The Second Peninsular War or The Spanish Front

Basic hand-wavey premise:

Despite a bad start from the Republicans, a stroke of luck comes, when on 5th October 1936, 4 day after being declared Generalisimo of the National army and head of state, he is killed when he is kicked from his horse, breaking his neck. The shock of this, not long after the death of Sanjurjo, lead to the splintering of the Nationalists armies into essentially independant fiefs, loyal only to their commander. With the news of this, a more unified Republic is able to begin to counter attack, aiming to divide and conquer the Nationalists 'kingdoms'. With the help from several British and French regular army divisions disgusied under the banners of the International Brigade, the Republican forces are able to enflict significant defeats on the disarrayed nationalist forces. Even coming so close, in 1937, as to miss capturing the Condor legion by mere minutes as the last airplanes were evacuated, after being ordered to return by Hitler. But the germans would still leave their mark as the flew over the town of Guernica on their escape route, they released all of their excess bombs and explosives on to the un-suspecting town, killing hundreds of civilians.

By 1938 the nationalists had surrendered and the fledgling democracy, under the leadership of Azaña once more, began to return some semblance of normality. Despite sporadic nationalist guerrilla actions in and around Salamanca and Cadiz, and also in Morrocco (Still a Nationalist stronghold) and the Baleric islands, Spain would remain relativly stable and quiet for another 2 years.

In September 1939 Hitler invaded Poland, dragging the world and Spain into the Second World War. With his armies taking France in late June 1940, and Britain evacuating bloodily at the Calais pocket, Azaña looked to his borders with France. Moving his battle-hardened troops to the Pyrenees, later joined by elements of the Free French, evacuating from the South of France, he would secure Spain's position as the Last Sentinal of Europe.

Soon enough, Azaña's fears came true, as the Wermacht, fresh from it's victory in france, with a month of recuperation, moved South, there joined by the Italians and a hand picked battalion of Vichy Facists. on on the 10th of August crossed the border into Spain. Determined to support the Spanish in their fight, Winston Churchill, freshly sworn in after the capitulation of Norway to the Nazis, sent the majority of remaining British, French and Commenwealth, stationed on the Home Islands to Spain from then first known as the 1st British Army, and then the 1st International Army, when Spanish regiments were seconded to it's command.

Despite the stiff resistance, helped by the experiance gained by the Allies in the Civil War of the Blitzkrieg-style of combat favoured by the Wermacht and the mountainous and defensable terrain, the Germans still managed to push stifly on, taking Pamlona on the 12th and Bilbao, and Santander a few days later. Even in the south the Italians and Vichy French managed to capture Barcelona on the 14th, after one of the most controversial withdrawals by Republic forces defending the city, later justified as "an orderly retret in the face of superior enemy numbers".

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And that's about where I got to in the evolution of my thoughts, so any suggestions, ideas, comments, on how a Spanish front would affect the War, the Battles for the Mediterranian and for North Africa etc, etc.

This is basically just a way for me to get more ideas to continue my map of the Axis invasion of Spain that I posted in the Map Thread here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=2737553&postcount=9545

Now remember my PoD's etc are pretty much just hand wavery and not really researched, so any flaws in my reasoning can be pointed out but will mostly likely be ignored for reasons of "It seemed cool" :p

Also my search was messing up, so if there were any past threads of this sort of area, please let me know.
 

Eurofed

Banned
By 1938 the nationalists had surrendered and the fledgling democracy

Which "fledging democracy" ? :eek: By 1938, Communists basically run the show in Republican Spain. If you want to save Spanish fledgling democracy, you have to butterfly the SCW out. Otherwise, it's going to be either a fascist or communist dictatorship.

In September 1939 Hitler invaded Poland, dragging the world and Spain into the Second World War.

A Communist Spain has strong chances of butterflying British and French guarantees to Poland away, and hence WWII as we know it. France and Britain now have a Stalinist outpost in their backyard, what Hitler does to Czechoslovakia and Poland seems rather less important, and fascism is less threatening if it loses the SCW.
 
Which "fledging democracy" ? :eek: By 1938, Communists basically run the show in Republican Spain. If you want to save Spanish fledgling democracy, you have to butterfly the SCW out. Otherwise, it's going to be either a fascist or communist dictatorship.
I am butterflying them into at least being restrained. Maybe the increases British/French presence as a mediator or something. But for all intents and purposes at the moment Spain is just a quite left leaning liberal democracy (ish). I'm thinking that as the invasion goes on they slide further back into dictatorship, and by the end of the war they be become a fully fledged socialist/communist dictatorship. Chances for the Trotskyists to take power? I'm thinking of them having more independance from Moscow,


A Communist Spain has strong chances of butterflying British and French guarantees to Poland away, and hence WWII as we know it. France and Britain now have a Stalinist outpost in their backyard, what Hitler does to Czechoslovakia and Poland seems rather less important, and fascism is less threatening if it loses the SCW.

Hmm. That's a point but we'll go with the butterfly net. In 1938/39 in TTL Spain is still pretty much a mess and the Stalinists aren't as powerful. Or at least they have some counterweight present so they're not seen as a communist threat, just more radically left. The propoganda of the civil war being a stuggle between the
opressed poor against the fascist and authoritarian rich help lessen the fear of socialism (or something). Whereas Fascism is seen as an evil thing when the horrors of Guernica and Nationalist war crimes etc are revealed at the end of the war.

And I know this is all very hand wavey. I just want to see what would happen next.
 

Goldstein

Banned
Which "fledging democracy" ? :eek: By 1938, Communists basically run the show in Republican Spain. If you want to save Spanish fledgling democracy, you have to butterfly the SCW out. Otherwise, it's going to be either a fascist or communist dictatorship.



A Communist Spain has strong chances of butterflying British and French guarantees to Poland away, and hence WWII as we know it. France and Britain now have a Stalinist outpost in their backyard, what Hitler does to Czechoslovakia and Poland seems rather less important, and fascism is less threatening if it loses the SCW.

"A communist Spain" is probably an AH misconception comparable to the succesful sealion. You better say that the stalinists tried to run the show and failed miserabily. Or that alienating the most moderate sectors of the popular front was a very difficult task.
Not that it is totally impossible, but a commie Spain is not the natural result given the circumstances. I am more inclined to think that a Republican victory would have resulted in a non-alligned, socialist-leaning democracy with an unified party or a permanent big coalition holding the political hegemony, something more related to 20th century Mexico than to a stalinist country or a communist country in its OTL sense.

My point against Colonelgoth's premise is that the chances of a Republican Spain to enter the war, should the SCW still happen, were near to zero.

For a start, Spain was a neutral country, so Hitler invading Poland is not going to put Spain on board.

Also, Spain was recovering from a destructive and fratricide war, and even though our leaders seem to be congenitally stupid, they are probably not stupid enough to declare war on the Axis in the middle of a postwar.

Finally, the sad reality is that Hitler never gave a flying fuck about Spain, nor saw it as a menace, so he is not going to invade it without a good casus belli (like Spain being an allied country, something that is not going to happen.)
 
Given a couple of British and French divisions in Spain - Means experienced veterans to booster the forces in 1940 France.

Even if you Hand wave the fall of France to be the same, It took Germany 6 months to recover from the wear and tear of Poland. It will take months after France falls.

It is going to take those same month to negotiate with Vichy to allow German forces to move south to the Pyrenees.

This means the invasion of Spain is postponed till Spring 1941. No Barbarossa.

Unlike Russia, Spain is a straight shot across the Atlantic for Lend Lease.
These American supplies will be going not only to the French and British, but to Units from every Spanish American nation. ?Post War Ramifications?

Britain and the US will put pressure on Portugal to be allowed to base there. once Portugal sees the lend lease Goodies, It probably agrees.

The Spanish road net is terrible. You are going to be moving horse drawn Supply Wagons over the same poorly Maintained Dirt roads Napoleon's Quartermasters used.

Unlike the Plains of Russia, The Mountains of Spain is poor Tank Country. No large Tank Battles, just lots of Little Nickel and Dime running Battles.
This means your Tanker Supplies are also broken up into Nickel & Dime groups, that are easier to attack.
 

Thande

Donor
My main concern would be the idea that events re. Czechoslovakia and Poland proceed exactly as OTL after the Nationalist defeat; I don't think that's very likely, especially if (as seems likely) the Nazis suspect the direct Anglo-French involvement in the SCW.

Also, what's Salazar's Portugal doing in all this?

Hitler's invasion of Spain in this scenario...not that likely, but could it be done for the same reasons as the attack on Norway?
 
"A communist Spain" is probably an AH misconception comparable to the succesful sealion. You better say that the stalinists tried to run the show and failed miserabily. Or that alienating the most moderate sectors of the popular front was a very difficult task.
Not that it is totally impossible, but a commie Spain is not the natural result given the circumstances. I am more inclined to think that a Republican victory would have resulted in a non-alligned, socialist-leaning democracy with an unified party or a permanent big coalition holding the political hegemony, something more related to 20th century Mexico than to a stalinist country or a communist country in its OTL sense.

That's pretty much what I'm going for in this, although the coalition isn't particularly united, it is united and relatively stable.

My point against Colonelgoth's premise is that the chances of a Republican Spain to enter the war, should the SCW still happen, were near to zero.

For a start, Spain was a neutral country, so Hitler invading Poland is not going to put Spain on board.

Also, Spain was recovering from a destructive and fratricide war, and even though our leaders seem to be congenitally stupid, they are probably not stupid enough to declare war on the Axis in the middle of a postwar.

Finally, the sad reality is that Hitler never gave a flying fuck about Spain, nor saw it as a menace, so he is not going to invade it without a good casus belli (like Spain being an allied country, something that is not going to happen.)

After the war (and before 1940) Spain in this TL is (or is actually meant to be) technically neutral, but is like Ireland in that it supports the Allies, and the French troops who retreated across the Pyrenees are given full aid and assistance. (I realised, I wrote it differently. I'll change that)

My reasoning for Hitler to invaded is as an act of ideological revenge, against what he sees as dirt-poor, peasant communists. Kind of "Hey Hitler, he's crazy right? Well why not..."
 
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Why do the British and French send regular military divisions disguised as "International Brigades"?

I didn't want it to be such open support. I still wanted it to be a bit of a 'Proxy-war' Don't ask me how the British/French allowed the to go, I didn't figure that part out. We'll go with Thande's idea, it seems more winnable, so they give more support.

My main concern would be the idea that events re. Czechoslovakia and Poland proceed exactly as OTL after the Nationalist defeat; I don't think that's very likely, especially if (as seems likely) the Nazis suspect the direct Anglo-French involvement in the SCW.

I don't want them to go exactly as OTL, just similar enough. This though is beyond my will to research/stored knowledge.

Also, what's Salazar's Portugal doing in all this?

Hitler's invasion of Spain in this scenario...not that likely, but could it be done for the same reasons as the attack on Norway?

Being Portuguese apparently. I'm going with they refuse to stop being neutral, but are helping the Nationalist guerrillas.

And for the Iron in Asturias/Basque Country? Could use that as the Official reason, or the secondary objectives after Hitler is Crazy foo'.
 
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Basic hand-wavey premise:


Soon enough, Azaña's fears came true, as the Wermacht, fresh from it's victory in france, with a month of recuperation, moved South, there joined by the Italians and a hand picked battalion of Vichy Facists. on on the 10th of August crossed the border into Spain. Determined to support the Spanish in their fight, Winston Churchill, freshly sworn in after the capitulation of Norway to the Nazis, sent the majority of remaining British, French and Commenwealth, stationed on the Home Islands to Spain from then first known as the 1st British Army, and then the 1st International Army, when Spanish regiments were seconded to it's command.
Why would Vichy invade? Vichy was nominally neutral (although not nearly as much so as the US and especially Admiral Leahy wanted to believe), and didn't ever (AFAIK) attack the allies unless they were attacked first...
 
Why would Vichy invade? Vichy was nominally neutral (although not nearly as much so as the US and especially Admiral Leahy wanted to believe), and didn't ever (AFAIK) attack the allies unless they were attacked first...

Because Hitler wants extra troops and he doesn't trust the Italian prowess fully, or maybe as a sort of "prove that you can be a good little puppet regime" kinda thing so he hand picks their most Fascist leaning ones.
 
Also, what's Salazar's Portugal doing in all this?
Being Portuguese apparently. I'm going with they refuse to stop being neutral, but are helping the Nationalist guerrillas.
Salazar would help the Nationalist while he could, but always keeping his neutrality, unless forced by the Allies to pick their side.
Britain and the US will put pressure on Portugal to be allowed to base there. once Portugal sees the lend lease Goodies, It probably agrees.
Basing rights could be obtained but only after the allies are showing superiority (Salazar was an Anglophile, but also simpathetic to Fascism, and an incredibly oportunistic person).

If the far-left in Spain has been weakened enough and is under strong control of the moderate elements in the Popular Front, and the allies overall strength is markedly superior to the Axis, it's probably easier to get Portugal into the allies by replacing Salazar by someone more moderate from his regime, enabling the Allies to get full cooperation (with the Allies and to a certain degree Republican Spain) and a slightly easier job in figthing the Axis in Spain.
 
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