Advance Australia Fair

Aug-71 Overseas
NASA launches Apollo 14/S to Spacelab 3. The three crew complete a 91 day mission, including a 7 day extension to conduct additional flare observations using the lab's solar observatory cameras. Their flight includes half and full rest days, alternating weekly. Mission commander Jim Lovell uses several of these to make short video recordings of simple science experiments in zero gravity, which are later broadcast in schools across America.


Aug-71
Christmas Island A2 (253 Sqn RAF) and Ascension Island (251 Sqn RAF) Black Anvil missile sites are declared operational. Each site has only two missiles when activated, a number that will grow to 6 when the sites are completed in 1973.


Sep-71
The British Government's guarantee to sustain Orion engine production comes back to bite. Treasury appointed auditors at the new company Rolls-Royce (1971), find that the development and production cost of Orion engines has been severely understated over a period of years. The merger of Bristol-Siddeley and Rolls-Royce in 1966 was poorly managed and the cost bases have never been properly amalgamated or accounted for. In addition, increased requirements for testing and operational modifications to the engines have never been allowed for in the price (Rolls simply agreed to keep delivering the engines for the original contract price, even when changes were needed).
The result of all this is that Rolls Royce will need an additional £41M to cover Orion development and tests that are already underway. The engines are being sold for £215,000 each. They cost the firm at least £341,000 to build and test.
The Government have no alternative, they agree to meet the costs and to raise the price paid for each engine to £375,000, effective immediately. As a consequence, costs to the Selene Project (which are met by the Government), are likely to rise by £34.6M in the period to the end of 1973.

Aurora 9 commander John Roberts leads the first group of Selene astronauts to the US to train with NASA personnel in Nevada. The US has offered to allow Selene crews to use some of their Apollo training facilities and systems. In return, NASA experiments will be carried to the Moon on Selene flights. Later crews will receive more specialist training in the deployment of these experiments.


Aurora 10
The longest and perhaps the dullest of all the Aurora missions begins at 10:53 local time. Cdr Armand Laplane and Navigator James Aldworth spend 19 days 8 hours in space, testing the longevity and reliability of “l’Esprit”, their VDL and PROM.
The flight does include the first test deployment of the VDL's landing legs in zero-gravity and sets a record for the number and duration of spacewalks. Over 8 separate walks, the crew spend a total of 19 hours 8 minutes outside the ship and spend 6 "nights" in the VDL's surface hab.
With little fuel on board (to save weight for supplies and the landing legs, this VDL-B is not fitted with a main engine), no major manoeuvres are attempted until the PROM separates on day 15. The crew spend the next 4 days in a real-time simulation of a return from the Moon, making brief engine burns at the appropriate times.
The only significant anomaly on the flight is the failure of one of the three landing parachutes. The RM splashes down hard but safely in the Indian Ocean.


Princess flying boat No.1 is damaged on landing at Halifax. The boat struck a submerged object, causing significant flooding. Quick thinking by the pilot saves the boat and the Black Anvil missile on its back; he beaches it on a nearby shoal. There are no facilities at Halifax to unload the missile from the boat's back so it has to be patched and re-floated as is. A temporary repair is made to allow a flight back to the UK. An engine failure on the way home only adds to list of faults, although the Princess safely lands back at Filton.

The first "stage and a half" of a Constellation booster is erected on the pad at Rainbow Beach. This consists of three live, flightworthy cores linked by the complex structure of the Constellation Stage Adaptor (CSA) at the top and the Propellant Transfer Assembly (PTA) at the bottom. Early concepts of simply "strapping three Silver Star cores together" have long since proven to be naïve. All three cores of the Constellation’s first stage are significantly different from "ordinary" Silver Stars. The central core is strengthened with thicker tank walls and a revised upper structure to accommodate the CSA. A set of secondary fuel lines allow it to accept the transfer of propellants from the two outer cores during flight.
These outer cores are fitted with short aerodynamic nose cones and each carries a 20'x6' fairing on their lower sides. This accommodates an HTP tank and turbopump which is used to transfer fuel from the outboard tanks to the central core, approximately balancing the fuel being used by the core's engines. This means that when the outer cores shut down and separate at about 50km altitude, the central core is still almost fully fuelled and able to carry its payload much higher and faster than if all three cores burned out together.


Oct-71
Damage to Princess No.1 is found to be more extensive than first thought. Several structural ribs of the hull are distorted and other inspections have found (unrelated) fatigue strains in wing roots and engine mounts. The aircraft is declared a write-off. The accident at Bermuda leaves only one Princess still flying. Fortunately this is the modified No.2 boat, which is equipped with more modern engines and a strengthened wing structure.
The MoD issues orders for a backup plan to be implemented to guarantee delivery of deterrent missiles to their launch sites. Two naval supply ships are put on standby to transport the missiles inside a special shroud which can be fitted to the deck.

European Economic Community governments open discussions with the ultimate goal of forming a pan-European space agency. The idea is to build on the existing European Space Research Organisation, of which all EEC countries are members. To date, this has produced few results as both Italy and France are pursuing independent national programmes, while the Germans are building a set of probes in co-operation with NASA. To date, ESRO’s only notable project is the development of a small scientific satellite, which the French have offered to launch on a "Diamant" rocket in 1972.
All parties except the French support the idea of including the UK in these discussions. Nevertheless, French opposition is implacable as they do not wish to be drawn into another space programme in which they are seen to be subordinate to British interests and technology. Without British involvement, the other nations regard ESRO as a very limited entity with little ability to promote European capabilities in space. Without French support, any idea of expansion will never make any progress at all. Negotiations are set to continue.

Hermes-C1 / SSLV-17
TV and radio relay satellite launched for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. The Silver Star’s core engine looses hydraulic power at T+323s. Pressure decay in the system results in the engine drifting slightly off centre, pushing the nose of the rocket down. 98 seconds later, the core shuts down and stages normally despite the unusual pitch rate. The upper stage’s guidance system pitches up but is unable to fully correct the error, and the stage shuts down at 152km altitude for a 16 minute coast - planned altitude was 185km. Pre-programmed GTO and GSO burns take place, but the low initial altitude throws off all the settings. The satellite is released into a 33,760x34,220km orbit, inclined at 1.4 degrees, far lower than the geostationary orbit that is required (planned to be 35,800x35,900km at 0.1deg).
However, the satellite is in orbit and its systems respond to ground commands. Over the next month, controllers use about 45% of the satellite’s on board fuel to achieve the intended orbital position. Signal quality from the TV relay system is poor. It is suspected that the antenna or its feed system suffered thermal damage during the very low initial orbit, which would have seen the unprotected satellite skimming through the upper atmosphere. Adequate relay performance is achieved by operating the amplifiers above their rated levels, with the result that two of them fail in the first 18 months of operation. Two of six generators also loose fluid pressure and fail in the first year.
TV operations end in February 1974 when fuel runs low. Satellite switched off on 23 April 1974.


Launch preparations for Hermes-A2 are halted pending a review of the faults in the C1 flight. Hermes A1, the first Australian TV satellite launched in 1968, is still performing well so there is little need to rush to launch its sister satellite.

Nov-71 Overseas
The Soviets triumphantly announce the flight of "Zond 9". This unmanned test of their new N-1 super rocket is reported to be a complete success. A large trans-lunar injection stage was placed into an Earth orbit, which boosted itself and an instrumented payload towards the Moon four hours after liftoff. Several photographs of the launch appear in the Soviet press the next day, while bombastic reports state that the rocket’s thrust of over 3,500 tonnes makes it nearly twice as powerful as the American Saturn III.
[Technically, quite true, of course what they didn’t say is that the much more efficient design of the 3 stage Saturn gives it much the same LEO and TLI payload as the “more powerful” 4 stage N-1]

Two days later, NASA announces that its probe Mariner 9 has entered orbit around Mars, becoming the first spacecraft to orbit another planet. Early images show a featureless surface and there is concern that the optical systems are faulty (earlier Mars missions showed that the surface is cratered and mountainous). It is later realised that the entire planet is covered in a dust storm, sparking much greater interest in the planet. Mars is clearly a much more active world than was first thought.

Nov-71
The lower stages of the CLV-4 launch vehicle are test fired together on the pad at Rainbow Beach.
All 21 engines ignite in a 3.3 second sequence and fire together for 3.8 seconds. Thrust reaches a maximum of over seven million pounds once all the engines reach full power. The stages are then de-fuelled and both pad and rocket are checked for damage.

Telemetry points towards an auxiliary gearbox failure on the centre engine of SSLV-17 which left the hydraulic system without power. The next time the engine was commanded to move a few seconds later, the hydraulic system lost most of its remaining pressure, leaving the engine locked in one position. No cause can be isolated from the flight data, however inspections of other engines show that several have been filled with the wrong grade of hydraulic fluid. The much lighter fluid found in those engines would have caused higher loads on the hydraulic pumps and gearbox, potentially leading to the failure. The launch report concludes that it was extremely lucky that the launch vehicle reached orbit at all; just a few tenths of a degree of additional gimbal would have sent it crashing back into the atmosphere.

In response to a question from the Department for Trade and Industry, engineers from BAC explain that the Silver Star launcher cannot be directly controlled once it leaves the ground. The guidance system follows a pre-planned flight path and has some ability to correct for errors during the various manoeuvres (i.e. if the vehicle is to low, it tries to "steer up"). What it cannot do is "think for itself". As an example, the recent fault on SSLV-17 led to the upper stage achieving a 152 km orbit; much lower than the planned 185km. Once in orbit the guidance system did not "know" that that it was too low, it operated on the basis that these last manoeuvre (the ascent) had been completed successfully. It then followed its pre-programmed instructions, with timings and velocity changes calculated before the flight based on a 185km starting point. Consequently, every burn was just a bit off and the satellite was injected into an orbit that was lower than originally planned.
Officials ask why the system cannot be reprogrammed in flight, or just be controlled from the ground. It is explained that ground control is not possible as the rocket flies out over the Pacific, beyond the reach of direct radio command.
A guidance system that is capable of being updated is under development as part of the Selene Project, but is a French project for the much larger ECPS upper stage. Installing a similar system on Silver Star would cost in the region of £1M per flight, with a further £4-6M for the additional facilities required to update the system as it orbits over the Pacific. The additional mass needed to carry the system would reduce the payload capability by 200-250kg, which would be a problem when launching the heavy Hermes satellites.


Dec-71
Launch vehicles for Aurora 11 and Hermes-A2 are cleared for flight following hydraulic system checks in the assembly building.

Dec-71 Overseas
The Soviets announce that their Mars 3 lander has successfully touched down on the Martian surface, but that telemetry ceased after just a few minutes [actually only seconds]. No significant data was returned, beyond confirmation of touchdown. In the West, the reports are widely dismissed and it is assumed that the lander crashed, or maybe it never even reached Mars.

In the US, two journalists, Walter Fennel and Martin Reisman, are prosecuted over the leak of USAF plans for the Space Shuttle. Documents found in their possession show that the Air Force is planning a system to rapidly retrieve or deploy satellites from the Shuttle, as well as a mission kit to allow an unspecified payload to be released “at an ultra-low orbital altitude”. In later published articles, they speculate that the Shuttle could be used as an orbital bomber.
[After the Cold War, the entire story was revealed as being a disinformation plan. Fennel and Reisman had been deliberately given information that would lead to these misleading conclusions, in one of several attempts to convince the Soviets that the Shuttle had “other uses”. It was hoped that they would divert some of their limited resources into countering this non-existent threat. In 1972 both journalists were found guilty of espionage, but were given relatively light sentences. They were pardoned in 1995. The “orbital bomber” story ran on and off for years after 1971, and a fictionalised version of the leaks and a lone journalists’ attempts to alert the world to this dangerous new weapon featured as the plot of Robert Redford's 1981 espionage thriller “Star Wars”*].


Dec-71
A second test firing of the CLV-4 first stages produces an unexpectedly high level of stress on the Stage Adaptor during the engine start sequence. Neither core nor adaptor is damaged, but measurements show that peak stresses were 32% greater than expected. The adaptor was designed with a 40% safety factor, meaning that the margin before failure was perilously small on this test. A margin of 30% above actual measured loads is regarded as the absolute minimum that is acceptable before a manned flight can be considered.

Hawker Siddeley propose a small satellite launch vehicle (named "Black Prince" in the firm's glossy brochure for the concept). The launcher is based on a surplus Blue Streak missile, topped with a Methane-fuelled stage derived from the PROM’s PM. Performance would be very similar to the old Blue Star Mk.3. The Department for Trade and Industry expresses no interest, beyond offering to assist the firm in finding an international partner for the venture.


Aurora 11 / S-139
The “Adventure” lifts off from Rainbow Beach carrying the first Australian astronaut. Cdr James Lyon and his French navigator Xavier Tigges reach orbit seven minutes later and proceed to a 202x205km orbit using the VDL's thrusters. Their primary mission begins on day 2 with a spacewalk from the PROM to the VDL’s Hab. Once there, Tigges removes his PROM flight suit and, with Lyon’s help, puts on a new design of spacesuit, a prototype of the version that will be used on the lunar surface.
The new suit has a hard shell from the waist to the neck, with hard upper arm coverings attached by flexible joints. The lower arms and complete lower body assembly are more traditional multi-layered fabrics, with one piece boots added on twist-lock joints. Unlike earlier Selene suits, the upper body area includes liquid cooled panels which make contact with the astronaut's back and chest to provide direct cooling to the body during strenuous activity. The rest of the suit features an improved air cooling system.
Earlier suits had to be put on much as ordinary clothes are. This new design is entered through a hatch in the back of the upper body shell. On the outside, the hatch carries a life support backpack which provides oxygen, cooling, communication and power while the astronaut is outside. The newly designed helmet has a wider field of view and allows two tubes to poke up from the torso, which will allow the astronaut to drink water and a high-energy fruit juice during longer spacewalks.
On a second spacewalk lasting over 3 hours, Tigges tests the flexibility of the suit and does "zero-G push ups" in which he uses his own body’s inertia to provide the exercise needed to test the suit's improved cooling system. He reports that he feels warm, but not badly overheated. Once he has finished “pumping vacuum” (as Jim Lyon puts it), the crew re-enter the VDL's hab for their night’s rest.

Day 3 is given over to testing the procedures for refuelling the PROM. It is not possible to practice every detail of the fuel transfer (this is zero-G, not the low gravity of the Moon's surface), however Lyon and Tigges work together to move a water filled tank attached to the side of the VDL, clamp it in a new position and attempt to attach two lines to the tank and to connectors on the VDL.
Everything takes longer than expected as the pair struggle to handle the bulky tank and obstinately springy lines in zero gravity. At the end of a 30 minute extension to their spacewalk, they abandon the task of attaching the second line and return to the Hab. A series of camera tests are cancelled while the crew talk to engineers and other astronauts on the ground to help devise a plan for the following day.

On day 4 they succeed in attaching the second line, using straps from the Hab's interior storage compartments to hold it in place while they clamp two liquid tight flange seals together. Valves are opened and the lines and seals are shown to be liquid and gas tight. The pair then move a second tank which contains an automated fluid transfer experiment.

The next two days are fully occupied by navigation tests using both the VDL and PROM controls. The crew make a series of minor orbit adjustments and practice sighting landmarks and reference stars. A new design of film camera that will be used on the Moon is briefly tested at the end of the Day 5 spacewalk. Poor weather in the recovery area forces the crew to extend their mission by 4 orbits and land further East than originally planned. They splash down safely at the end of a six and a half day flight.
James Lyon, formerly a Lt-Commander in the Royal Australian Navy, is cheered aboard HMAS Melbourne less than an hour later.


* I couldn't resist turning that one on its head.
 
My hope is that while this particular thread's days are numbered, just as it had a predecessor it may have a successor--there will be a post-Selene Anglo-French, or possibly broader European, space program with new goals and some new equipment.
...
I thus hope some sort of post-Selene new European project is in the cards for a successor TL.

But I do appreciate how much work has gone into this one; if you are writing all this stuff new on the fly, a successor should go great. But it occurs to me it may have taken you years to get the material for "Selene" organized and we are seeing the output of a long-accumulated buffer of material; if so working out a post-Selene time line in such detail might require a long interval of years to get it to the same standard.

I do have several possible successors in mind, however it would take a while as I don't just want to do "more of the same".
The basic plot was written before I even started posting it, but lots of description and a few of the side plots have been edited and clarified based on my re-reading it and the various comments of folks on this board. If something has been popular or provoked discussion, it has often been expanded. The Shuttle is a good example - there was very little detail on it originally, beyond the fact that it existed and started in 1970.
 
The End of an Era

Jan-72
257 Squadron (RAF) is formally disbanded. The squadron had operated 16 Blue Streak missiles which were deactivated in November.
The remaining 12 operational Blue Streaks, under the control of 252 Squadron, will be kept active until later in the year. The squadron will then be re-equipped with Black Anvil missiles at their new base at RAF Thurso.

Jan-72 Overseas
NASA and US intelligence brief the administration on Soviet capabilities and intentions in space.
Disputes between designers and ministries are delaying development of both a small space station called "Salyut" and the LK lunar lander. The four/five stage N-1, which has 24 engines on its first stage, will need extensive testing before it is ready for operational use. Despite having nearly twice the engine power of the Saturn III, the N-1 uses Kerosene fuel in all its stages and can therefore only put about 70t into orbit, versus the 65t of the Saturn III.
An earlier plan to send a single cosmonaut down to the lunar surface is known to have been rejected following delays to the N-1. It is now known that the Soviets are planning to use two N-1 rockets to launch their manned lunar mission, which will send an LK-M lander to the surface from an orbiting mothership known as the LOK. Official Soviet plans call for this mission to be flown in 1972, however this is clearly a ridiculously optimistic schedule. Nevertheless, steady progress has been made since 1970 and they might be ready to attempt a landing by 1974.
They expect to be able to send crews to their “Salyut” space station later this year. The offer to conduct a joint Earth orbit mission with the US has been cautiously received in Moscow and they are unwilling to commit to specifics of who should dock with what. A simple "Apollo to Soyuz" docking may be all that is realistically possible.

NASA are instructed to continue and, where possible, expand cooperation with the Selene Project. Back channel discussions have taken place regarding the possibility of flying American astronauts on Selene flights, in return for access to US space stations and ground facilities.
The Agency also launches Apollo 15/S to Spacelab 3. The flight successfully completes a 43 day Earth observation and materials science mission. One highlight of what is seen as a fairly routine mission is the testing of two "Extravehicular Mobility Units" or EMUs (widely known as "jet packs") which allow the astronauts to fly completely independently outside the station, unrestrained by the tethers used on all previous spacewalks.


Feb-72
A European summit includes discussions regarding the possibility of Britain being included in the European Space Research Organisation, or ESRO. In 1970, the Organisation, led by France and Germany, initiated a satellite communications research programme called “Symphonie”.
The purpose of the project is to develop and launch a series of satellites capable of TV and telephone relay (although not the "direct to home" TV relay of Britain's Hermes system) in order to provide an independent European alternative to the US dominated Intelsat network. During the preliminary discussions in 1968 and ’69, the UK was asked to join the programme, however the British government expressed no interest. As a leading member of Intelsat, there seemed little point in the UK supporting a competing system.
The Symphonie satellite design is now in its late stages and it is hoped to launch the first experimental version in 1974. Earlier co-operation between the Italian and German space research agencies and NASA had led to a launch being secured on an American Atlas-Centaur rocket. However, in January 1972 the US administration demanded changes to the terms of the agreement; no commercial operations would be permitted if NASA was to launch the satellites.
Although a member of the Selene Project, having the successful "Diamant" small launcher and a growing long range missile force, France has never developed a launch vehicle capable of sending the 1.5 ton Symphonie satellites towards Geostationary orbit. A rocket could be developed from the work done on ICBMs and the ECPS upper stage for Selene, but this would take several years and add at least two billion Francs to the cost of Symphonie.
France's partners in ESRO are not prepared to bear this cost and point out that the British Silver Star rocket could easily launch the satellites. With her desire to join the Common Market, Britain is unlikely to impose the same restrictions as the US, and might be further encouraged with the promise of membership of ESRO.

Hawker Siddeley and Lockheed sign a joint memorandum of understanding. The firms will seek to work together to put a modified Lockheed "Agena" upper stage on top of surplus Blue Streak missiles. This combination would create a small-medium satellite launcher that could be targeted at the export market for the next few years until the Space Shuttle becomes available. To avoid US laws requiring that NASA has control of all American space launches, the project would be 51% owned by Hawker, with 49% owned by Lockheed. Costs would be shared accordingly.


SERP-6
A French Diamant-B rocket puts a 61kg reference satellite into a 278x282km orbit. This carries a radio transponder and a switchable flashing beacon. It will provide a target point for orbital manoeuvers during the upcoming Aurora 12 flight.


Mission analysts at the Selene Project conclude that a single 3-man, 3-launch lunar landing would provide a greater level of surface exploration capability and scientific return than a pair of two-man missions. They propose that if Selene 5 is a success, the two-launch Selene 7 and 8 missions be upgraded to three-launch flights.
Although never fully implemented, an old study by BAC confirmed that the PROM can be modified to carry a crew of 3. The manned and fuel cargo VDL landers would be supplemented by an additional cargo lander which would carry most of the surface supplies and a large amount of scientific equipment. A safe landing and return to Earth would still be possible even if this third lander failed.


Mar-72
OFT-2 Operational Flight Test of Black Anvil from Rainbow Beach. Details remain classified.


Constellation Launch Vehicle #4 (CLV-4) is mounted back onto its launch pad at Rainbow Beach. The analysis of unexpected stresses found in earlier test firings is now complete. Engine shutdown sequences and gimbal limits have been modified, and parts of the Stage Adaptor have been reinforced to cope with additional loads.
Several full power test firings are conducted safely. Peak stresses on the Stage Adaptor are now measured to be 36% below the design’s capability, a number that is regarded as acceptable for operational use of the rocket. Two of the tests include operation of the Propellant Transfer Assembly, a set of pumps designed to transfer fuel and Oxygen from the outer cores to the central core during flight.

HSD come under pressure from the GPO over the delivery of Hermes Mk.2 satellites.
Launch of the first Mk.2 satellite was planned for March 1973, but delays due to strike action at several suppliers and problems with the control system mean that the launch is likely to be delayed by 3 months. Failures on the existing Hermes 3 spacecraft have left the UK television system with no spare relay capacity. If any more satellite transmitters go wrong, one of the UK's TV stations will have to go off the air.

The Selene Board meets to discuss the possibility of conducting joint missions with the US. Informal contact between US and British governments has shown that the US might be willing to provide additional technical facilities and subsidise Selene operations that are directly connected with flying an American astronaut on a lunar flight. Both British and Australian Board members are supportive of the idea that a US astronaut could fly as a third crewmember on a later flight - perhaps on Selene 7 or 8.
The French are not so enthusiastic, indeed this is the first meeting at which Board members make it clear that France will not support any extension of existing Selene Project plans. French official opinion is that the Project has already achieved its real objective of building a strong aerospace sector in France and that there is more to be gained from pursuing other European projects such as Symphonie, than there is from a series of lunar landings.

Despite French objections, British and Australian support for the Project is still strong. Britain's space industry appears to be on the cusp of becoming self-sustaining with civil and export orders, while Australia's more modest contributions are being repaid with worldwide publicity for the young nation as a strong, independent and technically advanced country. The glamourous image of Australia's "Sun, Sea and Space Coast" features in many international campaigns aimed at attracting large numbers of British and European immigrants. The numbers of highly educated people, including world class engineers and scientists, applying for Australian citizenship or visas had reached a new record level in 1971.


Hermes-A2
SSLV-18 launches Australia’s second TV relay satellite. The Silver Star completes a near-perfect 7h 18m mission to place the Hermes satellite in a 35,620x35,835km orbit.
Problems start when the transmitter payload is turned on. The entire "A" side of the relay system fails to respond, drawing power but not accepting or relaying any signals. Switching several components to the functioning "B" side of the payload tells controllers that A-side power electronics and the first stage amplifier are damaged and non-functional. The failure means that the satellite can only relay one TV channel.
The satellite is hardly used until November 1972, when it takes over from Hermes A-1 to broadcast ABC1. The backup control receiver is used from October 1974 following a failure in the primary system. Mission ends in December 1975. Last contact was on 16th January 1976.


Apr-72
Launch crews complete a full countdown dress rehearsal on CLV-4. A normal countdown (including "planned holds") is supposed to take 7 days from start to launch. This first complete test of the vehicle and launch procedures took 18 days due to issues with communications, anomalies on the booster, systems failures on the pad and errors in the countdown sequence. The long countdown is not entirely unexpected, indeed the primary goal of this first rehearsal was to work through the procedures and double-check anything that needed fixing.

Hopes of a deal between HSD and Lockheed to build a Blue Streak derived launch vehicle are scuppered by the US government's refusal to allow any non-US involvement with any part of the "Agena" stage, which is regarded as a national security asset. The entire deal never really stood a chance. NASA took a dim view of this attempt to circumvent its launch service monopoly and the possible threat to the Agency’s desire to put more payloads on the Space Shuttle. Lobbying by McDonnell Douglas, builders of the competing Delta rocket, also helped persuade the administration to block the export of Agena (or any Agena-derived) stages.

The second Constellation launch facility is completed at Rainbow Beach Launch Pad No.8.
Both pads will be needed to support lunar flights, each of which will normally require two launches to be made within a month. Although it is theoretically possible to erect and launch a booster in 20 days, there are no plans to attempt two launches from a single pad in one month.

Apr-72 Overseas
The Soviets announce the recovery of Zond 10, an unmanned "advanced Soyuz", launched 7 days earlier on their new N-1 rocket. Unlike earlier flights, this one entered an orbit around the Moon and stayed there for a day before boosting itself back towards Earth. The capsule lands safely in Khazakstan.


May-72
HSD offer the design of their Blue Streak derived satellite launcher to ESRO and independently to the German and Italian space agencies. Their concept is now called "Europa" and it is proposed that ESRO or one of these agencies develops and builds the upper stages that will be needed to complete the vehicle.

The last operational Blue Streak is decommissioned. These intermediate-range missiles have carried Britain’s nuclear deterrent for almost a decade, besides putting the UK’s first satellite into orbit in 1962 and making up the first stage of the Blue Star satellite launcher. The UK's strategic nuclear deterrent now rests with Black Anvil. RAF Vulcan and FAA Buccaneer bombers also have the ability to carry tactical nuclear weapons. Once government owned (and still highly classified) equipment such as the inertial navigation system is removed, the missiles will be turned over to Hawker Siddeley on the basis that the firm will be able to refurbish them for use them as launch vehicles. The British government will receive a share of any profits from such use.

May-72 Overseas
The Soviet probe Lunokhod 2 makes a successful landing on the Moon. The rover operates for 5 lunar days, covering a distance of over 18km and returning thousands of images and spectrographic data of numerous surface sites. Beyond a few early surface images, very little data is published in the West until the 1990s.
 
Um, wow!

1) N-1 is working, at least sort of. We might fear that the dang thing will work OK on test loads and unmanned probes, only to crash when the Soviets finally trust it for something really critical. But they are clearly ahead of OTL with any successful launches at all! To be sure, it is a downgraded model compared to what was tried and failed OTL--but it works, at least sometimes.

If Soyuz-LOK or some ATL version of it is ready, they can do a Lunar orbiting mission right now. If they can rely on two in a row launching correctly, a workable lander for one cosmonaut can also be placed into LLO, meaning that manned orbital mission becomes a Moon landing mission, if only a token one.

With three launches, they can land quite a good vehicle indeed.

The Americans can do the same with Apollo and a new moon landing vehicle, same trade-offs except the American lander with a two-launch version would be significantly more capable than the LK type thing the Soviets could do with just two launches. An American triple launch of three Saturn III's ought to enable quite a spectacular long and accomplished extended stay mission

But...
2) Rather than do this, the Americans are now trying to get in on Selene instead?

I remember that Kennedy did not commit the USA to a landing "before the decade is out," and now the decade is indeed out. But though the deadline was relaxed, it was implicit anyway that JFK intended the USA to be second to none, and that whenever it was timely for an American landing to take place that landing should be the first by any nation.

I could see the Yanks, at this desperate juncture, offering to combine Apollo with Selene. Make the Apollo the vehicle that astronauts launch and return to Earth in; put up a lot of money to get the PROM and its descent vehicle redesigned so it is launched unmanned, and lightened by replacing the return capsule/habitat, deleting it and expanding the habitation on the descent stage, reducing the PROM to a very light ascent stage to return the two man landing crew to a third astronaut in wait aboard an Apollo. Lighten the European craft enough and there is no need for a third vehicle to refuel the PROM/VDL derived vehicle. It can carry enough ascent fuel for returning the crew to an Apollo.

Thus, in effect, a two-launch version of OTL's Apollo LOR mode, with one American and one Anglo-French launch apiece. In effect it makes Selene Board rather than Grumman the contractor for the LM. And thus the failure of the USA to win by going it alone is masked by the implied magnanimity of the USA "choosing" to do it as a joint effort with its allies.

But no, Nixon isn't even proposing this. He's having NASA beg for a seat or two for a couple Americans on an all-European ride, in return for sharing information and infrastructure.

My, my, the mighty sure have fallen fast and hard in this TL! And the heck of it is the USA seems so very complacent or drunk that we don't recognize that we are flat on our faces!:eek::p

3) not so much a "wow!" as a :confused:--the Soviets may indeed choose to keep mum about most telemetry from Lunokhod 2 if they want to. But can't the Americans, and indeed other leading Western powers as well, simply monitor and record whatever signals the Soviet lander probe is putting out, and using expensive but capable data processing and deductive analysis, tease out the meaning of all its output themselves?
 
Neat timeline

I can't comment with expertise on the technical aspects, but this feels believable--looking forwards to more.

How are various wars butterflied? No Falkland Islands war, for sure, if nuclear deterrents are based there; Argentina would be stupid to consider it. (The garrison will make the Fireflies of Port Stanley look like minor firepower...)

Possibly more noise from Argentina, "Britain's keeping nuclear missiles on our island!" regardless of the realities of who owns the islands.
 
Um, wow!

1) N-1 is working, at least sort of. We might fear that the dang thing will work OK on test loads and unmanned probes, only to crash when the Soviets finally trust it for something really critical. But they are clearly ahead of OTL with any successful launches at all! To be sure, it is a downgraded model compared to what was tried and failed OTL--but it works, at least sometimes.

If Soyuz-LOK or some ATL version of it is ready, they can do a Lunar orbiting mission right now. If they can rely on two in a row launching correctly, a workable lander for one cosmonaut can also be placed into LLO, meaning that manned orbital mission becomes a Moon landing mission, if only a token one.

With three launches, they can land quite a good vehicle indeed.

The Americans can do the same with Apollo and a new moon landing vehicle, same trade-offs except the American lander with a two-launch version would be significantly more capable than the LK type thing the Soviets could do with just two launches. An American triple launch of three Saturn III's ought to enable quite a spectacular long and accomplished extended stay mission

But...
2) Rather than do this, the Americans are now trying to get in on Selene instead?

- Time will tell, but I think that may be putting a bit strongly. They would like to see it succeed and are willing to help out.


I remember that Kennedy did not commit the USA to a landing "before the decade is out," and now the decade is indeed out. But though the deadline was relaxed, it was implicit anyway that JFK intended the USA to be second to none, and that whenever it was timely for an American landing to take place that landing should be the first by any nation.


I could see the Yanks, at this desperate juncture, offering to combine Apollo with Selene. Make the Apollo the vehicle that astronauts launch and return to Earth in; put up a lot of money to get the PROM and its descent vehicle redesigned so it is launched unmanned, and lightened by replacing the return capsule/habitat, deleting it and expanding the habitation on the descent stage, reducing the PROM to a very light ascent stage to return the two man landing crew to a third astronaut in wait aboard an Apollo. Lighten the European craft enough and there is no need for a third vehicle to refuel the PROM/VDL derived vehicle. It can carry enough ascent fuel for returning the crew to an Apollo.

Thus, in effect, a two-launch version of OTL's Apollo LOR mode, with one American and one Anglo-French launch apiece. In effect it makes Selene Board rather than Grumman the contractor for the LM. And thus the failure of the USA to win by going it alone is masked by the implied magnanimity of the USA "choosing" to do it as a joint effort with its allies.

But no, Nixon isn't even proposing this. He's having NASA beg for a seat or two for a couple Americans on an all-European ride, in return for sharing information and infrastructure.

My, my, the mighty sure have fallen fast and hard in this TL! And the heck of it is the USA seems so very complacent or drunk that we don't recognize that we are flat on our faces!

-Again, I don’t see the US begging for anything. From the point of view of 1970-2, the Shuttle looks like a much better bet and they are running rings around everyone with the Orbital Labs, with a bigger station due in the mid 70s. The Moon can come later, they have bigger fish to fry. At this late stage, redesigning everything to fit in with Selene would virtually guarantee that the Soviet reach the Moon first. The US could put a crew in lunar orbit anytime they like (on a single Saturn III/Apollo), but Nixon isn’t interested.
What I have never emphasised in the story (although I do mention it a few times way back in the early days) is that the US has a much bigger nuclear power programme – Kennedy gave a speech about the “promise of nuclear power”. Obviously NASA was still well funded, but there are plenty more reactors about by now generating cheap (or so they think) power.

3) not so much a "wow!" as a --the Soviets may indeed choose to keep mum about most telemetry from Lunokhod 2 if they want to. But can't the Americans, and indeed other leading Western powers as well, simply monitor and record whatever signals the Soviet lander probe is putting out, and using expensive but capable data processing and deductive analysis, tease out the meaning of all its output themselves?
-Record yes, decipher – maybe. TV images etc.. quite possibly (although why bother, both NASA and Selene have plenty of pictures of the Moon) but any sort of instrument is going to have been calibrated by the spacecraft’s manufacturers. Simply picking up the signals won’t always show those details.
 
I can't comment with expertise on the technical aspects, but this feels believable--looking forwards to more.

How are various wars butterflied? No Falkland Islands war, for sure, if nuclear deterrents are based there; Argentina would be stupid to consider it. (The garrison will make the Fireflies of Port Stanley look like minor firepower...)

Possibly more noise from Argentina, "Britain's keeping nuclear missiles on our island!" regardless of the realities of who owns the islands.

Thank you. Glad you are enjoying it, still a good bit more to come.
I'm trying to steer clear of major upsets like wars. That's one nice thing about an AH space programme; in the early days, space research was quite isolated from "real life" (other than spysats, which are almost exactly as in reality). It took/takes years for the technology to be commercialised and/or declassified.
The UK still stayed out of Vietnam and I can't see how this story would significantly affect the Afghan/Middle East problems of the late 70s. The Malayan Emergency and the problems with Indonesia still happened, and were solved in much the same way. The pull-out East of Suez isn't exactly the same, as there is still the need to maintain a token presence around Australia and Christmas Island, but there isn't a fleet at Singapore or anything like that.

Actually there aren't any missiles on the Falklands, only Ascension. The Falklands wouldn't be a bad place, but the budgets didn't stretch that far.
That being said, with forces already on Ascension, come the early 80s the Falklands won't look quite as remote from Britain as they did in '82. The RN will probably be (slightly) better equipped too.
 
Direct Interception

Aurora 12

Commander Sebastiane Lehart and Navigator Arnold Hughes become the first Selene astronauts to fly in space twice when the “Curie” achieves orbit 7 minutes after blasting off from Rainbow Beach. Their PROM/VDL is injected into a low 180km orbit to allow the Silver Star core to loft a heavy payload.

Their ship is optimised to carry as much descent engine propellant as is possible, subject to the limited lifting capacity of the Silver Star launcher. To this end, there are no landing legs fitted to the VDL, the Hab is little more than a shell and the PROM carries only a minimal load of its own propellants. Their mission is to simulate the key phases of a lunar flight while in the relative safety of Earth orbit. They raise their orbit to 232x240km on Day 2, testing the performance of the SNECMA R-1065 landing engine. Two short burns are made (simulating a mid-course correction and lunar orbit insertion), using the engine at 30% and 75% power settings.

During a spacewalk out to the external cockpit on Day 3, the crew make three small corrections using the thrusters and the main engine’s “idle mode”, before running through the checklists for the VDL's landing systems, including the links to the new ICL SCC computer that is fitted to the PROM.

The main event of their mission is on Day 4; a complete dress rehearsal of a descent to the lunar surface. To help make it as realistic as possible, this will involve the VDL approaching a target satellite (launched earlier in the year on SERP-6) using its landing engine. In comparison to a normal orbital rendezvous this will be a very fast and inefficient manoeuvre, as the VDL will use "brute force" continuous thrust to change its orbital plane and axis, all the while decelerating along a dog-leg path towards the target satellite. The SERP-6 satellite is equipped with a radar reflector to allow the VDL's landing radar to lock on and track it, much as it would the surface of the Moon.

At T+64:51, Lehart fires the descent engine. A short burst at 100% power is rapidly throttled back to 78% by the automatic control system. On a real lunar landing, it will take about ten minutes to decelerate out of lunar orbit and approach to within a couple of miles of the surface. On this flight, the engine does not have the fuel to run for that long, so this part of the sequence is shortened to just under a minute.
When about 6km from SERP-6, the VDL reaches the dog-leg and is able to pitch over to allow the crew to see the target. The engine automatically throttles down, exactly as it would in the later stages of a lunar descent and within 30s, Lehart spots the bright strobe fitted to the satellite. With the help of a simplified version of the aiming device that is intended for use on lunar landing, he is able to enter two updates using his side control stick and bring the VDL’s trajectory closer to the target.
The engine burn ends after seven minutes, with the VDL in a stable orbit close to the target satellite. It drifts away over the next 15 minutes as the crew shut down the various landing systems, indicating that the rendezvous was not quite as precise as hoped. Nevertheless, there are cheers in mission control and on board the Curie when it is calculated that the VDL came within a distance of 590m and was within 2.1m/s of the velocity of the target at the time the engine was shut off. Although not perfect, achieving this level of accuracy on a lunar flight would be good enough.

The crew return to the PROM and separate from the VDL the following day. Over the next two days, a series of tests of the PROM's new navigation systems and computer are completed without any major problems. The last Aurora test flight splashes down safely near the Azores at T+145:23.

After a shaky start, the Aurora programme has completed the development of a reliable and capable spacecraft – the PROM. Flights of the prototype VDLs have given Selene engineers the data and experience they needed to complete the VDL-C. Aurora has taken Selene astronauts into space, where they have successfully tested equipment, practiced spacewalks and orbital manoeuvring. It has even allowed them to fly out away from the Earth and loop around the Moon.

The first of the awe-inspiring machines that will allow them to land there now sits on Rainbow Beach’s Launch Pad No.7.
 
One Hundred Million Horsepower

CLV-4

The most powerful machine yet built thunders into the sky from Rainbow Beach’s Launch Pad No.7 at 16:28 on the 6th June 1972.

The flight of Constellation Launch Vehicle No.4 has been delayed by a series of last-minute problems with the rocket, however the later liftoff means that many in France and Britain are awake to see it live on TV. Commentators' reactions vary from stunned silence to attempts to describe the waves of noise and the heat they feel as the vehicle climbs.

Eight seconds after liftoff, the rocket clears its launch tower, leaving an 80' wide curtain of flame from the three cores pounding back down to the base of the pad.
Climbing clear of the tower, the entire vehicle visibly rolls about its central axis to turn to the 70 degree azimuth programmed for this flight. Specially installed baffles inside each of the tanks help keep nearly 2,000 tons of propellant steady during the turn.
Fifteen seconds after liftoff, CLV-4 starts to gently pitch downrange under the control of the first stage’s inertial guidance unit, and thirty five seconds later, 1,850 tons of rocket breaks the sound barrier at 20,000'. The exhaust from all 21 engines is now expanding into the rapidly thinning air, making the vehicle seem to sit on a cone of blue-white fire, turning a brownish-yellow with traces of soot once unburned fuel encounters the tiny amounts of Oxygen in the air.

Eighty nine seconds into the flight, warning lights burst to life all over the control room. Telemetry shows that the port side PTA pump has failed. As controllers check their displays, the vehicle's sophisticated control system reacts automatically by shutting down the starboard pump to prevent a dangerous imbalance in fuel loads developing, while simultaneously switching to an alternative trajectory designed to help compensate for this type of failure.

Unaware of any fault, ground observers continue to enjoy the show, the BBC's Raymond Baxter commentating for British viewers.
"Pitched over now at about sixty degrees, a hundred seconds in, past Mach four.
The rocket plume is expanding now in the thin atmosphere at high altitude. The engines are more efficient up there … now approaching their maximum thrust … an output equivalent to One Hundred Million horsepower … Incredible sight … The two side cores will be falling away in a few seconds … should be now … no, they're still running … they … should have separated by now …… there they go!”

The core booster burns normally for a further 133s until it shuts down for the next staging event.

CLV launch.jpg
Kinetheodolite image of first stage core separation and ECPS ignition.​

Four seconds later, the central core falls away and the four rocket nozzles of the ECPS glow blue as the Hydrogen fuelled engine ignites and second stage flight begins.
Now, the French-built stage and its guidance system need to show what they can do. Unlike the simpler "time-attitude" reference used during first stage flight, the upper stage has a computer capable of iterative guidance – it has the ability to recalculate the flight path it needs to take in order to achieve the programmed orbit.
When the first stage started to deviate from its expected path at about 90s into the flight, the upper stage’s guidance system started to measure the error and compute the changes the second stage would need to make in order to achieve orbit. Now, it adjusts the pitch and burn time of the upper stage to correct for the difference.
The system works almost perfectly and mission control confirms that a 188x186km orbit is achieved with 67.7t of fuel remaining (pre-flight plans called for a 186km circular orbit and 69.6t). The ECPS and its dummy payload now complete 3 orbits before the next phase of the flight.
At T+4:47:15, the engine fires again. At the end of a 182s burn, the spent stage and its 31t dummy payload are on a course to pass about 5000km from the lunar surface. The payload separation system is tested at T+4:56 and the remaining fuel and gasses in the tanks are then vented to space. The inert stage and payload go on to fly by the Moon and remain in solar orbit to this day.

The flight of CLV-4 and the remarkable images of the launch feature in reports and on front pages all over the world. A slight case of sour grapes is seen in some US news, where early reports of the pump problems and a "slosh" that caused the second stage to loose fuel when in orbit are emphasised. Other media points out that NASA has been flying its own giant Saturn III rocket since 1967.

Years of work, planning, testing, improvement and re-testing have paid off on the first flight. It is a stunning success, according to an anonymous controller “better than most of us dared to hope”.

A few weeks after the launch, a draft of the CLV-4 launch analysis is circulated to Selene Project engineers and key contractors.
Overall, the flight was successful in its demonstration of the 3-core first stage. The performance of the ECPS upper stage and the accuracy of the guidance system were verified. The 31 ton boilerplate payload was injected onto a trajectory towards the Moon with 4.3 tons of propellant remaining in the ECPS (vs a pre-flight prediction of 5 tons). Most of this reduction is due to the failure of the first stage propellant transfer system, partly compensated for by the ECPS R-1450 engine delivering a higher efficiency than was expected.

Two significant faults are noted:

The port Propellant Transfer Assembly (PTA) pump failed at 89s. Telemetry shows the PTA pod overheated, probably leading to the failure of joints in the HTP supply lines inside. Film of the flight shows that at high altitude, both pods were bathed in burning gasses from the engines, which would have penetrated the simple aerodynamic cover and damaged components inside. This plume induced flow separation (the blow forward of hot gas), was predicted by early wind tunnel tests of the rocket, but the experiments were not fully repeated when the PTA pods were added two years later. Even then, it seems that the early results underestimated the effect.

The loss of the pump meant that fuel ceased to be transferred from the port core to the centre. The stage’s on board controller detected the fault and reacted within 1.6s by shutting down the starboard pump in order to prevent the two outer cores from being drained at different rates. The controller also acted as designed by modifying the pitch programme and delaying the jettison of the outboard cores. Fuel in the starboard core reached the cut-off limit at 136s instead of the planned 120s. Both outer cores were then shut down together. Approximately 14t of excess propellant remained in the port core at shutdown.
Outboard core jettison and the subsequent ascent to orbit were normal, except for the guidance changes. The ECPS control system successfully demonstrated the ability to correct for errors in the flight path. The ability to update the stage's timing triggers and target parameters from the ground was demonstrated later while in Earth orbit.

The second fault occurred shortly after the ECPS achieved orbit. In zero gravity, liquid Oxygen did not stay settled in one place at the bottom of the tank as designers had intended, but instead drifted around inside. Over a ton of liquid was unintentionally dumped overboard through a pressure-relief valve; it should only have vented gas.
With only a lightweight test payload this did not affect the success of the flight, however on a real lunar mission the loss of this much propellant could potentially jeopardise the rocket’s ability to complete the flight.

Neither issue is regarded as particularly difficult to solve and the flight in considered to be a spectacular success. The giant Constellation rocket has validated its basic design on the first attempt.

CLV launch.jpg
 
It is looking good.

Has there already been a test of the PROM return capsule entering the atmosphere at a speed comparable to returning from the Moon?

Well yes, come to think of it--the circumlunar mission would be quite close enough, if not identical, and that has been accomplished already. This is a major reason why, although pulling into Lunar orbit, staying there a while, and then blasting back to Earth is a better test, a mere Lunar flyby is a worthwhile mission in and of itself. I forget if the earlier Aurora mission was a flyby or proper Lunar orbital; probably the former. But anyway that was good enough to demonstrate the PROM return capsule's adequacy. And so I presume if I read back I'll find a prior unmanned mission that tested it.

So I suppose a non-landing Lunar orbital mission is in the cards before the landing, which will require final development of the unmanned fuel/cargo lander and a successful landing of it first. But with concerns about the number of Constellation launchers that will be available, I suppose they might also consider skipping an orbital mission and going straight for landing. They'll probably still have to "waste" one unmanned lander that they won't have a PROM/VDL ready to follow through with immediately--by the time they do, even if the cargo lander exceeds all expectations, the fuel supply will have boiled away, so that's just a big test probe. But if the first lander works well, I guess the manned landing two-launch mission is next up after that.

Or they might "waste" one more Constellation to launch a manned PROM/modified VDL mission to accompany the test lander. They might even reverse the normal sequence, to send the manned ship into LLO timed to watch the robot lander's final descent and landing, to gather data in case something goes wrong, and then to evaluate how good a job they did picking a landing site and how precisely the robot went where it was supposed to, by close orbital observation, before proceeding back to Earth. In lieu of much of the mass needed for a landing the VDL can carry extensive telescopic and other observational equipment, and in addition to scoping out the dummy landing site, also conduct close observations of the Moon in general, with equipment normal Selene missions won't be able to carry.

The orbital rendezvous mission of "Curie" is useful and confidence-building but there is no good way to realistically simulate a Moon landing save going ahead and trying it. Doing it with the robot first is the standard mission profile anyway, so a close observation of an automated landing is the closest thing I can think of to an all-up simulation of a PROM/VDL manned landing.

The only thing to do next after that is send another robot, this one to be used up as a functional supply dump, and follow it closely with a real manned lander, Luna or bust!

One might cut corners by making that first automated landing one of a normally equipped cargo lander, and making the orbital observer PROM/VDL capable of landing (meaning not having all that observational enhancements) and prepared to go ahead and land if the cargo craft is successful. That's risky, obviously, but all Selene landings are, and it cuts to the chase.

Vice versa, if they do cautiously do the thing with a test lander and a non-landing observational manned orbiter mission, the test lander would not be suitable for refueling a future landing, since its stored fuels would boil off and supplies generally suffer from sitting on the Moon for months. But perhaps, in analogy with a special orbiter, the first test lander can be equipped with durable items in lieu of ascent fuel, and the first real landing can be at the same site. A second robot, configured for fuel and standard supplies only, comes down closely guided by the first one as a reference and very close observations of the vicinty, leaving a third site for the manned vehicle, and so the first mission has options not planned for the later ones, such as extra equipment (Lunokhod style rovers perhaps, as backstops to the routine ones needed to haul the fuel over to the PROM, and having served in advance to scout out the landing sites and pick the best one, maybe shoving some small boulders out of the way first).
----
Above was written yesterday...

Yay for Constellation working!

Rule Britannia, Vive La France!
 
It is looking good.

Has there already been a test of the PROM return capsule entering the atmosphere at a speed comparable to returning from the Moon?

Well yes, come to think of it--the circumlunar mission would be quite close enough, if not identical, and that has been accomplished already. This is a major reason why, although pulling into Lunar orbit, staying there a while, and then blasting back to Earth is a better test, a mere Lunar flyby is a worthwhile mission in and of itself. I forget if the earlier Aurora mission was a flyby or proper Lunar orbital; probably the former. But anyway that was good enough to demonstrate the PROM return capsule's adequacy. And so I presume if I read back I'll find a prior unmanned mission that tested it.

So I suppose a non-landing Lunar orbital mission is in the cards before the landing, which will require final development of the unmanned fuel/cargo lander and a successful landing of it first. But with concerns about the number of Constellation launchers that will be available, I suppose they might also consider skipping an orbital mission and going straight for landing. They'll probably still have to "waste" one unmanned lander that they won't have a PROM/VDL ready to follow through with immediately--by the time they do, even if the cargo lander exceeds all expectations, the fuel supply will have boiled away, so that's just a big test probe. But if the first lander works well, I guess the manned landing two-launch mission is next up after that.

- There are currently plans for two orbital missions, Selene 2 and 3. Selene 2 is the first manned flight of the “fully developed” PROM/VDL-C and is also the first manned Constellation, so planners are allowing for the fact that it may not be perfect. Selene 3 is intended as a lunar orbit mission to test all the pre-landing procedures and take lots of high quality film and images of the possible landing sites.
There could be two unmanned Cargo test landings. The first, which could happen on the next Constellation flight CLV-5 is very much part of the extended mission, not the primary one. If it works, that's a bonus.
The second attempt, Selene 4, is the first VDL-Cargo that is really intended to go all the way to the surface.
Just to be confusing (it started this way, and its the sort of thing they wouldn't change), the landing missions won't use separate numbers, so Selene 5 will have a "5A" mission number for its cargo lander.

Or they might "waste" one more Constellation to launch a manned PROM/modified VDL mission to accompany the test lander. They might even reverse the normal sequence, to send the manned ship into LLO timed to watch the robot lander's final descent and landing, to gather data in case something goes wrong, and then to evaluate how good a job they did picking a landing site and how precisely the robot went where it was supposed to, by close orbital observation, before proceeding back to Earth. In lieu of much of the mass needed for a landing the VDL can carry extensive telescopic and other observational equipment, and in addition to scoping out the dummy landing site, also conduct close observations of the Moon in general, with equipment normal Selene missions won't be able to carry.
- Yes, that’s more the plan, except they don’t plan to launch simultaneous manned & unmanned flights – it gives them more opportunities to sort out any bugs with the CLV and/or VDL. Even for the manned landings, the launches will be a month apart. The VDL-Cargo is designed to sit on the surface for 60 days before its fuel boils away to the point of it being useless.

The orbital rendezvous mission of "Curie" is useful and confidence-building but there is no good way to realistically simulate a Moon landing save going ahead and trying it. Doing it with the robot first is the standard mission profile anyway, so a close observation of an automated landing is the closest thing I can think of to an all-up simulation of a PROM/VDL manned landing.
-Absolutely, for crew training and mission development Earth-based simulations are far better than anything that can be done in orbit, but it’s necessary to test some real hardware in space.

The only thing to do next after that is send another robot, this one to be used up as a functional supply dump, and follow it closely with a real manned lander, Luna or bust!

One might cut corners by making that first automated landing one of a normally equipped cargo lander, and making the orbital observer PROM/VDL capable of landing (meaning not having all that observational enhancements) and prepared to go ahead and land if the cargo craft is successful. That's risky, obviously, but all Selene landings are, and it cuts to the chase.

Vice versa, if they do cautiously do the thing with a test lander and a non-landing observational manned orbiter mission, the test lander would not be suitable for refueling a future landing, since its stored fuels would boil off and supplies generally suffer from sitting on the Moon for months. But perhaps, in analogy with a special orbiter, the first test lander can be equipped with durable items in lieu of ascent fuel, and the first real landing can be at the same site. A second robot, configured for fuel and standard supplies only, comes down closely guided by the first one as a reference and very close observations of the vicinty, leaving a third site for the manned vehicle, and so the first mission has options not planned for the later ones, such as extra equipment (Lunokhod style rovers perhaps, as backstops to the routine ones needed to haul the fuel over to the PROM, and having served in advance to scout out the landing sites and pick the best one, maybe shoving some small boulders out of the way first).

-Very neat, sort of jumping ahead to the “three launch” missions that were proposed in the early days. Their plans are starting to firm up – more to follow there in the next few instalments.
----
Above was written yesterday...
Yay for Constellation working!
Rule Britannia, Vive La France!
 
The Big Freeze

Jul-72
OFT-3 Operational Flight Test of Black Anvil from Christmas Island.

The United Kingdom Aerospace Agency, the first British government organisation with a direct mandate to conduct space research, is formed on the 12th July.
Despite having had a space programme for over a decade, the UK has never formed an agency like NASA or the French SNES. Space research has been conducted and funded on an inter-departmental basis, usually driven by the MoD and the DTI (or their predecessors). UKAA (usually pronounced "you-car") takes over responsibility for the co-ordination of all British civil space activities, including the Selene Project.

The UKAA immediately seek discussions regarding British membership of the European Space Research Organisation. The agency also scores an early success, as it is able to take credit for negotiations carried out by the DTI over the past months. An agreement is signed with the Italian Space Agency to supply six surplus Blue Streak rockets for use with a series of solid fuelled upper stages that the Italians are developing in order to create a small launch vehicle. The first three development launches are to be made from existing facilities at Rainbow Beach. Subsequent launches are expected to be from the Italian San Marco platform off the Kenyan coast. HSD will act as primary contractor to supply and integrate the Blue Streak stages. There are high hopes that this contract will help Britain become involved in future European launch vehicle projects.

Selene managers agree to the idea of producing draft mission plans for Selene 2 and 3 landing and surface events, even though neither of these flights will be attempting a landing. The plans will be made for the purpose of training mission planners and flight controllers, allowing them to practice and hopefully ironing out some of the details before they “do it for real” with Selene 5.

Astro-1, the first joint European research satellite, is launched on a Diamant rocket from French Guiana. The spacecraft carries German and Dutch built experiments in radio communications and plasma physics.

Aug-72
British and US intelligence inform their respective governments that another Soviet N-1 rocket failed during a flight test in July. There had been some concern that the Soviets might be able to put a crew in to lunar orbit later in the year, in advance of Western efforts, as a prelude to a lunar landing in 1973.
The failure shows that they have not solved all of the problems with the N-1 and suggests there will be a delay of at least three months while a further test is conducted.


Sep-72
Requests to order additional components to support Selene 8 are met with an order to hold.
For the time being, the French refuse to provide authorisation for the construction of additional ECPS and VDL vehicles, while in the UK the reason given is that an increase in civil launches and the requirements of the Black Anvil build up are to take priority over the construction of cores for additional Constellation rockets.

Sep-72 Overseas
The USA and USSR pledge to conduct a joint manned spaceflight later in the decade. Plans are still in the early stages and neither side is ready to commit to a date for the flight.


Sep-72
CLV-5 is erected on Pad 8 at Rainbow Beach. This second Constellation Launch Vehicle will attempt to boost a live VDL-Cargo ship towards the Moon. Originally scheduled for October, the launch is more likely to be conducted in November following delays with the VDL.

Oct-72 Overseas
Pan Am makes a record-breaking round the world flight with its first Boeing 7227 supersonic airliner. The aircraft completes the westbound journey in 32 hours 18 minutes, staying in daylight for the entire trip. The airline is using this first aircraft for a series of publicity tours and route proving flights until the second aircraft is delivered and scheduled services can begin.

Oct-72
Discussions at an ESRO meeting include the British request for membership.
While several French delegates privately admit that including Britain would solve a lot of problems in relation to launchers and facilities, in Council they are adamant that the purpose of ESRO is to support a genuinely pan-European space industry, with work, responsibility and technical competence shared between member nations. ESRO must not merely “buy vehicles from Britain”. Other delegates point out that bringing the UK in would help to secure the future of Symphonie (by far the largest pan-European satellite programme). British experience in building and launching large, stabilised communication satellites would be of considerable value.

It is arguments such as this that are of greatest concern to the French. They are well aware that the UK has the technical ability to build and launch something equivalent to Symphonie without any help from anyone. Despite nearly a decade of Selene “co-operative development”, France still does not have an equivalent capability – she builds components which rely on British systems and facilities. While Selene has undoubtedly been of great benefit to the nation’s aerospace industries, it will never deliver a truly independent French space programme. In the past, European nations have been obliged to buy communication satellite time from the US (or rather the US-dominated Intelsat organisation). Simply switching this to reliance on the UK is not regarded as an improvement.

The majority of the rest of the ESRO Council, led by Germany and Italy, are in favour of admitting Britain. Italy already has a bilateral agreement with the UK to develop a small launch vehicle, while German delegates indicate that they might seek to join this partnership, rather than participate in the building of a launcher for Symphonie from scratch. Feeling that French national pride is at risk of being insulted, French delegates point out that France is an equal partner in the Selene Project and that she has developed high-performance Hydrogen fuelled stages and solid fuelled rockets, which are the technical equal of anything developed in the UK.

Nonetheless, Britain could supply ESRO with a complete launch system immediately (and probably on quite favourable terms), whereas it would take European industry 4-5 years to deliver one. The mention of Selene slows the pace of discussion to a crawl as the delegates become more and more defensive. There is no desire amongst the other ESRO members to be drawn into funding the Selene Project.

The Selene Board approves the recommendation of the Project's Operations Director that the manned Selene 2 flight should be attempted in December, providing that the unmanned CLV-5 flies successfully before then.

British and French Ministerial-level discussions include the future of the Selene Project.
The French accept that a landing attempt and at least one follow on mission should be conducted. They do not want to carry out an extended series of flights, as their government does not wish to support both an expanded European space programme and Selene. British interest in the Project is still strong, but there are the first hints that it might be past its peak. With the Black Anvil programme secure and civil space activities now well established, exploitation of the commercial satellite market and closer ties with European industries are now more important than the symbolism of Selene. Negotiations reach no conclusion, but there are indications of common ground on communications satellites and perhaps on booster technology.

After years of negotiation and several rejections, Prime Minister Edward Heath is able to announce that the UK will join the EEC.
Negotiations have succeeded thanks to British flexibility surrounding the EEC budget and the status of the Commonwealth, along with changes in the French position since President De Gaulle left office. Britain will formally join on the 1st January 1973.


Nov-72
CLV-5
Constellation and VDL-Cargo test flight.
This time, first stage performance is as expected and the newly insulated PTA pods survive the ascent, transferring fuel to the core for the first two minutes. The core carries on and shuts down at the expected time before second stage flight begins.
165 seconds after the ECPS upper stage ignites, the vehicle seems to stop steering itself. Telemetry shows that the stage is steady and the engine is obviously still firing. However, the thrust vector control valve isn’t moving and hydraulic pressure is higher than normal. The engine continues to burn for a further 53s and the stage achieves a 183x173km orbit. The stage was stable at the time of the failure and the natural motion of the vehicle, coupled with the still functioning roll control engines, allowed it to achieve an orbit surprisingly close to that which was intended (180km circular).

The stage's small RCS rockets keep it stable in orbit, while ground controllers debate how to proceed, but at T+3:18, the VDL-Cargo is commanded to separate from the ECPS stage. It will complete a backup test mission in Earth orbit. It is considered too risky to allow the ECPS to restart its engine. A series of diagnostic tests are run before the stage's batteries are depleted and vent valves are opened to dump over 60 tons of propellant to space, eliminating the risk of the stage exploding in orbit. Last contact with the ECPS is at T+14:48 and the dead stage re-enters the atmosphere the next day.

The VDL-Cargo completes a very successful 6 day backup mission. After two short engine burns to move away from the ECPS stage and its decaying orbit, the VDL coasts around the Earth for three days, the same time as it will take to fly to the Moon. This is the first fully fuelled VDL to fly and controllers are relieved to see that fuel and oxidiser boiloff are well within limits.
The new Hydrogen fuelled generator engines function perfectly, working to "dispose" of boiled off Hydrogen gas and in doing so, generating all the electrical power needed by the vehicle. At T+74:18, the main engine is fired for 7 1/2 minutes to simulate a lunar orbit insertion. Nineteen hours later it is fired again to test the variable throttle levels that will be needed for a lunar landing. On board TV cameras are activated (on a landing mission these will relay pictures of the lunar surface both before and after touchdown).
At T+115:14, the main engine is commanded to fire until it runs out of fuel, allowing controllers to verify the performance of propellant gauges and check that the tanks drain smoothly and predictably, by "seeing how long it lasts". At 40% throttle, the engine burns for 9.7s longer than the ground based predictions suggested.
The VDL is actively controlled until 139 hours after launch, when most systems are switched off (again, as they would be on the lunar surface). A solar powered telemetry system allows the gradual boil off of the Methane-Oxygen payload to be monitored until 18th February 1973, when the vehicle’s low orbit decays and it burns up in Earth's atmosphere.


The US government declines to participate in any additional Selene flights. Agreements to fly scientific payloads on early missions in return for training and operational support will be honoured. Instead, NASA offers to cooperate with the various European space agencies by allowing them to fly payloads, instruments and astronauts on the Space Shuttle.
There is little support in any part of the US government for subsidising a foreign space program - even if it would see an American flag raised on the lunar surface. The recent thaw in relations with the Soviets and plans for a joint mission give little reason to seek to re-run the "Space Race". In addition, NASA's estimates for the Space Shuttle have risen since the program was approved and there are no funds to spare to support any additional lunar activities.

Nov-72 Overseas
The USSR launches its first space station "Salyut". The crew of Soyuz 9 reach the station two days later and spend 22 days on board. Several photos are released of the crew on board their station, although there is no other publicity. Western suspicions are that the flight was not entirely successful.


Nov-72
The upper stage and payload of the CLV-6 launch vehicle are de-stacked from Pad 7.
The systems that failed on the recent CLV-5 launch are located in the heart of the R-1450 engine and it is impossible to access them while the stage is stacked on the pad. The problem is still being diagnosed, however it is clear that inspections of engine valves, hydraulic and control systems will be needed before CLV-6 flies.

At a meeting of the Selene Board, British and Australian delegates propose that three lunar landing attempts be flown up to the middle of 1975. Hardware to support these flights is already either completed or under construction, so this scheme would require a minimum of new orders. The final flight is proposed as a 3 man, 3 launch mission to conduct a two-week long survey of a site "selected for scientific interest" from lunar orbit photographs taken on earlier flights.
In private discussions after the meeting, French officials hint that they might be willing to support British membership of ESRO and "significant" British participation in a new European Launch Vehicle project in return for an agreement to wind down the Selene Project. The French wish to commence full scale development of this launcher as soon as possible, but the resources now being used by Selene will be needed to support any new programme.


OFT-4
Operational Test of Black Anvil from Ascension Island. Now known to have been a very long range flight to target points near Christmas Island.


Dec-72
Australia elects its first Labor government, led by Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.

Dec-72 Overseas
The age of supersonic passenger travel begins with the first commercial flight of a Pan Am Super Clipper (as they call their Boeing 7227s) between New York and Los Angeles.
The 3,746 mile flight takes 3 hours and 8 minutes, reaching a top speed of Mach 2.21. It avoids annoying Americans with sonic booms by flying south of Florida then crossing over an agreed "supersonic corridor" in northern Mexico.


Dec-72
Selene managers produce a set of revised launch proposals for 1973 and 74.
Mar 73 - Selene 2 - Manned lunar orbit mission
Jun 73 - Selene 4 - Unmanned VDL-Cargo test, including an attempt to land.
Aug 73 - Selene 3 - Manned lunar orbit and landing procedure checkout flight
Oct 73 - Selene 5a - VDL-Cargo to lunar surface
Nov 73 - Selene 5 - Manned landing
Mar 74 - Selene 6a - VDL-Cargo to lunar surface
Apr 74 - Selene 6 - Manned landing
Nov 74 - Selene 7a - VDL-Cargo to lunar surface
Dec 74 - Selene 7 - Manned landing

The estimates assume that the ECPS stage problems are diagnosed and a fix is implemented by the end of January. Initial analysis of telemetry and subsequent testing suggests that the hydraulic controls of the engine may have become frozen due to a Hydrogen leak near the fuel intake.

A consortium of French firms publicise their outline design for what they call a “European Launch Vehicle”. Two solid fuelled rockets would be used to help boost a Hydrogen fuelled core off the ground; this core would be equipped with an engine derived from the R-1450 as used on Constellation’s ECPS. Two different upper stages are proposed; a pan-European storable propellant version for science missions and a French-built LH2 fuelled version, which would be capable of launching the 1.8t Symphonie satellites to a geostationary transfer orbit.

Engineers from BAC and Aerospatiale are able to use data from the CLV-4 and 5 flights to confirm that the Constellation Launch Vehicle will be able to inject a 34t payload onto a trans-lunar trajectory, even allowing for 3-sigma underperformance conditions. In more practical terms, for example, if an engine is lost on the central core booster, or if the ECPS engine underperforms by 1%, the launcher should still have a 2-2.5t propellant margin.
The current mass of the manned VDL/PROM spacecraft is 32.9t, excluding surface science payload.
The unmanned VDL-Cargo will have the same margins available even at a mass of 34.15t, the slightly higher number made possible by a shortened Earth orbit phase and the lack of a heavy launch escape system on an unmanned flight.
 
Push button “A” to land on the Moon

Pilots or Passengers?​

In October 1972, Selene astronauts John Roberts and Xavier Tigges complete the first fully integrated simulation of VDL-C landing procedures. Tests in both ground based mock-ups and various aircraft-based trainers have been going on for some years, but these new simulations are the first to be linked live to mission control. After years of development and changes, the hardware in their simulators is now identical to that which will actually fly to the Moon.

In the early days of the Project, there were two opposing opinions on the methods needed to control the VDL:

The “pilot's method” (so nicknamed as it was advocated most forcefully by the test pilot crews) would have the Commander in complete control, much as a helicopter pilot would be. Manual controls would be linked either directly or proportionally to thrusters, engine throttles etc., meaning that the pilot would actually fly the vehicle. He would be free to act as he chooses while being guided by his instruments and by the Navigator, whose job would be to interpret the output of the computerised guidance system and provide the relevant data to the Commander.

The “automatic method” would see the crew function as flight co-ordinators (or as the pilots called it “passengers”). In this mode, the primary job of the Commander would be to setup the computer’s systems and to act as a backup in case the automatic systems failed. The Navigator's duties would include those of a flight engineer; to monitor the systems and advise the pilot of any technical issue that might affect the landing. The computer would fly the VDL, either completely automatically or towards a target set by the pilot.

The engineers who advocated the “automatic method” had a distinct advantage in the debate. The VDL-Cargo had to be able to operate unmanned, so some sort of autopilot would have to be fitted anyway, irrespective of the pilot’s opinion. Additionally, all rocket launches from Earth (even manned ones) had been automatically controlled, so designers proceeded on the basis that fully automatic control of the lunar descent - effectively a launch in reverse - would be the norm.
Tests done in early simulators and on the first “flying bedstead” lander development vehicle in 1966 soon brought the debate to a close. These experiments showed that a human pilot would not be able to manually fly a vehicle as unstable as the VDL without excessive fuel use (or in some cases, at all). A control interpreter and stability augmentation system (what we now call fly-by-wire) would be essential just to keep the machine upright and stable.

Debate moved on towards the accuracy and reliability of the landing system. VDL design engineers advocated a completely automatic solution, which would have had the VDL guided down to the surface by a combination of inertial systems, Earth based command and a radio navigation beacon fixed to the VDL-Cargo, which would already be sitting on the surface.

This time, the pilots had their way. Ultimately, it was their lives on the line and even the most optimistic control engineer could not guarantee the reliability of a fully automatic system. The nature of the Lunar Surface Refuelling mission meant that there would be a “point of no return”, which would be passed about 400 seconds into the descent. Before this time, the VDL could (at least in theory) boost itself back into lunar orbit, where a small quantity of fuel carried on board the PROM could then send the crew safely back to Earth. After the point of no return (officially called the “Landing Decision Gate” or LDG), the VDL would not have enough fuel on board to go back into orbit, and the crew must therefore be able to complete the landing. The astronauts' first question to the control engineers was unanswerable: "What if the automatic guidance fails after LDG?"
A manual backup had to be fitted.

Throughout 1968 and ‘69, as hardware designs started to crystallise, both pilots and engineers gained a far better understanding of the operational requirements and human factors involved in making a landing. Experiments and simulations showed that computer-based control would produce more consistent and therefore more efficient landings than a pilot would.
However, images taken by both NASA and Selene robotic missions confirmed that there was another problem. Even at small scale, the lunar surface wasn't just a “dusty desert”, it was strewn with boulders and small craters which a large, heavy lander would have to avoid. Pilot intervention would therefore be essential in the final phase of the landing to ensure that the manned VDL touched down close to the VDL-Cargo and in a safe place (i.e. not in a crater or over a large rock).
A semi-automatic system to allow the VDL-Cargo to touch down safely would also be needed.

The solution was certainly not simple, but satisfied all of the concerned parties and had the merit of working for both VDL and VDL-Cargo spacecraft.

The VDL would be the first fully fly-by-wire vehicle to be designed as such. After several changes as to exactly which part did what and who would be responsible for developing it, the control system configuration was frozen in the autumn of 1970. A guidance system on board the VDL itself would be supervised by the PROM's sophisticated computer, the SCC. Together, these systems could fly the VDL both in orbit and during the landing without any direct intervention from the crew. The crew's main job would be to set up the machines to complete the manoeuvers and then monitor them, with help from the ground.
The Commander’s role would be more like the captain of a ship than the pilot of an aircraft; he would issue commands, rather than directly fly the craft himself.
This method of control held for all flight modes other than the final 2-3 minutes of landing. During this time, the VDL would still be flown by the computer, but the system would give the Commander the ability to select a new target landing point at any time.

The VDL's open cockpit included a full set of flight instruments as found on any aircraft; attitude reference, altimeters, rate gauges etc…, and several that were not.
Foremost amongst these was the "Landing Point Indicator" (or LPI), a computer-driven sighting device that would always point directly at the targeted landing site, irrespective of the motions of the VDL. The sight itself was simple; it resembled a basic iron gunsight. When viewed through the centre of a ring located in front of the pilot’s control position, a marker on the end of a rod showed where the VDL would land. The sophisticated part was the control system that moved the rod. The computer would take the ship’s position and the co-ordinates of the selected landing site, allow for pitch, yaw, roll and several sight calibration factors before driving servo motors to move the sighting rod, placing the front marker in line with the selected landing site. If the Commander selected a new landing site, the LPI would move in response. As the VDL descended, or if it pitched or yawed during its descent, the sight would move to hold the front marked over the selected touchdown point.
For contingency purposes, the Navigator had an identical sight that was driven by the same computer program.

The Commander would be focussed outside the cockpit, looking at the surface to identify the landing site, monitoring the LPI and selecting a safe touchdown point. Normally, the computer would then do the rest; its software routines would guide the VDL to a point about 100' above the selected site, then let it descend gently to the surface.
The Navigator would be focussed inside the cockpit, reading out information to the Commander and monitoring the performance of the various primary and backup systems. Components of the PROM and VDL would be used together, but they could also back each other up. If the VDL’s inertial navigation unit failed, the one on the PROM could be used instead. Power systems would be linked during the descent and in emergency either the PROM or VDL (or a combination of both) could support the entire stack’s power needs.

In addition to all the computer-aided control provide by the SCC, two other modes were available, each of which used separate systems mounted solely on the VDL.
The most important was "Pilotmode 1" (the name of a software routine that triggered it), also nicknamed "Hold Mode". This would cause the VDL to hold a stable attitude and descent rate - so if it was pitched back at 20 degrees and descending at 15m/s, it would go on doing that until the pilot ordered an attitude change with his stick or varied the rate of descent using a control switch. Although nominally a backup mode, it was expected that the pilots might choose to use it during the last minute or so of flight; it could offer greater flexibility than the computer when flying “low and slow”.

Last was "Pilotmode 0" - which existed in name only as it was not a computer program at all.
This cut off all electronic control and gave the Commander direct electrical connections to the RCS thrusters and descent engine throttle. It was only put in as a "better than nothing" option. Few expected a crew to survive any landing attempted using this mode, other than maybe from a very low altitude (although it was possible - both Guy Larosse and Jock Waters demonstrated it in simulations).

On unmanned VDL-Cargo flights, a TV camera would be linked to the LPI. A high-rate data link would give a pilot back on Earth a fresh image about once per second. He would then be able to send commands back to the VDL’s computer as if he were on board. Normally, the remote control system should operate until touchdown, however if the radio link were lost, the VDL would still be safely under the control of the on board computer and would automatically land at the point last selected by the ground based pilot.
 
Haven't read this newest update yet, but I just wanted to restate how great this TL is, and how it is simultaneously great and frightening that the Franco-British lunar landing is seemingly just a year away. Eager to see if the soviets will beat them to it. I couldn't be more excited :D

Okay, now back to actually reading it all...
 
Haven't read this newest update yet, but I just wanted to restate how great this TL is, and how it is simultaneously great and frightening that the Franco-British lunar landing is seemingly just a year away. Eager to see if the soviets will beat them to it. I couldn't be more excited :D

Okay, now back to actually reading it all...

One way or another, 1973 will be an exciting year.

Here goes...
 
All three cores of the Constellation’s first stage are significantly different from "ordinary" Silver Stars. The central core is strengthened with thicker tank walls and a revised upper structure to accommodate the CSA. A set of secondary fuel lines allow it to accept the transfer of propellants from the two outer cores during flight.
These outer cores are fitted with short aerodynamic nose cones and each carries a 20'x6' fairing on their lower sides. This accommodates an HTP tank and turbopump which is used to transfer fuel from the outboard tanks to the central core, approximately balancing the fuel being used by the core's engines. This means that when the outer cores shut down and separate at about 50km altitude, the central core is still almost fully fuelled and able to carry its payload much higher and faster than if all three cores burned out together.

If the centre stage were 'almost fully fuelled', does it have enough thrust? I haven't looked at this stuff seriously, but I'd suspect that the centre stage needs to have burned off ~1/2 its fuel, no?
 
The Red Menace

Jan-73
The United Kingdom becomes a member of the European Economic Community on the 1st.

Jan-73 Overseas
The crew of Soyuz 10 fail to dock with the Salyut space station and return to Earth only 3 days after liftoff.

Jan-73
The CLV-5 fault investigation team report their findings.
A Hydrogen leak in the feed lines leading to the turbopump’s combustion chamber led to the hydraulic fluid in the SVV actuator freezing solid. Unlike a typical "gimballed" rocket motor, where the whole engine tilts to steer the vehicle, the R-1450 can differentially throttle its four combustion chambers to produce steering forces. The SVV (Soupape de Vecteur Vigueur or "thrust vector valve") allows small changes in the flow of propellant to each chamber for this purpose.
The leak is most likely to have occurred in one of three joints, all of which are to be reinforced. In addition, a different hydraulic fluid will be used on future flights, which should be slightly more tolerant of low temperatures.

The Canadian government announces it will be buying two direct broadcast satellites, to be built by the American firm Hughes. These are planned for launch in 1976 and 77 and will replace and improve on the existing Hermes-based satellites operated by Canada. The Canadian Space Agency will be extensively involved in the development of the satellites, components of which will be built in Canada. The news is not entirely bad for the UK, as British firm Marconi will build the transceivers used to relay TV signals.

Jan-73 Overseas
Pan Am are obliged to cease their New York - LA Super Clipper service after the Mexican government revokes permission for supersonic flight over its territory. As an interim measure, the airline continues to operate the route using the 7227s, however they will now fly at high subsonic speed over the US mainland.

Feb-73 Overseas
The Soviets announce the successful launch of Zond 11 on board their new N-1 heavy carrier rocket. TASS reports that the crew spent their first day in space docking their ship to a booster stage that had been launched on an earlier flight. The combined craft creates the largest orbital complex ever flown, at over 140 tons. The crew have since used the booster stage to launch their ship towards the Moon.

Feb-73
Pad technicians at Rainbow Beach begin to re-integrate the ECPS stage and payload onto the CLV-6 rocket. Additional checks on the three first stage cores will be made, as these have now stood out on the pad since October. There is concern that batteries and polymer seals on the stage may have deteriorated in the months that it has been standing outside.

Feb-73 Overseas
Zond 11 reaches the Moon and successfully uses its engine to slow down. Cosmonauts Shonin, Volkov and Bykovsky become the first men to orbit another world.
The following day, their LK-M lander is separated from the LOK mothership and flies, unmanned, down towards the lunar surface. TASS reports that the lander reached the surface, but that telemetry was lost shortly thereafter.
The LOK continues in orbit and the three crewmembers make observations of possible future landing sites. A brief TV transmission is shown "live" [actually delayed by 2 hours] to Soviet viewers and is later re-transmitted around the world. After completing 29 orbits of the Moon, the crew fire the LOK's engine to start the three day trip back to Earth.


Feb-73
Top-level discussions between the British and French governments lead to an agreement to postpone any announcements regarding the long term future of the Selene Project until Soviet intentions become clearer. Consequently, the French seek to postpone an agreement regarding British membership of ESRO, while resources continue to be devoted to Selene.

At a briefing for Ministers, Selene Project Director Jerome Aubinere is able to advise that a manned landing can be expected this year.
If all goes to plan, the first landing will be on the 5th November to the southeast of the crater Copernicus.
If the launch dates cannot be met, a backup site near the crater Sabine on the western side of the Sea of Tranquillity is suitable for a landing on the 2nd December, or the Copernicus site is available again on the 6th. These dates are fixed by the need to have a low sun illuminating the lunar surface at the time of the manned landing. Final decision on the landing site will be made 30 days before the VDL-Cargo launch.
Once landed, the VDL-Cargo is designed to stay on the lunar surface for up to 60 days before its power supply is exhausted and the propellant cargo it carries starts to boil away. This means that the subsequent manned mission has two launch opportunities, one in each of the two months following the VDL-Cargo launch.
A second lunar mission is planned for launch in April 1974.


Feb-73 Overseas
The crew of Zond 11 land back in the Soviet Union and are flown to Moscow after their initial debriefing. At a parade the next day they appear on the balcony of the Kremlin, alongside Chairman Brezhnev and the hero of Zond 8, Alexsei Leonov.


Mar-73
Representatives from BAC, HSD, Marconi and ICL meet with European space agencies and aerospace firms in West Germany as part of a British trade delegation.
There are already strong links between BAC and several German and Italian firms, through their joint work on the development of a new European strike aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems.
National space agencies are shown details of what British industry can offer, including the launch of Symphonie satellites on Silver Star rockets, systems for a pan-European weather monitoring satellite programme and the potential for joint development of an "intermediate launch vehicle" - which in the long term might be better suited to the 1-2 ton satellites being considered by European industry and governments.

Checks on the CLV-6 rocket and its spacecraft payload are completed. The countdown for the launch of Selene 2 begins on the 24th. In both government circles and within the Project itself, there is considerable frustration that the delays and faults with Constellation have allowed the Soviets to steal a march on Selene by orbiting the Moon first.

BOAC and Pan Am inaugurate the era of supersonic transatlantic travel by making simultaneous flights from London to New York (BOAC) and New York to London (Pan Am).
Both aircraft carry a host of VIPs and complete the trip in under 3 hours, less than half of the normal flight time on a subsonic jet. Commercial passenger services start the following day.
 
If the centre stage were 'almost fully fuelled', does it have enough thrust? I haven't looked at this stuff seriously, but I'd suspect that the centre stage needs to have burned off ~1/2 its fuel, no?

Plenty.
It's still essentially a Silver Star core so the 7 engines would give a T/W of greater than 1 at sea level, even with the heavy upper stage and payload.
At altitude, the engines would produce more thrust than at sea level.
Core T/W just after booster separation would be about 1.35, which is quite adequate given its speed and altitude at that point.

Back when I was writing this and modelling the launches, using more powerful 162tf engines on the core (vs the normal 150tf version) actually made overall performance slightly worse as the core burned out too quickly - meaning the vehicle had to climb faster to achieve the required altitude at shutdown, resulting in a less efficient trajectory.
I know that seems counter-intuitive, but launch and orbital mechanics can often feel that way.
 
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