The Shogunate forever

Sly, that's an even better idea. Let's somehow have a military coup cause a small but major conflict within the Russian empire, leading to the Russian Revolution occuring in 1901.
 
I kinda want a little bit of divergence but I suppose the rapid modernization set up here in addition to aid from France could be the divergence.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way, you're looking at the international situation and how Japan operates there, in this timeline though I'd recomend you look internally at Japans domestic situation and base the timeline around that. Really focus on the impact of Tokugawa Yoshinobu as the head of the Japaneese government and write about how you think he would run things.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

In my timeline, due to a different treaty with Prussia and the Zollverein, the reform-leaning Clans of both the Tenno´s and the Shogun´s side are forced to work together against the Bakufu hardliners. So while the Shogunate of old will fall, due to this cooperation parts of the Shogunate will survive the coming confrontation.
Since you look for ideas, I´d be honoured if you take a look at my "Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel" TL.
 
What if in 1870 the Shogunate succeeded in their rebellion against the Emperor and booted him from the throne?

I don't recall any 1870's Shogunate rebellions OTL or rather by any ex-Shogunate retainers or members...
 
Let's have somewhat of an alternate scenario...

Japan invades Korea still, but rather than invading Manchuria next, attacks Vietnam and attempts to annex it.

If they attack Vietnam, that would get the French involved. I can sort of see something like bad Anglo-French relations leading to Japan (a British ally at the time) attacking Vietnam, but it would have to be after Russia has firm control of Manchuria. Even then the Japanese would probably have their hands tied due to having to field a large force to defend Korea.
 
RE: Rebellion they tried to establish a new state in Hokkaido...

Okay, so lets take this in a different direction.

Since most of the emperors advisors were Ishin-shishi, we can presume the Shinsengumi would be the new Shogunate government's closest advisors, with the emperor remaining a puppet king.
 
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