The Sick Man Dies - Mahmud II overthrown

[Grey Wolf]

I had a post already for this one but had to struggle to get my slippers on and my equilibrium is all shook up... Still, here goes for the outline

Mahmud II came to power as Ottoman sultan after the overthrow of Mustafa IV. He was the last remaining Osmanli prince at the time, and was beset with troubles from the Conservatives, including the Jannissaries, who were

"threatening on more than one occasion to replace Mahmud II with Selim Giray, the Khan of the Crimea. "

Now, there IS no Khan of the Crimea at this time - the Russian Empire took the place over in 1783, and the Ottomans fought a couple more wars and finally gave up in 1792. The last people listed as 'nominal khans' are the brothers Shabaz and Bakht, the latter dying in 1801. However, Giray princes continued to live in Istanbul and this Selim is probably the son of one of the two aforementioned nominal khans.

By a compact it had been agreed in the eighteenth century that if the Osmanli dynasty died out the Giray dynasty would succeed. But that was back when there was a Khanate of the Crimea and the Girays were rulers rather than exiles.

------------------

So, the ATL goes something like this - Mahmud II is overthrown and murdered. Civil strife in Istanbul occurs between Mehmet Ali's supporters and those of Selim Giray who gains more backing and prevails.

But the change of dynasty and strife at the centre of power leads to a collapse in Ottoman authority. Russia is ever-ready to take advantage of Ottoman weakness, Egypt is straining at the bit and may well break off completely and take Syria and Hejaz with it, whilst independent-minded pashas in the Balkans set up their own political entities, e.g. in Janina. Montenegro and Serbia are additional areas of breakaway

How does it play out with Russia ? I am guessing that the date this occurs is important here. The articles I have read do not state specifically what dates the threats and likelihood occur. But lets set it after 1815 ...

What do the other powers do ? Austria, Britain and France ?

Grey Wolf

 

[MerryPrankster]

I'm inclined to think the revolt-ridden Balkans will be lost, but some sort of Turkish polity will survive in the "core areas" (Anatolia), barring something REALLY drastic (all the European powers get together to split the entire Empire up or something).

I wonder what John thinks about this? I posted a "Giray Khans of Crimea Inherit Ottoman Throne" on the old board around the time John first came and he had something to say about that.

 

[Grey Wolf]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discus/messages/4/2514.html
This one ?

The comment however refers to a natural succession, rather than the sort of coup envisaged by the Conservatives against Mahmoud II. Spoke briefly to John on this earlier (I think he's not v well) and he was of the brief opinion that the Ottoman Empire might not survive. Quite what that means and how is what I need discussion on

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[MerryPrankster]

Yep, that's the thread. Though having the House of Osman "fail" implies a lack of successors, if they're all murdered by some ambitious pasha, that works too.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Its a pity no one is trying to help with this - I could definitely do with some details of WHEN these threats against Mahmoud II were made, also on the birth dates of his sons (he had 15, the oldest surviving in 1839 being Abdulmejid, but was he the oldest born?).

It looks like Egypt is going to emerge as a massive power in this ATL - it did in OTL, but here it is more or less undisturbed and will extend its rule over most of Arabia as well as the Sudan.

There will probably still be a Greek revolt of some sort, its origins were rather patchy but if there is chaos and collapse in Instanbul, then the pashas in the Balkans (especially in Janina) and Serbia and Montenegro are going to push for independence, and the Greeks would be left with no overlords apart from local ones. Of course, its POSSIBLE that Muhammed Ali would look to Greece as an extension of his power - it depends on the date and the position he finds himself in

I have read that the Ottoman Empire only 'reconquered' Baghdad from the Mamelukes in 1832 - thus, whatever their OTL relationship to the Porte, the rulers of Baghdad will probably cut all links in this scenario

That makes the reaction of the Great Powers key - I have read that the Russians generally preferred a weakened Ottoman Empire that they could dominate in this period, rather than a complete dismemberment. But what is going to be left ? Is it worth trying to dominate a weak and diminished empire, or would they push on from the Principalities, through Bulgaria and aim for Constantinople and the Straits completely ? And if they did, would they succeed ?

What would Britain, France and Austria think of all this ???

Grey Wolf

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Its a pity no one is trying to help with this - I could definitely do with some details of WHEN these threats against Mahmoud II were made, also on the birth dates of his sons (he had 15, the oldest surviving in 1839 being Abdulmejid, but was he the oldest born?).

It looks like Egypt is going to emerge as a massive power in this ATL - it did in OTL, but here it is more or less undisturbed and will extend its rule over most of Arabia as well as the Sudan.

There will probably still be a Greek revolt of some sort, its origins were rather patchy but if there is chaos and collapse in Instanbul, then the pashas in the Balkans (especially in Janina) and Serbia and Montenegro are going to push for independence, and the Greeks would be left with no overlords apart from local ones. Of course, its POSSIBLE that Muhammed Ali would look to Greece as an extension of his power - it depends on the date and the position he finds himself in

I have read that the Ottoman Empire only 'reconquered' Baghdad from the Mamelukes in 1832 - thus, whatever their OTL relationship to the Porte, the rulers of Baghdad will probably cut all links in this scenario

That makes the reaction of the Great Powers key - I have read that the Russians generally preferred a weakened Ottoman Empire that they could dominate in this period, rather than a complete dismemberment. But what is going to be left ? Is it worth trying to dominate a weak and diminished empire, or would they push on from the Principalities, through Bulgaria and aim for Constantinople and the Straits completely ? And if they did, would they succeed ?

What would Britain, France and Austria think of all this ???

Grey Wolf

Looking at the dynastic tree, one has to be suspicious that of 22 sons, only 2 made it past infancy. This seems to be a terrible death rate, and suggests somne foul play amonhst the harem women. So, Abdul Mejid is the first son available to assume the throne, and historically he was 16 when he did!

It is really very difficult to project what will happen, as it depends on the Powers. I suspect that a Giray would be enthroned, but before too long Mehmed Ali will make a grab, and without Mahmud's reforms, there is nothing to stop him. He may be able to seize Istanbul and the throne before anyone can react, and if this occurs, then the Ottoman Empire may do as well as historically. If a strong central authority does not develop, or the powers stop Mehmed Ali, then I would see an Egyptian Empire in control of Syria and Arabia. The other regions of the empire would probably gradually slip away, but as this occurred the impetus for reform would grow stronger and stronger.

In any case, neither a Giray nor Mehmed Ali will command the same dynsatic prestige as the Osmanli.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Yep, that's the thread. Though having the House of Osman "fail" implies a lack of successors, if they're all murdered by some ambitious pasha, that works too.

Matt:

Looking at your post from long ago, I would comment that the fratricide rule fell into disuse fairly early, and succession went to the eldest male of the dynasty until the end of the empire. Even when fratricide was practiced, most of the princes already had children of their own, so they were not the only surviving males.

 

[Grey Wolf]

So, what seems most likely is an Ottoman Empire that initially sees the Osmanli replaced by a Giray but in short order by Muhammed Ali out of Egypt (he has so many spellings of his name, sometimes I think he is fighting himself !) ?

It doesn't seem likely that a Giray would appeal to the Russians for aid

Also, if the problems in the Balkans are let run their course then Janina etc will be independent and the Greek revolt in place. Russia is going to be in the Principalities as well as the Caucasus. The question is where else ?

The date is important here - do we have a candidate date ? Or at least a period...!

Grey Wolf

 

[MerryPrankster]

"Even when fratricide was practiced, most of the princes already had children of their own, so they were not the only surviving males."

I thought the princes' kids got whacked too...I recall an incident where the pregnant concubines of an Ottoman prince were killed as well as the Prince himself. Was that an exception?

 

[MerryPrankster]

Grey,

Your idea is interesting, but my knowledge of this period is sparse. I know from my "History and Culture of the Balkans" class that in this period, nationalism was becoming big among the subject-peoples of the Balkans, and Russia is always in the background ready to help the "brother Slavs" if the other Powers don't stop them.

I concur that a Giray appealing to Russia for aid is unlikely; too many grudges built up. However, WI he appeals to Russia's enemies for aid? Britain and France would love to keep Russia away from the Straits, and Austria isn't a big fan of pan-Slavic shenanigans, so they could help out.

Russia, I assume, will fear a Giray taking the Ottoman throne because a Giray Sultan might try to take the old homestead back. They might aid Mehmed Ali (though they might realize too late that he'd make the Empire stronger) to stop this.

Has Mehmed Ali exterminated the Mamelukes yet? If he hasn't, his enemies could aid dissatisfied Mamelukes in a plot against him, but the fact that the Mamelukes horribly exploited the Egyptian populace and were whipped by the French rather easily might make a successul rising difficult.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

"Even when fratricide was practiced, most of the princes already had children of their own, so they were not the only surviving males."

I thought the princes' kids got whacked too...I recall an incident where the pregnant concubines of an Ottoman prince were killed as well as the Prince himself. Was that an exception?

I mean that the "whacker" usually already had kids. So for instance, Selim I would have killed all his brothers, and his bothers' children, but not his own children.

Some Sultans went to the extreme of tying up all the harem women in sacks an throwing them into the sea just in case any of them were pregnant. Eeep!

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

So, what seems most likely is an Ottoman Empire that initially sees the Osmanli replaced by a Giray but in short order by Muhammed Ali out of Egypt (he has so many spellings of his name, sometimes I think he is fighting himself !) ?

It doesn't seem likely that a Giray would appeal to the Russians for aid

Also, if the problems in the Balkans are let run their course then Janina etc will be independent and the Greek revolt in place. Russia is going to be in the Principalities as well as the Caucasus. The question is where else ?

The date is important here - do we have a candidate date ? Or at least a period...!

Grey Wolf

I think you may be overestimating how much territory would be lost. It really depends upon whether or not a strong ruler ends up in place. The more territory lost, the greater the impetus to reform, and in the case of Mehmed Ali, he already has a modern military force with which to destroy conservative opposition and regain central control. The empire could actually end up stronger with him, as he had a head start, whereas Mahmud had to start with absolutely nothing and very gradually build up his power.

Your POD probably needs to be before 1828, when Mahmud destroyed the Janissaries and began his reform program.

I'll try to contribute more later, but I'm feeling a bit awful at the moment.

 

[MerryPrankster]

"I'll try to contribute more later, but I'm feeling a bit awful at the moment."

Grey said you weren't feeling so hot. I hope you feel better.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Amusingly in an ironic way, or ironic in an amusing way, my other abandoned thread was supposed to tie into this one

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3191

But i reckoned there would not be enough empire left

So, if Muhammed Ali DOES become sultan ? Could he bring the empire into the same sort of line as historical ? He would have problems - Baghdad, Janina, Greece etc. But if the Ottoman Empire under him could be an analogue to the OTL one, then the dynasties listed could see the ....um what do you call a dynasty of Muhammed Ali ?

Grey Wolf

 

[MerryPrankster]

"um what do you call a dynasty of Muhammed Ali ?"

You could call them "Alawites" (followers of Ali, I think) and that would lead to lots of confusion when discussing the Alawite sect of Syria.

Or perhaps they could be called "the Egyptians"; the problem with that is that Ali himself was Albanian.

If Muhammad Ali starts crushing rebellions against the Empire, things might get interesting. In OTL, forces under his command ravaged Greece and essentially put down the Greek uprising until the Powers intervened on behalf of the "suffering Christians." If he's too heavy handed, he might have all of Europe on his behind.

Hmm...here's a thought. Ali seizes the throne after the Osmanli line dies and goes on an energetic rebellion-crushing spree. However, his heavy-handed tactics (think Greece on a larger scale) outrage Europe and they drop the hammer on him. At the same time, Selim Giray and his people (assuming they can avoid being killed by Ali) are preparing their own move against Ali.

This could get very interesting.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Amusingly in an ironic way, or ironic in an amusing way, my other abandoned thread was supposed to tie into this one

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3191

But i reckoned there would not be enough empire left

So, if Muhammed Ali DOES become sultan ? Could he bring the empire into the same sort of line as historical ? He would have problems - Baghdad, Janina, Greece etc. But if the Ottoman Empire under him could be an analogue to the OTL one, then the dynasties listed could see the ....um what do you call a dynasty of Muhammed Ali ?

Grey Wolf

He would definitely be called Mehmed Ali, as Mehmed is the Ottoman version of Muhammed. He was always called that, until Arab nationalism, and now is retro-referred to as Muhammed Ali.

He might just marry an Ottoman princess and call himself Osmanli - I'm not sure what you would call it! He might just drop the Ali and become Mehmed V.

BTW, it is not certain what his ethnicity was - he commanded an Albanian unit, but I have seen many sources refer to him as a Turk. That doesn't matter at all for the TL, though - Allah only knows what the ethnicities of the Sultan's mothers were - Mahmud's was said to be French.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think the main problem I am having with all this is that reality was complicated enough, and to change it you need to fully understand it ! The great powers really complicate things, eg Russia and Unkiar Skelessi, and the Anglo-Austrian support for the sultan in 1840 against Ibrahim in Syria and Palestine. Looking at the motivations for these actions it becomes a bit of a confusing mess...

I am inclined in this ATL to have the Giray take power in Constantinople/Istanbul after defeating supporters of Mehmed Ali (Muhammed Ali). Muhammed Ali would then march on Anatolia - Syria will fall, but when he makes clear an intention to move on Istanbul I think the Giray will have to appeal to the powers.

How this plays oout depends on the date, and I am having trouble tying down the date - I want to set this after 1815, but before 1823 maybe ? From the website that mentioned Selim Giray it said that on 'several occasions' the conservatives threatened to overthrow Mahmud II and replace him with Selim Giray - but WHEN were these occasions ? He came to the throne in 1808 but not until 1826 did he feel he had the support of the ulema to move against the Janissaries. So, what is the best date ?

Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

No Details [they only get in the way]

POD Napolean is diverted from his Eygpt debacle.

This allows Mehmed Ali to continue with his Eygptian Development schemes, without european enterference. Also without losing all those troops, & ships in Eygpt, Nappy is stronger in Europe. with GB & Austria focused on France, Eygpt & the Ottomans remain a under secertary's sideshow in the foreign Ministries.

Mahmud II is overthrown and murdered. Civil strife in Istanbul occurs.Selim Giray who gains more backing and prevails.

But the change of dynasty and strife at the centre of power leads to a collapse in Ottoman authority. Mehmed Ali is straining at the bit and breaks off completely, takeing Jordan and Hejaz [Red Sea] with it.
Mean While independent-minded pashas in the Balkans set up their own political entities, e.g. in Janina. Montenegro and Serbia are additional areas of breakaway.

A Stronger France has some Butterflies [??Spain, Sweden??] But by 1816 Napolean is Gone and Europe looks around at a Independent Eygpt that controls Palistine & the Red sea [Suez didn't come till the 50's] & ?maybe Libya? A Russian Controlled Slavic Balkans, [on the Black sea side], & a Turkish empire run by Selim Giray [Turkey , Greece {in Rebellion}, Syria-Iraq,]

 

[Grey Wolf]

Duqesne, I think your outcome is possible but I don't see why it needs a different POD as most of these things were already there in OTL, either fully or would come later.

I am trying to understand the Great Powers view of affairs. If we say that the POD is in the period 1815-1820, we place it after Vienna but not too far. The powers are at this time anti-revolutionary, in the Holy Alliance, Quadruple Alliance and Congress system frame of mind. They do not as a whole want to do anything that upsets the balance of power - having just fought for the last few decades, they aren't interested in new general European wars. However, if something else upsets the balance of power then their viewpoints appear to be something like this :-

RUSSIA
Under Catherine The Great there were great plans to partition the Ottoman Empire between Russia and Austria, absorb the Principalities and create a new Byzantium as a Russian client state - hence one of her grandsons being named Konstantine.
Under Paul this view of things was dropped
Under Alexander I a kind of shifting point of view exists - Russia whilst hoping to preserve and dominate the Ottoman Empire also is happy to prise bits off it and try to set them up within the Russian orbit.
If push comes to shove, Russia is likely to revert to some blend of this policy and Catherine's if the Ottoman polity collapses completely from within

AUSTRIA
At the end of the eighteenth century, Austria shared Russia's intentions on carving up the Ottoman Empire, and agreements between the two powers had allotted to Austria Bosnia. Austria also had designs on Wallachia (but not the Dobruja).
By 1815 Austria's position is quite different - we see the beginnings of its policy not to annex any more Slav lands into the Habsburg empire. To this end Austria favours the survival of the Ottoman Empire, and the stable balance of power. It certainly doesn't want to see Russia gain massively and upset the whole shebang

BRITAIN
Britain has come to adopt a policy already which is based on being the antithesis of Russia's - i.e seeking to cancel any potential advantages for Russia. To that end, as the collapse of the Ottoman Empire would most benefit Russia, Britain is against it

FRANCE
Under Charles X France has something of an ambiguous policy towards the Ottoman Empire. Being traditionally a friend and ally of it from the eighteenth century onwards (and with a short Napoleon-in-Egypt blip also in the nineteenth), France generally prefers to see the empire survive. However, there are rivalries with Britain and Russia, as well as French interests in Egypt, Syria and (as would become more deep in 1830) Algiers.
France would probably not be unhappy to see the collapse of the Ottoman Empire if she emerged with significant gains herself

Do people generally agree with these ?

Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

Duqesne, I think your outcome is possible but I don't see why it needs a different POD

My sence of the area and time {mostly got from reading past comments on this Board} is that Mehmed Ali Was doing a good job, on developing Eygpt, INTILL Napolean dragged The whole [Napolean Wars/European Empire Building] into the area. This Aborted the forces Mehmed Ali had started.

Keep Napolean out of Eygpt, He stays stronger not loseing those Ships, Men, & Supplies. His Reputation stays more invicible. There are minor Butterflies in Europe, But by the post war era The Butterflies started by Mehmed Ali lead to the end of the Ottomans, dispite what the Great Powers want.