Part 96: Late Stage Cartography (1943-1948)
Tomes upon tomes of books have been written about it, and yet nobody can give a concise answer - how the hell did the collapse of Revivalist Lithuania happen so quickly? How did a nation reigning over Eastern Europe turn into a shell of its former self in what was basically one year? Not only is it hard to objectively answer how and what caused it, but the answer often depends on what your political stance is. If you are a neo-Sarmatist, perhaps you believe that it was a Russian, German and traitor conspiracy to strangle the reborn Sarmatian state in its cradle. If you are a progressive republican or maybe a Democratic Unitarian, perhaps you view that the Lithuanians always saw the Revivalist nation as illegitimate and that it was a popular rebellion against a hated regime. If you are a Unitarian... well, then probably you have much bigger problems to worry about.
Regardless of what your opinion is, the transition from Revivalism to the Second Republic was far from orderly. In fact, it was so chaotic that many both in Germany and in Lithuania itself believed that the Peace of Vilnius was a mistake - Lithuania appeared as if it will soon collapse, or undergo a Unitarian revolution, or restart its war with Russia, or all of the above. Far from all units in the Eastern Front agreed to lay down arms in accordance to the treaty, many held their ground and, once Russian troops began retaking formerly occupied Russian territory, a number of clashes began between rogue Lithuanians and the Russians, as the pseudo-conflict known as the
Continuation War. In response to both the Continuation War as well as a thirst revenge for the number of atrocities committed against Russian civilians during the war, the Krutovist government declined to give back Lithuanian prisoners of war, citing that they were taken during the time of Revivalist Lithuania and thus are not under the Treaty's jurisdiction. Of course, the Lithuanians then refused to give back Russian prisoners, and the exchange of POWs only ended up happening in 1951. Back home, the few remaining Green Berets were among the first to rise up and try to execute a counter-coup against Sidabras, but due to lack of competent leadership, it ended up thwarted. Many other members of the Revival Front reorganized to the
Party of Lithuanian Revenge (
Lietuvos keršto partija), which hoped to win the scheduled election and restore the suddenly destroyed government.
In all this chaos, Sidabras made it clear that he was going to retire after the first election, scheduled in 1943, so the burden of leading the breaking and weakened country fell on the shoulders of
Antanas Garšva, an interesting personality, indeed. Both his own memoirs and others people's descriptions of him report that he was diagnosed with neurasthenia, stemming from his difficult upbringing and later stress during the Revivalist era. Garšva was a poet, a profession heavily repressed by the totalitarian regime for not towing the party line, and once the Russo-Lithuanian War broke out, he was pushed to the anti-Revivalist democratic resistance, eventually ending up as the leader of the Sąjūdis. With the first democratic elections in the Second Republic coming up and the Avengers gaining popularity, the threat of a Revivalist restoration a civil war, and to oppose that possibility, Garšva reformed the Sąjūdis to a non-ideological democratic movement, its name symbolizing both the need for a new beginning and referencing the famous Shroud of Turin - the
White Shroud (
Balta drobulė).
The
Lithuanian general election of 1943 was held on April 7th, 1943, and with a lack of third-party opposition, as most of the anti-Revivalist forces coalesced under Garšva, the White Shroud gathered up to 70% of the vote and won the election with a stunning majority. The former resistance fighter and charismatic personality Garšva was elected as the first Democrat of the second Republic of Lithuania. A following election to the Prezidiumas saw similar successful results for his party.
Antanas Garšva, Democrat of Lithuania
Garšva had to face a number of immediate problems during his term - political instability, relations with Russia and rebuilding the Lithuanian state and economy, just to name a few. The first three months of the term were, perhaps, the most busy and effective period in any period of Lithuanian democracy - using his party's supermajority in the reestablished Prezidiumas as well as a massive amount of political capital due to the sorry excuse of "stability" in the state, Garšva signed at least 30 important acts and new laws into action, including banning the Revival Front, recognizing the Treaty of Vilnius and demanding all Lithuanian soldiers in Russia to return, buying the loyalty of the militarists with military funding and reforms in order to be able to use their strength for stabilization, and finally, economic and education reforms. Education would soon become one of the central parts of Garšva's term - the Democrat was well aware that without any natural resources, the strength of Lithuania could only lie in its people and their personal competence. 1946's
National Education Act established mandatory free primary and secondary education and expanded the nation's education system, opening up to 500 new schools across the nation, and subsequent amendments extended this right to higher education.
While the Second Republic started in as low of a start as the first, its path eventually became far smoother. A combination of German investment, comparatively high national unity and a stronger executive in the form of Garšva meant that by the time 1945 rolled in, gross domestic product growth finally began reaching positive levels, although with some uncomfortably high government debt levels. Internal resistance attempts (though not the Sarmatist bitterness) were eventually quelled, relations with Russia and the refounded Krajina normalized, and optimism returned. The problem of Lithuania's future in international politics also found a solution. After recommendations from business lobbies and his foreign ministry, Garšva began aligning the Lithuanian nation to the Baltic-Adriatic Coalition, signing a number of free trade agreements with both Germania and its auxiliaries. This was not only a step in the opposite direction from the decades of Lithuanian revanchism against their western neighbours (and was thus heavily criticized by the Avengers, among others), but also placed Lithuania at the precipice of something far greater than mere economic growth...
Of course, it's not like everything was sunshine and rainbows in the Second Republic. Anti-Republican resistance continued in small scale into the late 1940s, while only careful rationing prevented a complete collapse of the Lithuanian food system. Many both domestically and in foreign countries were confused by the choice to rehabilitate the military, too - even in historical revisionism, declaring that the numerous atrocities committed by the Lithuanians in Russia, from burning of villages to mass executions of intellectuals, were only committed by the Green Berets. The "
Clean Armija" myth, 'Armija' in this case standing for the Lithuanian Army of the 1940s, would later become a notorious example of public opinion not matching with historical fact.
Important changes took place across all of Europe as well, and here they came with a realization from the German government - defeating the Unitarians was the easy part of the job.
The collapse of Visegrad and the War of the Danube, combined with constant German promises of national self-determination, incited a surge of nationalism across Central Europe and the Balkans. Nationalist politicians from various nations were already drawing up their proposals for borders for the country they represent and sending them to Vienna, and usually, these were maximum possible goals, with plenty of extremism in the mix - Greeks wanted to turn the Aegean into "their sea", regain Constantinople and annex Western Anatolia; Bulgarians wanted lands from Macedonia to the Dobrudja; Romanians wanted a "greater Romania" from Banat to the Dniester; Hungarians hoped to retain all of their pre-war territory and at the same time obtain access to the sea; and we're not even talking about Silesia yet. And what about the occupied western Anatolia? The Germans watched the unfolding Second Turkish Civil War and the ascendant Yenilemist state as a potential threat both to their influence in the Middle East and to the new order in Europe, should this rising nationalism manifest in imperial ambitions. It should be obvious that this was a headache for everyone involved, and the Germans experimented with various ideas of differing levels of craziness. Proposals were made for duct-tape solutions in the form of countries such as
Yuzhno-Slavia (Slavonia + Albania + Bulgaria),
Aegean Federation (Greece + German-occupied Turkey),
Zapado-Slavia (Poland + Bohemia) or
Carpathia (Hungary + Romani State + Romania), but none took off the planning stage. As time went on, more and more nationalities came up desiring their own states, too, cropping up like mushrooms after a warm rain - Slovenians, Bosniaks, Macedonians, Montenegrins, Aromanians, Rusyns, Moravians, Kashubians, so on and so forth... The only thing they could agree on was that Visegrad should stay dead.
Otto Krohn, the Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Germania, responsible for many of the early negotiations over self-determination with nationalists in Visegrad, proposed a compromise solution - taking "self-determination" to its natural conclusion and organizing open referendums in conflict zones over which country should hold which area - and this soon became Germania's primary solution for the can of worms that was occupied Central Europe. On May of 1944, in what was soon dubbed as the
Schönbrunn Declaration, the German government declared the foundation or recreation of 8 countries -
Bohemia,
Hungary,
Rumania,
Bulgaria,
Serbia,
Croatia,
Albania and the supposedly temporary
Democratic State of Turkey (West Turkey) - and a grand total of 35 territorial referendums across the entire occupation zone. The most notable highlights were up to three referendums in Silesia, each for a separate region of the state (choices being joining Bohemia, Poland or Germania), one in Thrace (Bulgaria, Greece or West Turkey), five (!) in various regions of Bosnia (Croatia, Serbia or independence to Bosnia), one in Slovakia (Bohemia, Hungary or independence), one in Transylvania (Hungary, Romania or independence) and many, many others, dealing with matters as small as counties. The majority of them took place throughout 1945.
Was it the best possible choice? Did it end conflict between Balkan and Central European states? Not really... but, eh... a referendum wave was perhaps the best Germania could come up with. Well, this and one more thing. For a long time, Augustina Sternberg fostered hopes of seeing a Europe united under one supranational organization of peace in her lifetime, and the period after the Schönbrunn Declaration was the best chance for finally forming one. In the tail end of her second term, the winter of 1944, Sternberg and representatives from Central Europe and the Balkans met in Frankfurt for negotiations to iron out an alliance of nations as a cemented successor to the unofficial "second Baltic-Adriatic Coalition" which defeated the Unitarians. Discussions took place not on how feasible this ambitious project was, but also on what it would entail - common defense is an obvious one, but what about eliminating trade barriers and political integration? Many saw it as a German plan to solidify their sphere of influence in the east, and they had all the right to believe that - after all, if was obvious who would hold the higher say in such an organization. However, in the end, pragmatism and German pressure prevailed. June 1944 saw the foundation of the
European Defense Commission, an organization for common defense and diplomatic cooperation between Germania, former Visegrad states, the Balkans, West Turkey and Krajina. While originally merely a fancy name for Germania and it's sphere of influence, it soon began to expand outward, starting with Lithuania's application in 1948 (although it also entailed that Krajina left in protest the following year.). Later years would see the Defense Commission continuously reformed to include economic and political cooperation.
While later on, this move would be seen as a tactical German diplomatic victory, it was viewed with disappointment in Germania itself. The German people were already grown tired of both war and diplomatic entanglements and sought domestic reforms, fueled by successful Democratic Unitarian campaigning against the Centralist "warmongery". Polls showed that the foundation of the Defense Commission was viewed negatively across almost all parts of the population, both rich and poor, and while the surge of patriotism after defeating Unitarian Turkey helped Sternberg's Centralists a little, the
German legislative election of 1945 showed them the back door. A loose blue-wing coalition headed by the
Federal Democratic Party and its leader
Franz Wagner replaced Sternberg's eight year long government - but the 65 year old former Prime Minister left politics with her head raised. All that she hoped to accomplish was accomplished, and in the later years, Germans would learn to recognize just how transformative her two terms were.
The blue-wing German government declared a policy of non-interventionism, planning to leave any potential conflicts in Europe to their own devices (or at worst use economic pressure to solve them), but did not dismantle the Defense Commission - in fact, it was Wagner who later controversially accepted Lithuania into the alliance, although at the price of Krajina. Did non-interventionism pay off, though?.. Well,
Sweden's National Unitarian government, after some trade pressure from the Germans, did agree to reform back into a democratic, albeit somewhat unstable government in 1947, but that was perhaps the only major victory scored by the Wagner government. The passive outlook failed to prevent a disaster which later affected not just Germania or all of Europe, but also the rest of the world.
Augustina Sternberg declares the independence of Serbia in Belgrade, May 1944
The Second Turkish Civil War continued to rage on from 1942 to 1945. While the Yenilemist Turks, later joined by a somewhat reluctant Armenia, dealt with Kurdistan, they and their leader Sefa Armagan received news about the worst possible outcome of Germania's cake-slicing of Europe - fearing that the military dictatorship will be just as bad as the former Unitarian state, Augustina Sternberg established a temporary democratic government of West Turkey as a bargaining chip for the future. Many could already foresee the outcome - "we'll give you Kostantinyye if you agree to this and this and this". Immediately after the Schonbrunn Declaration, public protests broke out in Gaziantep, Ankara, Adana and other cities within Turkey, demanding action against this artificial separation of the Turkish state - however, Armagan was no idiot and opted to bide his time, perhaps hoping that the Turks in the west felt the same.
A far different situation unfolded in the south, where the United Republic of Arabia was busy having a fight which seemed to, once again, determine its survival. Well-equipped and supplied by perhaps the biggest land military power on the planet, the restorationist Unitarian government faced off against rallied militias, tribes and insurgents under the banner of Arabia - and at the beginning, victories obviously followed the former. Indian troops scored victories against the Arabs in Karbala, Kuwait and across the Syrian desert, while at the same time striking to the back of the Republic of Kurdistan and seizing the city of Mosul within weeks - an operation which, combined with a Yenilemist and Armenian offensive from the north, was practically the last nail in the coffin of the Kurdish state, after one violent and chaotic year of existence. Those with enough awareness of what was about to happen, and could afford it, ditched their wagons - thousands fled east and west, to Iran and Arabia. Others, especially the Kurdish tribesmen, went low and began a long and grueling insurgency against the occupation. But back to Arabia.
By the time 1944 arrived, both Damascus and Jerusalem were under threat of Unitarian invasion. The first artillery shells were falling on the shores of the Dead Sea, and the fall of
Amman in January of the same year paved the way for Indian invaders to Palestine. However, success was starting to turn away from them. After long battles across the previous year, most of the sparse transport infrastructure in the Syrian Desert had been destroyed, and this meant that supply lines were thinning. Organizational and morale problems were also starting to show up - the Indian Army was fighting in a hostile environment with zero local support for their army, which not only eroded morale and complicated food requisitioning, but also meant that large-scale insurgencies were forming up behind the front lines. Meanwhile, as time went on, more and more arms and support was getting to the hands of the Arabs - Egypt supported the Republic since day one, while France and Germania, who soon realized what Nijasure has been planning with this endeavor, initiated their own supplies and arms deals. In the
Battle of Nazareth, only a few dozen kilometers away from Jerusalem, the Indians suffered their first major defeat and their plan to envelop the holy city was thwarted. A counteroffensive soon began, which, while very costly to the Arabian forces, was slowly melting away the Indian and the few Unitarian Turkish soldiers, whose units found it hard to be reinforced and resupplied under the poor conditions. The front line was pushed back into Mesopotamia, after months of desert warfare, until suddenly, the Netaji's government demanded all Indian troops to return home. What was that all about?
The venture in the Second Turkish Civil War turned out to be a lot more costly to the Indians than originally anticipated - after all, a geopolitical project such as a Middle Eastern puppet state requires either lots of local support (of which there was none) or spending lots and lots of resources, and, after weighing all pros and cons, Indian geopolitical experts simply determined that carving out a puppet in the Levant would just be too much trouble than it's worth. Not to mention that, as one could tell by now, Sanjay Nijasure's goals in the Middle East were being fulfilled without the need of a direct intervention - the Indians couldn't not know about the growing conflict between Germania and Yenilemist Turkey over Western Anatolia, and an anti-Western Turkish state was just perfect for a buffer between the German sphere and Indian interests. January 9, 1945 would become the Day of Victory for the United Republic of Arabia, as it is the day when Arabian forces reached and seized the last Unitarian bastion, Basra, and the Second Turkish Civil War came to a close, birthing two states out of it - a nationalist Turkey and a, hopefully, democratic Arabia.
There was only one more front to resolve in the world -
East Africa. The East Africa war of unification and liberation happened parallel to the War of the Danube and the Turkish Civil War, and thus, outside of France and sometimes, gained zero press. That's not to say that there wasn't action going on here - far from it. To deal with the ascendant monarchical Unitarian state, France threw an expeditionary force known as the
Africa Corps, decked out with landships and heavy artillery, but it proved to be not so effective in the mountainous, low-scale warfare across East Africa. As such, the war continued for many years with both sides tugging along for the long haul - however, by 1944, the tide had turned in favor of the French. Simply enough, the end of the war in Europe, and India's participation in the Second Turkish Civil War, meant that French troops received more and more reinforcements while foreign support for the Ethiopians suffered. However, despite this materiel superiority, the Africa Corps was unable to defeat their African opposition - intrinsic difficulties like the terrain and lack of local support remained. In addition, knowing that Indian intervention in the Middle East was over, France, for obvious reasons, feared that the Unitarians now have free hands for a direct attack on East Africa (after all, India had not signed a peace with Germania and France, even if hostilities were over). As such, negotiations with the Ethiopians were over, and the
Peace of Jeanville in December of 1944 settled the Franco-Ethiopian War. East Africa secured its independence - however, without Somalia and without Nouvelle-Lyon.
Celebrations in Damascus after the news of the capture of Basra, January 1945
After the end of the War of the Danube, a similar post-war recession as after the Great European War followed, and, much like last time, it was spurred by overproduction and by the inability of worldwide industries to rapidly shift to peacetime production. However, experience of the late 1910s meant that the transition in most countries was much smoother, and some nations, such as the Vespucias, didn't even have to make any radical reforms to overcome the crisis. The fact that this was a war of smaller overall scale than the Great European War helped as well. However, this didn't mean that the economic downturn didn't claim some "special" victims.
Britannia entered the late 1930s as a fading, weakening state. While the Catholic absolute monarchy had made some noticeable strides in technology and economic development during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, this boost had practically disappeared by then, as the nation failed to maintain competent GDP growth and thus was falling behind its competitors in Europe and the rest of the world. Its colonies in the New World and Oceania were also starting to grow unruly, irritated by high tariffs and lack of acknowledgement of the different identity that had arisen in these distant parts of the Empire. The War of the Danube and the massive demand for military materiel it created was a straw Britannia immediately grabbed on - arms exports to all of the participants in the conflict was a ludicrous deal which helped fill up the kingdom's coffers in this worsening condition. Eventually, Britannia became one of the few neutral countries in the world which underwent full economic mobilization - but as reliance on arms trade goes, once the demand fades away, problems ensue, and once the War of the Danube and parallel military conflicts ended and a postwar recession began, Britannia found itself in an even worse situation than before. Many of the sales, especially to Turkey, were made on credit, which now could never be returned. Economic growth immediately dipped to the negatives and the demobilization of the economy would take too long for that to be fixed.
While all of that was terrible, it was, for the most part, only a lighter for the entire gasoline-doused chain of problems which plagued the British nation since the beginning. The Home Islands had been severely overpopulated for centuries, and while in the past, this problem found solutions in colonization and mass emigration to the Vespucias, even those choices were starting to run out of steam - Vespucian nations were starting to put immigration controls after severe Protectionist politician pressure, and the British colonies were starting to turn unwelcoming to fresh settlers. The abolition of guided democracy in Britannia in the early 1930s irritated many, especially since as time went on and as Britannia opened up to the world more and more, the idea of a religion influenced absolute monarchy in the 20th century was turning absurd. Unitarian ideas arrived from the Commonwealth (now basically India & Friends), while German and French influence was bringing forth the possibility of a democratic, republican Britain. While King James III still retained his absolute grip on power, vultures were gathering around his throne.
And unfortunately for all that lived in the British Isles, the isolationist outlook in continental Europe meant that there will be no Germania or France bringing in a sensible government. The only option now was grassroots revolution.
Map of the world in 1948