The Second Treaty of Amiens: a 'fairer' Treaty of Versailles

Really? When was the OTL second treaty of Amiens?

1802.

1423 had a deal between England/Burgundy/Brittany, 102 was the AAnglo-French peace, and then this one.


As to the OP, I think it's only doable if something goes differently on Brest-Litovsk. Some way to involve the Western Entente, maybe, so German concessions of taking less in the east are matched by not-losing in the west... or alternatively, by Brest-Litovsk being seen as a good model for peace in the west so that peace is a real option immediately after a halfway succesful German offensive.
 
As to the OP, I think it's only doable if something goes differently on Brest-Litovsk. Some way to involve the Western Entente, maybe, so German concessions of taking less in the east are matched by not-losing in the west... or alternatively, by Brest-Litovsk being seen as a good model for peace in the west so that peace is a real option immediately after a halfway succesful German offensive.

If the German give away Alsace-Lorraine mean that they had lost point, no maybe or but.
Here the trick is to limit at the possible max the German loss.

One condition is Ludendoff not being in charge...otherwise reality will never be accepted by Germany.
Second condition is that both side decide to throw off their allies so to stop the war and cut the loss/gain something. (Italy for the Entente and the Ottoman and later the A-H for the CP)
Third condition is that the peace need to be signed earlier as 18 is too late, even if the Spring Offensive is succesfull they need just to wait the arrive of the americans, the German allies are on the verge of collapse and the German goverment still think that they can get away with basically a slap on their wrist.
 
If the German give away Alsace-Lorraine mean that they had lost point, no maybe or but.
Here the trick is to limit at the possible max the German loss.

One condition is Ludendoff not being in charge...otherwise reality will never be accepted by Germany.
Second condition is that both side decide to throw off their allies so to stop the war and cut the loss/gain something. (Italy for the Entente and the Ottoman and later the A-H for the CP)
Third condition is that the peace need to be signed earlier as 18 is too late, even if the Spring Offensive is succesfull they need just to wait the arrive of the americans, the German allies are on the verge of collapse and the German goverment still think that they can get away with basically a slap on their wrist.

Hence my idea to involve Russia. Germany in 1918 was weakening, and the ottomans/Austrians were beaten, but Russia was beaten, ripped asunder, and seemingly falling apart. I can see a German government stomaching not taking as-much in Russia, and losing colonies, but giving up the Elzass while most of Belgium and a chunk of France are occupied?

That requires a wargamer's mind playing with pixels, not that of actual politicians considering the fate of nations.

So, all things considered, the only peace I could see (still requiring tons of other people involved, but I think actual politicians might accept):

1) Arabia gets independence from the Ottomans (not sure of the actual border, anywhere between Iraq/Jordan and Anatolia could serve)
2) Poland gets independence as congress Poland, Finland as more or less the grand Duchy, maybe the Baltic states too (these might have German rulers, though the Baltic might become German outright). Poland becomes a French-style republic?
3) Trieste goes to Italy
4) Germany loses a ton of colonies to Japan/Britain/France
5) Germany pays reparations for the U-boat war, or for the occupation of northern France
6) Bosnia goes (partly) to Serbia?

Now, I don't know how realistic this is, but in essence everyone gets something who still is able to fight. France gets colonies and a Polish ally-hopeful. Italy gets something. Britain removes the German colonial threat, though not the naval (so maybe the reparations should be ships, not money). Germany removes the immediate Russian threat. The USA gets some self-determination in.

Austria is salvageable for Germany, and the Entente can try to remove the commies in Russia. The Ottomans essentially are reduced to Turkey+, but that probably can't be helped given the results of the war.

Big stumbling blocks are the Franco-German border (neither side can truly stomach any solution - and France is winning but Germany SEEMS to be winning) and Italy (wants more). Plus, of course, the fact that time seems on the Entente side, as in this deal neither side gives up anything of true importance that isn't already lost.

So to get it through, you'd need some massive German success coupled with a severe case of 'brains' on their side to go with it (i.e. knowing this is the best they can push for, and delay is worse; but that seems possible given the state of A-H and the Ottomans). This peace secures most of Austria-Hungary as one or more German puppets, after all.
 
Re Samoa, I think Britain would have to be very sure of itself to give that back. New Zealand occupied the territory at the outbreak of the War and then held it for half a century. I don't think the NZ people or government would be happy to give it back to the far off Germans after 4 years of NZ struggle in Europe.
 
Ignoring all the rest and just my thoughts on Tsingtao:
.... Yeah, that's not happening. They're not getting back the Marianas or other random islands either. The Japanese aren't going to give back their only conquests and the Germans have no way of forcing them.

It's a internationally agreed treaty so it doesn't matter what the Japanese think about their conquests or not...

Well that's gonna be fun. Japan will demand them as their reward for participating in WW1. If they don't get these lands it was all for nothing and Japan is hindered in its long term strategic goals. They won't just randomly give them back. So who's going to force them to give them up for the sake of their enemy Germany? ...

I personally think that Japan can be convinced to give back Tsingtao if they are allowed to keep all the Pacific Islands + a good ratio in an ATL naval treaty. (OTL Japan returned Tsingtao to China in 1923 under international pressure)
In ATL maybe an added benefit would be that Tsingtao is returned to Germany as a sign of good favour since it a) will be a natural ally against Russia b) could ally China after losing Tsingtao and make life for the Japanese on the continent very difficult.

Just my two cents, I personally think any negotiated peace (that gives up german territories) by the third OHL to be ASB, especially after victory in the summer of 1918. Though the Entente forces would probably agree to such a treaty (but enforceability on the eastern front is highly questionable).
 
3) Trieste goes to Italy

Trieste is too important as it's the only real port the Empire own, it's more probable that Italy will be given Trentino and a protectorate over Albania



So to get it through, you'd need some massive German success coupled with a severe case of 'brains' on their side to go with it (i.e. knowing this is the best they can push for, and delay is worse; but that seems possible given the state of A-H and the Ottomans). This peace secures most of Austria-Hungary as one or more German puppets, after all.

Having the Germans (and Austria-Hungary) acting smart is difficult with the current administration for this reason i see Ludendoff hit the road as an important part of the Pod.
Maybe promising a referendum on Alsace-Lorraine and a peacefull retreat (no spitefull 'scorched earth') can ease the French enough, still there is the need of a mix of loss and win for both side to make things even and considering the prospective of a truce the lesser evil
 
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