The Silver Knight, a Lithuania Timeline
- Thread starter Augenis
- Start date
It's a subreddit where people find instances of terrible historical research and do write-ups on it.
Yeah I can see how Augen won't take kindly to the latter idea I am offering. Although for being a Proud Lithuanian, I am surprised and happy that he hasn't devolved into Wank territory in telling the story of Lithuania's growth.
Actually, it's not what you think
Basically, I was ripping apart the work of a Lithuanian pseudo-historian, one who says that Lithuania has existed for 3000 years and conquered Rome. In that post, I commented that his work feels like a very elaborate AH timeline rather than an actual history work, and linked this TL for comparison.
I'm a fan of this one, myself. Perfectly shows how easy it is to wank Lithuanian adaptability.I've seen more excessive Lithuania-Wanks: Delenda Est, for one.
Speaking of... I wonder what will happen to Siberia if Lietuva doesn't take it over?
I can't think of any reason for the native tribes to develop more than they did in OTL, beyond random unseen ASB-ish butterflies, so it's likely someone else would take them over...
Super!China maybe? A non isolationist Japan might be able to get something... Or maybe Korea gets lucky?
Some sort of 'horde' (Mongols, Kitchens, Turks, etc) might be able to take parts of it. Or maybe this TL will see Super!Iran?
Going into ATL-specific stuff, maybe Volga Russia will be able to take it? They probably wouldn't be able to hold it if they did, but still.
I can't think of any reason for the native tribes to develop more than they did in OTL, beyond random unseen ASB-ish butterflies, so it's likely someone else would take them over...
Super!China maybe? A non isolationist Japan might be able to get something... Or maybe Korea gets lucky?
Some sort of 'horde' (Mongols, Kitchens, Turks, etc) might be able to take parts of it. Or maybe this TL will see Super!Iran?
Going into ATL-specific stuff, maybe Volga Russia will be able to take it? They probably wouldn't be able to hold it if they did, but still.
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I have an idea on what's going to happen with Siberia, but it's a very abstract one that I haven't developed yet, so it may or may not change depending on future developments.
I'm guilty, I didn't think much of Siberia throughout this TL
Shame on you. How dare you not plan for Siberia?! I demand updated on the frozen, mostly uninhabited wasteland at all times from now on!
Oh, and whatever happened to Mejico? I know that it's really unimportant compared to Siberia, but when you first mentioned it a dozen-or-so updates back it caught my interest.
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It's still thriving. The Altamirano dynasty has gone completely native, and Mejico has basically become a Nahua state. In the 16th century, numerous epidemic outbreaks by European diseases decimated the population, but the survivors have more of less built up resistance by now. Technology is lacking behind Europe, as Spain does not recognize Mejico and embargoes it constantly.
depends on how many Volga-Russians there are...they certainly can take what Russia took OTL before the 1700s, the boreal forest, taiga, tundra people are too few and backwards to mount an effective defense (remember, the Russians OTL took over Siberia with a very small number of people) but they aren't likely to expand much into Central Asia, and they certainly aren't going to be carving some chunks off of China - indeed, they might end up in the east as Chinese tributaries of sorts, sending say a nominal gift of furs with much kowtowing each year so the Manchu (?) don't feel the need to intervene north of Mongolia.
If the Chinese and Japanese aren't more outward-looking than OTL, they're unlikely to threaten Russians in Siberia for a few centuries yet, simply through disinterest in the place. The Lithuanians always could move in, but perhaps they find it convenient to have Volga Russia and Siberia as places they can expel Russians that make trouble, as long as they don't get populous and developed enough to be a serious threat. Another great Steppe empire could of course destroy them, but it's iffy if such a thing will arise, and the steppe people prefer lands south of Siberia anyway. (In very few places did the actual pre-Russian Kazakh hordes extend north of the current Russian-Kazakh border). A post-Ottoman mega-Persia could do it, but unless the Ottomans manage to win Iran back for the Sunni faith, Shia Persia will face he same vicious hostility from Sunni central Asians they did OTL. Assuming a Qing empire as OTL, Korea doesn't have a border with Siberia. Maybe this will be one of those timelines with a British Siberia (or at least Siberian Far East...
)Ah, cool. Thanks.
depends on how many Volga-Russians there are...they certainly can take what Russia took OTL before the 1700s, the boreal forest, taiga, tundra people are too few and backwards to mount an effective defense (remember, the Russians OTL took over Siberia with a very small number of people) but they aren't likely to expand much into Central Asia, and they certainly aren't going to be carving some chunks off of China - indeed, they might end up in the east as Chinese tributaries of sorts, sending say a nominal gift of furs with much kowtowing each year so the Manchu (?) don't feel the need to intervene north of Mongolia.
If the Chinese and Japanese aren't more outward-looking than OTL, they're unlikely to threaten Russians in Siberia for a few centuries yet, simply through disinterest in the place. The Lithuanians always could move in, but perhaps they find it convenient to have Volga Russia and Siberia as places they can expel Russians that make trouble, as long as they don't get populous and developed enough to be a serious threat. Another great Steppe empire could of course destroy them, but it's iffy if such a thing will arise, and the steppe people prefer lands south of Siberia anyway. (In very few places did the actual pre-Russian Kazakh hordes extend north of the current Russian-Kazakh border). A post-Ottoman mega-Persia could do it, but unless the Ottomans manage to win Iran back for the Sunni faith, Shia Persia will face he same vicious hostility from Sunni central Asians they did OTL. Assuming a Qing empire as OTL, Korea doesn't have a border with Siberia. Maybe this will be one of those timelines with a British Siberia (or at least Siberian Far East...
Possibly, but I just... don't quite feel like that's going to happen. Maybe, though...
Chapter 41: The Time of Troubles
Part 41: The Time of Troubles (1688-1690)
One of the best explanations, however, came from the Polish historian Karol Maciewski in 1987, in a book titled "Guns, Tactics and Steel", where he raises the proposal that Visegrad's survival was mandated by the country's approach to warfare, starting with 16th century reforms that managed to save the country in the long term. One thing that both contemporary and past historians note about Visegrad is it's education. In 1680, the union hosted 14 universities (in comparison, Lithuania only had four - in Vilnius, Kiev, Riga and Karaliaučius), not counting numerous colleges as well as a primary school network. Visegrad's literacy rates were among the highest in Europe - and it especially specialized in military literacy. Since the 16th century, all military officers in the army were required by law to be literate and have a degree in military education, and in the middle of the 17th century, the literacy requirement was extended to normal soldiers as well - a phenomenon way ahead of it's time. Visegrad had the highest quantity of published military literature in the continent, it supplied all of Europe with manuals of arms, and all of this resulted in an obvious outcome, as Maciewski states - the army of Visegrad was much more adaptable, literate, disciplined and accepting of innovation than any of it's peers, a giant advantage on the battlefield that allowed Visegrad to survive for so long.
Of course, it's not like the country was full of heavy armored space marines or something - it was not a perfect and flawless force. What it especially lacked was numbers, which is where their opponent in the Galician War, Lithuania, shined.
The Galician War began with a major Lithuanian thrust into Mazovia, in northern Poland, where the imperial army overwhelmed local garrisons before reinforcements could arrive, reaching the Vistula by September. The Visegrad force was focused on Galicia itself - a Hungarian army of 25 000 men marched across the Carpathians and joined up with the rebels in East Galicia, capturing Przemysl in October of 1687 and marching east towards Lemberg. They engaged a vanguard Lithuanian unit of 14 000 soldiers near Mostyska, easily defeating them and forcing the survivors to flee. In the Battle of Mostyska, the Visegradians showcased a new military development of theirs, the perfected art of volley fire - line infantry. Standing in a thin straight line with only a few lines of men making it up, shooting in volleys, the soldiers were able to maximize the effectiveness of the musket, even if this tactic came with a cost in mobility. The Lithuanians, who were mostly light skirmishers and scouts, could not withstand this unseen type of offensive.
In light of this defeat, Grand Hetman Aleksandras Chodkevičius was briefly recalled from Vilnius to the Galician Front, commanding the Lithuanian forces in Lemberg in preparation for a Visegradian assault. The intelligence that the survivors of Mostyska reported was worrying, but Chodkevičius was confident in his army's abilities. The 37 000 men large Lithuanian force, mainly composed of recruits from Ruthenia, left the fortress in the beginning of December, when the first snow had already fallen, and faced the Hungarian forces in the Battle of Horodok. The winter was turning out to be an extremely cold one, and the ground was already covered in two feet of snow, heavily limiting the mobility and visibility of both armies. Lithuanian skirmish attempts were ineffective and were repulsed by the Visegradian line infantry, but what the Hungarian commander did not expect was the sudden Lithuanian cavalry charge into the battlefield - perhaps because trying to attack with horses during freezing weather is insane. The first Visegradian line collapsed under the sudden strike, but there were two more left, and they suddenly moved back and formed a square. An infantry square. Chodkevičius's cavalry did not try to break them, fearing that the losses would be too monumental, and eventually the weakened Visegradians retreated anyway. The Lithuanians were left in control of the battlefield, but at a great cost in manpower.
A modern recreation of a Visegradian infantry square. The Visegradian forces were often called "redcoats" due to their red clothing.
The winter of 1688 was the epitome of the Little Ice Age, a period in climate history marked by a relative drop in temperatures across the world, especially in Europe, and this year, one of the coldest winters in Lithuanian history set in. Large fields of crops were destroyed by snowstorms, and the situation was critical in the northern parts of the country. Aleksandras Chodkevičius returned to Vilnius on his own, and there, he secretly persuaded the weak Emperor to wait before helping the poor in distressed regions, claiming that the war must be placed higher than relieving the peasants. Chodkevičius knew that this decision will be very unpopular and that the blame will be placed on Žygimantas II, not him, a major boon to his plans, even if this meant risking the lives of thousands and people. And indeed, famines rapidly spread across the countryside, the Emperor's inaction was irritating the mobility and the peasants, the monarch's standing within the country was weakening.
Grand Hetman Aleksandras Chodkevičius
The war in Galicia was also in Lithuania's losing side - at Stryj, the Visegradian army began a renewed offensive. Lithuanian positions were constantly harassed by Galician partisans, lacking in adequate supplies and in a large salient, so they eventually retreated. Lemberg was captured by the Hungarian forces in August of 1688, and this marked the Visegradian reconquest of the region. Charles VI was growing ambitious, however - taking only Galicia will not be enough. Push forward, soldiers of the Triple Crown!
But wait! Do you remember the Battle of Allenstein? Where the Karaite Guard defeated the Visegradians, even though it is required to constantly stay by the Emperor's side unless he wishes differently? It was Aleksandras Chodkevičius, working through bribed courtiers, who encouraged the Emperor to send the Karaite Guard to the front, actually - their undying loyalty to the Emperor would have proven to be troubling had they stayed in Vilnius. Of course, he didn't voice these concerns publicly. A conspiracy was beginning to form in the court, targeted against Žygimantas II. The military was tired of Žygimantas's weak rule and was ready to take the matters into their own hands. The people were angered by the inaction during the winter of 1688, and a large portion of the nobility feared that Žygimantas II will turn out to be a Siemowit III analogue for Lithuania - a braindead ruler who will run it to the ground. The "Group for Russian Liberation" was arming and preparing to retake the streets. Visegrad was less than a hundred miles away from the Nemunas River.
This was fertile ground for the 1688 October Coup. The military units loyal to the so-called "Council of the Lords", headed by Chodkevičius, stormed the Royal Palace and arrested Žygimantas II, only releasing him five days later, when he accepted all of the conspirators' demands. The executive powers of the country were transferred to the ten people council, headed by the Grand Hetman and composed of the most powerful position holders in the country - Field Hetman (second in command) Martynas Pacas, Patriarch Jevgeniy, Chancellor Jogaila Sapiega and other important figures. However, the rest of the Council of the Lords only had an advisory role, and in reality, almost all of the power was concentrated in the Grand Hetman, who ruled with the power of the military under his command.
However, there is one important distinction - Žygimantas II did not go anywhere. The Emperor was still the Emperor, he could have nice clothes, parties, be protected by the Karaites and call himself Emperor if he wants. But don't get confused, it was now the Grand Hetman, not the brightly colored man in the Palace, who was the real leader. Lithuania had become a military dictatorship, with even a fancy term to refer to it - the Hetmanate.
Aleksandras Chodkevičius now held all the strings of the country, and it was up to him to save it.
Looks like someone noticed that reference in the end! And thank you for the support!That last remark about the Emperor though... inb4 "History of Lithuania"
Also, i've been a silent reader before posting this and so far, your timeline is fantastic. Keep up the good work!
These developments seem very similar to what happened in the Maratha Empire of OTL with the rise of the Peshwas(Marathi for Prime Minister) in the 18th century. Would be interesting if the Hetman takes up a similar role from this point onward.