The Sixteen States of America

Thande

Donor
So now let's do the 2008 presidential election. This is probably as close to a landslide as the US has had since the 1980s, though the polarisation in individual states (and in particular geographically large states staying Republican) means an OTL winner-only map certainly doesn't look much like a landslide. But are things different in the world of the Sixteen States? Let's count down in population order...

Erie: Obama won both component states, so he carries the whole by 10.1%.

Texas: McCain carries this by 11.3% as OTL.

Atlantea: Similar to Erie, Obama wins both component states and carries the combo by 12.4%.

South California: Goes Obama by 19.6%. I think I had NorCal and SoCal switched by accident on my 2010s election results & maps, so I've edited the posts to swap the earlier figures.

Roanoke: Obama was of course the first Democrat in decades to carry Virginia, which was a shock in OTL. Here, this plus Maryland and Delaware overpowers West Virginia and Kentucky to give him the whole superstate by 6.6%.

New Germany: A remarkable win for Obama, who takes it by 4.1%. In OTL he of course won Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and came close to taking Montana, as well as the more expected wins in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.

New York: Goes Democratic by 26.9% as OTL.

LaSalle: The most Republican part of the nation once again, though that's not saying much in 2008; McCain carries it by 14.1%.

Wabash: Not only did Obama have an impressive home state effect in Illinois, but he also achieved the unexpected feat of carrying Indiana, so unsurprisingly in this scenario he wins the combo by 17.1%.

Carolina: Goes Republican, but by only 6.2% (in OTL Obama carried North Carolina).

Florida: As OTL, the rarity of a vaguely decisive election result - by Florida standards, i.e. Obama carries it by 2.8%.

Apachea: Wow. It shows on my spreadsheet as '0.0% margin' rounded. Obama got 3,657,168 votes to McCain's 3,659,429. So McCain carries his 'home state', just barely, but Apachea is really shaping itself up to be another Florida in terms of close disputed results.

Yazoo: The third most Republican state (of the five carried out of 16 by McCain) with an 11.3% victory margin.

New England: Goes Democratic by 23.1%, making it the third most Democratic state after North California and New York.

North California: Goes Democratic by 30.1%. Notably Obama carried some counties here that no Democrat has since.

Pacifica: Democratic by 16.9%; Sarah Palin can't save you now, Senator McCain. As before, also the biggest third party vote, but in 2008 that was only 2.5%.

...and it must be a great comfort to Democratic candidates that they could eat a baby live on the debate podium and still get 3 EVs out of DC.

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Count the electoral votes...

Barack Obama (Democratic): 323 EVs
John McCain (Republican): 147 EVs

Yeah, that looks like a landslide.
 
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Thande

Donor
Fairly trivial to do 2004 as well, which as a reminder is the only presidential election of the last 30 years plus in which the Republican has won the popular vote.

Erie: In OTL Kerry won Michigan but lost Ohio. In TTL, despite the Guardian's best efforts, he narrowly carries the combination by a margin of just 0.4%.

Texas: As in OTL, Bush carries his home state by a margin of 22.9%, making it his strongest state.

Atlantea: Kerry won PA and NJ, and wins the combo by a margin of 4.4%.

South California: Goes Democratic, but by just 4.3%, making it less Democratic than PA+NJ. 2004 was the last election in which the margin of OTL California as a whole was (just) less than 10%; Bush actually campaigned there in 2000.

Roanoke: Bush carries it by 4.4%, this being the last time to date that Virginia went Republican.

New Germany: Goes to Bush by 7.4%.

New York: Kerry wins it by 18.3%, making it his strongest state.

LaSalle: Won by Bush with 16.0%, his third strongest state. We're getting closer in time to when this region was actually competitive now.

Wabash: Similar to Erie, Kerry wins the combined state but just barely, by a 0.5% margin.

Carolina: Goes Republican, but only Bush's 4th best state, with a 14.0% margin.

Florida: As in OTL, no controversies this time - goes to Bush by 5%.

Apachea: We've all heard about Bush's 45% Hispanic support in this election, and blimey it's on display here. Goes Republican by 11.4%.

Yazoo: The second strongest Republican state, won by Bush by 19.8%.

New England: Kerry's 'home state', but only his third best performance, won by a 16.9% margin.

North California: More Democratic than the South, it is won by Kerry by 17.7%.

Pacifica: Goes Democratic, but again more narrowly than we see nowadays, won by Kerry by a 4.4% margin.

And DC is DC.

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Let's add up the electoral votes...

George W. Bush (Republican): 236
John F. Kerry (Democratic): 234

Zikes! Those narrow Kerry wins in the rustbelt make this surprisingly close in the electoral college - expect a lot of worthy editorials in the world press expecting faithless electors to swing it for Kerry. We came surprisingly close to a case where Republican wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, which would be a novelty.
 
I'm using this definition because...b) I'm trying for as roughly equal a division by population as possible and adding more counties to SoCal would create an even bigger imbalance and c) I only want to add the votes in 10 counties every time, which is the most time-consuming part of this process.

Understandable. You've got me completely backwards though. I'm saying Bakersfield isn't SoCal, not that you left part of SoCal out.
 

Thande

Donor
Understandable. You've got me completely backwards though. I'm saying Bakersfield isn't SoCal, not that you left part of SoCal out.
Fair enough, as I say I'm just going with the definition Wiki likes (perhaps because it has a ruler-straight parallel border).

This is probably a bit late, but for Erie, you could have gone with Toledo, a name which everybody would wholeheartedly embrace!!
That was actually my original joke name before I thought it went too far :p

Anyway,

The next three elections working backward (2000, 1996, 1992) all use the 1990 census apportionment, so now let's do that.

1990 Census Apportionment

Erie (20,142,412, 38 EVs): Erie was also the largest state in the 90s. Though it kept this title going into the 2000s, it lost 3 seats from its 1990s apportionment.

Atlantea (19,611,831, 36 EVs):
Similarly to Erie to a lesser extent, Atlantea would lose one seat going into the 2000s.

South California (18,269,095, 34 EVs):
More typically of the meteoric rise of California through rounds of apportionment in OTL, SoCal gains a whopping four seats going from the 1990s to 2000s.

New York (17,990,455, 34 EVs): Conversely, New York loses three seats as she is overtaken by other states.

LaSalle (17,310,930, 32 EVs):
LaSalle loses a single seat going from the 90s to 00s.

New Germany (17,216,214, 32 EVs): New Germany also loses one seat with the turn of the millennium

Roanoke (17,113,767, 32 EVs): As does Roanoke, perhaps partially fuelled by population decline in West Virginia.

Texas (16,986,510, 32 EVs): Texas puts in the biggest gain after SoCal going from the 90s to 00s, gaining 3 seats.

Wabash (16,974,761, 32 EVs): Wabash loses a single seat from 90s to 00s.

Carolina (14,992,525, 28 EVs): Carolina, on the other hand, would pick up a seat with the 00s.

New England (13,206,943, 25 EVs):
New England would lose a seat with the millennium.

Yazoo (13,092,019, 25 EVs):
Yazoo would gain a seat, but for the 1990s is equal in representation to New England.

Florida (12,937,926, 25 EVs): Florida's own rise is pretty meteoric, gaining 2 seats going from the 1990s to 2000s.

North California (11,490,926, 22 EVs): No change from the 90s to 00s.

Apachea (11,399,374, 22 EVs): Also no change from the 90s to 00s.

Pacifica (9,367,285, 18 EVs):
Pacifica gains a single seat going from 90s to 00s.
 

Thande

Donor
So now let's do 2000, the least controversial election in American history. (You think I'm being sarcastic - and I am - but ironically it was seen as a snoozefest with indistinguishable candidates earlier on in the contest).

Erie: OTL Gore carried Michigan and Bush carried Ohio; TTL the former outweighs the latter, barely, and Gore carries Erie by just 0.6%, the closest result APART FROM THAT ONE.

Atlantea: A more convincing win for Gore here, who takes it by 8.8%.

South California: This is the election where Bush actually campaigned in Cali, with it still being considered vaguely competitive. Gore still wins SoCal by 8.9% though.

New York: Gore's strongest state, won with a 25.0% margin.

LaSalle: Bush wins it by 10.3%; this is coming off the region being competitive under Clinton, though, meaning that LaSalle at this point was only the fifth most Republican state, and actually more Democratic than Apachea.

New Germany: Bush carries it by 7.7%.

Roanoke: Once again, the combo is rather swingy, with Bush taking it by just 1.6%

Texas: Bush carries his home state with an impressive 21.3% margin, making it his strongest state.

Wabash: Gore carries this by 3.3%.

Carolina: Goes to Bush by 10.6%. This state, of course, contains Gore's home state of Tennessee, which he lost, being the first major party candidate in a competitive election to lose his home state in...possibly ever?

New England: We're now entering the era of Yankee Republicanism almost still being a current thing, but despite his family's Connecticut ancestry Bush's image was a terrible fit for the region, and Gore wins it by 19.2% as his second strongest state. New England also saw the biggest third party vote, with 6.9% - recall the third party vote in 2000 was dominated by Nader, though there were others.

Yazoo: Bush's second strongest state, won by a margin of 13.7% - not that much compared to nowadays, however, and recall that not so long ago Clinton had won Georgia.

Florida: MOVE ALONG NOTHING TO SEE HERE

North California: Though California was still regarded as vaguely competitive, NorCal is the more Democratic part and is carried by Gore with 8.9%. This was also the third biggest third party vote, with 5.8%; Nader actually got almost the same number of votes in NorCal and SoCal, despite the latter having a substantially larger population and electorate.

Apachea: Once again Bush's appeal in this region is on show; OTL he carried every component state except New Mexico, and TTL he wins it by 10.9%.

Pacifica: This region was also relatively competitive compared to later, in particular due to the large Nader vote acting as a spoiler (it had the second best third party vote, with 6.3%). However, Gore does carry it by a 2.7% margin.

DC is also there, and gave 5% of its votes to Nader, interestingly. And about 9% to Bush. Never change, DC.

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Add the electoral votes...

Al Gore (Democratic): 242
George W. Bush (Republican): 228

So under these super-states, the popular vote winner would also have won the electoral college, and the absurdly close result in Florida wouldn't matter (I have counted it towards Bush here).
 
Nice to see that DC would still vote Democrat even if the candidate was literally Moloch consuming the firstborn of the electorate in sacred fire, live on TV.
 
I remember doing something similar to this recently, but with the 9 census regions.
The South Atlantic region was so stupid close every time, it swung Trump by 10k votes and was the (2nd?) biggest state
 
So now let's do 2000, the least controversial election in American history. (You think I'm being sarcastic - and I am - but ironically it was seen as a snoozefest with indistinguishable candidates earlier on in the contest).

South California: This is the election where Bush actually campaigned in Cali, with it still being considered vaguely competitive. Gore still wins SoCal by 8.9% though.

North California: Though California was still regarded as vaguely competitive, NorCal is the more Democratic part and is carried by Gore with 8.9%. This was also the third biggest third party vote, with 5.8%; Nader actually got almost the same number of votes in NorCal and SoCal, despite the latter having a substantially larger population and electorate.
What was the actual margin in North California?
 
This was really neat to read. The only state I would have definitely changed is Idaho, I think it should have been with Pacifica not New Germany. It's generally considered pacific northwest region and it would help the numbers (if only a little) of the least populous state in your system.
 
Are you planning on continuing this series?
Given that Thande didn't seem to mind others making maps in this universe, I thought I'd have a go at making some other presidential election maps.

1996 presidential election

Erie
: Clinton carries it by 9.5%.

Atlantea: Clinton carries it by 12.7%.

South California: Clinton carries it by 9.2%.

New York: Clinton carries it by 28.9%, making New York his strongest state this year.

LaSalle: Clinton carries it by 3.0%, no doubt helped by it being his home state. This would be the final time the Democrats ever win this state in a presidential election so far. Incidentally, it's also Bob Dole's home state. ouch.

New Germany: Clinton carries it by 5.3%.

Roanoke: Clinton wins by 5.9%.

Texas: Dole wins by 4.9%... amazingly, this is actually Bob Dole's strongest performance in any state this year!

Wabash: Clinton carries this by 9.9%.

Carolina: Dole wins by 2.6%.

New England: Clinton wins by 25.7%. This is Ross Perot's strongest state this year- Perot gets 10.9% of the vote here.

Yazoo: Dole wins here by 3.8%.

Florida: Clinton wins by 5.7%.

North California: Clinton wins by 17.7%.

Apachea: Dole wins by 1.8%.

Pacifica: Clinton wins by 10.5%,

and finally, DC goes of course to Clinton.

1996.png


Add the electoral votes, and you get:

Bill Clinton (Democratic): 363
Bob Dole (Republican): 107


So Bill Clinton gets a nice landslide here, and wasn't too far off winning every state!!
 
And here is 1992. It's fairly similar to '96, the biggest differenc being that Clinton's margins in safe blue states were less in 1992 than 1996.

1992 presidential election

Erie
: Clinton carries it by 7.9%. 4.4% (edit: fixed)

Atlantea: Clinton carries it by 6.3%.

South California: Clinton carries it by 6.8%.

New York: Clinton carries it by 15.8%, making New York his strongest state this year (just barely - 15.84% in New York vs. 15.77% in North California).

LaSalle: Clinton carries it by 4.1%, one of the few places where Clinton did better in 1992 than 1996.

New Germany: Clinton carries it by 2.6%.

Roanoke: Clinton wins by 4.7%.

Texas: Bush wins by 3.5%.

Wabash: Clinton carries this by 7.9%.

Carolina: Bush wins by 0.46%. Close one, the closest state this year.

New England: Clinton wins by 12.7%. Again Ross Perot's strongest state this year- Perot gets 23.3% of the vote here.

Yazoo: Bush wins here by 3.8%.

Florida: The only state with a different result to 1996; Bush wins by 1.9% here.

North California: Clinton wins by 15.8%.

Apachea: Bush wins by 0.81%, another very close one.

Pacifica: Clinton wins by 9.7%,

and DC is heavily favouring Clinton, of course.

1992.png


Add the electoral votes, and you get:

Bill Clinton (Democratic): 338
Bob Dole (Republican): 132


Another solid victory for Clinton.
 
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Next, the next two elections working backward (1988 and 1984) use the 1980 census apportionment, so let's do that.

We hit an interesting situation where the population of the states, originally fairly similar, are steadily drifting apart... The states, in order of population, are thus.

Erie (20,059,708, 41 EVs): Erie was also the largest state in the 80s; it lost 3 seats from its 1980s apportionment to the 1990s one.

Atlantea (19,228,718, 39 EVs): Atlantea would lose two seats going into the 1990s.

New York (17,558,072, 36 EVs): New York loses two seats going into the 90s.

Wabash (16,916,742, 35 EVs): Wabash loses three seats from 80s to 90s.

New Germany (16,809,037, 35 EVs): New Germany loses three seats.

LaSalle (16,797,990, 35 EVs): LaSalle loses three seats going from the 80s to 90s.

Roanoke (15,768,552, 32 EVs): Roanoke stays put, staying at 32 EVs.

South California (14,308,742, 30 EVs): California again has a rapid rise, with SoCal gaining four seats going from the 1980s to 1990s. This isn't even the biggest rise this time!

Texas (14,229,191, 29 EVs): Texas gains 3 seats going from the 80s to 90s.

Carolina (13,594,706, 28 EVs): Carolina also stays put, at 28 EVs.

New England (12,348,493, 26 EVs): New England loses a seat from the 80s to 90s.

Yazoo (11,877,631, 25 EVs): Yazoo stays put, at 25 EVs.

Florida (9,746,324, 20 EVs): Florida has a dramatic rise, gaining FIVE seats going from the 1980s to 90s.

North California (9,359,160, 20 EVs): North California gains two EVs with the new decade.

Apachea (9,172,603, 19 EVs): Gains three seats from the 80s to 90s.

Pacifica (8,131,803, 17 EVs): Pacifica gains a single seat going from 80s to 90s.

-----

The question now is, of course, did America have these sixteen states throughout its history, or did it admit more states over time roughly in line with population? If the latter, then I think this would be a good point to say that America had thirteen states up until the 1980s, when it formed three additional states by splitting the largest (by population) existing states in half, resulting the following thirteen states existing in 1980 (pre-split):

1980.png


Apachea (23,481,345, 48 EVs): Splits into Apachea and South California in the 1980s.
Yazoo (21,623,955, 44 EVs): Splits into Yazoo and Florida in the 1980s.
Erie (20,059,708, 41 EVs)
Atlantea (19,228,718, 39 EVs)
New York (17,558,072, 36 EVs)
Pacifica (17,490,963, 36 EVs):
Splits into Pacifica and North California in the 1980s.
Wabash (16,916,742, 35 EVs)
New Germany (16,809,037, 34 EVs)
LaSalle (16,797,990, 34 EVs)
Roanoke (15,768,552, 32 EVs)
Texas (14,229,191, 29 EVs)
Carolina (13,594,706, 28 EVs)
New England (12,348,493, 25 EVs)


This would bring back the idea of no one state having more than double the population of another, and it wouldn't need to be changed again until the 1930s.

I'm not sure what Thande's intention was with this series- maintaining the 16 states or changing it.
 
Apologies for the delay in calculating anything else on this thread, I'd been intending to do earlier elections.

But anyway, as there's been another election since this thread was last posted in... have 2020.

2020 presidential election, results by state!

Texas: As OTL, Trump wins by 5.6%. 2016–20 swing: 3.4% towards the Dems.

South California: Goes to Biden by 26.1%, which is slightly less than its 2016 victory margin (27.4%). One of only two states to shift red this year.

North California: Goes to Biden by 33.6%, which is exactly the same as the 2016 victory margin there. Again the most Democratic state.

Atlantea: Also goes to Biden (both of the OTL states that make it up did), by 7.0%- two percentage points more than in 2016.

Erie: While Biden managed to regain Michigan in OTL, the presence of Ohio keeps Erie in the Republican column, albeit only by 2.8% (a 1.6% swing to the Dems from 2016)

Roanoke: Becomes a bit safer for the Democrats this year, thanks to their improvement in performance in Virginia. Goes to Biden by 5.7%, in a 4.5% swing to the Dems.

Carolina: Goes for Trump again, by 9.7% (a 2.3% swing to the Dems from 2016).

New Germany: In the 2016 map, Thande speculated that some ambitious people might think it could swing blue, despite Trump's 9.7% victory margin in 2016. Turns out the Democrats improved somewhat but not enough to come close to winning the state- Trump takes it again, by 6.7%.

LaSalle: Once again the most strongly Republican state. Trump takes it by 20.6% (2016–20 swing is 2.5% to the Dems).

New York: As OTL, Biden wins by 23.1%. Swing to the Dems of 0.6%.

Florida: As OTL, Trump wins by 3.4%. Swing to the Republicans of 2.2%, in what is the biggest swing to the Republicans this year.

Wabash: Again Illinois overpowers Indiana. Biden wins by 5.9%; swing to the Dems of 0.9%.

Yazoo: The Democratic improvement in performance in Georgia brings Yazoo closer this year, although Alabama and Mississippi still ensure Trump's victory here. Trump wins by 9.2%, with a 4.4% swing to the Dems from 2016.

New England: Major Dem rebounding in this region. Biden wins by 24.5%, which makes a 6.4% swing to the Dems since 2016. The biggest of any state.

Pacifica: Biden wins by 17.6%. 2016-20 swing of 3.9% to the Dems.

And finally,

Apachea: The closest state in 2016, when Trump had won incredibly narrowly... the state that will decide the election, as none of the others have flipped, and... we have a flip! Biden wins by 2.6%, whereas in 2016 Trump had won by 0.8%. The most crucial swing state.

And adding up the results, we have:

Biden (Democratic): 255 electoral votes
Trump (Republican): 215 electoral votes


Just as in OTL, Biden wins. The results really show how this scenario has relatively few safe states- Trump would only have won one state (LaSalle) by over 10% here.

2020map.png
 
The question now is, of course, did America have these sixteen states throughout its history, or did it admit more states over time roughly in line with population? If the latter, then I think this would be a good point to say that America had thirteen states up until the 1980s, when it formed three additional states by splitting the largest (by population) existing states in half, resulting the following thirteen states existing in 1980 (pre-split):

Apachea (23,481,345, 48 EVs): Splits into Apachea and South California in the 1980s.
Yazoo (21,623,955, 44 EVs): Splits into Yazoo and Florida in the 1980s.
Erie (20,059,708, 41 EVs)
Atlantea (19,228,718, 39 EVs)
New York (17,558,072, 36 EVs)
Pacifica (17,490,963, 36 EVs):
Splits into Pacifica and North California in the 1980s.
Wabash (16,916,742, 35 EVs)
New Germany (16,809,037, 34 EVs)
LaSalle (16,797,990, 34 EVs)
Roanoke (15,768,552, 32 EVs)
Texas (14,229,191, 29 EVs)
Carolina (13,594,706, 28 EVs)
New England (12,348,493, 25 EVs)


This would bring back the idea of no one state having more than double the population of another, and it wouldn't need to be changed again until the 1930s.

I'm not sure what Thande's intention was with this series- maintaining the 16 states or changing it.
I'd go with that, but instead of Pacifica+NorCal and Apachea+SoCal, I'd use Pacifica+Apachea (Pacifica) and NorCal+SoCal (California) so you don't have to split California's results.
 
Apologies for the delay in calculating anything else on this thread, I'd been intending to do earlier elections.

But anyway, as there's been another election since this thread was last posted in... have 2020.

2020 presidential election, results by state!
Nice, thank you for continuing this series.
 
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