The Shogunate forever

I kinda wanna make my first timeline from this but I'm not sure where to start. What if in 1870 the Shogunate succeeded in their rebellion against the Emperor and booted him from the throne? The Shogunate were famously more recieving towards the foreign powers, so I highly suspect Japan would become a puppet state between the foreign powers and somewhat of a Schizo Tech version of Edo Japan, with a feudal system still in place, but cutting edge for the time tech....

Any other speculations?
 
I actually think the Shogunate would do just as well if not better than the Emperor at modernizing the country. The Shogun at the time of the rebellion was an incredibly skilled man who would be more than capable of dealing with the west. Whats likely is that a lot more of traditional Japanese culture may survive (for example they may keep traditional clothing rather than adopting western styles). And I think overtime they'd be just as capable of putting the Daimyo's in their place as the empire. Especially since they just conclusively beat the most rebellious of them and have those rebellious ones at their mercy.

PS: I'd really say the emperor was the one rebelling against the Shogunate more than the other way around.
 
Even in a Shogunate victory their not booting the Emperor who was seen as a god, the closest the Shogunate might do is replace the emperor with a more loyal family similar to what in the during the Northern and Southern court period. The only other changes I could see is a more pressing need for modern weapons and technology, and those clans who backed the emperor suffering even more.
 
Would the invasions of China, Korea happen as they did in the real world? Yeah guys thanks I'm jotting all this down because I wanna write a timeline/story revolving around all this.
 
Would the invasions of China, Korea happen as they did in the real world? Yeah guys thanks I'm jotting all this down because I wanna write a timeline/story revolving around all this.

I hate to give an annoying response but thats really a big "depends on what happens in between", a lot of what happens to Korea depends on what happens to the Russians in the intervening time and China had so much going on there that no matter what happens in Japan things are likely to end up different from OTL. It would probably be good if someone along the way in Japan realized that invading China is insane and a terrible idea.
 
Heck, I will take this all the way and have an additional point of diversion: Russia attempts to invade Korea rather than Japan, seeing Japan's even more rapid modernization than in our timeline and deciding they are too big a threat.
 
Russia never tried to invade Japan, the Russo-Japanese war started over Russian in Manchuria and in whose sphere of influence was Manchuria in. If Japan doesn't get involved in Imperialism and China still gets carved into Spheres of influence. Russia could have Korea in it's Sphere provided the other Great Powers don't take offense.
 
Duuuh that was a brainfart on my part....

What i meant to say was instead of coming to a head over Manchuria, Russia invade Korea, the events of the Sino Japan war never occured in the timeline..
 
Duuuh that was a brainfart on my part....

What i meant to say was instead of coming to a head over Manchuria, Russia invade Korea, the events of the Sino Japan war never occured in the timeline..

Well that would be an awkward looking border if Russia doesn't formally annex or make a protectorate out of Manchuria. (and honestly I actually don't see them not fighting over Manchuria, even if Japan doesn't want to directly control it Russia controling Manchuria is a bad thing overall for the Japaneese, even if in the end they just enforce the independence of both regions.
 
Duuuh that was a brainfart on my part....

What i meant to say was instead of coming to a head over Manchuria, Russia invade Korea, the events of the Sino Japan war never occured in the timeline..

Japan and Russia were on a "collision course" over Korea, you might say. A modern Japan which seeks to be a Great Power has many needs, most of which are fulfilled by dominating (and OTL, eventually annexing) Korea (land, people, resources, strategic depth, prestige). Russia, for its part, saw Korea as a natural expansion point from Manchuria, which it devoted great effort to trying to control.

If the Sino-Japanese War never occurs (which was, in addition to a stepping stone in Japan's rise to the world stage), then it would imply Japan's still withdrawn into itself. Which, in turn, would imply further isolationism.

Full isolationism is unlikely, you realize, if only because by the 1850s, Japan was being forcibly opened up. If you have a continue of the xenophobic Sonno Joi policies, then Japan might be closer to OTL Qing China, with all that entails.
 
Let's have somewhat of an alternate scenario...

Japan invades Korea still, but rather than invading Manchuria next, attacks Vietnam and attempts to annex it.
 
Let's have somewhat of an alternate scenario...

Japan invades Korea still, but rather than invading Manchuria next, attacks Vietnam and attempts to annex it.
Not a chance. The French were the biggest backer of the Shogunate and they would be quick to tell the Shogun to back off.

Granted France didnt control all of Indochina yet in 1880, but they have an interest in the region already, which they wouldnt appreciate the Japanese pushing in on. A decade later (OTL First Sino-Japanese war) the French would have established their protectorate, closing the window of opportunity.
 
I forgot Vietnam was part of Indochina!!!

Alright, lets take that back and have the Manchurian invasion proceed as usual, but rather than have them attempt to expand over the whole of China, have Manchuria converted into a buffer state between Japan and Russia.
 
I forgot Vietnam was part of Indochina!!!

Alright, lets take that back and have the Manchurian invasion proceed as usual, but rather than have them attempt to expand over the whole of China, have Manchuria converted into a buffer state between Japan and Russia.

This was actually a Japanese plan IIRC, suggested to Russia before the Russo-Japanese war. The Russian response, IIRC, was to suggest the opposite with Korea as the buffer state. With the two countries at loggerheads, it came to war.
 
Biggest problem is getting someone like Nicholas II to give so much to "a bunch of yellow monkeys."

And that was just an example, anyhow. Thirty years after the Meiji restoration is a bit late for anything involving the shogunate. That's not to say politics wouldn't develop too differently, so a Shogunate Japan could well end up in a similar conflict. In which case OTL does largely follow that proposal, but with Japanese taking the concessions in Manchuria.
 
Lets think...what would it take?

Well theoretically some kind of great military victory could impress them.
 
Could you somehow get an earlier Russian Revolution, or at least an attempted one, forcing Nicholas to agree to those terms, at least temporarily?
 
I kinda want a little bit of divergence but I suppose the rapid modernization set up here in addition to aid from France could be the divergence.
 
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