Carolina from Apachea, and Florida from Yazoo. But in 1988, we now only have 13 states.
1988 presidential election
Pacifica (36 EVs): Dukakis wins by 4.7%. He would have won both North California and Pacifica had we been using the 16 states, so this is little surprise. This is actually his strongest state!
Apachea (48 EVs): Bush wins by 13.5%, a comfortable victory. He'd have won both South California and Apachea under the 16-state model.
New Germany (34 EVs): Now this one is close. Dukakis had won Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but Bush had won the west. In the end Bush narrowly prevails, by 0.17%, or just 13684 votes.
Texas (29 EVs): Easy one to calculate. Bush wins by 12.6%, as in reality.
LaSalle (34 EVs): Bush wins comfortably by 10.1%.
Yazoo (44 EVs): Bush wins here by 21.3%. I suppose Bush's massive success here compared to in LaSalle was an indicator of the relatively higher residual Democratic strength in LaSalle, which allowed Clinton's breakthrough there in 1992.
Wabash (35 EVs): Bush carries this by 7.9%- exactly the same as what Clinton's victory margin would be four years later.
Carolina (28 EVs): Bush wins by 17.9%. Still totally dominating the south.
Erie (41 EVs): Bush wins by 9.5%. Seeing these victory margins in most of the midwest, I'm gaining more surprise at the way Dukakis managed to keep New Germany so close...
Roanoke (32 EVs): Bush wins by 10.7%. Keeping up the total domination.
Atlantea (39 EVs): Bush carries it by 7.0%. Less than in most states, but still easily good enough.
New York (36 EVs): Same as reality, a Dukakis win by 4.1%.
New England (25 EVs): Well this is rather embarrassing for Dukakis. He loses his home state by 0.16%, or just 9492 votes. Closest state in this election.
and DC is Dukakis by 68.3%.
Add the electoral votes, and you get:
George H. W. Bush (Republican): 389
Michael Dukakis (Democratic): 75
Quite the Bush landslide, though not too different from reality. Had Dukakis only managed to win the incredibly close New England and New Germany, though, it'd've been a slightly more respectable 330-134.
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I find it interesting to see how the geography of politics changed by using equally sized states. I never realized the west coast became a Democratic strong area earlier than I expected and how well Clinton performed in the South and plains compared to other Democratic candidates.
1984 presidential election
First things first, we all know who's winning here. In fact I'll give the results straight up: Reagan 461 electoral votes, and 3 for Walter Mondale (DC). Any interesting stuff will lie in the margins rather than who wins each state.
Pacifica (36 EVs): Reagan wins by 15.5%. A decent margin considering that this would become the bluest state in the nation just four years later.
Apachea (48 EVs): Reagan wins by 27.61%. This is his best result nationwide- not exactly surprising that his best result would be in the west, given the home state factor.
New Germany (34 EVs): Reagan wins by 14.1%. Mondale's home state, which doubtless helped keep the margin down a bit.
Texas (29 EVs): Reagan wins by 27.57%, very nearly his best result but slightly behind Apachea. Impressive that the Republicans are already this entrenched in the South, given the start of Republican strength there is relatively recent at this point.
LaSalle (34 EVs): Reagan wins by 26.3%. Again very solid south.
Yazoo (44 EVs): Reagan wins by 26.4%. His third-best state.
Wabash (35 EVs): Reagan wins by 16.5%. Not bad.
Carolina (28 EVs): Reagan wins by 22.1%. A bit less than elsewhere in the south, but still strong.
Erie (41 EVs): Reagan wins by 19.0%. Interesting that this was to the right of the nation (he'd won the national popular vote by 18.2%).
Roanoke (32 EVs): Reagan wins by 17.0%.
Atlantea (39 EVs): Reagan wins by 12.82%. Mondale was evidently better in the northeast than elsewhere.
New York (36 EVs): Mondale's best state. He only lost by 8.0%.
New England (25 EVs): Reagan wins by 12.81%- Mondale's second-best state.
and DC went for Mondale by 71.7%. Well, at least he got something. Surprisingly better than Dukakis would end up doing four years later.
First things first, we all know who's winning here. In fact I'll give the results straight up: Reagan 461 electoral votes, and 3 for Walter Mondale (DC). Any interesting stuff will lie in the margins rather than who wins each state.
Pacifica (36 EVs): Reagan wins by 15.5%. A decent margin considering that this would become the bluest state in the nation just four years later.
Apachea (48 EVs): Reagan wins by 27.61%. This is his best result nationwide- not exactly surprising that his best result would be in the west, given the home state factor.
New Germany (34 EVs): Reagan wins by 14.1%. Mondale's home state, which doubtless helped keep the margin down a bit.
Texas (29 EVs): Reagan wins by 27.57%, very nearly his best result but slightly behind Apachea. Impressive that the Republicans are already this entrenched in the South, given the start of Republican strength there is relatively recent at this point.
LaSalle (34 EVs): Reagan wins by 26.3%. Again very solid south.
Yazoo (44 EVs): Reagan wins by 26.4%. His third-best state.
Wabash (35 EVs): Reagan wins by 16.5%. Not bad.
Carolina (28 EVs): Reagan wins by 22.1%. A bit less than elsewhere in the south, but still strong.
Erie (41 EVs): Reagan wins by 19.0%. Interesting that this was to the right of the nation (he'd won the national popular vote by 18.2%).
Roanoke (32 EVs): Reagan wins by 17.0%.
Atlantea (39 EVs): Reagan wins by 12.82%. Mondale was evidently better in the northeast than elsewhere.
New York (36 EVs): Mondale's best state. He only lost by 8.0%.
New England (25 EVs): Reagan wins by 12.81%- Mondale's second-best state.
and DC went for Mondale by 71.7%. Well, at least he got something. Surprisingly better than Dukakis would end up doing four years later.
Naturally DC still votes Democratic, even as the rest of the country votes Republican.
Off the top of my head, I figure Bush and Mondale, when they led their tickets, benefited from their longer history in federal politics.
Moving onto the 1980 election, we'll need to know the electoral vote totals used prior to the 1980 census. This will apply for the elections of 1980, 1976, and 1972. Let's see.
Pacifica: After 1980 it had had 36 EVs. Before 1980 it has just 33 EVs- must have been some population growth there.
Apachea: After 1980 it had had 48 EVs, but before 1980 it only has 40! A massive change.
New Germany: After 1980 it had 34 EVs, but before it has 36 EVs. So it experienced some population loss.
Texas: After 1980 it had had 29 EVs, but before it only has 26.
LaSalle After 1980 it had 34 EVs; before, it has 35. Shrunk slightly.
Yazoo: After 1980 it had 44 EVs; before, it has 39. Another state which grew a lot.
Wabash: Had 35 EVs after 1980, but 37 before. Not surprising for a rust belt state.
Carolina: Had 28 EVs after 1980; 27 before. Grew slightly.
Erie: Had 41 EVs after 1980; has 44 before. Another rust belt state, not surprising.
Roanoke: The state that keeps the same number of EVs. 32, before and after.
Atlantea: Had 39 EVs after 1980; has 42 before. Another state that's dropped a bit.
New York: After 1980 it has 36 EVs; before, it had 41. A drop of 5, impressive.
New England: 25 EVs after 1980, 27 before. Also shrunk a bit.
So we can see the Northeast and Midwest were declining at the time whilst the South and West were growing.
Map; states coloured by whether they grew/shrank:
Pacifica: After 1980 it had had 36 EVs. Before 1980 it has just 33 EVs- must have been some population growth there.
Apachea: After 1980 it had had 48 EVs, but before 1980 it only has 40! A massive change.
New Germany: After 1980 it had 34 EVs, but before it has 36 EVs. So it experienced some population loss.
Texas: After 1980 it had had 29 EVs, but before it only has 26.
LaSalle After 1980 it had 34 EVs; before, it has 35. Shrunk slightly.
Yazoo: After 1980 it had 44 EVs; before, it has 39. Another state which grew a lot.
Wabash: Had 35 EVs after 1980, but 37 before. Not surprising for a rust belt state.
Carolina: Had 28 EVs after 1980; 27 before. Grew slightly.
Erie: Had 41 EVs after 1980; has 44 before. Another rust belt state, not surprising.
Roanoke: The state that keeps the same number of EVs. 32, before and after.
Atlantea: Had 39 EVs after 1980; has 42 before. Another state that's dropped a bit.
New York: After 1980 it has 36 EVs; before, it had 41. A drop of 5, impressive.
New England: 25 EVs after 1980, 27 before. Also shrunk a bit.
So we can see the Northeast and Midwest were declining at the time whilst the South and West were growing.
Map; states coloured by whether they grew/shrank:
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16 battleships for this AU USA TL and WWI would get complete set of dreadnoughts before 1925 after pre-dreadnoughts are sold or scrapped. WW2 would see only a few Iowa BB and Montana BB analogues by 1944 and 2 losses