At first it did anyway. It did give him a rally-around-the-flag effect that helped him beat Kennedy in the early primaries. It started to hurt him as it dragged on more, though. The best scenario for Carter might have been an Iranian Hostage Crisis that goes on for a certain amount of time and then is resolved with him getting the credit for it.Contrary to popular belief, the Iranian Hostage Crisis actually helped Carter rather than hurt him, especially in the Democratic primaries.
Here are some ideas:
-No Kennedy Crisis
-Iranian Hostage Crisis successfully resolved
-Long drawn out GOP primary in which Reagan doesn't win.
You don't have to have a HUGE POD for this, just have Reagan do worse in the debates or come off as an extremist. Carter lead in the polls up until the debates.
Kennedy would've run anyways, he makes it very clear that this was about grudge matches and ideology (an ironic reversal of 12 years prior, as I've said elsewhere) in True Compass. Can Carter win, even without the domestic and foreign problems? No, because he was a poor leader- constantly blaming the electorate for his own weak leadership, as evidenced by the malaise speech. Nor did he have the forcefulness to enact his own DLC agenda and tell the Watergate Babies exactly where they could shove it, using GOP votes to override. He was completely clueless on foreign affairs, though if he closed the Iranian Embassy in November 1978 things would've gone better. Bush would've exposed Carter's foreign affairs problems without batting an eyelash, and his monetarist fiscal beliefs would be impossible for Carter to attempt to ridicule like he did voodoo.
Try to keep the ideological sniping to a minimum please?
hmmm, well Carter V. Reagan was only the 3rd such debate, 1960, than after Nixon got beaten (largely because of the TV debate) no one did a debate till 1976 Carter V. Ford, so easily Carter and/or Reagan say no to the debate, Carter never looses his edge.
Now, let's conjure up some PoD's.
-Kennedy lets healthcare go through, and endorses Carter for his re-election.
-A tougher primary battle for the nomination leaves Reagan with a few scars.
-No debates; or a debate in which Reagan comes of as an extremist.
-No John Anderson.
-Inflation hits in 1981, rather than before the election OTL.
-No 3 Mile Island.