Failure Must Be An Option

The Need for Flexible Mission Plans

Sep-69
OTR-23
Blue Streak test from Benbecula. Second test of a missile reworked under the fatigue life extension programme. Range: 1,598mi, impact 3,090' from target point.

The crew of Aurora 4 are welcomed back to Earth on the 15th in Paris, with a flyby and parade down the Champs Elysse, followed by an official reception hosted by President Pompidou. The following day in London, their reception is far less formal with an open-top bus parade through the city. Public events in both countries attract huge crowds as both British and French are keen to see (and hoping to meet) "our" first astronauts.

British and American intelligence services detect the failure of a large Soviet rocket at Baikonur. Highly classified US satellite images later show that the launch pad has been heavily damaged. The explosion was so large that it was also detected by another US satellite monitoring the Soviet Union for nuclear tests.

Sep-69 Overseas
Apollo 10/S docks with Spacelab for a two month mission, which is scheduled to include both Earth and Solar observations and several spacewalks. The mission has been altered to allow for the Lab's damaged solar panel and all goes well for the first 16 days. When the crew shut down the fuel cells on their Apollo spacecraft, greater power demands on the Spacelab lead to problems with cooling pumps which show up the next day. Careful control of the Lab minimises the problem until the fourth week of the mission, when one of the pumps jams, tripping protection circuits around the lab, including the other pumps. Several systems start to overheat before the system is switched back in. Two battery chargers appear to have been permanently damaged, leading to a further reduction in available power.
Alarmed by memories of the overheating problems with Apollo 3, three years earlier, and without enough power to operate the science platform continuously, ground controllers and crew agree to end their mission early.
They make a safe splashdown in the Atlantic after 27 days in orbit. NASA describes the mission as a success, noting that much has been learned about living and working aboard mankind’s first space station. A third mission to Spacelab will not now take place. Efforts will now shift to the improved Spacelab-2, scheduled for launch in mid 1970.


Oct-69
The first mission report from Aurora 4 is circulated within the Selene Project. The document highlights the many problems encountered on the mission (not all of which have been made public).
The Pilot's Report contains the crew's concerns:
- The crew were repeatedly overloaded with tasks by the ground. Controllers did not seem to grasp that tasks were taking longer than the time allotted in the flight plan.
- Multiple communications from ground controllers overlapped. On several occasions, two controllers attempted to talk simultaneously leading to confusion over important data.
- "Rest periods" on the flight plan were completely inadequate. Tiredness impaired the crew's ability to concentrate on several occasions, and in the Commander’s opinion this contributed to the errors made during rendezvous and re-entry procedures.
- The PROM computer data entry system should be equipped with an improved cancel/confirm device to help the crew avoid mistakes when entering commands.
The crew suggest that future flight plans should be divided into a series of sub tasks, some of which should be optional to allow the flexibility to cope with delays or other priorities. The pre launch flight plan of Aurora 4 become effectively irrelevant after 40 hours, with crew and ground struggling to coordinate tasks during the final day in orbit.
The flight characteristics of the PROM are described as good and the navigational and instrumentation tests were performed much as planned. Working in the zero gravity environment slowed down simple tasks such as reaching to flip a switch - particularly when the crew where not strapped in to their flight seats.
The rendezvous procedure resulted in heavy fuel use during the final approach to the inert VDL. The crew report that they felt approach speeds were too high and that not enough time was available to evaluate sensor and ground data, resulting in "over correction" - which then had to be corrected back, resulting in poor approach accuracy and high fuel use.

The Mission Controllers' report highlights further problems:
Support teams such as the Vehicle Systems and Medics report that their input into the conduct of the flight seems to have been ignored at several stages. Concerns raised by the Flight Surgeon as to the tiredness and hydration levels of the crew were not properly assessed when making changes to the flight plan.
The electrical and control teams expressed concern about continuing the mission without interruption when generator #2 failed, but again, these concerns do not seem to have figured highly in discussions with the Mission Controller once it was established that the crew was in no immediate danger.
All personnel felt they were under enormous pressure to continue with the flight plan and to complete as much of it as possible. While this pressure to deliver is unlikely to go away, future missions must be managed in a more flexible way. All parties report that time was limited during the flight. A more flexible flight plan might allow issues to be dealt with without compromising the primary mission.
The ground controllers report supports the crews' observation that too many controllers were communicating directly with the crew. At times, overlapping conversations were difficult to understand on the ground, even without the effects of radio static which the crew would have experienced.
Crew and controllers are asked to submit their suggestions for changes to the control procedures for future flights.

Tests on a duplicate PROM spacecraft on the ground show the likely cause of the generator problems on Aurora 4. Part of the confusion on the ground was due to the fact that telemetry showed that Generator No.2 had not actually failed - it was still running, using fuel and its control system was drawing power.

It seems likely that a spike in power consumption, probably related to the simultaneous startup of a cooling pump and the primary battery charger, momentarily tripped the overload circuit breaker on No.2's alternator. The problem seems to be that it did not quite fully trip, leading to several seconds of arcing in the breaker which would have blown an internal "overload link"; a traditional fuse which (unlike the breakers) cannot be reset. Consequently, the generator's engine was protected from any overload and continued to run normally, but with no means of actually delivering any electrical power.
The problem with the No.1 generator at 40:07 was a similar overload, however this time the circuit breaker tripped cleanly, meaning that the crew were able to reset it.
A series of tests on identical generator units are performed under simulated space conditions, with the conclusion that if the generators are overloaded, they will safely stall before overheating in any way that is likely to be dangerous.
The failure report concludes that the "overload link" fuses should be removed from future flights, on the basis that they are not necessary to protect the generators. It also recommends that the circuit breakers be modified for higher currents, but with a more sharply defined cut-off point.


FA-5 Black Anvil flight test from Rainbow Beach.
Short range, high altitude test flight to aid in the tracking of the RVGC and telemetry of RV deployment. The RVGC is tracked over 3,481mi until it re-enters over the Pacific. A number of payloads are known to have been deployed. Details remain Secret.

SERP-5
An improved “Diamant B” launches a fluid dynamics experiment from French Guyana. The spacecraft tests the flow of liquid Hydrogen through two new valve designs when under low gravity, as simulated by two small solid rockets. The mission is sub-orbital and lasts 21 minutes.

Oct-69 Overseas
The White House issues its initial response to the Space Task Group report delivered in July.
The need to tighten the Federal budget effectively precludes any increases in NASA allocations. The NASA budget for 1970 is $3.32Bn. Any new development could only be funded from 1971, and the President calls for a move to a more sustainable long term program to secure US technological leadership in space and reduce the cost of vital space based operations. Early plans for 1971 call for a budget of $3.1Bn for NASA.
The only project offered by the Agency that looks as if it might fit these parameters is the Space Shuttle, which has now completed its "Phase A" planning stage. If the shuttle could deliver cheaper access to space, a Space Laboratory would then appear to be of direct benefit to US science and industry.
The President and his advisors are not keen to continue a "publicity race" with the Soviets and they regard the lunar program as just that. It should not be lightly dismissed, but it might prove hard to defend when compared to projects such as the SST and national nuclear power programs. A new plan, potentially completed under this administration, would be much more palatable particularly if it controls costs and satisfies some of the vital strategic needs of the Air Force and NRO, not just the scientists at NASA.

Oct-69
Despite concerns over the development timescale, the Selene Board approves the decision to proceed with a redesign of the Constellation rocket to include reusable outer boosters. Britain's MoD has agreed that BAC can earmark 6 Black Anvil missiles for modification from 1970 and 71 production. 3 will be strengthened for use as the central "Core" of a Constellation launcher, the others will be fitted with additional systems for recovery and propellant transfer and used as "Wing" boosters.
A test programme will include single flights of both Core and Wing boosters. Two single "Cores" are planned to fly in 1971 to test the modifications. It is hoped to equip each of these flights with an ECPS to allow an early start to the testing of these large upper stages. Three solo tests of the "Wing" boosters will be made in 1971/2 to verify the performance of the recovery and propellant transfer systems. The plan calls for at least two of these to be recovered and flown again in 1972 as part of the first complete Constellation launch vehicle.
The development schedule is regarded as a highly ambitious one, although there is reasonable confidence in the ability to test fly the "Core" stages on time; modifications to these are limited to tank strengthening and the fitting of additional fuel ports.

Engineers testing the second prototype R-1065 engine encounter problems during a series of low throttle tests. At settings below 30%, the combustion becomes increasing unstable with dramatically increased vibration below 28-29% of the nominal setting. Efficiency also starts to drop markedly at this point. When a thrust setting 26% is tested, combustion roughness becomes so severe that further tests are suspended. SNECMA designers are very disappointed that this issue has resurfaced, as a new mixed gas-liquid Oxygen injector had been fitted to the prototype to solve precisely this problem.
The new injector had provided good results during earlier component tests and engineers are puzzled as to why it now appears to be no better than earlier designs.


Explorateur 5 / SSLV-10
Improved Explorateur spacecraft equipped with a new inertial guidance system, digital programmer and telemetry system. A new twin-lens TV camera will offer panoramic and close-up pictures of the surface and a robot arm will be used to test soil dynamics. Both cruise and lander stages have increased battery capacity and the lander carries more fuel to compensate for the additional weight.
The bad luck of the Explorateur programme continues, this time with a launch vehicle failure.
At 123s, the rocket starts to yaw away form the planned flight path. The vehicle is destroyed by the Range Safety Officer at 133s.


Nov-69
Investigations quickly establish the cause of the SSLV-10 failure. It is another fault in the radio-inertial guidance system, which caused the on board guidance to attempt to steer the rocket using data that rapidly became out of date. Both fortunately and unfortunately, this system was being used for the last time on this flight. It is due to be replaced by an all inertial guidance platform on SSLV-11 and subsequent vehicles.

Nov-69 Overseas
The Soviets announce their Zond 7 spacecraft has completed a loop around the Moon and returned to land in southern Russia. High quality film of the lunar farside is recovered and 38 photographs are subsequently published.

Several US firms submit proposals as part of NASA's "Phase B" space shuttle study process. All have been asked to produce a design for a reusable spacecraft capable of putting 15t of cargo into a low Earth orbit, or carrying a crew of up to ten and 5t of cargo to a Space Station.
North American Rockwell (builders of the Apollo spacecraft) propose a manned "flyback booster" with a smaller orbiter mounted on top. Both vehicles would use new, liquid Hydrogen fuelled rocket engines and the flyback booster would also be equipped with jets to allow it to ferry itself back to the launch site.
Grumman, who currently have the very uncertain contract to build NASA’s lunar lander, propose a much more conservative design, based on the Saturn III first stage (built by Boeing) and a new Hydrogen fuelled orbiter. Their proposal is unique in not being fully reusable (the orbiter has an external fuel tank) however, the firm's analysis shows that this “throwaway” tank actually saves money by making the orbiter smaller and easier to maintain.
Lockheed's proposal attracts a lot of attention, not always for the right reasons. They propose using two modified BAC Silver Star boosters to launch an orbiter mounted in between them. The boosters will be recovered (much as BAC is now planning), while the orbiter will use advanced Methane fuelled engines to continue to orbit. Their proposal is by far the cheapest as the boosters already exist, but is instantly seized on as being "too foreign" despite Lockheed's insistence that the entire system would be built in the US - with some parts co-developed or licenced from BAC and Rolls-Royce.
A joint Douglas/Martin design advocates a Shuttle as part of a complete launch system. Two boosters, each with an improved F-1 engine, would be fitted to each side of a throwaway tank, with a reusable orbiter mounted on the back. The boosters will also be used as part of several other launcher designs, capable of launching larger payloads without the use of the shuttle orbiter.


Nov-69
BAC report that the PROM could be modified to handle a crew of three with relatively few changes. The additional crewman would be accommodated in a new flight couch in the centre, set back from the two existing crew positions. Minor changes to the life support and thermal control systems are needed. Changes would add a 40-45kg to the mass of the CM, plus the mass of the crew. The report assumes that 3 man flights would be shorter than the 14 day baseline, so no increase in consumables is allowed for.

102 members of the United Nations, including the USSR, USA, UK and France, agree the “1969 Outer Space Treaty”. The signatories agree that they will not pursue any claim in respect of territory in space or on the surface of any celestial body for a period of 99 years. Spacecraft shall remain the property of the nation(s) that commissioned them. Manned and unmanned operations are permitted and encouraged solely for the purposes of peaceful exploration. All nations shall be obliged to assist any such peaceful space explorers who may land within their borders.

At a lively press conference in London, Selene managers announce that Explorateur 6 will be launched in December. Suggestions that the system is flawed are brushed aside and it is emphasised that the Project is about to fly "the largest and most sophisticated lander yet built" to the Ocean of Storms.

Nov-69 Overseas
Soyuz 6 and 7 dock in Earth orbit, spending 7 days linked together in what the Soviets describe as a "multiple compartment space station".


Dec-69
Pre flight tests on the SSLV-11 launcher at Rainbow Beach expose several faults in the links between the guidance system and the core. The rocket is moved back to its assembly facility while the problem is diagnosed.

Several much needed changes of procedure have been agreed for the Aurora 5 flight.
Aurora will adopt the US practice of using a "Capsule Communicator" whose duty is to act as the sole point of voice relay from the ground to the crew.
The "Mission Controller" and "Flight Controller" roles are revised to remove points of conflict. In future, the Flight Controller will concentrate on the mechanics of the flight, such as engineering issues and navigation. The Mission Controller will be in overall control of the ground crew and have the authority to change the flight plan and direct mission goals as may be appropriate on the longer flights that are being planned.
The original Aurora 5 mission plan has been changed considerably. On a 4 day flight, the crew will repeat much of the Aurora 4 mission at a slower pace. Revised planning and techniques for rendezvous will be tested on day 2. On day 3, a spacewalk is planned in place of the navigation tests conducted by Aurora 4, before further PROM systems tests and ground observation are made on day 4.
If all goes well, an optional one day extension to the flight will include a second spacewalk, subject to the agreement of the crew and Mission Controller. Rest periods are extended to 8 hours, with more time scheduled for meal breaks and contingencies during a nominal 24 hour operational day. Efforts will be made to synchronise the crew's sleep cycle with the flight plan during the days leading up to the flight.

Due to the limited number of launch operations personnel at Rainbow Beach, Selene managers are forced to choose between attempting to fly Aurora 5 or Explorateur 6 before Christmas. The decision is in favour of Aurora 5, as it is not known how long the SSLV-11 issues will take to fix. Aurora 5 on the other hand is almost ready to go, with all the hardware in place and the crew in the final stage of training. A launch attempt is scheduled for the 19th.

Hawker Siddeley confirms that it is proceeding with development of a second series of Hermes TV relay satellites, following agreement from the GPO that they intend to purchase two of these Mk.2 satellites for launch in 1973 and 74. The new version will incorporate lessons learned from the first series and improvements in technology and construction techniques. They will be slightly smaller and lighter, but will feature increased fuel capacity, improved generator designs and the ability to incorporate several different types of transmitter payload to cater to a wider range of customers.
The firm has received reservations from West Germany and Australia for one satellite each. Expressions of interest have come from Canada, Italy and a joint enquiry from Singapore and Malaysia, while discussions with Israel, South Africa, Japan and Iran regarding the sale of satellites are underway.
So far, there has been no success in cracking the potentially lucrative American market.


Dec-69 Overseas
NASA leaders make another attempt to persuade the White House to commit to sending American astronauts to the Moon. Although many in the agency are very supportive of the Space Shuttle, others argue against abandoning the steady progress that has been made towards a lunar landing. Instead of arguing for huge increases in funds to support a lander program, advocates of the lunar program now suggest lunar orbit flights, followed by a lunar orbital space station similar to the improved "Orbital Laboratory" now being built. Landers could then be deployed to the surface, equipped with robotic rovers or sample return systems.
A comprehensive report is put forward showing all the developments necessary to achieve this plan, which includes the requirement for more Saturn III launchers and improved Apollo spacecraft. US astronauts would be sent around the Moon in 1970, into lunar orbit in 1971, retrieve samples from lunar orbit in 1972 and conduct long duration scientific surveys in 1973. A manned landing could be accomplished by 1974 instead of the rover/sampler plan using a small "Lunar Excursion Module" deployed from the orbital station.
The report claims that this could be accomplished at the same budget levels needed to develop the Space Shuttle.

Dec-69
FA-6
Black Anvil flight test from Rainbow Beach.
Known to have been an "all up" test, including 8 active RVs. The impact points were around Christmas Island to permit precise tracking of the final stages of re-entry. A significant number of US assets are believed to have been deployed in support of the tracking of this flight.
 
Mission Accomplished

Aurora 5

A5 launch2.jpg
Aurora 5 reaches for the sky.​

Commander James "Jock" Waters and Navigator Alain Keifer blast off from Rainbow Beach at 07:13 GMT. Their spacecraft achieves a 185x207km orbit 405s after liftoff and successfully separates from its Silver Star launcher 9 minutes into the flight.
Several burns with the RCS take the PROM/VDL combination away from the booster stage and leave the crew in a 198x205km orbit while they check that their ship's systems are working as planned.

Once they remove their helmets, it soon becomes clear that the system to scrub their exhaled CO2 from the cabin is not working properly, as the concentration of the gas starts to rise during the first hour of the flight. Switching to the secondary scrubber does not improve the situation, but it is confirmed that the circulating fans are running normally. Only when fresh scrubbing canisters are opened and inserted into the unit at T+1:35 does the CO2 level start to reduce. It reaches normal levels within 20 minutes and the mission proceeds. It is later diagnosed as a handling problem with the first set of canisters.

A transponder calibration exercise on the third orbit is skipped to help the crew make up time and allows the PROM to separate from the frame of the VDL at T+4:51 as planned. After completing a separation burn with the main engine, the crew eat their first meal in zero-G before their first "night" in space, an eight hour sleep period from T+8:15.

Aurora 5's VDL-A is not quite the same “dumb structure” as that used on Aurora 4. It includes radio transponders and a simple telemetry system which will allow the PROM crew and ground controllers to pinpoint its position more accurately. The PROM starts its rendezvous manoeuvres at T+18:40, entering a low initial orbit to catch up with the VDL.
A series of thruster burns are made to gradually slow the approach and the PROM comes within 500' of the VDL nearly three hours later. At this point the crew take manual control and slowly guide their ship to within 20'. Thrusters are used to “fly” around it and the crew take several photographs.
They depart after nearly an hour and have a short break for lunch while the PROM and VDL slowly drift away from each other.

In the "afternoon" a second rendezvous is made, this time guided only by the PROM's instruments. This less sophisticated approach method consumes three times as much fuel as the earlier one, despite being started from more favourable conditions. The two tests confirms that, even when assisted by computer, a visual approach is unfavourable in terms of both fuel use and crew strain - the crew report their workload was much heavier on the second approach, while medical telemetry shows higher heart and respiration rates, confirming that they were under greater stress.
Nonetheless, the approach is a success and the PROM is back to station keeping with the VDL less than 5 hours after it left. After a series of checks, Waters and Keifer conduct the most memorable part of the flight - a live TV transmission as their ship passes over the Azores and Europe. Eleven minutes of colour TV is broadcast from the PROM, transmitted over most of Europe on Saturday afternoon. The rather rushed sequence includes footage of the crew, a brief tour of their PROM and views of the Earth and the nearby VDL structure.

The third day starts at T+40:15. Morning tasks include a main engine burn and verifying operating procedures while inside pressurised spacesuits, before the main event of the day; the first Selene Project spacewalk.
After lunch, they don their helmets and again cross-check their suits. At T+46:33, they start to vent the cabin atmosphere out into space. After an unhurried set of further checks, the hatch is opened and at T+47:05 Alan Keifer moves up and out, pausing while he holds the edge of the hatch to stabilise himself before letting go and drifting away from the PROM. Although his suit has an on board oxygen supply, he is still attached to the PROM by an umbilical line supplying power and communications links. Cdr Waters films him while he drifts in space and pulls himself back toward the PROM using his umbilical.
Acting on advice received from NASA, several hand and foot holds have been fitted to the side of the PM to allow Keifer to anchor himself to the side of the ship while he attempts to open a hatch and deploy an experimental antenna from inside. He is only partly successful as the tip of the three part antenna is lost when he removes all the pieces from the bag in which they were stored (Waters' film shows it drifting away into space). After over an hour outside, his throat raw from constant talking, Keifer returns to the CM. The cabin is sealed and repressurised at T+48:48, allowing the exhausted Keifer to remove his helmet and have a drink. He later reports that he was sweating heavily during his spacewalk (a fact that is evident to Cdr Waters immediately) but that the spacesuit just about managed to keep him adequately cool. The suit’s fans drove a jet of cold, dry air over his mouth which was not at all comfortable and probably contributed to his voice and throat problems later in the flight.

Day 4 is rather more mundane, with the crew conducting celestial and ground based navigation exercises and altering their orbit twice to allow several ground stations to calibrate radar and radio equipment. Attempts are made to photograph the Aurora Australis and the airglow layer later in the day. The crew then simulate a "lost contact" orbit change, taking all the navigation fixes and making all computations on board, without any ground assistance. No actual manoeuvre is made, but on board and ground calculations agree closely, to the great satisfaction of the crew.

With Keifer's throat still raw and his voice failing, it is considered unsafe to attempt a second spacewalk and the mission will not therefore be extended. After an overnight rest, the crew prepare for re-entry. The de-orbit burn is made using the main engine at T+91:16 and the flight of Aurora 5 is completed when the RM splashes down in the Pacific on December 24th, 91 hours 47 minutes after liftoff.

The Project is starting to demonstrate that it can deliver integrated plans, with managers, engineers, controllers and administrators in three countries working together – and succeeding. As the 1960s draws to a close, Selene has moved on from the ramshackle set of national organisations that began it. The Project is as ready as it can be for the challenges of a new decade and Aurora 5 provided the Project’s staff and backers with the proof that it can deliver on its plans.

Nevertheless, now that Britain and France have put a man in space, there are those who believe that enough has been done and it is time to move on to other goals. The New Year festivities die down and the studies and plotting start once more.

And then, 1970 happened.

A5 launch2.jpg
 
sts-200;11511807...And then said:
Now you have me guessing what that might mean.:D

I bet Soviets have something to do with it. Maybe a war involving Israel?

It is a little early for stagflation to start visibly gumming everything up. I was a child at this time OTL, just about to turn 5 in fact and living in a particularly isolated place most of that year--I do remember watching the Apollo 13 splashdown on live TV and that at that time we lived briefly in Florida, whereas most of the year was in Maine--a very remote part of Maine. (Our Florida location was a bit obscure as well). The point being, I hardly had my ear to the ground regarding stuff like the state of the global economy and in the places I lived, shock waves already clearly rolling elsewhere for those with eyes to see might not have arrived there yet. But my reconstructed impression, from the tone of the TV I remember (we did watch CBS News every evening, and one can glean intelligence from memories of prime time TV comedy/variety shows:p) combined with retrospective history reading, is that while 1970 of OTL was not a good year economically by late 1960s standards, its deficiencies and demerits paled before the discontents Nixon's OTL second term would bring--whereas the fact that Nixon was reelected so handily suggests that the really serious and visible economic breakdowns were successfully deferred to after early November 1972. Which seems to jibe pretty well with what I do remember of my kindergarten/early school years--the discontents of the earlier period, in this country anyway, were about the war and the general social crisis of the late 60s--hippies, drugs, all that jazz--and it was only later, around when I got to third grade, that suddenly people were worrying more about jobs, making ends meet, inflation and the energy crisis.

{edit--In addition to all the other buffers from the global economic landslide of the infamous '70s I alluded to and still others I enjoyed--being a military dependent, particularly one whose commissioned head of household had already served a tour in the current big war, was not a palatial life but a very stabilized one after all--I should recall this is from a British perspective. My ideas of British quality of life at the time came mainly from James Bond movies and U.F.O., so were a bit behind the times as well as glamorized. Already by 1970, the slide downhill might have looked like a mere bump to Americans but we had a long way to go down and needed time to build up momentum--Britain, excluded from the Common Market and with a bumpy relationship with Uncle Sam, might have been the canary in the coal mine, keeling over already by this early date in the crisis.}

So I'm betting anything particularly explaining "and then 1970 happened" is going to be ATL, though clearly related closely to the OTL fault lines that were tensing up--and possibly a Soviet space spectacular surprise of some kind.

I'm not guessing an American space surprise; British insiders and general public alike can see the US hand from over the shoulder as it were and the mood portrayed in Congress and the Nixon White House would seem to preclude any sudden dramatic moves; except insofar as the US is also perturbed by whatever the sudden event of 1970 is, what NASA will do is predictable for several years out.

An earlier edition of the Yom Kippur War might lead to an earlier oil crisis; I can't predict just how that interacts with creeping stagflation--probably in a bad way at least in the short run, though perhaps a sharp shock during Nixon's first term when he is still anxious about winning again in '72 will lead to some drastic flailing about which might conceivably hit on what looks temporarily at least to be a solution, changing the tone if not the bottom line of the 1970s. I don't believe anything any First World government could reasonably be expected to do in the first half of the 1970s could properly fix the deep causes of stagflation (indeed in a sense I don't believe anyone anywhere ever has anytime since either; the crisis has been rearranged so it falls most squarely on those with lowest incomes, and this has been politically normalized--inflation is reined in; stagnation becomes a way of life. :eek:Perhaps if an earlier crisis foreshadows the sort of future we live in OTL more strongly, a combination of insurgent political radicalism and establishment politicians keen to keep their jobs--Nixon among them--will change the terms of the subsequent debate and policies?

So anyway I look forward to the reveal, especially if it turns out absolutely nothing I guessed at is the main attraction.
 
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Now you have me guessing what that might mean.

I bet Soviets have something to do with it. Maybe a war involving Israel?

-Well ’68 and much of ’69 were perhaps a bit ordinary for the story, so the odd cliffhanger helps to liven it up a bit.
Things start to get more exciting in 1970. It won’t be anything that nasty though…

It is a little early for stagflation to start visibly gumming everything up. I was a child at this time OTL, just about to turn 5 in fact and living in a particularly isolated place most of that year--I do remember watching the Apollo 13 splashdown on live TV and that at that time we lived briefly in Florida, whereas most of the year was in Maine--a very remote part of Maine. (Our Florida location was a bit obscure as well). The point being, I hardly had my ear to the ground regarding stuff like the state of the global economy and in the places I lived, shock waves already clearly rolling elsewhere for those with eyes to see might not have arrived there yet. But my reconstructed impression, from the tone of the TV I remember (we did watch CBS News every evening, and one can glean intelligence from memories of prime time TV comedy/variety shows ) combined with retrospective history reading, is that while 1970 of OTL was not a good year economically by late 1960s standards, its deficiencies and demerits paled before the discontents Nixon's OTL second term would bring--whereas the fact that Nixon was reelected so handily suggests that the really serious and visible economic breakdowns were successfully deferred to after early November 1972. Which seems to jibe pretty well with what I do remember of my kindergarten/early school years--the discontents of the earlier period, in this country anyway, were about the war and the general social crisis of the late 60s--hippies, drugs, all that jazz--and it was only later, around when I got to third grade, that suddenly people were worrying more about jobs, making ends meet, inflation and the energy crisis.

{edit--In addition to all the other buffers from the global economic landslide of the infamous '70s I alluded to and still others I enjoyed--being a military dependent, particularly one whose commissioned head of household had already served a tour in the current big war, was not a palatial life but a very stabilized one after all--I should recall this is from a British perspective. My ideas of British quality of life at the time came mainly from James Bond movies and U.F.O., so were a bit behind the times as well as glamorized. Already by 1970, the slide downhill might have looked like a mere bump to Americans but we had a long way to go down and needed time to build up momentum--Britain, excluded from the Common Market and with a bumpy relationship with Uncle Sam, might have been the canary in the coal mine, keeling over already by this early date in the crisis.}

Broadly it was much the same in the UK, except for industrial relations being the political “hot potato” instead of the war.
The Sterling crisis of ‘67/68 passed quickly and the currency devaluation worked, for a time. Both nominal GDP figures and the real standard of living improved through to ’73 (as the saying goes “a lot of the sixties happened in the early seventies”). Large scale problems with the unions were avoided, but not settled, in ’71 and the economy grew quickly in 72/73, much too quickly as it turned out. The Energy Crisis was a double shock as there was already plenty of inflation in the system (although the UK didn’t actually have its oil supplies significantly interrupted, it was just the price shock). What really did for us was the widespread strikes in the winter of ’73-74 which crippled coal mining and a lot of other industries.

Personally (and with a lot of hindsight)*, I regard joining the UK joining the EEC as the last in a line of desperate measures that were taken to prop up badly run British large-scale industries. Since the war there had been lots of them e.g. attempts at Imperial Preference, several currency devaluations, some nationalisations, forced mergers, bailouts and then the Common Market. Some of those even worked – for a few years – but it was only delaying the inevitable. Industry hadn’t invested in machinery, education and labor relations (as, for instance, West Germany did) and it didn’t have cheap labour (e.g. Italy – at least in the 70s) so it just couldn’t compete.
In the long run, the Common Market has certainly been a good thing, although it didn’t (couldn’t) fix British industry back then. It’s just a pity it comes with so much “Europe” attached to it.


So I'm betting anything particularly explaining "and then 1970 happened" is going to be ATL, though clearly related closely to the OTL fault lines that were tensing up--and possibly a Soviet space spectacular surprise of some kind.

I'm not guessing an American space surprise; British insiders and general public alike can see the US hand from over the shoulder as it were and the mood portrayed in Congress and the Nixon White House would seem to preclude any sudden dramatic moves; except insofar as the US is also perturbed by whatever the sudden event of 1970 is, what NASA will do is predictable for several years out.
All well reasoned. NASA in the story has certainly been doing a wide variety of research.
Without the end of the decade deadline, the Soviets have been under less pressure; for good or ill.

An earlier edition of the Yom Kippur War might lead to an earlier oil crisis; I can't predict just how that interacts with creeping stagflation--probably in a bad way at least in the short run, though perhaps a sharp shock during Nixon's first term when he is still anxious about winning again in '72 will lead to some drastic flailing about which might conceivably hit on what looks temporarily at least to be a solution, changing the tone if not the bottom line of the 1970s. I don't believe anything any First World government could reasonably be expected to do in the first half of the 1970s could properly fix the deep causes of stagflation (indeed in a sense I don't believe anyone anywhere ever has anytime since either; the crisis has been rearranged so it falls most squarely on those with lowest incomes, and this has been politically normalized--inflation is reined in; stagnation becomes a way of life. Perhaps if an earlier crisis foreshadows the sort of future we live in OTL more strongly, a combination of insurgent political radicalism and establishment politicians keen to keep their jobs--Nixon among them--will change the terms of the subsequent debate and policies?

So anyway I look forward to the reveal, especially if it turns out absolutely nothing I guessed at is the main attraction.
I’m not sure a reality in which Nixon is even more keen to hang on to power bears thinking about too much! … although of course it could go the other way and provoke some unexpected honesty and blame shifting at the right moment.
That being said, I will risk controversy (depending on your views) by saying that I regard him as being one of the more capable and pragmatic Presidents, at least from a foreign policy perspective. Domestically I can see that view might be different.

Certainly nothing that has happened in the story so far will avoid the problems of the 70s. I don’t think that Egypt and Syria would have built up their forces enough to attack Israel this early. Things start to happen in the next instalment.
 
Oh, No ... Not again

Jan-70
At one of the new monthly press conferences set up by the Selene Public Relations Department, it is announced that future Aurora and Selene spacecraft will carry names. The public are invited to submit suggestions to the department as to names they wish to see used, although they are encouraged to suggest scientists, concepts or "other British or French names or terms associated with peaceful co-operation".
There will be no spacecraft called Nelson or Napoleon, although of course both are popular suggestions.

Jan-70 Overseas
US Intelligence produces a report for the Administration on the capabilities and intentions of foreign powers in the space field.
Despite a considerable number of failures which have been kept secret, the USSR still has a significant manned and unmanned lunar program underway. The “L1” program is intended to lead to a manned flight around the Moon, however, neither the capsule nor its launch vehicle have proven to be very reliable. During the most recent unmanned test in November, the spacecraft is known to have depressurised while in flight. Two unmanned programs are also underway, a robotic rover design and a heavy lander equipped to return samples to Earth. Several launches are believed to have occurred, although none have reached the Moon.
An N-1 launcher (the Soviet equivalent of the Saturn III) exploded in September 1969, destroying its launch pad. An earlier launch and a separate test of the vehicle's three upper stages were partial successes. The loss of the launch pad has put the program back by at least a year. The N-1 is known to have four stages, with the first and second of these having 24 and 8 engines respectively. Soviet flight rules call for at least 3 successful launches before they attempt to fly a crew.
A two man crew lander and three man orbital ship are well into the development stage, but a manned lunar landing by the USSR appears to be highly unlikely before 1974, a date which assumes they have few additional problems. Given the failure rate to date, 1975 might be more realistic. Even then, the small lander they are proposing to build will only allow their cosmonauts to spend a day or so on the surface. Rivalries between design bureaus and competing military requirements are acting to reduce the resources available to support the N-1 program. There are known to be plans for a small space station, which is being developed with military involvement.

Information regarding the Anglo-French Selene Project is obviously far easier to come by and much more accurate. Selene is nearly two years behind its original schedule. The British are known to be tiring of the continual budget increases needed to sustain it, although the recent agreement with Australia and continuing French enthusiasm are likely to sustain the Project for some time.
Much of Selene’s planning and technology are of a high standard, however the limited funding and resources has slowed progress. Failures to date are regarded as being due to lack of experience and the problems have been addressed (with some US help). The Project's optimistic schedule calls for a lunar landing in 1973, however analysts agree that Selene is unlikely to meet this goal. It is possible that the project will be scaled back or cancelled before then.

Jan-70
Pre flight checks now reveal issues with the programmer unit on board Explorateur 6. Changing the unit will delay the flight by two days. Launch is now scheduled for the 16th, meaning the probe will land with about 8 (Earth) days of sunlight before lunar night, rather than the planned 10 1/2.

Explorateur 6 / SSLV-11
Improved Explorateur spacecraft launched on an improved SSLV. This new version of the launcher includes a strengthened, standardised booster core and an all-inertial guidance system. Launched into a 179x181km parking orbit, then successfully boosted towards the Moon 21 minutes later. Separation is successful and early tracking shows the probe is well within trajectory limits. A brief course correction at T+12:48 raises the trajectory slightly and a second tiny correction at T+48:12 targets a 120km perilune. Very little fuel has been used in these mid-course corrections, and controllers prepare for the lunar orbit to be more elliptical than planned (due to the lunar orbit burn being performed by a solid rocket, the performance of which cannot be varied). Lunar orbit insertion is scheduled for T+72:34 and leaves the probe in a 119x655km lunar orbit.
Larger batteries on these new Explorateur spacecraft allow time for 4 tracking orbits before the next manoeuvre, which uses thrusters to lower the orbit to 118x180km. Final targeting is performed after a further 4 orbits, sending the probe down to approach within 17.9km of the lunar surface. After a final tracking orbit, the braking burn is scheduled for T+94:52.
Due to the high approach altitude, this is angled to accelerate the probe slightly towards the lunar surface. For some reason, the burn proves to be slightly off and leaves the probe heading for the Moon at nearly 150m/s (not the 80m/s that was intended).
The lander separates from its braking booster, pitches over and fires its landing engines as it is programmed to do, and the radar locks onto the surface at 6770m. Despite using maximum thrust, control limits and the high initial descent rate mean that the probe cannot slow down quickly enough to make a soft landing. It hits the surface at about 90mph.


The failure of Explorateur 6 is greeted with calls for Selene to be cancelled, suspended or redefined as something that is more likely to succeed. Open letters and newspaper editorials comment that neither the Americans nor the Russians seem to be rushing to send crews to the Moon, so why should Britain or France?
As ever, national pride kicks in and British papers highlight that it was a French spacecraft that failed, while the view in France is that the British insisted on a redesign of the spacecraft - just when French engineers were on the verge of success (Explorateur 4, the last "original" probe, successfully landed on the Moon but its camera payload failed).

The Selene Board sets up an investigation team to study the failure of Explorateur 6. On previous occasions, these failures and the investigations have been accepted as a reasonable part of the process of experimental space flight, however this time the anger of press and public is not so easily placated. The team is criticised for being composed entirely of Selene Project staff. At a press conference later in the month, a harassed Selene official makes the mistake of saying “Unfortunately, failure is an option when doing this sort of work”; provoking the quick-witted response “Well, if failure is only optional, why do you never succeed?”. The room dissolves into laughter as the panel looks on, the sense of despair evident on their faces.

Despite several pointed questions in the House, the official position remains that Selene is a long term international project to which Britain remains committed. In a programme involving such a level of cutting edge science and technology, some difficulties are to be expected as part of the development process.
Politicians are accused of "defending the indefensible".

SNECMA complete testing of an improved R-1450 engine for the ECPS upper stage. The engine is now delivering 433s specific impulse and 143tf of thrust, a performance that is regarded as adequate due to improvements elsewhere in the design of the rocket.
Several early production engines are just about to begin qualification tests. It is hoped to integrate an engine with an ECPS stage in the spring for ground tests, before a test flight late in the autumn.

OTR-24
Blue Streak test and training flight from Benbecula. Also carries a Gamma Ray experiment in a side pod. Range: 1,602mi, impact 1,600' from target point.

Feb-70 Overseas
After nearly two years of studies, memos, discussions and re-designs, President Nixon formally instructs NASA to start the construction of a Space Shuttle to enable routine, low cost access to space. Funds to start this development will be included in the 1971 budget. NASA is directed to complete the selection of a contractor to build the Shuttle by the autumn.
The design concepts submitted by firms in November have been recast several times since. An outline configuration for the Shuttle has been decided, governed partly by cost and consideration of re-using existing assets. The Shuttle itself will be a winged orbiter with a large payload bay. Four improved J-2 engines will be fitted to the early versions, to be replaced later by a "high performance" design. Models shown at the press conference show that this orbiter will carry its fuel in a cheap, expendable external tank, with orbiter and tank launched on top of a modified Saturn first stage. The design will allow reuse of the Saturn system of pads, transporters and assembly buildings.

Feb-70
SNECMA engine designers believe they have resolved the earlier problems with the R-1065 throttleable rocket engine. An improved pump design and heat exchanger now allow a greater proportion of gaseous Oxygen to be injected into the engine. This serves to break up the liquid flow into sufficiently small droplets to ensure adequate combustion stability at all thrust settings. The improvements in injector design have also reduced the drop in efficiency at low thrust settings.
Due to increases in the mass of the VDL-C, it now appears unlikely that the engine will ever be called upon to operate at less than 30% throttle, although tests now confirm stable operation down to 22%.

Officials from both the MoD and from contractors privately express support for the Selene project. The military still regard the flights as valuable testing and training for the Black Anvil missile system. British contractors, including BAC and Rolls Royce, state that their hardware is working well and even defend their French counterparts, pointing out that the reliability of British built spacecraft was not high in the early days. They seek to assure ministers that lessons have been learned and improvements are being made in co-operation with the French.

Feb-70 Overseas
There are protests in towns and cities across the US following several coast-to-coast supersonic test flights of a prototype Boeing 7227 airliner. Complaints about the sonic boom noise, the cost and the alleged environmental impact of the SST are mounting. Two of these prototypes are now flying and Boeing are now assembling the first production airliner. The firm has 108 orders from 17 US and overseas airlines and expects the plane to enter service in 1972.
 
The Day the World Looked Small

After the failure of Explorateur 6, Selene appeared to be almost indefensible. The goal of reaching the Moon looked even further away than it had in 1967, when the entire Project was in question. Manned spaceflight had been achieved by the USA, the USSR and finally, in 1969, by Britain and France. Perhaps now might be right the time to stop, join the Americans in their space station programme, or aim for a wider, pan-European space effort.
It was the first time that the Project’s internal morale came close to breaking point.
The mood of despondency was such that it seemed as though nothing on Earth could save Selene.




Red Moon

Seven hours after his ship blasted off from Baikonur, Radio Moscow announces that Cosmonaut Alexsei Leonov is on course for the Moon aboard the spacecraft Zond 8.

The broadcast is picked up by every press agency, radio and TV network and Americans go to bed with the news, Europeans wake up to it a few hours later. Unlike some of the more recent Soviet flights, there had been no warning, not even any vague rumours that they were about to attempt something so spectacular as a manned circumlunar mission.

The flight includes three grainy black-and-white TV transmissions from on board the Zond.
The first is an interview with party officials, carried “live” on Soviet television and later relayed around the world. As is the case with many such Soviet publicity stunts, the story of this live broadcast is confusing. Claims by some Western observers that it was a fake are half-true. The interview did take place but the radio link to the spacecraft was of such poor quality that it was deemed unfit to broadcast (and it was never going to be truly “live”, it would have been time-delayed by 30 minutes to allow for official approval). The version actually shown some hours later included the footage of Soviet leaders recorded during the real interview, together with copies of one of Leonov’s ground based practice interviews cut into it.
After the next broadcast, the deception is clearer; there are subtle differences in the internal layout of the capsule visible between this first (ground recorded) and the subsequent (real) broadcasts. For years, this would be held by some as “conclusive evidence” that the entire flight was a fake. Such rumours made for good anti-Soviet propaganda and Western officials made no attempt to dispel them. The flight wasn’t a fake, and the people who mattered knew it.

The second transmission is too garbled and fuzzy to see or hear anything of note; it was never even released for broadcast in the West.

On the 10th February, three days after launch, Zond 8 makes an unpowered flyby of the Moon. Leonov takes photographs of the sunlit farside as it rapidly approaches and recedes from his field of view. His orbit takes the ship within 500km of the lunar surface.

By the time of Leonov’s third broadcast, Soviet radio technicians have been able to filter out some of the interference that is present in the Zond’s signals, and it is possible to see some detail. Audio quality is also noticeably better (actually it was relayed on a separate radio channel after the broadcast). The fifteen minute transmission includes pictures of the lunar surface, taken from just a few thousand kilometres, as the spacecraft hurtles away from the Moon and back towards Earth. The highlight of the transmission is supposed to be when Leonov turns his tiny ship around to show the partly illuminated Earth from nearly a quarter of a million miles away. Despite his enthusiastic descriptions, the ghostly black and white images show little more than a whitish blotch set against a black background and fail to convey the wonder of what he is seeing to most viewers. His phrase “the world looks so small from here, but it is comforting to look back and see my home” is much more memorable, conveying some small sense of what it must be like to be the only human being within 250,000 miles, the most isolated man in all of history.

With Leonov’s help, on board automatic and ground based systems guide the ship towards a complex re-entry intended to slow the ship down gradually. Even so, he has to withstand deceleration forces of up to 9G as the Soyuz plunges into the atmosphere, before ascending to “skip” over the Arctic and land in Kazakhstan, only 200 miles south of his original launch site. Picked up by helicopter within minutes of landing, the next day he is flown to Vnukovo airport in Moscow and meets Party dignitaries at the Kremlin before receiving a hero's welcome on the balcony overlooking in Red Square. The parade is as grand as any held on May Day.

In Britain, the success of Leonov's flight abruptly ends the calls in moderate left and right wing press for the abandonment of the Selene Project. The Minister of Technology, Tony Benn, who had been under fire for his support of Selene is suddenly praised for his determination and insight in seeking to preserve this "vital project".

Reaction in the USA is more varied. The unfortunate timing of the Shuttle announcement overshadows the thinking of the US administration as they decide how to react. The President and his advisors are still privately convinced that the Shuttle is the right idea; it is new, it "spreads the money around" and offers commercial possibilities once it is built. Flying to the Moon would not serve a direct commercial or military purpose. However, public demand for a US response is clear, although how long this will last is unknown.
While the implication of the Shuttle announcement was that NASA's lunar program was being downgraded, the speech did not actually mention the Moon at all. Harsher comments are reserved for the CIA, which reported only 5 weeks ago that the Soviet space program was achieving little, suffering failure after failure.
 
While I haven't been commenting, I'm eagerly reading these near-daily updates. As you have said, this timeline will end with the conclusion of the 'second Selene project', which I take to mean the Franco-British moon landing. Nevertheless, it would be really cool to have some hints about its aftermath. Surely the European space effort won't fall flat on its face Apollo-style afterwards? To Mars, I say!
Keep up the good work, this timeline's simply splendid.
 
While I haven't been commenting, I'm eagerly reading these near-daily updates. As you have said, this timeline will end with the conclusion of the 'second Selene project', which I take to mean the Franco-British moon landing. Nevertheless, it would be really cool to have some hints about its aftermath. Surely the European space effort won't fall flat on its face Apollo-style afterwards? To Mars, I say!
Keep up the good work, this timeline's simply splendid.

Many thanks. There's plenty still to come.
Selene isn't just programme to deliver a one-off landing, there are plans for more missions. However, the story doesn't run up to the present day, there will be a definite end and an epilogue.
Mars? .. well the world does have three large-scale space programmes.
 
Many thanks. There's plenty still to come.
Selene isn't just programme to deliver a one-off landing, there are plans for more missions. However, the story doesn't run up to the present day, there will be a definite end and an epilogue.
Mars? .. well the world does have three large-scale space programmes.

Good to hear TTL will keep going for some time! Speaking of those three large-scale space programmes, will we be seeing more of their practical applications? Space exploration is its own reward of course, but its spin-offs are quite interesting too. Will the British TV satellites just be the first example of this? Not trying to ask too much of course, this story is simply amazing.
 
Can we do it?

Feb-70
Sud Aviation deliver the first ECPS flight-weight test article. This large upper stage structure will be flown out to Australia for integration with a Constellation test vehicle in order to verify the design of connections with the launch pad and payloads.


Mar-70
French, British and Australian ministers meet with the Selene Board to discuss the capabilities and future conduct of the Project.
Project managers and engineers state that, subject to the availability of booster cores for Constellation launchers, the Project should be able to launch a manned lunar landing flight by the end of 1973. The Board believes that the novel and un-tested booster recovery programme represents the most significant risk to this schedule. The production or allocation of 6-8 additional booster cores for use by Selene would eliminate the need for any booster recovery prior to the first landing. The cost of additional cores is well known (at about £5.5M per core) and these could in fact be "re-allocated" to Selene from other programmes. The overall cost and the success of the booster recovery programme is still uncertain, but it seems highly unlikely that it will show a return over less than 40 core uses (20 launches).
An ambitious test programme is planned for 1971 and 72 using improved versions of the PROM and VDL spacecraft. Following the success of Aurora 5, studies are underway regarding a more complex long duration mission for Aurora 7.

Mar-70 Overseas
After the recent damage to their reputation following Leonov's flight, the CIA briefs the President that the Soviet Union has no ability to follow up on their recent success. The agency has credible evidence that Zond 8 was the last in a series of 15 vehicles built for circumlunar flight. Only 5 previous missions could be regarded as any sort of success, with only two being completely successful. The Zond 8 flight therefore represented a "last throw of the dice" for the Soviets.
The first launch pad for the large N-1 rocket is still being rebuilt, with a second pad well into its construction phase. Further test flights are expected in 1971 and 72 before a series of manned missions, which might lead up to a lunar landing in 1974 or 75.

NASA states that with significant, immediate funding increases, it could launch a manned lunar landing mission in 1974. This date cannot be brought forward due to the need to complete the development and testing of a descent module for the large Apollo spacecraft, and also perfect the orbital fuel transfer techniques that will be needed. A circumlunar flight using a Saturn III / Apollo vehicle could be launched before the end of the year.
The President and his advisors remain unconvinced by NASA's lunar plans. Station and Shuttle advocates within NASA have pointed out that the US is far ahead of the Soviets in long duration spaceflight and in building reusable spacecraft. They argue that these technologies represent a better use of American money and talent.
It is commented that "Whatever stunt the Soviets may or may not attempt on the Moon in five years’ time should not shape our policy today".

Mar-70
The Selene Board briefs British and French governments on mission plans for the next six months.
The next flight, Aurora 6, is due next month. The mission plan has been expanded to a 9 day flight and will repeat much of the Aurora 5 mission before using the PROM's engine achieve a higher orbit. Explorateur 7 is scheduled for May. Several issues have been identified since the last flight and controllers are now quietly confident of a successful landing.

The real reason for the briefing is to discuss Aurora 7, currently scheduled for July. For some months, in fact pre-dating the Zond 8 flight, Selene flight planners have been developing a bold new mission. If it succeeds, it would be a powerful reply to the Russians and a welcome boost to the Project’s morale and prestige.
If Aurora 6 is a success, the Board proposes delaying the flight of Aurora 7 until August and launching it as Selene 1, a mission that would attempt to use the PROM's main engine to boost it out of Earth orbit and fly around the Moon. Technical studies show that this is just (barely) within the safe performance margins of the PROM’s propulsion system, given that some weight can be saved by reducing flight stores and removing a data recorder normally used on low Earth orbit flights. A checkout phase in Earth orbit would be used to verify the performance of the PROM before committing to the 6 day lunar flight. The Board is seeking the agreement of both British and French governments before any firm decision is made.


Apr-70 Overseas
Lockheed and North American Rockwell designs for the Space Shuttle are rejected on grounds of cost. The NAR design is too expensive and Government auditors are suspicious of Lockheed's optimistic pricing, following huge overruns on the firm’s C-5 aircraft program. Lockheed's proposal to use non-US components is not viewed in a positive light. Both firms are invited to resubmit other plans.


Apr-70
Aurora 6
Commander Jacques Gautier and Navigator Malcolm Leyton-Arnold launch from Rainbow Beach at 0915 on the 5th April.
They spend the first two days in orbit aboard the “Liberte” performing manual and semi-automated rendezvous manoeuvres with their jettisoned VDL-A stage. On day 3, Leyton-Arnold makes his first spacewalk and performs a carefully planned unpacking and assembly task (of a simple frame structure intended to represent an experiment package) during a 71 minute spacewalk. Redesigned cooling flows inside his suit help to avoid some of the problems experienced by Alain Keifer on Aurora 5 and he returns to the Re-entry Module in good health. Flight medics on the ground monitored him closely throughout and noted far lower heart and respiration rates than on the Aurora 5 spacewalk.

On day 4, the crew use the PROM's main engine to raise their orbit to 202x385km and take a series of cloud photographs while over Europe, timed to coincide with other observations on the ground.

Leyton-Arnold makes a second spacewalk on day 5, however it is cut short after 58 minutes by the failure of external lights on the spacecraft. He reports that the spacecraft appeared totally black until he returned to within line of sight of the cabin lights. After a brief delay to jettison equipment, he returns safely to the cabin.

Days 6 and 7 are taken up with ground navigation exercises and photography, interrupted by a computer failure at T+153:17. The automatic controls cease to function during a routine manoeuvre to point the PROM's nose towards Earth, leaving the ship gently spinning past its programmed heading and eventually turning back away from the Earth. Cdr Gautier quickly re-enters the command, but receives no response. He then switches out the computer’s control loop and uses the manual RCS controls to point the PROM as intended. It becomes clear that the computer is not functioning in any mode; even the electronic displays show a set of constant numbers, numbers which should be continuously changing. No input is being accepted by the computer through any controls.

After two orbits, ground controllers and crew have exhausted most options and are left with the choice of aborting much of the rest of the flight plan or attempting to re-initialise the computer while in orbit (a procedure that is normally only done on the ground before the flight). As the crew are in no immediate danger - the PROM can still be flown using the manual controls - the decision is taken to proceed with a scheduled sleep period at T+158:00 while ground based teams investigate other options.

Their tests on a PROM simulator succeed in duplicating the computer fault, however the computer has a "reset timer" which should override such faults after 1.5 seconds.
The last set of data sent down by the telemetry system included a reading from one of the RCS flow sensors that would result in the computer trying to divide by zero; a technical impossibility. However, the computer doesn’t “know” it is impossible and will attempt an infinite series of loops to perform the calculation. The reset timer is there for this exact type of situation – if the computer is in a loop, it is stopped after a maximum of 1.5 seconds and told to move on to the next instruction. The fact that the computer has not reset suggests there is either a fault in the reset timer, or the sensor keeps sending this zero signal.

The crew are woken early at T+164 hours (they report they were awake anyway) to perform several manual corrections to systems that may be needed for re-entry. If the computer cannot be reset, there is little point in continuing the mission.

At T+166:20 they are free to start diagnosing the computer issues under guidance from the ground. One of their early steps is to isolate the sensor that may be sending the zero. A circuit breaker is pulled to switch off electrical power to the RCS sensor assembly. Barely a second later, the computer driven screen starts updating again (although the information it displays is nonsense as the data is now hours old).
Restoring power to the sensor assembly seems to have no effect until an RCS burn is commanded, at which point the computer immediately freezes again. The breaker is pulled out once more, the computer unfreezes, and the crew move on to the task of resetting their guidance system and updating the many variables that have changed since yesterday’s failure.

By T+168:40 they once again have a fully functioning PROM. The isolated circuit means they cannot see temperature and pressure readings from the RCS thrusters. Although all the engines should continue to function, the crew and ground have lost many of their automatic fault detection and monitoring systems. If something goes wrong with the thrusters, they will have to detect it in other ways and compensate manually. Based on the perfect performance of the thrusters so far, controllers and crew agree to proceed with the high orbit mission. The flight plan will be adapted to minimise engine use and ensure the PROM can return at any time, even if either the main engine or several RCS engines fail.

The remainder of day 8 is occupied by further spacecraft checks and the opportunity is taken to catch up on some of the ground photography that was missed yesterday.
At T+193:32, Gautier commands the computer to ignite their main engine for an 18 second burn which sends the PROM out to a maximum altitude of 762km. On subsequent orbits, they practice navigation techniques without any direct reference to the Earth's horizon; techniques such as this will be needed for future deep space flights.

At T+213:02, the crew wake for their final morning in space. They make a deorbit burn at T+215:38 and splash down 27 minutes later in the Indian Ocean. There is concern at mission control, as no radio contact is made with the RM after re-entry. It lands normally, 4 miles from the primary recovery ship and there is considerable relief when recovery swimmers find the crew in good health.

With the capsule back on Earth, investigators identify the probable cause of the sensor failure that caused the computer problems during the flight. Electronics attached to a series of temperature and pressure sensors convert analogue signals into digital ones that can be read by the computer. It has been found that these electronics can fail and leave a continuous "high" output, which the computer interprets as zero. One of the calculations involves dividing by this number (it is a temperature reading, which should therefore always be greater than zero), leading to the computer attempting to perform an infinite iteration. The "reset timer" did in fact stop the computer and told it to move on. However, the next instructions would cause it to keep trying to obtain a new set of readings from the same sensors. The trouble was that these new readings would also have been zero, leading the computer back into the same trap.
The solution is fairly simple. All future flights will incorporate a bias in the program settings that will ensure that these variables cannot ever be read as zero.
Two further features will be developed for use on later flights; this type of recursive sensor check will be eliminated (where possible), and a new function will be incorporated to allow the computer to be told to ignore data from individual sensors, allowing one failed sensor to be isolated without the need to switch off all the others.
 
Good to hear TTL will keep going for some time! Speaking of those three large-scale space programmes, will we be seeing more of their practical applications? Space exploration is its own reward of course, but its spin-offs are quite interesting too. Will the British TV satellites just be the first example of this? Not trying to ask too much of course, this story is simply amazing.

Oh yes, in that respect there's nothing noble about Selene, it was always intended to build up the industry and generate export revenue. The Australians are already a junior partner/market and there's an Intelsat deal.
Both firms and government are very actively trying to sell this stuff around the world.
 
interesting Computer error

in My first version of 2001: A Space-Time Odyssey
the first Europa 2 is lost because the fight computer Elliot MCS 920M, produce a stack overflow, that error trigger the self destruction system.
 
interesting Computer error

in My first version of 2001: A Space-Time Odyssey
the first Europa 2 is lost because the fight computer Elliot MCS 920M, produce a stack overflow, that error trigger the self destruction system.

Yes, it's a nasty little one; like most aerospace failures it isn't single point and (I hope) quite a nice illustration of the sort of problem they had with early embedded computing. It was early days for software-hardware interaction and asynchronous programming.

It's also (sort of) a variant of one of many Apollo 11 problems, when the LGC lacked the processing ability to complete all its tasks - due to a different set of faults. However, that wasn't a loop and the "restart protection" worked, forcing the computer to move on and skip some relatively unimportant tasks (like updating the astronaut's displays). Largely thanks to the preparation of two guys called Steve Bales and Jack Garman, they didn't abort the landing.
When you look into it a bit more deeply, it's remarkable that any of the Apollo missions succeeded - 10,11,12,13,14 and 16 all had major faults/failures that could easily have resulted in an aborted landing (up until early '69, they did consider a landing attempt on 10). 17 was the only one that was relatively trouble-free.
A testament to good planning and a willingness to accept risk that is sadly lacking today.
 
Oh, I want to comment on the ATL STS program and suggest a diversion that might lead to benefits.

But too late tonight!

I was wondering if OTL the simple divide by zero problem itself led to embarrassments as here. Adding a ballast number sidesteps the issue but it also fails to take the opportunity to have a diagnostic. If temperature reads as absolute zero, there should be a flag pinpointing the thermometers as out of parameters and targeting them for checks, instead of simply kludging around the problem. The divide by zero embarrassment points at a hardware failure that should be investigated.

But it wouldn't if the output read at some arbitrary fake temperature greater than zero, plus some small number of degrees. I should read again to see how it managed to be exactly zero.

Remembering how tiny and slow the data processing capacity would be with 1970 tech (though it seemed marvelous enough at the time) I'm probably imagining processors with capability orders of magnitude beyond what could go into an orbital capable capsule in those days. This is the era of "machine language," indeed machine language might be very high end, and clock speeds and total memory capability might not allow for the sort of diagnostic flagging I'm thinking would have preempted the prolblem.
 
Oh, I want to comment on the ATL STS program and suggest a diversion that might lead to benefits.

But too late tonight!

There’s more to come with the Shuttle, but I look forward to hearing any ideas. I won’t give too many hints, but while the announcement has been made much earlier than in reality, the design isn’t finalised and the various centres and sub-contractors are still lobbying to have their ideas accepted.
Cost and politics will come in, but the NASA of the story hasn’t been as expensive as in reality, which in some ways puts it in a better position.


I was wondering if OTL the simple divide by zero problem itself led to embarrassments as here. Adding a ballast number sidesteps the issue but it also fails to take the opportunity to have a diagnostic. If temperature reads as absolute zero, there should be a flag pinpointing the thermometers as out of parameters and targeting them for checks, instead of simply kludging around the problem. The divide by zero embarrassment points at a hardware failure that should be investigated.

But it wouldn't if the output read at some arbitrary fake temperature greater than zero, plus some small number of degrees. I should read again to see how it managed to be exactly zero.

Remembering how tiny and slow the data processing capacity would be with 1970 tech (though it seemed marvelous enough at the time) I'm probably imagining processors with capability orders of magnitude beyond what could go into an orbital capable capsule in those days. This is the era of "machine language," indeed machine language might be very high end, and clock speeds and total memory capability might not allow for the sort of diagnostic flagging I'm thinking would have preempted the prolblem.

Whether the zero divide problem has happened I don't know, but there have certainly been spacecraft that have simply stopped responding or been lost/got into trouble because of a single number in the computer's memory.
Resets are quite common on deep space probes where radiation causes memory damage. Almost all satellites have a "safe mode" which just keeps them supplied with power and waits for orders from Earth. Even that doesn't always work - the most recent example I am aware of was Galaxy 15, a comsat that "stopped", leaving it drifting with its transmitters left on. They had to shuffle a dozen or so other satellites out of the way to avoid interference. Months later it ran out of power and restarted itself properly.


On the computer side, it’s a bit early for that level of error-trapping, at least on an ultra-compact machine, running at a blistering 525kHz !
There would also be limits on program size. Computer memory at the time was usually even heavier and more power-hungry than the computer itself; modern RAM, ROM, EPROM etc. had barely been invented by 1970, and certainly wasn’t available for something originally designed in 1963/4.
The event in the story is an “unknown unknown” – i.e. a problem that hadn’t been thought of. It’s the sort of thing that could easily have been missed; it wasn’t a fault on the spacecraft (the thruster and the sensor were fine), nor was it a computer fault (the computer and even the watchdog timer worked as intended). The fault could never happen in the analogue world (an analogue temperature sensor can never read exactly zero). In this new world of digital control, it can.
So, what happened was an unexpected consequence of a single-point hardware failure. They thought they had trapped out such things, but with the complexity of non-sequential programing and software-hardware interaction, no-one had thought of this one.

Issues like this will make them want to improve their systems but there are limits, e.g. the read-only version of ferrite core memory would need to be physically changed to alter the program.

In reality, there were faults in the early AGC/LGC programs that were either never fixed, or had to be lived with for a couple of flights until the new hard-wired “software” came through the production process. One of my favourite examples is an LM program bug, which meant that the descent engine throttle control wasn’t stable. Happily there was another bug that (partly) cancelled out the effect. Apollos 11 & 12 landed with the fault - they discovered it on 11, but it was too late to change it for 12.

As much of Selene is happening more slowly and a bit later than Apollo did, they may yet be able to improve a few things.
 
Last Chance Selene

Explorateur 7​

Lunar landers of the 1960s suffered failure after failure. Early version of the US “Rangers” scored 0 for 4. The Soviets tried eleven times before succeeding with “Luna 9”. Even the sophisticated US “Surveyors” only achieved 4 for 7. What engineers had nicknamed the “Great Galactic Ghoul” clearly had it in for Explorateur too. Missions 1 to 3 failed outright. Explorateur 4 landed, but there were no pictures. 5 suffered a launch vehicle failure and 6 hit the Moon at nearly 100mph, smashing itself to bits on impact.

After a shaky start, when French designers repeated some of the mistakes made earlier by their British and American counterparts, the Explorateur’s systems have been completely redesigned. The pride of both leading Selene nations, several firms and many engineers is now on the line.

The loss of Explorateur 6 is diagnosed as a combination of timing and guidance errors. During the braking burn, the spacecraft was supposed to be orientated nearly parallel to its velocity vector, with a tiny (less than 1 degree) "nose down" attitude to allow the solid rocket motor to gently nudge the spacecraft towards the lunar surface. This angle was actually close to 2 degrees, meaning the spacecraft was pushed toward the surface much faster than intended. Control limits then meant that the thrusters could not slow it down in time to stop it hitting. Two causes are suspected - that the guidance platform had drifted more than expected and that an incorrectly set timing signal made the probe's guidance act as if it was further from the landing site than in reality.

With governments making unfriendly noises about the future of Selene if there are yet more failures, there is an unprecedented level of cooperation between British and French teams in preparation for Explorateur 7. Sud Aviation have invited control and test specialists from the UK to work alongside their own engineers during the pre-flight checkout process. More precise measurements of the behaviour of the probe's guidance system and its mass distribution are made. Integrated tests using the new mission control facilities and simulators on the ground are being used to prepare controllers for a wide range of mission plans, including several “off normal” backup missions.

Even "outsiders" are involved - communications time has been leased from Intelsat to ensure that the flight of Explorateur 7 will be monitored continuously from launch until the mission ends. The Intelsat relay will allow real-time telemetry from ground stations around the world to flow into mission control in France.
The Selene Film Unit is involved at all stages of the process to help show the public the scale of the enterprise and the level of Anglo-French co-operation. Much of the archive film of Explorateur and Silver Star launch operations that is seen in TV documentaries to this day comes from footage taken during preparations for Explorateur 7.

Despite a surge in popularity after the flights of Aurora 4 and 5, financial opposition to the Project is mounting once again. Costs are rising and schedules seem to be slipping. Many officials in Britain believe that the goal of an independent British space programme has been achieved with the success of the Hermes TV broadcast system and the manned Aurora flights. Despite the challenge posed by the recent Soviet lunar flight, members of the Selene Board have been warned that if the next Explorateur fails, the Project may become politically and economically indefensible.

However, Project morale has been rising since the Luna 8 flight and is only boosted by the success of Aurora 6 in April. In an important test of new control and review procedures, several problems encountered during the flight were resolved and the mission was able to continue to complete all its primary goals. With the culture of “all French” or “all British” parts of the Project being rapidly overcome, an experienced Anglo-French team have worked together to diagnose and fix several faults with the Explorateur 7 spacecraft. On previous flights, these could easily have been missed – as past results show.

The mission privately described by British officials as "Selene's Last Chance" lifts off successfully from Rainbow Beach on the 15th May.
Silver Star Launch Vehicle No.12 releases the probe onto a course for the Moon at T+1:21 and a 6s thruster correction at T+12:15 is all that is needed during the entire translunar flight. A lunar orbit of 102x264km is achieved at T+72:37 and this is lowered to 100x107km at T+80:57. A 76s burn at T+84:58 then achieves a 100x19km "pre-landing orbit".

Three complete revolutions are made in this orbit to allow for precise tracking of the spacecraft before the landing attempt begins. At T+90:42 a brief pulse with the thrusters lowers the perilune to 17km. The cruise stage is jettisoned eighteen minutes later, after the probe’s orbit carries it out from behind the Moon.

The solid fuelled braking engine is fired at T+91:37 at an altitude of 17.7km. Data reconstructed from telemetry shows that at the end of the burn, the probe was falling gently towards the lunar surface at 53m/s with an altitude of 16,662m. The solid motor over-performed slightly and left the lander with a horizontal velocity of 19m/s (vs a planned 30-70m/s). Now upright and stable under the control of its small on board thrusters, it descends at near constant velocity waiting for its landing radar to lock on to the lunar surface. 136s later, at 7.2km altitude, the radar locks on and starts the automatic landing algorithm designed to slow the probe to zero velocity just above the surface. At this point, all ground control can do is watch the telemetry. Although they are a great improvement on earlier flights, the probe’s limited on board systems do not allow for anything other than an automatic landing.

The low horizontal velocity confuses the landing control system, which expects to have to slow the lander at a greater rate. The system overcorrects, sending the lander off in the opposite direction briefly before slowing it back down to a near-vertical descent. The long and wild descent uses up more fuel than expected and fuel levels drop “below the bottom of the gauge” while the ship is still several hundred feet up. If it weren’t for the sound of the cooling fans, you could have heard a pin drop in the control room.

To both cheers and gasps of relief, Explorateur 7 touches down in the Mare Humorum at 1016 GMT on the 17th of May.

High rate communications are established less than a minute later and relay of the first slow-scan TV image of the lunar surface begins at 1018. Over the next 9 days, over 2,400 images are sent back showing details of the dusty, rocky plain surrounding the landing site. Temperature and soil conductivity experiments are made using a robotic arm, which is also videoed slowly digging a trench and moving lunar dust around on the surface. The mission ends when the batteries on the lander cease to be able provide enough power for the main transmitter.

Post flight analysis of Explorateur 7's landing show how close the mission came to failure. By happy coincidence, the probe took 1.2s longer than planned to point towards the Moon and ignite its landing engines. These engines then produced 1.8% less thrust than is normal, meaning that the lander fell towards the lunar surface slightly more quickly. If these two anomalies had not occurred, the probe would have run out of fuel while still several hundred feet above the surface.
It landed with just 18 seconds of fuel remaining.

But it did land.
 
Holding their Nerve

May-70 Overseas
Lunar circumnavigator Alexsei Leonov visits the US as part of a world tour. Although his flight provoked shock and anger amongst many Americans, most of it was directed at their own government. Everywhere he visits, he is greeted by crowds as a hero. Calls for a US response to the flight had died down in recent months, however they now reappear in the press and there are a few calls for a rally in Washington to demand action.
The calls are never answered, Americans have more important matters on their minds.


May-70
Reviews of the VDL design show that the full lunar landing version, the VDL-C, is significantly overweight. Designers have known this for some time and various attempts have been made to control weight growth, or reduce it where possible. These ad-hoc strategies have not worked and weight growth has continued at an alarming rate over the past six months. It is now at the point at which the VDL is too heavy to complete the landing mission with an adequate payload.
The joint French/UK Change Control Board is instructed to expand its efforts and work more closely with the various sub-contractors to develop and implement a weight reduction plan. Although the design of the VDL remains firmly under the control of Nord Aviation, a significant number of HSD engineers are now actively involved in VDL development.

A UK General Election is called for the 19th of June.
Although a few commentators try to tie this announcement to the success of the Explorateur lunar landing two days earlier (both stories occupy the front pages of almost all the newspapers), the Prime Minister had been debating calling an election for some time.
With relatively little economic bad news and the prospect of an unpopular currency decimalisation in 1971, Harold Wilson has decided that now would be a less risky time to attempt to secure a Labour mandate for the next five years.

Relief in the top levels of Selene management over the success of Explorateur 7 is tempered by the difficult decision needed regarding the flight plan for Aurora 7.
A lunar flyby appears to be a realistic possibility. The PROM and Silver Star launcher would be capable of performing the mission with an adequate safety margin, and it is agreed that there is little to be gained from a straightforward repeat of the Aurora 6 mission. More sophisticated missions using the VDL-B are planned to start later in the year, meaning there will be a six month gap if Aurora 7 is not flown.
The difficulties in controlling Explorateur flights from the ground have shown that feedback provided by the crew will be essential if an accurate (not to say safe) landing is to be achieved. A lunar flyby by Aurora 7 would give an opportunity to test some of the observation and navigation techniques that later crews will need for lunar orbit and landing. Planners are confident of their ability to safely guide the PROM around the Moon; even the relatively unsophisticated Lunar Orbiter and Explorateur spacecraft have been tracked accurately into lunar orbit.
The Board will seek the approval of national governments before a lunar flight is attempted.

May-70 Overseas
Although public support for a US lunar program is not felt to be widespread, the President calls on NASA to expand its program of scientific exploration from Earth orbiting stations towards the Moon and Mars. Nixon’s speech is just that - a speech. In practice, the leadership is far too concerned with other matters to worry about NASA, while the development of the Space Shuttle is still regarded as the first step towards more sophisticated space exploration.
Space industry and NASA leaders privately admit that it is unlikely that the US could land a man on the Moon until 1974, as there has been little progress towards the development of a lander vehicle; programs such as the X-20 and Orbital Lab have taken precedence for funding. NASA studies show that a manned lunar flyby could be achieved within 6 months and an orbital mission within a year. The orbital mission would require $150-200M to complete development of an improved Apollo service module.
The only concrete action to come out of the speech is that NASA are asked to study the technical issues and cost of launching unmanned sample retrieval missions and robotic rovers to the Moon.


May-70
The Selene Board formally asks national governments if they will support a lunar flight on Aurora 7.
Neither British nor French governments raise any objection to the attempt, providing the Selene Board is agreed that it can be done safely.
As this occurred so close to the election, there is an urban myth that the British Government wanted Selene managers to commit to a lunar flight and announce it immediately before the General Election. Although it was undoubtedly mentioned earlier in the year at cabinet and discussed more extensively at the Ministry of Technology, there is no real evidence that any pressure was brought to bear; it would have been far too risky.


Jun-70
At a live televised press conference in Paris, Selene Board chairman Dr. Pierre Foche announces that the existing plans for the Aurora 7 flight in July have been abandoned. The mission is to be replaced with a brief Earth orbit test, still called “Aurora 7” before the spacecraft attempts to fly around the Moon, on a mission to be called "Selene 1". The crew, Commander William Randall and Navigator Henri Poincare (great grandson of the mathematician) have been in training for the flight for some time. A launch is expected in late August, although the public are warned not to be surprised if this is delayed into September.

An experimental version of Roll-Royce’s Orion engine achieves a record sea-level Isp of 300 seconds at a thrust of 444,250lbs, effectively operating at 134% of the original design power. It is not a standard engine as it includes strengthened chamber and nozzle bands as well as redesigned turbines and pump impellers. There are no plans to develop this variant into a production engine, however there is a more modestly uprated 108% version under consideration.

Front pages and news reports around the world are dominated by the Selene announcement.
In France, the sense of patriotic pride is at the forefront (mixed with some anti-US hubris from those on the left). In Britain, reporting varies from the Sun's outrage-inducing "Fly me to the Moon" (the text carefully placed to cover the assets of a well-built young lady), to the Mirror's more touching "Can I come too, Daddy", reporting the words of Cdr Randall's ten year old son John.

In typically dismissive tone, Pravda reports that Britain and France are now seeking to follow in Soviet footsteps, while the United States has not matched the achievements of the brilliant Soviet engineers who continue to lead the way in space exploration.
US media is caught off guard, the announcement came too late for the front pages and there was only one news channel present at the press conference. It is only when network evening news leads with the story that most of America becomes aware of the announcement.
Despite the Project's efforts at international publicity, reporting of Selene has been fairly limited in the US popular media and therefore many Americans are barely aware that there is a "European" (as it is often lazily reported) space program. The fact that this program now plans to send men to the Moon comes as a surprise to many.


Jun-70
Missile S-131 is selected as the launch vehicle for Aurora 7/Selene 1. The natural manufacturing variations on this particular vehicle are favourable, suggesting higher than average performance. It will receive a cherry picked Orion sustainer engine (one that has delivered above average thrust and efficiency when tested) to help maximise the mass it can deliver to Earth orbit.

Edward Heath becomes Britain’s new Prime Minister after a surprise victory for the Conservatives on the 19th June. It is a priority for the new government to improve relations and trade with continental Europe and to ensure Britain is accepted into the Common Market.

An ECPS upper stage completes a full series of ground tests at a SNES test facility near Toulouse. Several technical issues with propellant feed and Hydrogen leaks remain, however these have been reduced to levels that are acceptable for a test programme.

Australian officials decide to delay the launch of their second direct broadcast satellite, Hermes-A2. The first spacecraft is still performing well and has a large fuel reserve remaining, so there is no urgent need to have a spare waiting in orbit. Originally scheduled for October 1970, it is now decided to delay it for a year.
In the UK, preparations for the launch of Hermes-3 are started in earnest. To maintain uninterrupted broadcast of 3 channels, two Hermes satellites must be available for use and it is clear that the fuel supply of Hermes-1 will be exhausted early in 1971.
 
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